Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports a federal Nielsen poll to be published in tomorrow’s Fairfax broadsheets will show the Coalition, unchanged on last month. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes further relates the primary votes are Labor 35 per cent (up one point), Coalition 43 per cent (steady) and Greens 13 per cent (down one), and the poll also shows support for gay marriage at 57 per cent and opposition at 37 per cent.

UPDATE 2: The poll finds little change in the leaders’ personal ratings. Julia Gillard is stable on both approval (54 per cent) and disapproval (39 per cent), while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 47 per cent and down two on disapproval to 48 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53 per cent (steady) to 40 per cent (up a point). The Coalition leads as best party to handle interest rates (47 per cent to 33 per cent) and create greater competition between the banks (46 per cent to 32 per cent). Fifty-five per cent now believe the government should serve a full term, against 42 per cent who would like a new election as soon as possible.

UPDATE 3: Essential Research also has the Coalition leading 51-49, for the third week running. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is at 43 per cent, down two on a month ago, and her disapproval up one to 38 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up a point on approval to 40 per cent and down five on disapproval to 40 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 49-33 to 45-34. There are also questions on viewing of sport on free-to-air and pay television, presumably apropos of the anti-siphoning issue – although opinions on this are not engaged directly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

857 comments on “Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 16 of 18
1 … 15 16 17 18

  2. On De Bruyn, I just want to say that his rant helped me make my decision to quit the union this week. I’ll admit that it is a completely different union, however the idea that a union rep should be discussing social policy rather than working conditions and wages enraged me. Plus I don’t want my union dues going to support the next SA Labor party election campaign considering the state Labor govt has ripped away public sector worker’s entitlements through legislation, ignoring the EB process completely. Made me feel like a sucker that’s been taken for a ride.

  3. Thanks Dee, will bookmark for later. Who would have thought things would be so bad with the reicht um right, that we would be listening with interest to Fraser? 😮

  4. [The ALP has to do the best it can fighting in the hostile territory of the MSM. You and I and dave and b_g all agree the MSM is hostile. But we cannot just take our bat and ball and go home, we have to do the best we can in dealing with the MSM. We will never get an easy ride there but we can do something to improve our position.]

    The Fijians didn’t muck round with his biased shennanigans. They immediately legislated for no foreign ownership of media and gave him a very short period to unload it to locals.

    Problem solved.

  5. [Thanks Dee, will bookmark for later. Who would have thought things would be so bad with the reicht um right, that we would be listening with interest to Fraser?]
    He makes a hell of a lot of good points on many issues including on media monopoly.

  8. drake

    [To be a serial killer one must commit a series of killings. So far the Milat boy has been connected to just one killing.]

    But to demonstrate that you have the gene of a serial killer, you don’t.

    Most people who would become serial killers get caught before they can actually become SKs.

  9. Had to go out for dinner – came home and switched on APAC to see Andrews in trouble and Harry saying he was sick of their disruption. Thanks to the PBers who posted (aboave) what it was all about. Harry looked as tho he was going to explode and Andrews looked a proper dork.

    Grog will probably post something about it but will the MSM go hard about the Oppn’s disruption or will they think it is great fun.

  11. victoria
    [the forum with Malcolm Fraser and Professor Manne was very interesting. I gather you found it interesting as well.]
    Very much so! I’m gobsmacked that quite a few of his opinions reflect mine. 😯
    Now I know why some Coalition hacks are saying he belongs with the ALP.

  12. [@MayneReport The RSPT tax grab politicised a whole generation of miners – hence Gina Rinehart buying 10% of Channel Ten for political protection.]

    my say

    there is your answer

  15. [The combination of Mr Packer, Mr Gordon, Ms Rinehart and Mr Murdoch means Ten has four strongly-opinionated and wealthy shareholders. ]

    There goes the last vestige of fair reporting via Bonge.

  17. @shiftaling # 752
    Hold off with your union dues state convention this Saturday and the left leaning unions want and will be giving it to Rann,Foley et al! Not sure if we have the numbers yet! but wait and see!

  18. [William BowePosted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 8:59 pm | PermalinkA lot of thosise “Notional” ALP seats caused by the reshuffle were just that – notional
    By “a lot”, you mean “one”.
    ]

    Swan, Stirling and Hasluck.

  19. SK

    Technically, a serial killer has to kill 3+ “random” victims on separate occasions with a “cooling off” period in between.

    If you kill one or two and then get caught, you aren’t considered to be a serial killer. But many of those would continue if they weren’t caught and then meet the SK definition.

  21. Dee

    I found some comments by Mr Fraser very pertinent. His comments about the culture that Howard and Hanson cultivated in the electorate is going to take a long time to change. In principal, that is what Labor have to deal with. Ultimately, as I mentioned on previous posts, the election outcome was in part due to racism and fear. What Fraser says bears this out. Abbott has continued with this meme, and I think Labor above all else, is fighting for the hearts and minds of Australian people.

  23. I’m sorry Frank, you’ve lost me. By “notional” ALP seat, I assume you to mean one with a Liberal member which had a Labor margin after the redistribution. This only applied to Swan. Hasluck had a Labor member, and Stirling had a Liberal margin.

  24. [victoriaPosted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 9:04 pm | PermalinkDee
    I found some comments by Mr Fraser very pertinent. His comments about the culture that Howard and Hanson cultivated in the electorate is going to take a long time to change. In principal, that is what Labor have to deal with. Ultimately, as I mentioned on previous posts, the election outcome was in part due to racism and fear. What Fraser says bears this out. Abbott has continued with this meme, and I think Labor above all else, is fighting for the hearts and minds of Australian people.
    ]

    And dealing with the types on 2GB who praise John Howard as being the best PM ever.

  27. Harry Jenkins seems a good natured likeable character, but he is a lousy Speaker.

    He is basically a weak person, never sticks to his admonitions of members, and as a result the Opposition treat him with contempt by continually taking points of order on matters he has already ruled on. He should just sit them down and say “I have ruled on this matter and there will be no further points of order on my ruling”.

    Pyne, Abbott and company continue yapping when the Speaker is talking, and Jenkins does nothing about it. His “warning” of members amounts to nothing as the Opposition knows he will not act.

    I think Jenkins feels (incorrectly) that being “nice” to the Opposition will ensure their respect. It doesn’t. That’s why they wanted him as Speaker. They know he is weak.

    He holds a safe Labor seat, so, when Labor’s fortunes improve a little more, Julia should consider offering him a diplomatic posting, such as British High Commissioner or some posting in Ireland. Surely they would retain his seat????????

  28. So Diogs are you saying that serial killing is in the genes?

    What about a persons upbringing?

    Don’t ask women, they probably think it’s in the numbers or star signs 😆

  29. feeney,

    I don’t know if you watched QT today but Harry finally got tough. He started chucking – I think the count is three today, but someone here may correct that number.

  30. [To be a serial killer one must commit a series of killings. So far the Milat boy has been connected to just one killing.]

    [But to demonstrate that you have the gene of a serial killer, you don’t.

    Most people who would become serial killers get caught before they can actually become SKs]

    Your logic assumes that the single killing was motivated by a homocidal gene. What if the facts and circumstances where such that the killing was a reasonable act of self-defence or a response to overwhelming provocation?

  31. [William BowePosted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 9:07 pm | PermalinkI’m sorry Frank, you’ve lost me. By “notional” ALP seat, I assume you to mean one with a Liberal member which had a Labor margin after the redistribution. This only applied to Swan. Hasluck had a Labor member, and Stirling had a Liberal margin.
    ]

    Yes, you are correct – but Bird was implying that wasn’t a complete wpeout- I( pointed out that under Rudd and the original Mining Tax Labor would’ve been lucky to have held 1, or at best 2 seats.

    And as for his Laundry List – I can tell you that Rita Saffioti and Roberts will sleep soundly in their beds – and as for Swan Hills, the people of ellenbrook are having second thoughts on the performance of their local member.

  32. I think australia is still inherently racist

    the vietnamese boat people awoke an unspoken fear

    the next wave of boat people evoked some deep seated hatreds

    keating tried to reorient our thinking

    howard effectively performed a lobotomy on the “social conscience”

    we have along and tortourous path back to the “middle ground”

    btw ken wyatt has disappointed me v muchly

  35. @ Jason 767
    I hope you are right, I have long supported my union however it has also been a long time since I could stomach voting for SA Labor and I would need to see some real headway in bargaining for PS workers’ interests before I could wish another dollar of my union dues go towards their reelection

  36. [GusfacePosted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 9:12 pm | PermalinkI think australia is still inherently racist
    the vietnamese boat people awoke an unspoken fear
    the next wave of boat people evoked some deep seated hatreds
    keating tried to reorient our thinking
    howard effectively performed a lobotomy on the “social conscience”
    we have along and tortourous path back to the “middle ground”
    btw ken wyatt has disappointed me v muchly
    ]

    Ken Wyatt is a mouse – when it came to the WA Libs and indigineous rights re the Gas hub, he was very silent on the issue.

    I’m afraid he is being played like a violin by certain Lib Masters.

  38. Drake
    Serial killers by definition are not those acting in self defence or to provocation. I have a book around here somewhere written by the first person in the FBI to be what would now be called a profiler. The work took a bit of a personal toll on him, though. (I will search it out.)

  39. [GusfacePosted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 9:19 pm | Permalinkfrank
    yep
    and he has been SILENT on too many other issues
    You were right frank
    ]

    Indigenous Pollies elected by the Fibs has always ended in tears – Neville Bonner resigned from the Libs – The Libs treat them like their ancestors were treated when they employed them as Stockmen etc.

  45. shiftaling,
    cant promise anything we may fail Saturday in getting a transfer to Jay Weatherall, but Rann etc will know it will happen before this term is over!
    Now that enough of the unions are annoyed!

  47. I have been interested in this area since I was sixteen, before the subject was popular for tv series. I blame Quincy ME.

    btw who is swmbo?

  48. Centre

    [So Diogs are you saying that serial killing is in the genes?]

    Definitely not. This case is an exception. As I said, I can’t think of another case like it. The aphorism is “SK’s aren’t born; they are made.”

    drake

    [What if the facts and circumstances where such that the killing was a reasonable act of self-defence or a response to overwhelming provocation?]

    That is a possibility, albeit remote.

  50. [@778
    Mindhunter, by John Douglas, I picked it up in an op shop.]

    Puff,

    Thanks for that.

    Dio,

    What was that serial killer book you were reading?

    I recently read the autobiography of Robert Kuklinski. He was a “freelance” contract killer for many crime families in the US. He murdered 287 people. A very twisted individual undoubtedly possessed of a Space Kidette gene.

Comments Page 16 of 18
1 … 15 16 17 18

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *