Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports a federal Nielsen poll to be published in tomorrow’s Fairfax broadsheets will show the Coalition, unchanged on last month. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes further relates the primary votes are Labor 35 per cent (up one point), Coalition 43 per cent (steady) and Greens 13 per cent (down one), and the poll also shows support for gay marriage at 57 per cent and opposition at 37 per cent.

UPDATE 2: The poll finds little change in the leaders’ personal ratings. Julia Gillard is stable on both approval (54 per cent) and disapproval (39 per cent), while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 47 per cent and down two on disapproval to 48 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53 per cent (steady) to 40 per cent (up a point). The Coalition leads as best party to handle interest rates (47 per cent to 33 per cent) and create greater competition between the banks (46 per cent to 32 per cent). Fifty-five per cent now believe the government should serve a full term, against 42 per cent who would like a new election as soon as possible.

UPDATE 3: Essential Research also has the Coalition leading 51-49, for the third week running. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is at 43 per cent, down two on a month ago, and her disapproval up one to 38 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up a point on approval to 40 per cent and down five on disapproval to 40 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 49-33 to 45-34. There are also questions on viewing of sport on free-to-air and pay television, presumably apropos of the anti-siphoning issue – although opinions on this are not engaged directly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

857 comments on “Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 15 of 18
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  1. [too love my motor racing and Top Gear. Hope your OH is enjoying doing up the old car. My dad is a walking encyclopedia when it comes to old cars ]

    is he i often wish there was blog like this for car enthusiasts.

    He may like a sub for the English Classic car for christmas they have a special at the moment.

  2. mysay,

    I am a mad motorsport fan and had the privilege of being a freelance journalist for motorsport for years. It has only been in recent years that motorsport coverage has become mainstream. Before that we had to fight tooth and nail to get the smallest amount of broadcast time and other sports always won hands-down if it came to competing for the same timeslot.

    If they drop it I will join the march with you – with all my motorsport friends!

  3. [Bird of paradoxPosted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 8:09 pm | PermalinkFrank at 636:
    Agreed – especially in WA Even though Labor didn’t gain any seats in WA – We held the omes we had. Under Rudd it would’ve been a near total wipeout.
    You forgot Hasluck, and the notionally Labor Swan. If 3 seats out of 15 isn’t a near-total wipeout, I’m not sure what is
    ]

    Well thanks to the Black Sisterhood where they preferenced each other Hasluck got the result they deserved.

  4. our is a 71 bright red beamer when we got married we had a white one well he did. including a VW. then along came baby and i said how can i fit a pram in these cars.
    so sold them for some horried station wagon with no class.

    he vowed he would one day get a beamer well found it a couple of years ago in an shed paid 1000 for it. its looking good new leather seats new paint job original colour doesn’t go very far as he doesn’t want it to get dirty, loves washing cars.
    when the kids turn up they know if they stay long enough dad will wash the car. lol

  5. David,

    Go Harry! I am thinking that the Speaker had words behind the scenes about behaviour in the chamber, because he definitely is playing ‘Dirty Harry’ and getting tough on them.

  6. [Posted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 8:16 pm | Permalink
    Harry withdraws the naming of Andrews and kicked him out for an hour]

    now what did he say.

  7. [Frank CalabresePosted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 8:14 pm | PermalinkBird of paradoxPosted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 8:09 pm | PermalinkFrank at 636:
    Agreed – especially in WA Even though Labor didn’t gain any seats in WA – We held the omes we had. Under Rudd it would’ve been a near total wipeout.
    You forgot Hasluck, and the notionally Labor Swan. If 3 seats out of 15 isn’t a near-total wipeout, I’m not sure what is
    ]

    Try 0 or 1 out of 15.

  8. Once again Pyne has made a dork of himself, when he realised Harry Jenkins was not fooling around with points of order the weal little toad ran for cover and left it to Bronnie and Andrews, what a weasel. Opposition again a shambles.

  9. Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 8:14 pm | Permalink
    mysay,

    [I am a mad motorsport fan and had the privilege of being a freelance journalist for motorsport for years. It has only been in recent years that motorsport coverage has become mainstream. Before that we had to fight tooth and nail to get the smallest amount of broadcast time and other sports always won hands-down if it came to competing for the same timeslot.

    If they drop it I will join the march with you – with all my motorsport friends]

    perhaps we should get in first and find out where these three are lol
    may be some emails some where and tell them how we love their channel.

  10. My say.. he told Andrews to go away and sleep on what he said and maybe would wake up in the morning knowing he made a fool of himself.

  11. my say,

    I know how it goes, before I had kids I refused to buy anything except sports cars. Now, much to my shame I am driving the standard mummy SUV! My brother is a mad car collectors but he collects shelby’s and they are way too rich for my blood.

    The beamer sounds great, and I understand totally about the car washing thing!

  12. David@698

    broadcasting bill got through 73 to 72

    730 report mentioned that the government is going to reduce the confidentially
    period on the NBN details to several weeks. Maybe just maybe that may get
    Mr X across the line.

  13. [Rod, I agree that the gay marriage issue is one problem that needs to be resolved – and as a result, I have voted Green in protest against the ALP policy on this matter for a number of years.]

    Oh, you’ve done it now Darren! Wait ’til the heresy police arrive!

    [But I also can acknowledge there would be some political fallout from the ferals and their bogans if Labor did take this issue on in such a precarious state. As a result, I think it’s quite appropriate to debate the timing of this issue – of course any sensible person would agree that there is no substance to the debate of whether to allow it, but simply when.]

    b_g’s interest this morning was largely in whether a union leader like De Bruyn should reflect the views of the members of his union when speaking in public on such matters, or whether he was speaking as an individual, or whether he was speaking as a Labor official, when he attacked Gillard for allowing the Green’s motion on further discussions about gay marriage through. Seemed like interesting questions to me, and worthy of further thoughts about the history of the Labor party etc. etc. It is not really the ferals or the bogans that Labor is worried about with respect to the “gay marriage” question, I suspect. It is the powerful Catholic right lobby within the party itself.

    But you are for it now! “Voted Greens ” in protest AND think that “there is no substance to the debate of whether to allow it, but simply when”. Such things will have you up on charges of grievous apostasy here from some of the “true believers” club I’m afraid!

  14. Once again the sad part is, most of the country do not see and hear just how disgraceful the Opposition is.
    Time for after work drinks and a meal, oh any one know if the red terror is back on 7-30 report please.

  15. The Libs seemed to have no idea about things. Albanese tabled the new sitting pattern and the Libs wanted to debate it, not realizing that tabling a document means nothing and they’ll get their chance to debate it later. Harry had to set them right, again. Andrews was chucked out for nothing. Was that a sarcastic bow as he left, or genuine respect for Harry?

  16. [Space Kidette
    Posted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 8:21 pm | Permalink
    my say,

    I know how it goes, before I had kids I refused to buy anything except sports cars. Now, much to my shame I am driving the standard mummy SUV! My brother is a mad car collectors but he collects shelby’s and they are way too rich for my blood.

    The beamer sounds great, and I understand totally about the car washing thing!]

    above my head here in the study i have he has,4 red Porsche, a bentley
    a jag and Porsche 356 , beetles Carmen gear. and 4 beamers. all models of course.

    went for drive in hut mobile at the weekend.

    gosh show me a link to Shelby i dont know them but bet he does.

  17. Attempted to post a comment on the story below in the OO……..was critical that their rag had all but become the official propaganda organ of the Coal…..added that their comments section was little more than an echo chamber for Fibs supporters…

    Unsurprisingly my comments were not published.

    They are in danger of alienating approx 50% of the Australian populace with their obsession to present this govt in the most negative light they can. Add to that their intention to place their rag behind a paywall next year, and I can’t see how they can make a buck….

    Add to that the plethora of balanced/fair and informed bloggers (such as Grogs) that will pop up like mushrooms when the NBN goes live……and the OO is history!!! Can’t come a moment too soon…..

     http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/pm-denies-bowing-to-greens-with-deal-to-subject-nbn-sale-to-greater-scrutiny/story-fn59niix-1225958581592 

  18. My Say,

    Sounds like my kind of study. I collect old motoring tin signs! Can’t afford the time for anything else with two little cherubs!

    Here is a shelby linkz:

  19. Gus,
    [if true this is REALLY SCARY]
    High probability it is true going on the msm’s form for using fb to pad out its news segments.

    My Facebook has the tightest privacy settings I can set. My sons are in IT, and on their advice none of our fb accounts are in real names or link back to our real email accounts. Same with my Twitter, You-tube accounts etc.

    AND I do NOT use my facebook id to log into other websites. Too much info about me in one place if I do that. (I deliberately try to keep the streams of my web-life separate.)

    For instance, no photos of me exist on FB and the option to have my id ‘tagged’ in other peoples photos is turned off. The msm will not be raiding my FB identity if we are unfortunate enough to be involved in a tragedy, the bloodsucking, pus-erupting @rse-boil, tape-worm infested ghouls.

    And I hate seeing in the news, when someone loses their life i.e. victim of murder, car accident, how a fb site has xx number of tributes posted and then they show the posts on the news-screen. Then the fb page gets a pile of offensive posts because, well if you open your page up to everyone you will, and then that is another news story. (This happened in the last week or so.)

    Scum. Grave-robbers have more morals. {Insert phrase starting with “bloodsucking…”}

  20. markjs,

    I went from every comment being published to every comment not being published (started after I started on PB). I complained here and hey presto I am back to every comment being published again – go figure!

  21. The Milat family seems to have a gene for serial killing. I can’t recall another family with metachronous serial killers.

    [A RELATIVE of serial killer Ivan Milat has today been charged with the murder of a teenager in the Belanglo State Forest.

    Police found the body of the young male in a shallow grave on Sunday night, in the notorious killing fields on the southern highlands of NSW.]

    http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/national/body-found-in-belanglostate-forest/story-e6frea8c-1225958377809

  22. Victoria wasn’t Harry calling a division, Albo presented a paper, Jenkins asked for nays, there were none so he went on to private members biz, then Prissie demanded a division on another matter which he said Albo had agreed to, Harry said too late different matter being discussed, go away. Then the agrieved rabble refused to accept his ruling. Andrews sent to bed, Pyne slunk away Bronnie told to sit and be quiet, harry puts magnum back in holster, very annoyed.

  23. Space Kidette@732

    markjs,

    I went from every comment being published to every comment not being published (started after I started on PB). I complained here and hey presto I am back to every comment being published again – go figure!

    I’ve had several refused by the OO………but not complaining……..wear it as a badge of honour… 🙂

  24. Dave excellent, the X factor to be won , hopefully the Indies in the House of Reps will take him to dinner and work him over. Should be an interesting day tomorrow, so far Abbotts mob cannot take a trick. Must say Govt Chief Whip and Albanese doing a fine job of organisation and working with the Indies.

  25. Frank at 710:

    [ Try 0 or 1 out of 15. ]

    Ahh, gotcha. So 20% of the seats in parliament is a good result? I’ll have to remember that if WA Labor get reduced to 12 seats in two years time. These are the seats they would lose with a result like that (reading straight down the post-2008 pendulum):

    Albany
    Forrestfield
    Kwinana
    Collie-Preston
    Balcatta
    North West
    Joondalup
    Pilbara
    West Swan
    Gosnells
    Belmont
    Kimberley
    Perth
    Midland
    Mindarie
    Maylands

    A good result, eh?

  26. [The Milat family seems to have a gene for serial killing. I can’t recall another family with metachronous serial killers.]

    To be a serial killer one must commit a series of killings. So far the Milat boy has been connected to just one killing.

  27. Dio
    [A nutter from the US KKK recently admitted to defacing tribute Facebook sites.]
    That wouldn’t surprise me. More brain cells in an amoeba.

  28. Just checked the votes Gus he was there.
    NATIONAL BROADCASTING LEGISLATION AMENDMENT BILL 2010—DEFERRED DIVISION

    The order of the day having been read for the further consideration of the bill, 8:00:31 PM—

    The following question, on which a division had been called for and deferred in accordance with standing order 133, was put—

    Question—That the bill be now read a second time, 8:00:46 PM.

    [Div No. 29], 8:00:53 PM to 8:08:36 PM, Ayes 74, Noes 73

    The House divided (the Speaker, Mr Jenkins, in the Chair)—

    AYES, 74

    Mr Adams

    Mr Dreyfus

    Dr M. J. Kelly

    Ms Rishworth

    Mr Albanese

    Mrs Elliot

    Ms King

    Ms Rowland

    Mr Bandt

    Ms Ellis

    Dr Leigh

    Ms Roxon

    Ms Bird

    Dr Emerson

    Ms Livermore

    Mr Rudd

    Mr Bowen

    Mr L. D. T. Ferguson

    Mr Lyons

    Ms Saffin

    Mr Bradbury

    Mr M. J. Ferguson

    Mr McClelland

    Mr Shorten

    Ms Brodtmann

    Mr Fitzgibbon

    Ms Macklin

    Mr Sidebottom

    Ms A. E. Burke

    Mr Garrett

    Mr Marles

    Mr S. F. Smith

    Mr A. S. Burke

    Mr Georganas

    Mr Melham

    Ms Smyth

    Mr Butler

    Mr Gibbons

    Mr Mitchell

    Mr Snowdon

    Mr Byrne

    Ms Gillard

    Mr Murphy

    Mr Swan

    Mr Champion

    Mr Gray

    Mr Neumann

    Mr Symon

    Mr Cheeseman

    Ms Grierson

    Mr Oakeshott

    Mr C. R. Thomson

    Mr Clare

    Mr Griffin

    Mr O’Connor

    Mr K. J. Thomson

    Ms Collins

    Ms Hall*

    Ms O’Neill

    Ms Vamvakinou

    Mr Combet

    Mr Hayes*

    Ms Owens

    Mr Wilkie

    Mr Crean

    Mr Husic

    Ms Parke

    Mr Zappia

    Mr Danby

    Mr S. P. Jones

    Mr Perrett

    Mrs D’Ath

    Mr Katter

    Mr Ripoll

    NOES, 73

    Mr Abbott

    Mr Forrest

    Ms Marino

    Mr Secker*

    Mr Alexander

    Mr Frydenberg

    Mrs Markus

    Mr Simpkins

    Mr K. J. Andrews

    Ms Gambaro

    Mr Matheson

    Mr Slipper

    Mrs K. L. Andrews

    Mrs Gash

    Mrs Mirabella

    Mr A. D. H. Smith

    Mr Baldwin

    Mrs Griggs

    Mr Morrison

    Mr Somlyay

    Mr Billson

    Mr Haase

    Mrs Moylan

    Dr Southcott

    Mrs B. K. Bishop

    Mr Hartsuyker

    Mr Neville

    Dr Stone

    Mr Briggs

    Mr A. G. Hawke

    Mr O’Dowd

    Mr Tehan

    Mr Broadbent

    Mr Hockey

    Ms O’Dwyer

    Mr Truss

    Mr Buchholz

    Mr Hunt

    Mrs Prentice

    Mr Tudge

    Mr Chester

    Mr Irons

    Mr Pyne

    Mr Turnbull

    Mr Christensen

    Dr Jensen

    Mr Ramsey

    Mr van Manen

    Mr Ciobo

    Mr E. T. Jones

    Mr Randall

    Mr Vasta

    Mr Cobb

    Mr Keenan

    Mr Robb

    Dr Washer

    Mr Coulton*

    Mr C. Kelly

    Mr Robert

    Mr Windsor

    Mr Crook

    Mr Laming

    Wyatt Roy

    Mr Wyatt

    Mr Dutton

    Ms Ley

    Mr Ruddock

    Mr Entsch

    Mr McCormack

    Mr Schultz

    Mr Fletcher

    Mr Macfarlane

    Mr Scott

    * Tellers

    Pairs

    Ms Plibersek Ms J. Bishop

    Bill read a second time, 8:08:49 PM.

  29. [Bird of paradoxPosted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 8:38 pm | PermalinkFrank at 710:
    Try 0 or 1 out of 15.
    Ahh, gotcha. So 20% of the seats in parliament is a good result? I’ll have to remember that if WA Labor get reduced to 12 seats in two years time. These are the seats they would lose with a result like that (reading straight down the post-2008 pendulum):
    Albany
    Forrestfield
    Kwinana
    Collie-Preston
    Balcatta
    North West
    Joondalup
    Pilbara
    West Swan
    Gosnells
    Belmont
    Kimberley
    Perth
    Midland
    Mindarie
    Maylands
    A good result, eh?
    ]

    no, and you don’t get it as usual.

    A lot of thosise “Notional” ALP seats caused by the reshuffle were just that – notional – the MSM ensured they stayed with their incumbants – Irons in Swan, Randall in Canning.

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