Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at The Stump reports this week’s Essential Research poll shows the Coalition with a two-party lead for the first time since the agency commenced polling in early 2008. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 46 per cent, for a two-party lead of 51-49, while Labor is down two points to 39 per cent. Essential continues to show an unusually low vote for the Greens, who are steady on 8 per cent. Keane has more on supplementary questions to do with issues of concern and the best party to handle them.

UPDATE: Full Essential report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

573 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 12
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  2. [DoyleyPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 4:42 pm | PermalinkI am not so stupid to realise that the last six to eight months could have been a lot better for labor. Some decisions regarding policy and tactics left me shaking my head but i really think it is now time to move on.
    By all means have a solid, warts and all review as to where we go from here but I really wish people like Howe and Richardson would just pull their heads in. At the moment their public comments are not doing labor any good. By continuing to push the “Kevin is to blame ‘ line just gets the MSM up and running and does not let the government move on. Richardson is clearly backing Howes and I wonder which seat they will line him up for in 2013. Hopefully they will get him to stand for the president of Fiji !
    ]

    Agree totally and it also applies to those posting here – think VERY carefully how you word your posts as they DO play out in voterland – remember who lurks here – not just pollies and their staffers, but members of the MSM who delight in relaying “ALP Disunity” and who will twist it in ways you cannot imagine.

  3. [AdamPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 4:43 pm | PermalinkConfessions @ 86,
    Someone who either works for the party or is a rusted on supporter parroting the party line.
    ]

    I suppose people like Marg, Astrobleme Pegasus etc don’t fit in the same category you criticise ??

  4. must confess i thought on line poling may be something of the future.
    but as one enrolls to be emailed any one of any persuasion can enrol.
    its not like ringing ramdom numbers, anythoughts on this.

  5. [Someone who either works for the party or is a rusted on supporter parroting the party line.]

    Thank you.

    In my experience of various blogs, your definition applies far more to Greens voters than it does to either Labor or Liberal.

  7. It seems the Indigenous Community are justy as divided on the Referendum issue:

    [ 7NewsFanPage Unofficial NewsFeed
    Referendum shows nation’s maturity: Gooda (AAP): Mick Gooda says recognition of indigenous people in the Austral… http://bit.ly/dffopT
    5 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply »
    7NewsFanPage Unofficial NewsFeed
    Referendum labelled a ‘political stunt’ (AAP): Indigenous activist Sam Watson says a referendum on recognising i… http://bit.ly/buUIc1
    5 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

  9. confessions@100

    Can anyone point out examples of green supporters here criticising the greens
    or have they just drank the Kool Aid ?

    That’s my point. People who throw around the word ‘hack’ as an insult to those who vote for either of the two major parties seem incapable of applying the term to Greens voters.

    I cannot think of *anyone* from the greens who regularly criticise the greens
    at all. Quite the opposite they throw tantrums whenever anyone has a go
    at the greens.

  10. [confessionsPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 4:49 pm | PermalinkSomeone who either works for the party or is a rusted on supporter parroting the party line.
    Thank you.
    In my experience of various blogs, your definition applies far more to Greens voters than it does to either Labor or Liberal.
    ]

    Now you’ve done it – I can hear the email lists being set into action as the defenders of the Good Ship Greens decend onto PB 🙂

  12. [Agree totally and it also applies to those posting here – think VERY carefully how you word your posts as they DO play out in voterland – remember who lurks here – not just pollies and their staffers, but members of the MSM who delight in relaying “ALP Disunity” and who will twist it in ways you cannot imagine.]

    Frank why not email How es and tell him what you think, and any one else who has a way with words.
    And do you know i dont think it was a bad campaign, i think Julia must of felt a bit like Alice i am sure some one can come with an analogy of what i am trying to say.
    Any one that has read Alice in wonderland will know what i mean i am reading to my grandchildren at the moment must confess to loving that book.

    I often think about how it would be written now in a modern world that seems to have gone crazy.

    the tea party the game of cards the mad hatter all those characters come to life for me in a modern setting.

  14. [Someone who either works for the party or is a rusted on supporter parroting the party line.

    Thank you.

    In my experience of various blogs, your definition applies far more to Greens voters than it does to either Labor or Liberal.]

    lol I present to you, exhibit A.

  15. [I cannot think of *anyone* from the greens who regularly criticise the greens
    at all.]

    Or are critical period, never mind regularly. I don’t particularly mind that, but then they attack others for doing exactly what they themselves do.

  16. i off now i would suggest you ignore ADAM the chatter on here the last two night left a lot to be desired. be true and hold the faith no matter what

  17. [I suppose people like Marg, Astrobleme Pegasus etc don’t fit in the same category you criticise ??]

    I’m not familiar with those people so can’t say but yes I’m comtemptuous of all party hacks as I made pefectly clear.

  18. [AdamPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 4:58 pm | PermalinkSomeone who either works for the party or is a rusted on supporter parroting the party line.
    Thank you.
    In my experience of various blogs, your definition applies far more to Greens voters than it does to either Labor or Liberal.
    lol I present to you, exhibit A.
    ]

    Describing yourself I see.

    At least I don’t hide my affilations and post under my full name – And I stick by my opinions.

  21. [i off now i would suggest you ignore ADAM the chatter on here the last two night left a lot to be desired. be true and hold the faith no matter what]

    This stuff is what I was talking about.

  24. @122

    In the Age Property at the weekend (I think) was an article saying how many “Shanghai buyers” were snapping up seafront investment properties in Australia. Australia very safe investment, rental can be used to pay for education in Aus.
    Do PB-ers consider overseas investment having an effect on housing prices? (I must add, if I were in the market for a new house, a “seafront” property would now be way above my league anyway.

  25. whateverpedia#80

    I agree. FHBG made housing more expensive, and thereby increased size of mortgages. What gets me is that a housing loan is for 30 years. Interest rates are going to be variable throughout the life of the loan. At best, people should budget for an interest rate of at least 11%.

  26. On the question of housing affordability, I think negative gearing should be stopped. You couldn’t do it retrospectively but from say, 1st December no property bought could be negatively geared.
    The “Aussie Dream” of your own home is expensive because too many people buy property not to live but to make profit from an investment

  27. [Describing yourself I see.

    At least I don’t hide my affilations and post under my full name – And I stick by my opinions.]

    Not me Frank, you. I’m not affiliated with the Greens and have never had any involvement with the party (or any political party) whatsoever. Your opinion is whatever the ALP party line is.

    Like I’ve said to you before Labor could come out tomorrow and announce all boat people will be shot on arrival or unemployed people will be thrown in prison and you’d defend it. That’s the difference between you and me Frank.

  29. Doyley
    [I am not so stupid to realise that the last six to eight months could have been a lot better for labor. Some decisions regarding policy and tactics left me shaking my head but i really think it is now time to move on.]
    IMHO, better for their opinions to be aired now.
    Plus, Richo’s statements really take away from the Rabbott who all the media thought ran a so-called magnificent campaign. If the ALP’s are the worst in history what does that say about the Coalition? The Rabbott is not the PM.

  30. [AdamPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 5:10 pm | PermalinkDescribing yourself I see.
    At least I don’t hide my affilations and post under my full name – And I stick by my opinions.
    Not me Frank, you. I’m not affiliated with the Greens and have never had any involvement with the party (or any political party) whatsoever. Your opinion is whatever the ALP party line is.
    Like I’ve said to you before Labor could come out tomorrow and announce all boat people will be shot on arrival or unemployed people will be thrown in prison and you’d defend it. That’s the difference between you and me Frank.
    ]

    Don’t be so stupid.

    I KNOW Labor wouldn’t that far and you know it.

    Now go and sip on you Soy Latte.

  32. victoria @ 125:

    There was an article in the West Australian that someone linked to the other day stating that house prices in Perth had dropped dramatically, and that was causing rents to fall as well.

    I would’ve said the mining boom would boost house prices, but that doesn’t explain why Perth housing would be falling atm.

  34. [Really? How is presenting my own experience “parrotting the party line”?]

    PB. Don’t play dumb Confessions because you’re not. You regurgitate the Labor talking points and attack points (of both the Libs & Greens) ad nauseum.

  35. confessions

    Really. I thought WA house prices were still going through the roof because of the mining boom. That surprises me.

  36. [DeePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 5:13 pm | PermalinkDoyley
    I am not so stupid to realise that the last six to eight months could have been a lot better for labor. Some decisions regarding policy and tactics left me shaking my head but i really think it is now time to move on.
    IMHO, better for their opinions to be aired now.
    Plus, Richo’s statements really take away from the Rabbott who all the media thought ran a so-called magnificent campaign. If the ALP’s are the worst in history what does that say about the Coalition? The Rabbott is not the PM.
    ]

    Exactly.

    And if Richo wants to put his money where his mouth is – he would apply to become the ALP National Secretary and do his bit within the party – not stand on the outside and snipe.

    Remember Richo has worked for 2GB – that should tell you something and was a power-broker of the ALP Right – yet those who are praising himn DESPISE the ALP Right.

  40. RBA might have done labor a medium to long term favor by increasing rates in November.

    Better for labor to lose a bit of bark two months into its term rather than long term damage caused by out of control inflation and monthly rate rises towards the middle to end of the three years.

    I still believe the polls will take six to nine months to show any realistic trend and I still believe it will be in labors favor.

  41. [At least I don’t hide my affilations and post under my full name – And I stick by my opinions.]

    I at least use my real first name, where is your attack on “confessions”?

    btw I don’t care what name people give themselves on blogs.

  42. [my sayPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 5:17 pm | PermalinkFrank you hold with what you beleive dont be intimidated by nonsense statements
    good on you.
    ]

    Don’t worry, being Disabled has taught me not to take bulldust from people and to stick it up them when they need it – even if I do step on some toes.

  44. [DoyleyPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 5:19 pm | PermalinkRBA might have done labor a medium to long term favor by increasing rates in November.
    Better for labor to lose a bit of bark two months into its term rather than long term damage caused by out of control inflation and monthly rate rises towards the middle to end of the three years.
    I still believe the polls will take six to nine months to show any realistic trend and I still believe it will be in labors favor.
    ]

    Agreed 100%

  45. [122 victoria
    Posted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 5:04 pm | Permalink
    Auction clearances two year low this weekend in Melbourne]

    there had not been an interest rate for 6 months, and if there is a slump there may be lower prices.
    I cannot beleive the prices you pay over there i know of weatherboard house in an inner suburb of Melbourne that went for over 1 million, i looked at it on line it would may be fetch 400 Th’s here. while people keep paying big money then prices will rise,
    people just want pay that type of money here for homes.

  47. [bemusedPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 5:20 pm | PermalinkDiog @ 120
    Brilliant!!
    Landeryou is just a grub.
    ]

    Funny how the Greens opraise him when he goes after Labor, but squeal when he goes after that protected species known as Greenus Moralis Superious 🙂

  48. my say

    Housing has become expensive everywhere. Difficult to find a property in outer suburban Melbourne for less than $500,000.00. How are young people going to afford that?

  49. [ still believe the polls will take six to nine months to show any realistic trend and I still believe it will be in labors favor. ]

    i said last month i thought Febuary or around march, and Doyley is right he is one of the most sensible posters here i beleive very realistic.

  50. Adam:

    Recounting my experiences of blog commenters (such as at LP for eg) is not “parrotting the party line” – your definition, remember, and your accusation. Not mine.

    As for:

    [You regurgitate the Labor talking points and attack points (of both the Libs & Greens) ad nauseum.]

    Oh well, You obviously don’t read my comments and so are simply making unfounded assumptions. At least you’ve confirmed for me what I suspected of you all along.

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