Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at The Stump reports this week’s Essential Research poll shows the Coalition with a two-party lead for the first time since the agency commenced polling in early 2008. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 46 per cent, for a two-party lead of 51-49, while Labor is down two points to 39 per cent. Essential continues to show an unusually low vote for the Greens, who are steady on 8 per cent. Keane has more on supplementary questions to do with issues of concern and the best party to handle them.

UPDATE: Full Essential report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

573 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. [victoriaPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 8:43 pm | Permalinkmadcyril
    I don’t even watch Neighbours, but isn’t it a street in Vermont?
    ]

    Nunawading is the home of Global TV and was formally owned by ATV 10.

  3. Dio:

    Indigenous mental health is also constantly raised in indigenous health sector as well. In fact as recently as the other day one of the AMA Branch Presidents (SA or WA – can’t remember) was lamenting the parlous state of mental health among prison inmates, of which a significant proportion are indigenous.

    There was a Cairns conference recently held which focused exclusively on the issue. From memory they’ve held that conference each year for the last 3. Ernest Hunter is the psychiatrist who’s had a fair bit to do with the conference, and who is well known for his own work in indigenous mental health.

  5. victoria

    See? You think it’s Vermont. It’s kinda sorta. That’s the thing about Nunawading. Hardly anyone actually lives there (joke, joyce).
    I can’t remember where the migrant centre was, though.

  6. Frank,

    That comment by Janet Woolard all but confirms that she received extra staff in return for not voting down the Government.

    The laws about buying votes are very clear.

    Not sure if its naievity or bravado, but I would suggest you’ve got a juicy scandal emerging.

  7. lizzie

    madcyril just stated that it is actually Vermont. Maybe Ramsay street is on the border of both suburbs. Anyhow, I doubt that will make any difference to the forum. 🙂

  8. [lizziePosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 8:46 pm | Permalinkvictoria
    See? You think it’s Vermont. It’s kinda sorta. That’s the thing about Nunawading. Hardly anyone actually lives there (joke, joyce).
    I can’t remember where the migrant centre was, though.
    ]

    Speaking of Nunawading – a bit of footage of the then ATV 10 studios from the early 80’s

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yp7cEf0F9WA

  9. victoria @ 395

    It’s a funny thing, but anyone who is a really, really keen proponent of any social movement has a very stultifying effect on conversation that leads to headaches or an urgent desire for soothing alcohol.
    My brother is a computer freak and has the same effect on me.

  10. [OK team. Time to start running to her defence. But face it, you backed a second rate character.]

    Thomas, i feel your paine.

  11. Brilliant state ALP ad. What has Ted Baillieu done since the last election. Whiteboard with #1. Slogan- Ted Baillieu….ummmm

    ttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdbXlXhlDh8

  12. I should add that the whole stolen generations issue is also inextricably linked with indigenous mental health and wellbeing.

  13. [Greensborough GrowlerPosted Monday, November 8, 2010 at 8:48 pm | PermalinkFrank,
    That comment by Janet Woolard all but confirms that she received extra staff in return for not voting down the Government.
    The laws about buying votes are very clear.
    Not sure if its naievity or bravado, but I would suggest you’ve got a juicy scandal emerging.
    ]

    Today Woolard has come out and compared it to Julia’s deal withthe Indies etc.

    You’re right, this could be the undoing of either Barnett or Carles- hopefully both 🙂

  17. madcyril, victoria

    Ramsay Street – yes, but some of the scenes were shot in “my” bit of Nunawading – the house frontage where the family lived. So “Ramsay Street” is a bit of a fabrication.

  20. [Does anyone remember Wobbies World theme park, it was up the road from The Burvale when I was a kid. God it was a crappy theme park. I mean really crappy! Check out the ad]
    Springvale Rd opposite Channel 10?

  22. confessions

    It’s probably very difficult to manage. You can see how difficult it is to address housing, schooling and general health.

    Most of those areas have plenty of the indigenous community working in them and can get expertise from outside when needed. Mental health is much harder. You really need not just specific expertise but the same background as it’s a long-term problem. I can easily put a skin graft on an indigenous patient but us Anglo docs could almost never treat a mental illness in the same patient. We can’t even look after mentally ill people living in big cities; I hate to think how we’re doing looking after the mentally ill in indigenous populations.

  28. [
    You are not kidding. Woeful! What is at Wobbies World now
    ]

    It is impossible to convey how crappy it was. As kids, we would have had more fun in an empty paddock than we did at Wobbies World

  30. indigenous referendum. great idea. expert panel? Not needed and invokes the dreaded CA and the perception that the government offloads decisions. Not a good look

  35. [It is impossible to convey how crappy it was. As kids, we would have had more fun in an empty paddock than we did at Wobbies World]
    Are you old enough to have visited St Moritz in St.Kilda just down the road from Luna Park?

  36. [I can easily put a skin graft on an indigenous patient but us Anglo docs could almost never treat a mental illness in the same patient. ]

    Yes, I think that’s a fair assessment.

    I used to work for Australia’s only indigenous psychiatrist (child psychiatry), and incidentally our country’s first indigenous medical graduate, and she was very big on culturally-specific care, and cultural determinants of indigenous wellbeing. I’d watch her in a room full of white medicos, and she’d leave them for dead – they really had no clue, and clearly mainstream mental approaches were inappropriate. A significant part of her clinical load were indigenous children. Said it all for me.

  39. [
    Are you old enough to have visited St Moritz in St.Kilda just down the road from Luna Park?
    ]

    Not sure Dee, I’m early thirties. I’ve never heard of St Moritz. Crappy?

  41. [With Hillary visiting, all the action has been in Melbourne]

    Hillary??

    Hillary couldn’t raise a pulse beat out of you 😈

  43. [Not sure Dee, I’m early thirties. I’ve never heard of St Moritz. Crappy?]
    It’s gone, long gone! You would have been in nappies being in your early thirties.
    It was an old ice skating rink.

  44. Hello all. Haven’t been reading PB for a while, but just watched 7.30 Report and felt a right ol’ urge to comment – aahhhhh… the ol’ Kev. That man was/is a godsend to the nation!

    He is so damn strategic! He oozes vision. He is one hell of a statesman (going on here a bit, but can’t help it).

    When i see him talking about Australia’s place in the world, and the passion so evident behind it, his desire to *improve* the world and Australia… I want to weep for what this country lost.

    But then the end of the interview comes – he’s awkward, he’s…. nerdy. Yes, he’s dignified, but it’s so… damn… difficult, the way he tries to relate. And I think there was just no goddamn way he was going to hold the respect of the people. He just isn’t cut out to relate to a mass audience.

    Is Julia? Dunno. Jury really is still out, I reckon, when it comes to whether that great semi-ignorant mass of lumpenproletariat will truly warm to her.

    jeez… how miserable to live in the age of the cult of celebrity. But there it is. That’s the reality.. and all the MSM bashing, and bias accusations, and “poor media communication by the govt” chants won’t change jack-shit if we don’t *take* to our leader.

    Was it Nietsche? The “great man” view of history? Never subscribed to it myself, but in the current age we live in – how do you fight it?

  45. [Could you Bludgers stop talking about crappy Melbourne. Sydney is where the action and excitement is at]

    yes Centre, the center of the excitement is at Bradfield where the lightening is banging away right at this moment. bright white lightening indeed.

  47. [Was it Nietsche? The “great man” view of history? Never subscribed to it myself, but in the current age we live in – how do you fight it?]

    from within and without

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