Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at The Stump reports this week’s Essential Research poll shows the Coalition with a two-party lead for the first time since the agency commenced polling in early 2008. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 46 per cent, for a two-party lead of 51-49, while Labor is down two points to 39 per cent. Essential continues to show an unusually low vote for the Greens, who are steady on 8 per cent. Keane has more on supplementary questions to do with issues of concern and the best party to handle them.

UPDATE: Full Essential report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

573 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  2. Also the children stay home a lot longer now also, and that puts a strain on the the budget.

    I saw a story about grandparents looking after thier grandchildren permanently and not being paid well, i would think the gov. should pay the grandparents in these cases child endowment, i beleive there is a lot of people doing this, i think the gov. should pick up on this one.

  4. [Frank Calabrese
    Posted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 5:46 pm
    Not sure about the former, but in Northam the local Nationals Member Brendon Grylls is in favour of the Detention Centre, while the Federal Member Judi Moylan, despite her earlier opposition to the Lib’s AS policy has somehow sided with the locals.]
    So Moylan is all for refugee activism… right up until it lands on her doorstep.

    My estimation of her has considerably waned.

  6. Adam
    Posted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 5:15 pm | Permalink

    ‘ Really? How is presenting my own experience “parrotting the party line”? ‘

    “PB. Don’t play dumb Confessions because you’re not. You regurgitate the Labor talking points and attack points (of both the Libs & Greens) ad nauseum.”

    Adam

    Ladys here can handle themselves w/o
    But you’ve carried on this false nmonsense about one Lady blogger here for hours thats now over top

    So ease of , leave alone , and take me on as i dont hav a Ladys tact or decorums deeliing with this kind of persistyent PB attacks on one person

    I AM a Labor Party Member so put an arguement I’m a hack with evidense

  7. [So Moylan is all for refugee activism… right up until it lands on her doorstep.

    My estimation of her has considerably waned.]
    Gutless when it counted most! 😥

  8. [DeePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 5:58 pm | PermalinkFrank
    How long have you been in a wheelchair?
    ]

    Born with Spina Bifida – could walk with a limp from 3-12 till my hip dislocated – had the op but found it very hard to walk so in a chair from about 14 onwards.

  9. Ron
    [So ease of , leave alone , and take me on as i dont hav a Ladys tact or decorums deeliing with this kind of persistyent PB attacks on one person

    I AM a Labor Party Member so put an arguement I’m a hack with evidense]
    Precious! :angel:

  11. [DeePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 6:02 pm | PermalinkSo Moylan is all for refugee activism… right up until it lands on her doorstep.
    My estimation of her has considerably waned.
    Gutless when it counted most!
    ]

    She was rabboting the party line about no consultation etc.

    Northam and surrounds are Liberal heartland.

  12. Frank
    [Born with Spina Bifida – could walk with a limp from 3-12 till my hip dislocated – had the op but found it very hard to walk so in a chair from about 14 onwards.]
    Are you a member of the Disable Association?

  13. [210 margPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 6:04 pm | PermalinkWhat dirt on The Greens?…have you found some yet?
    spit it out we’ve been waiting a long time.
    ]

    Lack of personal hyigene is one area – especially in the hair area and those dreadlocks 🙂

  14. [Ladys here can handle themselves w/o
    But you’ve carried on this false nmonsense about one Lady blogger here for hours thats now over top

    So ease of , leave alone , and take me on as i dont hav a Ladys tact or decorums deeliing with this kind of persistyent PB attacks on one person

    I AM a Labor Party Member so put an arguement I’m a hack with evidense]

    WTF? Are you trying to infer I’m sexist? What about when I was ‘attacking’ (try questioning) Frank the other week? I know you’re a party hack Ron, at least you and Frank admit it.

  15. [DeePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 6:05 pm | PermalinkFrank
    Born with Spina Bifida – could walk with a limp from 3-12 till my hip dislocated – had the op but found it very hard to walk so in a chair from about 14 onwards.
    Are you a member of the Disable Association?
    ]

    not really, I’ve found those types of organisation to be more anti- Labor than the Greens – I was banned off one list during the Welfare to Work debate cos I dared say that the ALP were the only party which helped PWD’s.

  17. [posting this kind of sleeze against respected ex Labor minister Landeryou , who via his site exposes Greens uneconamic and cynical popularism because you dont like th truth]

    Ron, Andrew Landeryou runs Vexnews, not Bill. Bill, the respected ex Labor minister, has the misfortune to be Andrew’s father.

    Andrew is a different kettle of fish altogether, who repeatedly attacks Gillard using similar smear tactics to those he serves up to the Greens and the Libs. See this one, for example, in which he sought to link her to both pedophilia and the nazis during the federal election campaign.

    Andrew Landeryou is a great fan of Andrew Bolt (and vice versa). Andrew Landeryou thinks even The Age is a nest of Labor vipers. Andrew Landeryou is NOT someone who deserves any support from a labor supporter.

    This is one case where you certainly can’t judge the son by considering the virtues of his far more honourable father, I’m afraid.

  19. [
    Andrew Landeryou is a great fan of Andrew Bolt (and vice versa). Andrew Landeryou thinks even The Age is a nest of Labor vipers. Andrew Landeryou is NOT someone who deserves any support from a labor supporter.
    ]

    Rod, from what I gather, Landeryou thinks The Age is a nest of Green / Far left vipers.

  20. [not really, I’ve found those types of organisation to be more anti- Labor than the Greens – I was banned off one list during the Welfare to Work debate cos I dared say that the ALP were the only party which helped PWD’s.]

    Which you know is complete and utter BS.

  22. [So Moylan is all for refugee activism… right up until it lands on her doorstep.]

    From memory she said she thought the govt should consult more before announcing these things. I don’t recall her saying outright that she was opposed to housing AS there. I could be wrong though.

  24. Frank
    [not really, I’ve found those types of organisation to be more anti- Labor]
    That’s a surprise. Our lifelong friend has been nominated for the ministerial award & he is Labor to the core.

  25. [AdamPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 6:14 pm | Permalinknot really, I’ve found those types of organisation to be more anti- Labor than the Greens – I was banned off one list during the Welfare to Work debate cos I dared say that the ALP were the only party which helped PWD’s.
    Which you know is complete and utter BS.
    ]

    no, I think it’s quite correct.

    I trust Labor more than any other party when it comes to dealing with PWD.

  26. [DeePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 6:16 pm | PermalinkFrank
    not really, I’ve found those types of organisation to be more anti- Labor
    That’s a surprise. Our lifelong friend has been nominated for the ministerial award & he is Labor to the core.
    ]

    Depends on the organisation though – I’ve found quite a few to be more concerned about their PR and fundraising image than actually sticking up for their clients.

  28. If NewsPoll comes out tonight with a good result for the Coalition it will just add to their born-to-rule frustration and encourage them to go more and more on the short term populist approach.
    For the long game, that will not be a disadvantage to Labor.

  29. [at least you and Frank admit it.]

    By your own definition I’d be very surprised if Ron and Frank (and Psephos when he’s around) weren’t the only commenters here who would qualify as ‘hacks’. There is certainly no objective evidence from the comments here that the site is “full of Labor hacks” as you’ve noted in the past.

    I also see you said you’ve only just “re-engaged” with PB after a long absence. In which case you’ve missed earlier this year, the middle of this year, and the election campaign itself to see most Labor voters (incl me) being highly critical of the government. Perhaps it would be sensible to see the whole picture before condemning people, rather than labelling them in highly judgemental fashion without evidence?

  30. Unsurprisingly Andrew Bolt slams the proposed alterations to the constitution, regarding Indigenous people

    [
    Faltering and under pressure from even her own side to deliver vision and leadership, Prime Minister Julia Gillard can only think of the most empty symbolism:

    AUSTRALIANS will within the next three years vote in a referendum on whether to recognise indigenous people in the Constitution. The plan to recognise indigenous Australians in the Constitution was announced today by Julia Gillard.

    This is, of course, pure racism. Tragically, it will actually cause more division and resentment than it purports to heal. Nor will it improve the life of a single Aborigine, other than, perhaps, two or three involved in constitutional law and UN delegations.

    But as long as Gillard seems to have vision, who cares, right?
    ]

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/

  31. [no, I think it’s quite correct.

    I trust Labor more than any other party when it comes to dealing with PWD.]

    Yeah okay, so how about Labor continuing the Howard stuff with requiring people to sign up to the Disability Job Networks and to meet all their mutual obligation requirements? How about intending to bring in welfare quarantining for people on the DSP next year unless they’re able to prove they’re not vulnerable?

    Labor don’t give a stuff about the most vulnerable people in society so much so it could be argued they have even more disdain for them than Howard did.

  32. [Rod, just realised that is what you may have been saying?]

    Landeryou (Andrew, not his father) regards anyone from Gillard heading leftwards as beyond the pale, madcyril. His connections even with the Labor right seem to be long gone and he claims no party memberships these days. As far as The Age goes he seems to vary his position between it being a nest of Green vipers and a nest of Red Labor Left (of the Gillardian sub species) vipers.

  33. [231 AdamPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 6:26 pm | Permalinkno, I think it’s quite correct.
    I trust Labor more than any other party when it comes to dealing with PWD.
    Yeah okay, so how about Labor continuing the Howard stuff with requiring people to sign up to the Disability Job Networks and to meet all their mutual obligation requirements? How about intending to bring in welfare quarantining for people on the DSP next year unless they’re able to prove they’re not vulnerable?
    Labor don’t give a stuff about the most vulnerable people in society so much so it could be argued they have even more disdain for them than Howard did.
    ]

    So you prefer Carte-Blanche Welfare for every tiny thing including a pinched nerve ??

    You’re more delusional than I thought.

  35. Frank
    My OH has been in a chair for 2 years now. I’ve tried to encourage him to participate on PBer but he reckons that could be dangerous for the furniture. 😆

  36. [By your own definition I’d be very surprised if Ron and Frank (and Psephos when he’s around) weren’t the only commenters here who would qualify as ‘hacks’. There is certainly no objective evidence from the comments here that the site is “full of Labor hacks” as you’ve noted in the past.

    I also see you said you’ve only just “re-engaged” with PB after a long absence. In which case you’ve missed earlier this year, the middle of this year, and the election campaign itself to see most Labor voters (incl me) being highly critical of the government. Perhaps it would be sensible to see the whole picture before condemning people, rather than labelling them in highly judgemental fashion without evidence?]

    Firstly, yes PB is an echo chamber for Labor hacks. That’s kind of obvious and I only re-engaged because I was sick and tired of seeing the Greens getting smeared & bashed day in day out on here.

    Re-engaged meant bothered to start posting on here. Like you on LP confessions I’ve been reading but not posting for a fair while now and until five minutes ago I’ve never seen you once be critical of the Labor Party in anyway shape or form.

  37. Adam
    [Labor don’t give a stuff about the most vulnerable people in society so much so it could be argued they have even more disdain for them than Howard did.]
    That is the biggest load of croc I have ever read.

  38. [231 AdamPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 6:26 pm | Permalinkno, I think it’s quite correct.
    I trust Labor more than any other party when it comes to dealing with PWD.
    Yeah okay, so how about Labor continuing the Howard stuff with requiring people to sign up to the Disability Job Networks and to meet all their mutual obligation requirements? How about intending to bring in welfare quarantining for people on the DSP next year unless they’re able to prove they’re not vulnerable?
    Labor don’t give a stuff about the most vulnerable people in society so much so it could be argued they have even more disdain for them than Howard did.]

    Excuse me – I’m on the DSP and I wasn’t required to “Sign Up” to any Job Network for any mutual obligation.

    Stop rabbitting Green Talking points and get your facts straight.

    As for Welfare Quarantinig – believe it or not there are people on the DSP who waste their payments on booze and smoke and drugs.

    You want the Taxpayer to support that ??

  40. [So you prefer Carte-Blanche Welfare for every tiny thing including a pinched nerve ??

    You’re more delusional than I thought.]

    Unfortunately this was the answer I expected.

  41. [What’s with Green oponents and excreatment?]

    Maybe it’s something to do with imported, right-wing ideas from the US? Via the Internet. Promulgated here in Australia by the likes of Andrew Bolt and assorted radio shock jocks? And the many tentacles of Rupert Murdoch’s pernicious empire? And the dumbing down of the ABC? (When – and by whose direction – did members of the Institute of Public Affairs become credible commentators on all ABC outlets?

    Are the people doing this stuff (excrement) young, wet behind the ears politically, or are they bitter and twisted old farts who see an opportunity to flog their tatty old wares? Where is this filth coming from?

  42. confessions, I think (and please these are not my views) Bolt is saying that recognising any one people to the exclusion of others in the Constitution is racism? That’s my best guess. Like you I find his argument hard to follow

  43. Adam
    [Firstly, yes PB is an echo chamber for Labor hacks. That’s kind of obvious and I only re-engaged because I was sick and tired of seeing the Greens getting smeared & bashed day in day out on here.

    Re-engaged meant bothered to start posting on here. Like you on LP confessions I’ve been reading but not posting for a fair while now and until five minutes ago I’ve never seen you once be critical of the Labor Party in anyway shape or form.]
    A pissing competition?
    Gees, we have sensible Greens & Libs post on here who make their point & then we discuss it in a civil manner.
    What is the political point you would like to make & discuss Adam?

  44. Adam
    Posted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 6:08 pm | Permalink

    ‘ Ladys here can handle themselves w/o
    But you’ve carried on this false nmonsense about one Lady blogger here for hours thats now over top

    So ease of , leave alone , and take me on as i dont hav a Ladys tact or decorums deeliing with this kind of persistyent PB attacks on one person

    I AM a Labor Party Member so put an arguement I’m a hack with evidense’

    “WTF? Are you trying to infer I’m sexist? What about when I was ‘attacking’ (try questioning) Frank the other week? I know you’re a party hack Ron, at least you and Frank admit it.”

    how did you “convert”my request to provide info I am a Hack , to that I admitted being
    Both within Party ans here I criticise Labor polisy that disagrees with my view

    like school comm formual , anti Palistiniens (Adam & I had many ferous arguements on that) , CC re lack of solar/geo thermal farms in GFC infastructure spending , campaign poor efforts insubstanse and slogan messages , initial poor (now fixed) A-S approach , and now prob pro gay marriage etc s

    i said last nite i support ‘marriage’ term specific of in number & of gender , but if Labor changes polisy then I said i’d post here (and say internal) polisy is wRONg In fact a Party meeting next week and i’ll say just that but more undiplomatic as talking easier

    (and if fired up may even say Howes & Arib too cynic focus on peoples reactions and not enuf on polisy formulation substanse

    So on gay marriage , am i loyal hack now but a disloyal hack if polisy changes

  45. [I only re-engaged because I was sick and tired of seeing the Greens getting smeared & bashed day in day out on here. ]

    Actually the Greens have hardly been mentioned here since the election, let alone being “smeared”, so that’s a rather strange observation to make.

    [until five minutes ago I’ve never seen you once be critical of the Labor Party in anyway shape or form.]

    And now I know you aren’t telling the truth.

  46. [Cash for Clunkers delayed by 6 months, and hopefully to be quietly euthanised.]

    Dio: Didn’t someone here do some analyses and showed the scheme had merit to reduce emissions?

  47. [confessionsPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 6:44 pm | PermalinkI only re-engaged because I was sick and tired of seeing the Greens getting smeared & bashed day in day out on here.
    Actually the Greens have hardly been mentioned here since the election, let alone being “smeared”, so that’s a rather strange observation to make.
    until five minutes ago I’ve never seen you once be critical of the Labor Party in anyway shape or form.
    And now I know you aren’t telling the truth.
    ]

    and thus “Adam” has been exposed as the Greens version of TTH 🙂

  48. [Dio: Didn’t someone here do some analyses and showed the scheme had merit to reduce emissions?]

    The scheme will increase CO2 emissions until the new car has done about 120,000km as it takes lots of CO2 to make a new car.

    And it’s a ridiculously expensive way to eventually reduce CO2 emissions.

  49. [
    and thus “Adam” has been exposed as the Greens version of TTH
    ]

    Whatever happened to Truthy? Was he unbanned? I used to enjoy his dissertations on how a bunch of commies in Victoria, SA, and Tasmania had cost Abbott the election

  50. Hi PBr’s,

    Been out and about all weekend playing ‘tourist’ on the Gold Coast with visiting rellies, so I am just catching up.

    BK,

    How did you go with your cricket comeback? Is the body still up to it or are you paying for it today? Or did the Aussie scouts sign you up because they recognise a legend when they see one?

    madcyril,

    I think people set themselves against this at their peril. I realised during the Rudd ‘Sorry’ just how deep the support for the Aboriginals is amongst Australians. While I have never understood the reluctance to demonstrate compassion, I thought I was in the minority. I was so surprised when shopping the day of the apology, how many people were praising Rudd and saying ‘about time’.

    Bring it on – I will vote for the change no matter how they get there.

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