Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at The Stump reports this week’s Essential Research poll shows the Coalition with a two-party lead for the first time since the agency commenced polling in early 2008. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 46 per cent, for a two-party lead of 51-49, while Labor is down two points to 39 per cent. Essential continues to show an unusually low vote for the Greens, who are steady on 8 per cent. Keane has more on supplementary questions to do with issues of concern and the best party to handle them.

UPDATE: Full Essential report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

573 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 8 of 12
1 7 8 9 12
  1. and thus “Adam” has been exposed as the Greens version of TTH

    Well, *Adam’s* manner of posting comes across to me as bob1234 revisited.

    He was even banned by William for his repeated use of “Labor Hacks”.

  2. Dee

    Happy to report that I have a fine crop of broad beans, plus much true spinach. Spuds are coming along nicely. New roses are thriving. The globe artichokes are a joy to behold! Many to be picked young. Lightly boiled or steamed. Good butter, squeeze of lemon. Heaven!

    The new nectarine trees, after a bit of a scare with leaf curl, are full of fruit. The apricot trees have found their feet and will produce scoffing and preserving fruit. The garlic is also fine. The apple trees are happy. The prune d’agen is pouting.

    The flat-leaf parsley is self-seeding all over the place. Have propagated the fig, but it’s a worry.

    Won’t be posting for a while ( as if anyone cares) because I’m off to Tassie for a project.

    However. I’d like to keep up to date on the Victorian election, a clear precise report on the day’s events delivered at around 6.30PM would be good. Straight reporting.

    Is that too much to ask?

    Cheers. Tony

  3. [AdamPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 7:44 pm | PermalinkSharing and re-living all those personal experiences I can’t believe how much I’m being attacked and accused of lying on here by you one-eyed animals. I’m so angry I almost feel like crying.
    I’m leaving
    ]

    Welcome to the world of Centrelink where your story would’ve been gone over with a fine tooth comb far greater than what we did here.

  4. The story about banks removing exit fees was reported in the Murdoch media. “Informed sources ” within the banking industry told News Ltd. that this was going to happen before regulation.

    Wouldn’t surprise me if News were just trying to take the focus away from the Government along the lines of too little too late.

    On the other hand the story might be right and I could just be paranoid. Will just have to wait and see.

  5. [davePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 8:08 pm | Permalink and thus “Adam” has been exposed as the Greens version of TTH
    Well, *Adam’s* manner of posting comes across to me as bob1234 revisited.
    He was even banned by William for his repeated use of “Labor Hacks”.
    ]

    I forgot about Bob Squared 🙂

    Yes you are correct – this is Bob’s short-lived return which ended when his massaged Centrelink story got him caught out 🙂

  6. on refelexion, re adam, i havent read it all but if confessions feels it could be true thats good enough for me,

    perhpas this is a cry for help, may i suggest Adam you ring your local member make an appointment and then have the case sent to arbitration, some years ago my father put in a claim to Vets affairs first time around i beleive it was knocked back, so it went to a tribunal approved immediately of course i am talking 30 years ago dad has been long gone.

    And also we can never convert people to labor if we are not kind, we know about truthy and a few of us tried but Adam if you are reading this, labor people are very kind you know, the libs never set anything up for the poor or needy perhaps you dont know that,

    There was a time when there was no old age pension, also no medi care and no HECS it was labor who gave you this., Many libs dont know about medicare and think it was all ways there and i think if the libs could they would just have private cover.
    but thats another story

  7. Doyley,

    My gut feeling (from working in the industry) is the banks will take one of two approaches. They will suck up as much fees up front til legislation goes through or they will lay low in the hope that they can suck the government into thinking they will do the right thing so legislation won’t be put through – so they can resurrect the fees later.

  8. Just came back from evening meal.
    I used to work in Nunawading. In the past it had a migrant centre. It is light industrial, a bit of a nonentity as far as character. No main shopping complex. Its main feature is the Springvale Road/Maroondah Hwy road crossing, called one of the most dangerous in Melb until they recently separated trains and cars. I’d say a fair number of migrant there, but no figures to prove it. Not leafy middle class at all (if middle class means what I think).

  9. [Won’t be posting for a while ( as if anyone cares) because I’m off to Tassie for a project.]

    enjoy your stay even if its work, gosh your garden sounds wonderful
    where is it.

  10. Scringler,

    We do care! Enjoy your adventure and I hope someone is looking after that fantastic garden while you are away!

  11. lizzie

    I described it as a middle rung suburb. By that I mean, not an inner suburb with all the best facilities, and not an outer suburb either. Having said that, houses are damn expensive in Nunawading too!

  12. bemused:

    Thanks for that. I remember seeing it at the time – I often read Quiggin’s blog.

    I had however thought I’d seen a commenter here with their own blog who’d done the calcs on the cash for clunkers scheme. Obviously I’ve misread or gotten confused about it.

  13. Scringler
    You have done very well. That flatleaf parsley is so easy to grow it makes a nuisance of itself.
    You should have sprayed your nectarines when they were bare just before bud swell.
    Oh well always next season. Enjoy your trip to Tassie. 🙂

  14. victoria

    It’s a nice site and should be interesting. Earliest known is around 1820. I’m going for the earlier horizon.

    You on for the Vic election update?

    Cheers. Tony

  15. BK’s latest adventure.
    In 4 or 5 weeks’ time I’ll be undergoing 10 hours of training driving a medium rigid truck in order to gain licence accreditation to allow me to drive the local CFS brigade’s fire appliance (they’re supposed to be called “tankers” now) during the summer.
    Let’s hope I don’t injure myself doing this!

  16. BK’s latest adventure.
    In 4 or 5 weeks’ time I’ll be undergoing 10 hours of training driving a medium rigid truck in order to gain licence accreditation to allow me to drive the local CFS brigade’s fire appliance (they’re supposed to be called “tankers” now) during the summer.
    Let’s hope I don’t injure myself doing this!

  17. Dee

    Whenever someone says something is easy to grow I know it will die for me.
    Over the past few years I have purchased about 6 common mint plants and every one has died, sometimes before I even got them in the ground.
    On the other hand, my eau-de-cologne mint is spreading all around the dam.

  18. [enjoy your stay even if its work, gosh your garden sounds wonderful
    where is it.]
    Plenty of volunteers to care for Scringlers garden I bet.

  19. I agree with Victoria. Nunawading is not a wealthy suburb, it is in the heart of Deakin and the Nunawading booths usually support the ALP but by a small margin and can swing to the Liberals.

    The seat of Forest Hill is a must win for the Liberal Party, traditionally it would not be won by a 4th term ALP Government.

    If Marshall holds Forest Hill I would image that Brumby would be headed for a big win.

  20. HSO

    [Diog, my colleague, a psychiatrist who is Indian in origin spent one of his recent holidays with his family in Alice Springs, volunteering as a psychiatrist while the family had a holiday. He had many fascinating stories to tell on his return, one of which was he was the only psychiatrist for thousands of kilometres, and another was that the Aboriginal people were more prepared to trust him (he thought skin colour) in preference to the Vietnamese background psychiatric registrar.]

    I know the statistics on suicide and substance abuse are terrible amongst the indigenous but you don’t hear much about mental health as being a major area of need.

    I suppose it dates back to the thought that education, housing, food and physical welfare are more fundamental to fix than mental welfare.

  21. I hope everyone is enjoying all the bank bashing at the moment! Isn’t it funny how far to the left the Liberals are prepared to go to score a few votes.

    If the Liberals had won the election they would not be complaining one bit about the banks, just like they did nothing when in government for 11 years.

    Ok. Now let’s get real! The banks will abolish exit fees and the government may enact measures to promote competition, but the day a new entrant enters the market and goes bust with the next GFC, there is NO WAY the tax payer is going to resue your savings.

    Goodbye savings accounts and term deposits. The taxpayer with no savings or one that banks with the larger institutions WILL NOT be expected to come to your rescue.

    You can’t have it both ways!

  22. Harry, i hope not. i am 5degree off centre, leaning to the left but occasionally dash to the right for a peek.
    I would have thought you’d dash through 3 dimensional space for the fish?!

  23. [There was a time when there was no old age pension, also no medi care and no HECS it was labor who gave you this]

    Deakin’s government brought in the old age pension. I don’t know his party affiliation if any and Labor also gave us HECS.

  24. lizzie
    [6 common mint plants and every one has died, sometimes before I even got them in the ground.]
    Lack of water?

    Mint thrives in moist soil in part shade. It has gone crazy around my water tank which protects it from the afternoon sun. That flat leaf parsley if left to seed will sprout up everywhere.

  25. It’s nice to get back amngst the bloggers, even if there was a certain “willingness” earlier in the day.
    For a week my business-oriented sister from Darwin has been staying with me, and I had to twist myself into knots to lead the conversation away from politics all the time.
    She actually believes that Abbott is a lovely man, the only politician that tells the truth all the time; Julia is a conniving bitch (sorry Jules); the Labor Party is out to ruin all small business…. You get the picture, but those quotes were verbatim.
    I can’t believe I’m related to such a rich b-tch.
    I think she and rich husband don’t really follow politics, so absorb the headlines and the yacht club talk.
    Thank goodness the week is over.

  26. Just like ‘Days of our lives’ TV series. Doesn’t matter how many episodes you miss you can come back and not notice. And the PB bar-flies are its cast.

    Same old maudlin echo chamber of hand wringers more unwilling than ever to face the reality of what has happened this past year, and how much of a mess has been made of Labor’s future, its primary and terminal decline and its perceived leadership on critical issues lost.

    All that was gained over the Coalition on economic affairs has been lost by a vissionless, dimensionless ‘leader’ who seems more and more like a talentless 1950s departmental CEO.

    AND

    [And the MSM and Their ABC likes to spin it as an insult to the PM Gillard.]

    Come off it. It was a little favoured paid to Rudd by Clinton on behalf of her and the Admin. Not much of a big deal, but a note to gillard that she comes second.

    Oh sure, sure. Clinton is so used to saying ‘PM Rudd’ in her daily routine that it subconsciously rolled of her tongue by mistake. Get real children. You know gillard must be doing pretty badly when her gaggle rush to defend her even before she is attacked.

    Even that LL Arbib is starting to look down on her.

    Gillard has taken Labor down a dark dismal lane of irrelevance. Talk about losing its way.

    Well she made her grab for power at the first opportunity of a low poll, and back-stabbed Rudd. And from that height she has gone from bad to worse. Even Abbott and Hockey are starting to look good in comparison to her efforts.

    OK team. Time to start running to her defence. But face it, you backed a second rate character.

  27. [but you don’t hear much about mental health as being a major area of need. ]

    Dio: it’s constantly mentioned as a major area of need.

  28. [Thomas PainePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 8:31 pm | PermalinkJust like ‘Days of our lives’ TV series. Doesn’t matter how many episodes you miss you can come back and not notice. And the PB bar-flies are its cast.
    Same old maudlin echo chamber of hand wringers more unwilling than ever to face the reality of what has happened this past year, and how much of a mess has been made of Labor’s future, its primary and terminal decline and its perceived leadership on critical issues lost.
    ]

    How convienent – “Adam” Leaves – and TP returns.

    cue

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzlG28B-R8Y

  29. Dee

    Thanks, but I think some of them even drowned. I just think I’m not destined to have common mint. I loved the sound of Scringler’s garden.

  30. victoria

    That was a conversation with my mother (I was hiding in my bedroom 😆 ), but I suspect she was referring to fair work legislation etc. My mother, being a strongly Labor voter, tried to keep very quiet and nod, so she was concentrating more on not quarrelling than taking in the “right wing rant”, as she put it.

  31. confessions

    [Dio: it’s constantly mentioned as a major area of need.]

    In the general population it is but I rarely hear about when referring to the indigenous population. I’ve worked a lot with injured indigenous people, including many who were mentally unwell, and it doesn’t get raised much.

  32. Diog, any people living with or perhaps dying with the level of degradation and dysfunction that some of the communities do, would have significant mental health problems. But you’re right that fundamental needs such as shelter and food are paramount. It’s one of the reasons I have a deeply ambivalent attitude to income management. On one hand, it’s a very controlling measure to take, though we do this in mental health when we make people involuntary. On the other hand, it’s certainly the experience of many of us who work in the area, that the only way to get sufficient material support to the children of people damaged by mental health and drug abuse problems, is to take this away from them partially, at least. Again, we do this for people who are impaired psychiatrically and/or intellectually.
    There’s no easy answers and many dilemmas to be confrounted.

  33. Ahh TP is back and at his vengeful demented best at that!

    How are your Bears going on the financial markets TP?

    Can you see any more disasters in the horizon?

    And how do think new entrants of smaller banks are going to handle that crisis?
    😆

  34. Not sure if this was mentioned but Neighbours is filmed in Nunawading, Ramsay St is in fact a street in Nunawading. So if you can picture that then your there. As others have said an established suburb, average middle class.

  35. lizzie

    I have the situation where my brother could be best described as a very leftist socialist. He is so knowledgeable about world history, the role of govts, and how the different systems have worked in each country, that I find myself getting an enormous headache when I have to converse with him. 🙂

  36. Space Kidette @360,

    thanks for that.

    Perhaps I got myself confused. I was thinking the media reporting was about the banks acting before the reforms were released on Friday instead of when it was introduced into parliament. I just could not see how they would act before Friday. Should read these articles a bit more closely!

  37. HSO

    [It’s one of the reasons I have a deeply ambivalent attitude to income management. On one hand, it’s a very controlling measure to take, though we do this in mental health when we make people involuntary. On the other hand, it’s certainly the experience of many of us who work in the area, that the only way to get sufficient material support to the children of people damaged by mental health and drug abuse problems, is to take this away from them partially, at least.]

    The amazing thing is no-one seems to have any idea whether the intervention is working, what bits are good, whether it’s popular and with whom etc etc. The lack of assessment is bizarre.

  38. cyril

    Ramsay Street was only a hundred yards from the back of our building. That area seemed to have a lot of retired people. Lots of people who live there pretend they live in the adjacent suburbs !!
    Funnily enough, although it doesn’t stand out much as a suburb, Nunawading for a long time was the geographic centre of Greater Melbourne.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 8 of 12
1 7 8 9 12