Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at The Stump reports this week’s Essential Research poll shows the Coalition with a two-party lead for the first time since the agency commenced polling in early 2008. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 46 per cent, for a two-party lead of 51-49, while Labor is down two points to 39 per cent. Essential continues to show an unusually low vote for the Greens, who are steady on 8 per cent. Keane has more on supplementary questions to do with issues of concern and the best party to handle them.

UPDATE: Full Essential report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

573 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 7 of 12
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  1. Frank
    I find Adam’s story to be well, ummm, odd to say the least.
    Perhaps it was a cockup in the department because there is no way known that based on what Adam has said would he be ineligible for DSP.

  2. [DeePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 7:34 pm | PermalinkFrank
    I find Adam’s story to be well, ummm, odd to say the least.
    Perhaps it was a cockup in the department because there is no way known that based on what Adam has said would he be ineligible for DSP.
    ]

    I agree that there may have been a cockup in the system, but the bit where his story falters is the bit about losing his Dole cos of the stroke – If Adam had spoken to either Centrelink and/or the Hospital Social Worker, then he or she would’ve made the necessary arrangements for the dole to be continued etc.

  4. Confessions & Scringler,

    [Participants in the new income management scheme will include:

    •People aged 15 to 24 who have been in receipt of payments, including Newstart and Parenting Payment, for more than three of the last six months.
    •People aged 25 and above on those same payments for more than one year in the last two years.
    •People referred for income management by child protection authorities.
    •People assessed by Centrelink social workers as requiring income management due to vulnerability to financial crisis, domestic violence or economic abuse.

    Age and disability support pensioners will not be automatically income managed.]

    http://www.alp.org.au/federal-government/news/tony-abbott-announces-copycat-policy-on-welfare-re/

  5. [DeePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 7:34 pm | PermalinkFrank
    I find Adam’s story to be well, ummm, odd to say the least.
    Perhaps it was a cockup in the department because there is no way known that based on what Adam has said would he be ineligible for DSP.
    ]

    Yup, even not filling the form correctly (They are the most jargon filled forms in histor) can result in the DSP being denied.

  6. preamble to Constit words I can see possible being turned into a politcal football I’m not sure either Liberals or Greens will be happy with it (for diff reasons of whats in and not in not just re Aboriginees but also re other issues either incl or excl)

    a pity , and an insult to aboriginees that may happen

    I’d draft it with simplicity
    representing most aussies view

    there’s some words in some song of we’re one , and we’re many thats got god refs to that we is an imigrant Country of peoples after aboriginees being first peoples

  7. [Age and disability support pensioners will not be automatically income managed.
    ]

    and your rant about Age and DSP recipents will be “Automatically” quarantied has shown to be a complete load of BS.

  9. Adam
    [Income management is a key tool for protecting vulnerable people, especially children, and ensuring that a minimum of 50 per cent of welfare payments is spent on life essentials like food, clothes and rent.

    The amount quarantined rises to 70 per cent in cases involving child protection.

    One hundred per cent of lump sum payments are income managed.]
    I agree with this. There are many children in communities whose parents have alcohol, gambling & drug addictions. It is always the kiddies that suffer as a consequence.

  10. Sharing and re-living all those personal experiences I can’t believe how much I’m being attacked and accused of lying on here by you one-eyed animals. I’m so angry I almost feel like crying.

    I’m leaving.

  12. Adam:

    Thank you. But we already established this “the last time around”, where it was shown that not all income support recipients will be targetted.

    I was curious to know if this was still the case, or if there was further information to support your assertion that the govt “intended rolling out income management across the country”. Obviously there isn’t, and obviously the government doesn’t.

  17. Adam:

    I’m sorry if you feel you are being attacked. It certainly isn’t my intention to do so, merely to better understand where you are coming from.

  18. [Brumby and Baillieu to take part in a Rooty Hill style Sky News forum at the Burvale in Nunawading on Wednesday]

    I’m sorry, I don’t know Melbourne. Is that the equivalent of Western Sydney?

  19. I heard an aboriginal lawyer on radio saying that although the referendum would be well received that it could divert attention from the serious problems in indigenous communities. She mentioned housing and mental health as particularly bad.

    She also said that in the NT, rates of school attendance have continued to decline in the last three years and the over-representation of the indigenous has increased.

  20. hello, hello, Red Kerry, please move on.

    I dont understand why the pre-occupation with Hillary calling of “Prime Minister Rudd”. i must have heard it commented or asked 3 or 4 times now.

    I thought the Americans have the habit of calling their ex-leaders by their office title, such as President Clinton, President Bush etc. I am sure that what happened to Hillary.

    And the MSM and Their ABC likes to spin it as an insult to the PM Gillard. Pathetic.

  23. [I thought the Americans have the habit of calling their ex-leaders by their office title, such as President Clinton, President Bush etc. I am sure that what happened to Hillary.]
    They do! You never hear them say Mr.Bush, he is always refered to as President Bush.
    I think they keep the title indefinately.

  25. [confessionsPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 7:50 pm | PermalinkAdam:
    I’m sorry if you feel you are being attacked. It certainly isn’t my intention to do so, merely to better understand where you are coming from.
    ]

    Fess, his “story” had so many holes and contradictions we may never know it was true or not – I smelt a rat from the time he mentioned it – and the dole stuff later put the icing on the cake that it was a nice piece of creative writing to attack Labor.

    And being on the DSP – I know how tjhey operate and the hoops you have to go through – and frankly his story had all the hallmarks of a Today Tonight beat up.

  26. If Galaxy are doing the screening for the Melbourne thing then I’m sure it won’t be as rigged as the Rooty Hill one was. Teh Brisbane forum was noticeably less partisan.

  27. victoria,

    If they show the worm at work, it could be entertaining, but as for political value, they seem a bit of sideshow.

  28. [I can’t believe how much I’m being attacked and accused of lying on here by you one-eyed animals.]

    Actually, i am the only animal here on PB. I got 2 eyes and a tail, flip, flip, flip. And trying to grow a couple of horns.

  30. Adam’s father would have had the assessment problem in this part of the process:

    [What is a Job Capacity Assessment?

    A Job Capacity Assessment is an appointment with a qualified Job Capacity Assessor who assesses your capacity to work, based on the information you provide during the appointment and other relevant information, such as medical reports. Job Capacity Assessors are allied health professionals, such as psychologists, physiotherapists and rehabilitation counsellors. Wherever possible, the Job Capacity Assessor will refer you to services that can help you find and retain work, and their reports are used by Centrelink to make income support decisions, such as for Disability Support Pension.]

    [Why do I need a Job Capacity Assessment?
    Centrelink or your employment service provider will refer you for a Job Capacity Assessment if:
    you apply for or are receiving activity-tested Centrelink income support payments, such as Newstart Allowance, and:
    you have a disability, medical condition or other barrier to work; or
    you apply for a long term medical exemption from activity test requirements;
    you claim Disability Support Pension, or your Disability Support Pension is reviewed; or
    you register directly with an employment service provider, or volunteer for employment assistance through Centrelink (for example if you receive Disability Support Pension and want help to find work).
    Employment and related services are available to help you prepare for, find and sustain work where appropriate. These services include Job Services Australia, Disability Employment Services and Australian Disability Enterprises.]

    http://www.deewr.gov.au/employment/programs/jca/support/pages/assessments.aspx

  32. confessions

    Without knowing much about Western Sydney. Nunawading is a leafy suburb in the east. Surrounding suburbs are Forest Hill, Blackburn, Burwood, Doncaster, Vermont and Ringwood.

  38. [confessionsPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 8:00 pm | PermalinkFrank:
    I think Adam was being genuine about his father.
    ]

    Maybe so – but his embellishment of it did his cause more harm than good.

  40. Andrew

    There is a suggestion that the banks will voluntarily scrap the fees, rather than wait for regulation, but at this stage nothing agreed to.

  42. Diog, my colleague, a psychiatrist who is Indian in origin spent one of his recent holidays with his family in Alice Springs, volunteering as a psychiatrist while the family had a holiday. He had many fascinating stories to tell on his return, one of which was he was the only psychiatrist for thousands of kilometres, and another was that the Aboriginal people were more prepared to trust him (he thought skin colour) in preference to the Vietnamese background psychiatric registrar.
    BTW, I’d say to everyone who visits or posts here that you may be passionate about something, but it doesn’t make you right. Politics, after all, is about a battle of ideas.

  43. confessions,

    It’s out in the Eastern suburbs.

    The local member is Kirstie Marshall who you may remember as and Olympian being very skilled at back flips and sommersaults on slippery snow.

    Kirstie has held the seat for 11 years for Labor but before that was Liberal forever. The sort of seat that Libs need to win to make headway. Comfortable middle class would be your profile.

  45. victoria,

    If they don’t put in legislation to outlaw these fees they will just lay low for a while and slip them back in later when the blowtorch is not on them.

  47. [BTW, I’d say to everyone who visits or posts here that you may be passionate about something, but it doesn’t make you right.]

    Harry, i hope not. i am 5degree off centre, leaning to the left but occasionally dash to the right for a peek.

  50. Evening PBers
    You may be interested in my ongoing discourse with their ABC re bias.
    You may recall I had complained about an i/v with Abetz and received this response from
    Claire M Gorman
    Audience and Consumer Affairs

    Dear David

    Thank you for your email of 9 September regarding ABC News Radio. Please accept my sincere apologies for the delay in responding to your concerns.

    Your concerns have been referred to Audience and Consumer Affairs, a unit which is separate to and independent of program making areas within the ABC. We have the role, under the ABC’s Editorial Policies (http://abc.net.au/corp/pubs/edpols.htm) of examining the compliance of material, about which a complaint has been made, against the relevant editorial standards. In the course of these examinations, we seek and consider material provided by the relevant Division, in this case, ABC Radio.

    We understand you to be of the view that the ABC News Radio has been biased in general over the period of the election campaign and afterwards and that this was evidenced in ABC News Radio journalist Steve Chase’s interview with Senator Eric Abetz. As a complaints handling unit, we are only able to investigate specific examples raised so we have examined this interview, and your concerns, in light of the ABC’s editorial requirements for news and current affairs. These requirements provide the guiding rules for broadcasting, rather than the ABC Charter. The requirements, as contained in the ABC’s Editorial Policies state:

    5.2.2 (a) The ABC takes no editorial stand in its programming”,

    (c) Be accurate.

    (i) Every reasonable effort, in the circumstances, must be made to ensure that the factual content of news and current affairs is accurate and in context.

    (ii) The ABC will not hesitate to admit and correct a significant error when it is established that one has been made. When a correction is necessary, it will be made in an appropriate manner as soon as

    reasonably practicable”,

    and that staff must

    “5.2.2 (d) Be impartial. Editorial judgements are based on news values, not for example on political, commercial or sectional interests or personal views. Do not unduly favour one perspective over others”.

    Regarding balance, the policies state: “5.2.2 (e) Balance will be sought but may not always be achieved within a single program or publication; it will be achieved as soon as reasonably practicable and in an appropriate manner. It is not essential to give all sides equal time. As far as possible, present principal relevant views on matters of importance.”

    We note that you feel that Steve Chase should have challenged Senator Abetz regarding his claim that the Coalition had won the two party preferred vote. On review of the interview we are satisfied that this was not necessarily an issue that needed to be challenged in the interview. The Coalition were making this claim as part of their post election strategy. As such this was then an opinion, rather than a fact which could be tested for accuracy or not under the Policies above. While there is no obligation to fact check the opinions of interviewees or challenge them in interview, it is expected that the person is a principal relevant viewpoint and well placed to discuss the matter at hand. We conclude that this was the case with Senator Abetz. Furthermore, it was not the focus of the interview to debate numbers at this stage post-election, the new Government had been decided.

    We note your concern that there was no right of reply to this interview with Senator Abetz and we would like to explain that rights of reply are not automatically accorded in response to an interview to those of the opposing view. Rather, it is a requirement for the ABC to present the principal relevant viewpoints as soon as possible in order to achieve balance. In the case of the interview with Sentaor Abetz, his views must be considered alongside those of other Federal politicians of all political colours which have been presented on News Radio around that time.

    We are satisfied that ABC News Radio provided balanced coverage of Federal politics on this day. You may be interested to note that the views of Labor Senator and Minister for Broadband Stephen Conroy were heard at 3.45am Wester Australian time and that Labor Minister Chris Bowen was interviewed at length by Marius Benson at 5.20am. Later that day ABC News radio broadcast an interview with the Greens leader Senator Bob Brown.

    We do hope this adequately explains the ABC’s approach to political coverage. Thank you again for taking the time to write.

    Following is a link to the ABC’s Code of Practice for your information – http://abc.net.au/corp/pubs/documents/200806_codeofpractice-revised_2008.pdf

    Yours sincerely

    Claire M Gorman

    Audience and Consumer Affairs

    I replied to Ms Gorman…

    Thankyou for your response. What a whitewash. You failed to answer my concerns but rushed into gobbledygook, evasive, absurd rubbish.

    What I did take from your reply is that it is obviously ok for Oppositions spokespersons to say what they like, unchallenged, factual or not. I understand it is part of an interviewers brief to know their topic. Yours do not. Unless of course they are under management instructions to take a certain line when dealing with particular politicians from a particular party.

    You are not dealing with an idiot Ms Gorman. I do have the ability to understand your attempt to justify that which cannot be justified. You are not in a position to be seen to be critical of your masters, that I also understand. How sad lack of spine decides ones responses. That is your problem not mine

    Fortunately there are other avenues to take my complaint and your response to. I will continue to do just that.

    At least you managed to get someone to put together this rubbish that you had the gall to sign.

    Thankyou

    Yours Sincerely
    David C

    She followed up today with

    Dear Mr C=====

    Thank you for your further email. I regret you feel my response to you was a whitewash.

    There are a number of further avenues of review available to you, should you wish to pursue your concerns. These are outlined in our fact sheet at: http://www.abc.net.au/corp/pubs/documents/audience_complaint.pdf.

    Yours sincerely

    Claire M Gorman

    At least she has got the message we will not put up with the standard replies that say nothing and take no responsibility. I feel better for saying it. Sod her.

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