Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at The Stump reports this week’s Essential Research poll shows the Coalition with a two-party lead for the first time since the agency commenced polling in early 2008. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 46 per cent, for a two-party lead of 51-49, while Labor is down two points to 39 per cent. Essential continues to show an unusually low vote for the Greens, who are steady on 8 per cent. Keane has more on supplementary questions to do with issues of concern and the best party to handle them.

UPDATE: Full Essential report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

573 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 6 of 12
1 5 6 7 12
  1. [madcyrilPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 6:49 pm | Permalink and thus “Adam” has been exposed as the Greens version of TTH
    Whatever happened to Truthy? Was he unbanned? I used to enjoy his dissertations on how a bunch of commies in Victoria, SA, and Tasmania had cost Abbott the election
    ]

    He was banned, along with his successor- whose name has escaped me for the moment.

  2. [Cleaner avoids jail over Treasury theft
    Posted 2 hours 31 minutes ago

    Nigel Jones says he will appeal against the conviction. (ABC News)

    A Tasmanian cleaner who stole State Government documents, and leaked them to the Opposition and the media, has been sentenced to 84 hours of community service.

    Nigel John Jones was found guilty in August of stealing more than 20 Treasury documents in May last year, when he worked as a government cleaner.

    Magistrate Olivia McTaggart said the 48 year old’s motive was no doubt some sort of dissatisfaction with the Government.]

  3. [The scheme will increase CO2 emissions until the new car has done about 120,000km as it takes lots of CO2 to make a new car. ]

    Dio:

    Oh dear, my memory isn’t serving me very well is it! 😆 I thought the calcs showed emissions went down, not up. Got that wrong too.

    If that’s the case chuck it altogether. It doesn’t sound very effective.

  4. [Excuse me – I’m on the DSP and I wasn’t required to “Sign Up” to any Job Network for any mutual obligation.

    Stop rabbitting Green Talking points and get your facts straight.

    As for Welfare Quarantinig – believe it or not there are people on the DSP who waste their payments on booze and smoke and drugs.

    You want the Taxpayer to support that ??]

    I gathered and not all DSP recipients are told they have the choice to consider themselves job seeker active or not. If you indicate you’re willing to work (job seeker active) you have to meet all DJSN requirements.

    Yes, there are people on the DSP who spend some money on booze, smokes & drugs just like the rest of society. This does not mean they spend all their money on that stuff and thus can’t handle their money so should have half of their fortnightly payment quarantined. There are people on the old age pension who blow a lot of their money on the pokies but obviously that’s different.

    How the hell can you justify potentially putting anyone on the old age pension/DSP through all this? Do you know how Centrelink works? My father had a massive stroke a few years ago to the point he’s severely brain damaged now, his left arm is dead and he can only walk with a quad stick on his right side and his wife propping him up on the left side yet Centrelink told him he was not eligible for the DSP because he could still use his index finger on his right hand to type. I was able to pull a few strings behind the scenes to finally after about six months get him onto it.

    You’re backing a party that has no qualms about putting anyone they choose on welfare through all that from next year? It’s a disgrace and the ALP should be absolutely ashamed themselves (hint, they’re not).

  5. So the party that refused to release their costings and then were shown to have a 7-11b black hole are preferred by voters on most economic issues. The mind boggles.

  6. confessions

    CO2 emissions will go down eventually with it (after about 6 years on average) and there would be a stimulus to the car industry so it would not be all bad.

  7. Adam,

    Centrelink and the people employed there are not the ‘government’. Sounds to me like you became a victim of a moron employed there.

  8. [AdamPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 6:56 pm | PermalinkExcuse me – I’m on the DSP and I wasn’t required to “Sign Up” to any Job Network for any mutual obligation.
    Stop rabbitting Green Talking points and get your facts straight.
    As for Welfare Quarantinig – believe it or not there are people on the DSP who waste their payments on booze and smoke and drugs.
    You want the Taxpayer to support that ??
    I gathered and not all DSP recipients are told they have the choice to consider themselves job seeker active or not. If you indicate you’re willing to work (job seeker active) you have to meet all DJSN requirements.
    Yes, there are people on the DSP who spend some money on booze, smokes & drugs just like the rest of society. This does not mean they spend all their money on that stuff and thus can’t handle their money so should have half of their fortnightly payment quarantined. There are people on the old age pension who blow a lot of their money on the pokies but obviously that’s different.
    How the hell can you justify potentially putting anyone on the old age pension/DSP through all this? Do you know how Centrelink works? My father had a massive stroke a few years ago to the point he’s severely brain damaged now, his left arm is dead and he can only walk with a quad stick on his right side and his wife propping him up on the left side yet Centrelink told him he was not eligible for the DSP because he could still use his index finger on his right hand to type. I was able to pull a few strings behind the scenes to finally after about six months get him onto it.
    You’re backing a party that has no qualms about putting anyone they choose on welfare through all that from next year? It’s a disgrace and the ALP should be absolutely ashamed themselves (hint, they’re not).
    ]

    Stop being so patronising – of course I know how Centrelink works.

    I reckon you got the runaround etc by your “I want my Welfare” attidude than anything else.

    Perhaps he was ineligible because of the Assets test ?

  9. [BK

    How did you go with your cricket comeback? Is the body still up to it or are you paying for it today? Or did the Aussie scouts sign you up because they recognise a legend when they see one?]
    Hi Kidette.

    It was an impressive, coragious, stupid and very brief comeback.
    4 not out, 20 run 8th wicket partnership, compromised hamstrings and groins, cracked or badly bruised rib from attempting an impossible slips catch.
    I gave a retirement speech immediately upon completion of the game (which we lost).
    I have been getting plenty of stick (friendly) from the locals today.
    If I don’t walk, sneeze or cough I can get by.
    Otherwise, all is well.

  10. [Space KidettePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 6:59 pm | PermalinkAdam,
    Centrelink and the people employed there are not the ‘government’. Sounds to me like you became a victim of a moron employed there
    ]

    Or more likely the Moron in front of the counter 🙂 Though it must be said that not all of Centrelink is perfect.

  11. Adam
    [Centrelink told him he was not eligible for the DSP because he could still use his index finger on his right hand to type. I was able to pull a few strings behind the scenes to finally after about six months get him onto it.

    You’re backing a party that has no qualms about putting anyone they choose on welfare through all that from next year? It’s a disgrace and the ALP should be absolutely ashamed themselves (hint, they’re not).]
    I find that entirely incredulous. What was the reasoning for denying DSP?
    Perhaps it was to do with personal savings & not disability.

  12. [DeePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 7:02 pm | PermalinkAdam
    Centrelink told him he was not eligible for the DSP because he could still use his index finger on his right hand to type. I was able to pull a few strings behind the scenes to finally after about six months get him onto it.
    You’re backing a party that has no qualms about putting anyone they choose on welfare through all that from next year? It’s a disgrace and the ALP should be absolutely ashamed themselves (hint, they’re not).
    I find that entirely incredulous. What was the reasoning for denying DSP?
    Perhaps it was to do with personal savings & not disability
    ]

    Exactly I’ve never heard such a biggest load of BS sprouted as a reason to reject the DSP – I reckon there were financial issues in play here.

  13. [BK,
    Maybe if you grovel nicely, Mrs BK can massage out some of those knots!]
    SK
    She would find it dificult to concentrate on that task whilst laughing.

  14. Adam, I have a bit to do with DSP assessment. There is no way your story, as presented is true. Your father’s disabilities would easily meet the DSP criteria, if properly assessed by the treating doctor

  15. Frank,

    The arguments are typical. Woe is me, I am owed, it is the governments fault. The only thing that is faulty is the logic.

  16. Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 6:50 pm | Permalink

    “BK,
    How did you go with your cricket comeback? ”

    I’m BK’s cricket biographer
    He did his nose on kitchen floor practising hook shot
    He did his hammys going out to th crease
    He scord 4 runs at world record pace
    He bowled and got whacked
    but starred in slips , tho not taking any catchs
    He retired , a success

    his photo is legendery on u tube for conoisers of cricket , aka Sir BK

  17. [AndrewPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 7:06 pm | PermalinkAdam, I have a bit to do with DSP assessment. There is no way your story, as presented is true. Your father’s disabilities would easily meet the DSP criteria, if properly assessed by the treating doctor
    ]

    Exactly I agree with you on that (now that’s a first). 🙂

    There would be other factors, such as income and assests of both his Father and Mother – which would be the reason behind not granting the DSP.

  18. [Centrelink and the people employed there are not the ‘government’. Sounds to me like you became a victim of a moron employed there.]

    They are employed by DEWR which is an arm of the government so for all intents and purposes. The govt of the day make the policy (i.e. Labor’s intention to role out nationwide welfare quarantining next year which the Libs will no doubt back in the senate) and then they administer it.

  19. [
    I think people set themselves against this at their peril. I realised during the Rudd ‘Sorry’ just how deep the support for the Aboriginals is amongst Australians. While I have never understood the reluctance to demonstrate compassion, I thought I was in the minority. I was so surprised when shopping the day of the apology, how many people were praising Rudd and saying ‘about time’.

    ]

    SK, I had similar experiences. I agree bring it on

  20. With regard to the “cash for clunkers ” has there been any breakdown as to what cars people must buy when trading in the old bombs to qualify ?

    If the cars are smaller models including hybrid etc. using less petrol and generally “cleaner” emissions would CO2 not be reduced ? Also perhaps they are trying to tie it in with the green car scheme vehicles to be manufactured by holden etc.in Australia. Give the local industry a bit of a boost.

    I have no idea just asking.

  21. BK.

    A sterling effort, sir!

    (On a serious note: you mentioned a product called Voltaren in a very early post. I trust you were joking! Check latest counter indications.)

  22. [Stop being so patronising – of course I know how Centrelink works.

    I reckon you got the runaround etc by your “I want my Welfare” attidude than anything else.

    Perhaps he was ineligible because of the Assets test ?]

    What assets? All he owns is a dingy little unit. I’m talking about passing the disability eligibility criteria, he was already on the dole when he became retrenched (something the ALP doesn’t care about with it’s ‘bash all the dole bludgers rhetoric’).

  23. [Space KidettePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 7:16 pm | PermalinkAdam,
    They administer a collection of policies, some from the government of the day, most from previous governments.
    ]

    Careful – Adam wants Govt Policy to welfare for all – no strings attached and free bongs and bundy.

  24. [BK.
    A sterling effort, sir!
    (On a serious note: you mentioned a product called Voltaren in a very early post. I trust you were joking! Check latest counter indications.)]
    Yes, Scringler, there are other products that have less side effects.

  25. [(i.e. Labor’s intention to role out nationwide welfare quarantining next year which the Libs will no doubt back in the senate)]

    Is this true?

  26. [AdamPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 7:18 pm | PermalinkStop being so patronising – of course I know how Centrelink works.
    I reckon you got the runaround etc by your “I want my Welfare” attidude than anything else.
    Perhaps he was ineligible because of the Assets test ?
    What assets? All he owns is a dingy little unit. I’m talking about passing the disability eligibility criteria, he was already on the dole when he became retrenched (something the ALP doesn’t care about with it’s ‘bash all the dole bludgers rhetoric’).
    ]

    Try Money in the bank for a start, plus the items IN the unit.

    Oh and now he was on the dfole previously.

    Stick to one story – your potkies are starting to show.

  27. Adam,

    I am more than happy to hear your arguments. But it is more than a stretch to accept you are credible when you jump from elegibility criteria to “ALP doesn’t care”.

    I suggest if you put aside the “I hate labor mantra” and concentrated on the facts we might get a better idea of your experience.

  28. [(i.e. Labor’s intention to role out nationwide welfare quarantining next year]

    Adam

    Would you care to expound on this? In other words, what the hell are you talking about?

  29. [Space KidettePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 7:21 pm | PermalinkAdam,
    I am more than happy to hear your arguments. But it is more than a stretch to accept you are credible when you jump from elegibility criteria to “ALP doesn’t care”.
    I suggest if you put aside the “I hate labor mantra” and concentrated on the facts we might get a better idea of your experience.
    ]

    His “DSP Story” has more holes than a Swiss Cheese factory. 🙂 And he can’t even get that straight.

    methinks he is talking out of the orifice which produces No 2’s 🙂

  30. [I find that entirely incredulous. What was the reasoning for denying DSP?
    Perhaps it was to do with personal savings & not disability.]

    Because they deemed his disability to not be a barrier to employment! It was disgusting and thankfully knowing a decent person at Centrelink I was able to get him to look into my father’s case and pass his eligibility.

    My father had no idea what was going on due to the brain damage and his wife hasn’t been out here all that long and didn’t know anything about the system either.

    Also Centrelink even cut off his unemployment benefit after he had the stroke because he all of a sudden stopped putting his fortnightly dole forms in! Getting that back on was a pain in the arse too and took months but no where near as stressful as him initially being rejected for the DSP because he was deemed ’employable’.

  31. BK
    My OH always compares me to the father in My Big Fat Greek Wedding & his cure all of window cleaner.
    Triple strength Dencorub for everything I say!

  32. [Adam, I have a bit to do with DSP assessment. There is no way your story, as presented is true. Your father’s disabilities would easily meet the DSP criteria, if properly assessed by the treating doctor]

    I would’ve thought so too.

  33. Confessions & 286,

    [Is this true?]

    Don’t start this crap again it was painful enough the first time around when all the posts got deleted after Frank spat the dummy.

  34. [AdamPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 7:26 pm | PermalinkI find that entirely incredulous. What was the reasoning for denying DSP?
    Perhaps it was to do with personal savings & not disability.
    Because they deemed his disability to not be a barrier to employment! It was disgusting and thankfully knowing a decent person at Centrelink I was able to get him to look into my father’s case and pass his eligibility.
    My father had no idea what was going on due to the brain damage and his wife hasn’t been out here all that long and didn’t know anything about the system either.
    Also Centrelink even cut off his unemployment benefit after he had the stroke because he all of a sudden stopped putting his fortnightly dole forms in! Getting that back on was a pain in the arse too and took months but no where near as stressful as him initially being rejected for the DSP because he was deemed ‘employable’.
    ]

    What a load of Bollocks.

    And you as his Son didn’t ADVISE Centrelink he had the Stroke ?? In most cases once they know they will act accordingly.

    Stop trying to be a poor man’s Barbera Cartland and admit you’ve made it up as an excuse to “Bash Labor”.

    You’d think we were all born yesterday.

    In fact we can spot BS at a thousand miles, and you are a classic example of it.

    Your story would be right at home on Talkback Radio.

  35. Adam
    [Because they deemed his disability to not be a barrier to employment! It was disgusting and thankfully knowing a decent person at Centrelink I was able to get him to look into my father’s case and pass his eligibility.]
    All I can say is that if what you say is genuine then it was a cock up.

  36. [It was disgusting and thankfully knowing a decent person at Centrelink I was able to get him to look into my father’s case and pass his eligibility. ]

    Adam you’ve just contradicted yourself again.

    You previously blamed the government for the Centrelink moron whom your father initially dealt with. So where does the decent Centrelink person fit in?

    It’s looking more and more like you struck unlucky with some idiot public servant with an axe to grind. Instead of reflecting calmly and logically on your experience, you’ve hysterically laid blame at the feet of the govt.

  37. Adam,

    I feel for your family, but unfortunately, because of the minority of people who do the wrong thing, there are a raft of ‘tests’ to ensure the people they do accept are genuine.

    I am a bit disappointed, by the lack of empathy some of the staff display at Centrelink, but then again, I suppose I would become a “doubting Thomas” after I had heard it all in the way of excuses from the more dodgy applicants.

    I am glad you finally sorted it out and I hope that your father manages some quality of life.

  38. [DeePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 7:32 pm | PermalinkAdam
    Because they deemed his disability to not be a barrier to employment! It was disgusting and thankfully knowing a decent person at Centrelink I was able to get him to look into my father’s case and pass his eligibility.
    All I can say is that if what you say is genuine then it was a cock up.
    ]

    Or a complete load of BS

  39. This week’s Essential Research poll shows the the Greens losing ground to the coalition Support for the Greens has  slumped from 11% six months ago to 8% in the latest poll. Presumably the Liberal Green supporters have abandoned the Greens following the formation of the Federal Minority Government. If you look at the Green preference distributions during the 2010 Federal elections 20% Green vote flowed to the Liberal Party, I suspect they have now rethought their flirtation with the Greens and returned home.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 6 of 12
1 5 6 7 12