Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports a federal Nielsen poll to be published in tomorrow’s Fairfax broadsheets will show the Coalition, unchanged on last month. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes further relates the primary votes are Labor 35 per cent (up one point), Coalition 43 per cent (steady) and Greens 13 per cent (down one), and the poll also shows support for gay marriage at 57 per cent and opposition at 37 per cent.

UPDATE 2: The poll finds little change in the leaders’ personal ratings. Julia Gillard is stable on both approval (54 per cent) and disapproval (39 per cent), while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 47 per cent and down two on disapproval to 48 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53 per cent (steady) to 40 per cent (up a point). The Coalition leads as best party to handle interest rates (47 per cent to 33 per cent) and create greater competition between the banks (46 per cent to 32 per cent). Fifty-five per cent now believe the government should serve a full term, against 42 per cent who would like a new election as soon as possible.

UPDATE 3: Essential Research also has the Coalition leading 51-49, for the third week running. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is at 43 per cent, down two on a month ago, and her disapproval up one to 38 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up a point on approval to 40 per cent and down five on disapproval to 40 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 49-33 to 45-34. There are also questions on viewing of sport on free-to-air and pay television, presumably apropos of the anti-siphoning issue – although opinions on this are not engaged directly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

857 comments on “Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 3 of 18
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  1. Yes I get the feeling Senator X is starting to feel the cold hand of irrelevance that will be his fate come July 2011. Can’t come soon enough as far as I’m concerned.

  2. [They’re things economists are trained to see but to which non-economists are often oblivious.]

    I like this line from Gittins. Its incredibly pompous and makes the reader turn off then and there.

  4. Not having a provision to allow for the sensible privatisation of NBN Co is typical Greens muddled thinking. The Libs will just privatise NBN Co when they get back in just like with the disastrous Telstra privatisation and use the proceeds for tax cuts for the rich. The coalition is currently ahead in the polls, their return to Treasury benches sometime, even at the next election {shudder} cannot be ruled out.

    It is best to have the ability to sell NBN Co in a sensible manner and use the proceeds for further valuable, productive infrastructure.

    The Greens policy making process reminds me of a gaggle of schoolgirls enjoying their first bong.

  5. Not having a provision to allow for the sensible privatisation of NBN Co is typical Greens muddled thinking. The Libs will just privatise NBN Co when they get back in just like with the disastrous Telstra privatisation and use the proceeds for tax cuts for the rich. The coalition is currently ahead in the polls, their return to Treasury benches sometime, even at the next election {shudder} cannot be ruled out.

    It is best to have the ability to sell NBN Co in a sensible manner and use the proceeds for further valuable, productive infrastructure.

    The Greens policy making process reminds me of a gaggle of schoolgirls enjoying their first bong.

  6. [Fifty-five per cent now believe the government should serve a full term, against 42 per cent who would like a new election as soon as possible.]

    i think the above now indicates things are settling down, may be if it wasn’t for hockey and uniformed people thinking he can actually make the banks do something which he cannot , things may have jumped a point in our favour early days i still say it will be march or April even the new senate.
    very confused people out there who have no idea about minority gov.
    was there a question about boats.

  7. Mr,. Fielding may want a good legacy, to go out on.
    not like the leader of the democrates and the gst thats all i can remember about her.

  8. BH,

    I think a lot of those journalists are starting to realise their days are numbered. The print mags days are numbered, sales are falling, the paywall options are not looking like they will arrest the revenue slump, and soon heads will roll.

    Paying homage to their media baron bosses and their paypackets will continue until they are given the chop.

  10. [They’re things economists are trained to see but to which non-economists are often oblivious]

    If you inversed this quote it would make sense.

    [They’re the things that non-economists are able to see but to which trained economists are often oblivious.]

    That’s better.

  12. [Two Party Preferred: Labor 49

    I did my bit for the party, answered all questions in the positive for Labor. Interesting first eligibility question was, are you aged between 21 and 39?
    I asked if no, what next? The pollster said..only interviewing that age range.
    I add that for what its worth.]

    mortage belt how interesting is that, how can this be an overall poll then,

    mm if i get that question i am 21 again yipee, o but no dont think i want go through that again.

  13. [bg, Anti pokies comes to mind, but after that I’d struggle.]

    Yep, I couldn’t get past that either. He seems to run on that platform but otherwise he is appears to be a dissaffected conservative.

  16. [GEOFFREY – according to Malcolm Turnbull the NBN will cost families $65 a month – so according to Malcolm, it’s a winner.

    Further, the allegation is that the NBN will have too much capacity – not too little.]

    Based on Gittins argument the Snowy mountains scheme would have been building too much electricity generation capacity therefore don’t proceed.

  17. Just thinking about OzPol Tragic and hoping he is OK. I have never lost anyone as close as my partner. I can’t imagine what that would be like. But even when I have lost those close and my world fades to grey, it remains incomprehensible that life goes on around you unabated. In those moments of grief, I have taken a helicopter view of the world and see our civilisation carrying on the way ants would in their colony. We stop, but the world doesn’t and this makes no sense. Ozpol eulogised his partners loss with an Auden poem. I think this one is its twin.

    [About suffering they were never wrong,
    The Old Masters; how well, they understood
    Its human position; how it takes place
    While someone else is eating or opening a window or just walking dully along;
    How, when the aged are reverently, passionately waiting
    For the miraculous birth, there always must be
    Children who did not specially want it to happen, skating
    On a pond at the edge of the wood:
    They never forgot
    That even the dreadful martyrdom must run its course
    Anyhow in a corner, some untidy spot
    Where the dogs go on with their doggy life and the torturer’s horse
    Scratches its innocent behind on a tree.
    In Breughel’s Icarus, for instance: how everything turns away
    Quite leisurely from the disaster; the ploughman may
    Have heard the splash, the forsaken cry,
    But for him it was not an important failure; the sun shone
    As it had to on the white legs disappearing into the green
    Water; and the expensive delicate ship that must have seen
    Something amazing, a boy falling out of the sky,
    had somewhere to get to and sailed calmly on. ]

    http://poetrypages.lemon8.nl/life/musee/museebeauxarts.htm

  18. Political animal

    LOL, lets have a look at the history of privatisation, the ALP privatised Qantas, CBA, they are privatising QR rail, they want to privatise electricity in NSW …. yeah lets blame all privatisation (Telstra) on the Liberals LOL

    The facts are very few government of any civilised country in the world owns their own Telecommunication network, unless the country is very small or communist

  19. Phil Coorey on the Gay Marriage issue. He outlines the history of the internal ALP debate

    [
    As the 2009 conference wound up, Rudd began to shift. In several conversations with Wong and Albanese, he undertook to pave the way for a policy shift to civil unions after the 2010 election.

    In the lead-up to the 2010 election he would propose a conscience vote for Labor MPs on civil unions.

    Rudd would not campaign for civil unions. He would just ignite the issue and let it run. He would state his personal view but add that others had a right to air their own views.

    If necessary, he would throw the issue to a plebiscite but this was only a fallback position.

    When Rudd’s leadership hit the fence, so did this undertaking. However, plans by the Left to push on continued apace. Gay marriage will be the ambit claim at the next conference in December 2011. The goal will be a conscience vote on civil unions.
    ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/labor-on-a-steady-path-to-samesex-weddings-20101121-182hh.html

  22. [Separately, John Herlihy, head of Google’s 2000-strong European headquarters in Dublin, told The Belfast Telegraph that ”anything that impinges on Ireland’s competitiveness is going to be a big thing for Google”.]

    Google’s response to comments that Ireland may increase its corporate tax rate above 12.5%. It would seem Google’s professed altruistic motives do not extend beyond the walls of Google as previously suggested. The phrase “do no evil” should be strictly interpreted as do no evil to Google itself as they are not interested in playing a part in saving the Irish economy.

  23. [structural separation of Telstra,

    Excellent news …

    Seeing progressive forces working together gives me a real happy feeling.]

    i think Scott Ludlam may be their next leader seems to have a good brain and young and thinks about all issues,

  26. So Dovif you agree the Libs would just flog off the NBN like a pound of steak? No thought behind it? No motive but tax cuts for the rich?

    I would not be against govt ownership of the NBN PROVIDED it could be done so the Libs couldn’t undo it. Putting the NBN Co shares in the Future Fund say. But a bit more thinking than in your usual Green policy manifesto please!

  31. [Time for Julia to grab the ball, so to speak, and run with it. It’s a winner.

    That may be so – but like London to a brick – as soon as Julia annunces such a move – the Church, the Libs and their various hangers on will mount the mother of all scare campaigns and they will ensure that it will fail.

    It’s a brave Govt who prevail over that.]

    is this why the poll was only asking 21/39 year olds, think about that one is that the the reason, or was the mortgatge holders or for both questions

  32. ABC radio last night, had a replay of a forum with Malcolm Fraser. Missed most of it. I don’t know where and when it took place, but Fraser made some very pertinent observations. I am going to see if I can find it online and post it. It is very worthwhile.

  33. Another way would be to sell shares in NBN Co to union-run industry super funds perhaps.

    But a law one Parliament passes another can set aside.

  34. [Is there a European solution other than to set up parallel currencies? Surely only a devaluation can help the PIGS and Ireland.]

    Blue_Green – agree flexible Individual currencies and separate monetary policies would be the best solution as Ireland and others could export/trade their way out of trouble. In the current circumstance that is the very last resort as it would entail exiting the Euro. If the Euro collapsed that would be devasting for the global economy. Going forward there will have to be greater scrutiny of individual economies/budgets to ensure stability of the exchange rate.

  36. [129 Paul_J
    Posted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 9:16 am | Permalink
    The Libs allready said they would sell off the NBN in Tasmania if they had won in August.]

    if that happened malcom could really complain about high prices may be.
    we pay 49dollars month now and thats with 12 capacity sorry cannot think of the word
    when we first took it out it was around the 29 dollars with a discount on our phone rent, then with out a phone call a letter up it went.
    keeping this in gov, hands is a must.

  37. [So Dovif you agree the Libs would just flog off the NBN like a pound of steak? No thought behind it? No motive but tax cuts for the rich?]

    Nice hyperbole. ‘Flog off, pound of steak, for the rich.’ Excellent and thoughtful attack on the right.

    [But a bit more thinking than in your usual Green policy manifesto please!]

    Nice hyperbole again. ‘bit more thinking (ie unthinking) and policy manifesto (ie commies). This time an excellent and thoughtful attack on the left.

    Well done. I guess that leaves only Labor as the sane and moderate party. I guess I will have to deduce to vote for them. I am sold.

  38. I like Ross Gittins. He speaks sense on many economic subjects when others just repeat garbage coming from the Liberal party (or the ALP for that matter).

    However I do have to take issue with some of the things in his blog.

    [The first is the mentality that says we’ve got a lot of messy and inadequate telecom arrangements at present, so let’s scrap ’em all and start afresh. Copper wire to the home – make Telstra turn it off. Telstra and Optus’s existing rival optical fibre-coaxial cables to many capital-city homes – close ’em down.]

    I was under the impression that Telstra will keep its HFC network, because people still watch cable. I am not sure what Optus has planned with its cable network. But the main point of the NBN is to replace copper as the base network for Australia.

    [True, it’s false economy to build something today without allowing for reasonable growth in your use of the item. But there comes a point where allowing for more growth than you’re likely to see in ages becomes a waste of money.]

    I think this is were many people outside (and even in) IT have issues with. Wasn’t it Bill Gates that said 640k (of memory) ought to be enough for everyone. And look where we are now. Trying to forecast the future is really difficult. I would rather build a robust network now than having to upgrade the network again because some company produced a killer product that chews up bandwidth like nothing.

    [The final worry is the way that – notwithstanding the break-up of Telstra – the plan involves deliberately reducing competition from other networks in the telecommunications market. Why’s that a good idea?]

    Huh? I assume he is concerned about there being no competition from other fixed line networks. Because there is absolutely nothing stopping companies from building mobile networks. Indeed Telstra will build more and more mobile infrastructure to cope with higher demands (thats why it needs the $11billion from the government).

    If a company can roll out its own network using some future technology (as yet unknown to science) at a lower cost than the NBN and capable of providing a better service, then so be it. But there needs to be a base network available to all Australians that provides a decent service. The NBN is more like a utility and only governments can (or rather should) build that.

  39. [ don’t know much about Scott Ludlam. Is he like McKim?]

    its only an observation i have made , he does come across as not being radical.
    McKim had his days but when you actully get behind the wheel of gov and see how it works like McKim has, its amazing how this changes attitudes, may be the cost of the pie in the sky stuff like draining lake Peder, who knows.

    b/g by the way something has been on my mind, i was rude to you some week ago i would like to apologize,.

  40. [Blue_Green – agree flexible Individual currencies and separate monetary policies would be the best solution as Ireland and others could export/trade their way out of trouble. In the current circumstance that is the very last resort as it would entail exiting the Euro. If the Euro collapsed that would be devasting for the global economy. Going forward there will have to be greater scrutiny of individual economies/budgets to ensure stability of the exchange rate.]

    But surely self interest at a national level out-trumps multi-lateral institutions everytime, especially when the need is so dire. Ireland etc will be punished for a decade or more if they can’t devalue thei currency. They have no more levers to encourage investment and improve their competitiveness. Their company tax rates are already low.

  41. PaulJ

    It was not Q&A. I am trying to find it online, because it was mentioned at end of segment that it would be available on podcast.

  42. [b/g by the way something has been on my mind, i was rude to you some week ago i would like to apologize,.]

    My Say, apology accepted, although I can’t think what for. You always seem so earnest and polite.

    I take little offence from rudeness here. There will neve be agreement on every issue here and sometimes that leaves people so exasperated. I don’t take it personally.

  43. [Why does a unionist have control over social policies? Was he speeking in his role as unionist or as party official? Very confusing.]

    The SDA isn’t just any union. It is the largest union in Australia, b_g. It has extremely stable, Catholic Right, leadership , because of the system used to elect peak officials, through state branches, and a high turnover of young membership that means that it is extremely difficult to uproot the incumbents.

    Never under-estimate the power of the Catholic Right within the Labor party.

    There are long and deep historical connections between Catholicism generally and the labor movement, going back to the days of Cardinal Moran in NSW in the 1880’s and 90’s, and then, of course, people like Mannix in Victoria. It is probably fair to say that without the support of powerful Catholics the the Labor movement would have had a far harder road to hoe in its earlier years, to the huge detriment of Australian workers.

    There have always been tensions though, and the increasing “liberalism” of many in Labor on social issues since WW2 has played a major part in internal divisions within the party. You could well argue that labor’s Catholic right is in a large measure responsible for the growth of The Greens. By making it harder for the party to adapt to changing community attitudes on matters like abortion, ivf, stem cell research and gay marriage the party has found it harder than it would have otherwise been to keep “social progressives” on board. The Greens simply filled the vacuum for many such people. Probably one of the reasons why so many of the most vitriolic attacks on The Greens come people like De Bruyn. By driving people away from labor the De Bruyns etc are in a large part responsible for the Greens electoral success

    There is, of course, a substantial body of more progressive catholics , and lapsed catholics, with strong associations with labor, though. People like Albanese, Arbib (no doubt the vigor of the reaction against his statements about gay marriage by some in the party have been occurring because he is both Catholic and of the Right – and therefore seen as a “traitor’) etc. It may well be that people like Arbib actually have a greater chance of “modernising” the party over time than those from the left, if they survive.

  44. [political animal
    Posted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 9:18 am | Permalink

    Another way would be to sell shares in NBN Co to union-run industry super funds perhaps.

    But a law one Parliament passes another can set aside.]

    I am interested to think why you would preferentially choose an industry super fund. What if I wanted to buy a stake? Would I be precluded?

  45. [t pays to remember that there are two other commercial parties in this project, not just the government.]

    Indeed, but two weeks rather than 7 years would seem to be likely to simply sell the other parties down the drain if there really were problems there, SK.

  46. Rod Hagen

    Thanks for that detailed analysis. But what I don;t understand is how or why a union entrenches its power for social concerns, surely its interest is worker concerns.

    And is Joe De Bruyn talking representing his union when he makes those statements or as an ALP official. What hat is he wearing?

    I can’t beleive a union would have a policy position on gay marriage.

    I think I used to be a member of the SDA once. I had to, to work at Hungry Jacks. 😆 Or maybe it was another union. I can’t remember.

    The only thing I remember is that I complained when those working on Easter Saturday got holiday pay, but those working on Easter Sunday didn’t, and the union didnt care. 🙁 It made no sense.

  47. ON the QR National privitisation, I notice that the largest named shareholder, after the Queensland Government, is The Children’s Investment Fund, at 6.1% or 150m shares, a particularly aggressive global hedge fund…Andrew Fraser’s job has just got a lot more interesting!

  48. [I don’t have the foggiest notion why Gillard is digging in like a Victorian era prude of same-sex marriage.]

    Possibly because her strongest loyalists in the caucus are from the Right & these persons hold strong anti same sex marriage views.

  49. [But surely self interest at a national level out-trumps multi-lateral institutions everytime, especially when the need is so dire. Ireland etc will be punished for a decade or more if they can’t devalue thei currency.]

    Sure that may be the case and they are probably mounting those arguments to extract a bailout with no strings attached from the Euro stability fund. If they exit the Euro then the Euro zone has no incentive to bail them out and they are left with an IMF bailout with punitive conditions attached. They will require IMF help for sometime as they will not be able to borrow on the markets.

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