Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor in Victoria; Newspoll 51-49

GhostWhoVotes informs us a state Nielsen poll in The Age has Labor with a two-party lead of 52-48, and that the Greens primary vote is steady on 16 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: We now also have Newspoll which puts Labor’s lead at 51-49, from primary votes of 37 per cent for Labor, 39 per cent Liberal and 5 per cent for the Nationals. The poll also shows a striking five point drop for the Greens to 14 per cent, which is coming off an all-time high and is not replicated in Nielsen. The two pollsters also give divergent impressions of John Brumby’s popularity: whereas Nielsen has his personal rating at plus 13 (approval 53 per cent, disapproval 40 per cent), Newspoll has it at minus six (42 per cent, 48 per cent). Newspoll also has Ted Baillieu at minus six (40 per cent, 46 per cent), while Nielsen has it at evens (45 per cent). Brumby has a slightly wider lead as preferred premier from Nielsen (53-37) than Newspoll (50-36). As was the case before the federal election, the Coalition’s supporters appear to be firmer in their intentions than Labor’s.

UPDATE 2: Full tables from the Nielsen poll here, courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

310 comments on “Nielsen: 52-48 to Labor in Victoria; Newspoll 51-49”

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  2. Maybe they thought that the CA provided better value than the Greens – NSW Labor have played footsies with the Shooters for years so they probably think some accommodations can be made. I suppose it may also head off a possible 4 -1 split in North Vic

  3. Rocket at 244:

    [ I see in North Metro the Sex Party has got the first prefs of both Labor and Liberal. could they get a position in the Council? ]

    Y’know, that’s actually plausible. The Greens have a pile of small fry up the top of their ticket, with the first two notables being Stephen Mayne and Sex Party. Assuming Mayne will tank about as badly as People Power did in 2006, that means any Green surplus should go to the Sex Party as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the last few candidates being Labor #3, Sex Party, and someone like the DLP or Lib #2.

    BBP at 246:

    [ With the ALP putting the Greens before the DLP in Western Victoria, what chance do PBers think that Peter Kavanagh will be reelected? ]

    Kavanagh = gone.

  4. The fact that the ALP has preferenced the Greens ahead of the DLP in every Legislative Council region shows how worried the ALP is. This decision has nothing to do with the weird proposition that the Greens are the ALP’s allies. It has everything to do with hardheaded political reality. The ALP’s aim, as I have explained at length before, is to win government. Once it is reasonably confident of achieving that aim, its aim is to win a favourable Legislative Council; i.e., one in which it does not depend on the Greens. Thus, it is pleased that there is a DLP MLC currently and not a fourth Green. The decision to put the Greens ahead of the DLP means that the aim of winning government has completely overshadowed the aim of having a reasonable Upper House. I guess from this that the Greens have agreed to preference Labor in a lot more Legislative Assembly seats than the 15 they were reported as agreeing to earlier. To put it bluntly, Labor has decided that being held hostage to the Greens in the Upper House is a price it will pay for a chance of a majority in the Lower House.

  9. Southern Metro

    The Liberal Ticket is deceitful as they have put the Greens last. Even though their vote will never go far beyond themselves. If the Greens fell below quota (highly unlikely) a remote chance for the ALP to collect Liberal Party surplus. Even more remote is the DLP coming up the middle but they are better placed in terms of the Christian alliance

    The DLP did preferences John lenders (ALP) then went straight to the Liberal number three placing Jennifer Huppert after the Liberal Party ticket. This could be an anti Jewish pro Catholic vote.

  10. Sory I wnt by reports that Vern Hughes (group E) was connected to Mayne. He was People Party in 2006, happoy to stand corrected but the results are the same.

  11. Who’s the ‘Christian Party’? Are they the CDP, or some other brand of no-hopers trying to split the god-bothering vote three ways?

  12. Pollster

    in Sothern Metro, it could be more a ploy to get a 3 – 2 Lib ALP split rather than a 2 – 2 – 1 or 3 -1 -1 split. i.e freeze the Greens out

  14. [Who’s the ‘Christian Party’? Are they the CDP, or some other brand of no-hopers trying to split the god-bothering vote three ways?]

    They are the CDP, BoP. I see one of their candidates has previously stood for the CDP in both WA and Victoria.

  16. Thanks for attempting to answer my question
    [Rod Hagen

    …

    fredn, the advantages include reducing pressure for further Melbourne sprawl( both vertical and horizontal! )]

    Why is the Melbourne sprawl such a bad thing?

    [ , reduced impact of transport on greenhouse emissions,]

    This is the one that got me asking why. Country travel by truck, road or train takes fuel. Fuel consumption is reduced by reducing travel distance not increasing them.

    [ maintaining the strength/ viability of existing regional communities themselves, reduction of distances people in rural areas have to travel for “major centre” level health, government and educational services etc., stronger local community sense and identification than you obtain with sprawling outer suburbs, etc etc.]

    Yes, but in reality thats is the cost of living in the country, the reality is the services are being hollowed out. Why , it does not make sense to run a company from a country center. The NBN will probable deal with the communication costs, the transport cost are just going to go up and up.

    [Why a 500kVA power line to Portland? Because of an aluminium smelter that Alcoa wanted to build there and which a state government didn’t want built near Melbourne.]
    Alcoa didn’t want to build it there, it was politics.

    [ But today, instead of a power line across the state we’d be looking at renewables, eh!]

    We can only hope.

    [Why Albury? Well it was because it was thought that it might reduce pressures on both Sydney and Melbourne. It was probably a bit too adventurous then (hey, we’d only just got subscriber trunk dialling phonecalls, no such thing as the internet, the Hume Highway was a goat track, etc etc!), but with better transport infrastructure, better communications it can make good sense today. My own view , though, is that growing a lot of regional centres a reasonable bit, rather than a very small number of centres a lot, probably makes better sense still.]
    The trouble is business needs critical mass. If you look at where decentralization has work (sweden), towns specialize.

    I think we should try and build a livable Melbourne, and to be honest I think they are doing a pretty good job.

  17. Pollster,

    The DLP preferenced John Lenders highly because he was one of the six Labor MLCs who voted against abortion. It has done a similar thing with Nazih Elasmar, Adem Somyurek and Bob Smith. I’ve never heard of it being accused of being anti-Jewish before.

  18. Tony Abbott has actually said something sensible about transport in Victoria: he wants to spend $1.4billion mainly on 40 new trains.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-election-2010/libs-promise-14b-for-transport-20101114-17shj.html?from=smh_ft

    Melbourne’s rail system is bursting at the seams. The city track work to fix the bottleneck and the Regional Rail Link is one part of the solution, which the government should proceed with post- haste. But even when the track bottleneck is gone, Melbourne will still need more trains just ot cope with population increase, let alone actually iimprove services.

    Of course there is always a cloud with Abbott’s silver linings. Abbott wants to add two new stations, which will only delay trains on those lines further. They need more parking and better bus connections at the existing stations.

  20. [But today, instead of a power line across the state we’d be looking at renewables, eh!]

    Building a proper power line between Melbourne and SA via the SW would actually help renewables in Victoria greatly. Most of the good wind resources in Victoria are in the SW. There is a proposal to build a $1B wind farm in planning now. Building a decent grid connection to Melbourne would probably be enough to make it happen. The existing power grid in most States is effectively a sunk cost built to suit the coal power stations. The lines rarely run where it suits renewable energy soruces. If the reneewable suppliers have to pay for new lines as well as the power generation capacity, it is a huge competitive disadvantage in favour of existing coal stations.

  21. Socrates what Melb really needs is more grade separation. Lots of this was done as public works in the Depression, but much more complete in Sydney.

    the level crossings put a limit on service frequency on certain lines.

  23. [Pollster

    in Southern Metro, it could be more a ploy to get a 3 – 2 Lib ALP split rather than a 2 – 2 – 1 or 3 -1 -1 split. i.e freeze the Greens out]

    nonsense take a look at Antony Green sAnta vote analysis. the green have a quota in their own right. They also pick up preferences from the two of the minor parties.

    The best chance labor has is to appeal to the voters for balance to give the ALP their vote in the upper-house. This is an expensive exercise and would require considerable financial resources. Labor has 28.6% (1.72 quotas) , The Greens 20.9% (1.26 quotas) Liberal Party 41.6% (2.5 quotas) remaining 0.5 quotas

    ALP’s Huppert will have to appeal to the electorate for a 2: 2: 1 result to maintain checks and balances and in order to do so vote Labor in the upper house. For this to be successful the Greens would also need to come on board and say likewise. Clearly there has been some double dealing swinging going on between the Sex Party and the Liberals

  24. Rocket

    No argument with the grade separations either. However ultimately you can control crossings to give all the capacity to the trains. It is more for safety and traffic capacity (not rail capacity) reasons that they shoudl do them. When I first started working in transprot Brisbane grade separated most crossings on high frequency lines in the 1980s. I don’t understand what has taken Melbourne so long, given that their rail system carries more than twice as many people!

    From people I speak to the main limits on runnign more frequent trains on Melbourne lines are:
    – CBD track and station capacity
    – rolling stock (i.e. too few trains)
    – condition of system, especially catenary power; needs $2B to replace urgently.

    In many ways Kennet is to blame for this more than Labor. It is the usual story when you privatise a service that is essential but doesn’t make a profit. Private operators run it into the ground to break even, underspending on maintenance. Look at the rail buckling in the heat waves – Qld rail put in concrete sleepers on most mainlines by the mid 90s.

  25. [The DLP preference John Lenders highly because he was one of the six Labor MLCs who voted against abortion. It has done a similar thing with Nazih El Asmar, Adem Somyurek and Bob Smith. I’ve never heard of it being accused of being anti-Jewish before.]

    This that BS. And you know it. John Lenders will be elected second and he will never see your preferences.

    I supported a deal with the DLP and now clearly there should not be one. The DLP has handed the Liberal Party control of the upper house. A 2: 2: 1: option will be best. My analysis of the Senate vote shows that the DLP will not come close in Southern Metro. You are nothing but a feeder to the Liberal party ticket. How else can you explain jumping to the Liberal Number three?

  26. BTW I still think the overall direction of transport planning in Melbourne is correct; Regioanl Rail Link is a good project. It is just that more is still needed. Lynne Kosky was no Alannah McTiernan.

    For that matter, I still think that overall Labor has been a good governent in Victoria too, dubious plannign decisions aside. Lets hope they remember to focus on what they have done right in the campaign.

  28. Chris Curtis

    agree , winning govt is and has to be priority

    but Q is what will Libs do in lower House ,
    and as there last pref of Greens in Upper serves no purpose , is this a for runner of lower house Liberal 2nd pref Greens sweet hart

  29. The ABC has just reported that the Coalition has preferenced the Greens last in all Upper and Lower House seats. Any confirmation?

  33. Pollster,

    What I said is completely true. Look at the group voting tickets.

    What’s this “you” and “your” business”? I am not the DLP. I am not a member of the DLP. Don’t you pay attention to anything?

  34. Chris

    How does the DLP justify jumping to the Liberal number three( Skipping the two in front) because you know that the first two Liberal candidates along with John lenders will be elected before you are eliminated. I expect you may go out before the Sex Party if not the one following. I have not looked at Western Victoria but I now hope the ALP but the DLP last. There also appears to be a Catholic Protestant split as Vern Hughes has been placed in between you both. Yep the DLP are rats were rats and still are rats.

  35. [According to ABC news the Coalition is putting the Greens last in all Lower House seats]

    This will be good news but you sure its the lower house and not the upper house.

  38. I did, madcyril.

    Ron,

    I’d like to hear more on this because it makes it much harder for the Greens to win any Lower House seats and thus much more likely that we will see the Labor government returned in its own right.

  39. I apologize if that is not the case. Jennifer Huppert is one of the better performers in the Red Morgue she would have made a good Planning Minister.

  40. Chris

    not convinced that ABC is correct until see other sourses and I did not expect Libs to pref Greens last in lower House as youse guys say ABC says , and so doubtful that perhaps ABC misspoke lower instead of upper

  41. Winning on stray Liberal Preferences will be hard for the Greens but it is still possible in Melbourne, Richmond and Brunswick. In Brunswick Cleary preferences will help the Greens except if he gets ahead of the Liberals who will then preference him ahead of the ALP and Greens to and thus almost certainly push him past the Greens.

  42. Looks like the DLP will lose in Western Victoria and has no chance in Northern victoria. So the good news is they are out of the contest.

  43. I am beginning to adopt the view that we need to abolish the above0-the-line voting system or embrace a party list system instead of STV.

  45. Pollster,

    The DLP will have to provide its own justification. For years it has preferenced on the basis of candidates’ attitudes to abortion, irrespective of party and irrespective of candidate order.

    The DLP were never “rats”, but I am going to go and watch the program on the history of Scotland rather than go over old ground yet again.

    Yes, you have missed a fair bit. I am the DLP candidate who stood for Parliament in the 1970s and I am proud to have done so. My membership of the DLP ended when the DLP voted to disband in 1978. I never joined the new DLP. I am a member of the ALP, which I joined because of the destructive rampage of the last Liberal government of this state. All this I have said before. You may not have known these facts, but you should not jump to conclusions.

  46. After the liberals upper house prefs I did wonder whether they were about to do the ‘grand gesture’ and do the same in the lower house. They would certainly get a lot of publicity, and it would sure get Murdoch, and thus the heraldsun and Australian onside. maybe they sniff victory in their own right?

  47. Pollster 293

    I agree with Antony Green – there should be a capacity for ‘above the line’ presences. I think they have them in NSW. It would mean no ‘ungrouped’ column at the end, which would be no great loss- if you want to run as an independent you need at least one running mate.

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