Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports a federal Nielsen poll to be published in tomorrow’s Fairfax broadsheets will show the Coalition, unchanged on last month. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes further relates the primary votes are Labor 35 per cent (up one point), Coalition 43 per cent (steady) and Greens 13 per cent (down one), and the poll also shows support for gay marriage at 57 per cent and opposition at 37 per cent.

UPDATE 2: The poll finds little change in the leaders’ personal ratings. Julia Gillard is stable on both approval (54 per cent) and disapproval (39 per cent), while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 47 per cent and down two on disapproval to 48 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53 per cent (steady) to 40 per cent (up a point). The Coalition leads as best party to handle interest rates (47 per cent to 33 per cent) and create greater competition between the banks (46 per cent to 32 per cent). Fifty-five per cent now believe the government should serve a full term, against 42 per cent who would like a new election as soon as possible.

UPDATE 3: Essential Research also has the Coalition leading 51-49, for the third week running. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is at 43 per cent, down two on a month ago, and her disapproval up one to 38 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up a point on approval to 40 per cent and down five on disapproval to 40 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 49-33 to 45-34. There are also questions on viewing of sport on free-to-air and pay television, presumably apropos of the anti-siphoning issue – although opinions on this are not engaged directly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

857 comments on “Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 4 of 18
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  1. [RTR FM, please.]

    Bird of paradox, i am searching for a radio station that plays music that is in between,
    to much opera and classical ( even thought i still play my classical pieces on the piano) can be depressing, any ideas any one.Sometimes i think my days are now to quite for someone who only ever had the local abc on then life matters then the world today its all changed, i at this stage cannot go back to listening to the abc may be one day when they get their soul back i will but i doubt that will ever happen.

    ROXANNA Julia is now pm she has to be see to be acting a talking like one, she reminds me of MR. Thatcher ( not in policies of course) as young woman i thought mrs Thatcher to be very lady like , in parliment i remember quite a few rantings of hers and some of sayings i certainly did not approve of it her demeanor, lady like on top of game know her stuff and uses a very will-owing look to bring her opponents in to line, and great one liners.

    The new way of doing question time has of course changed a few of thing things she could of said before, which i dont like, i prefer the old qt. time.

    may be you are a fulltime worker and do not see qt i suggest you have it taped, there you will se the Julia you voted for except for the new restrictions the ind. wanted.
    i still think there are days when harry should just tell the whole opp. to leave qt

  3. [And is Joe De Bruyn talking representing his union when he makes those statements or as an ALP official. What hat is he wearing]

    i thinnk he may be wearing a very old fashioned hat, like the one my mum wore when she went to work at woolies in 1946/47

  6. I notice the US are now sending M1 Abrams tanks to Afghanistan.

    [
    The US is sending battle tanks to Afghanistan for the first time in the nine-year war against the Taliban, the Washington Post reported today.

    Citing unnamed officers and defence officials, the paper said General David Petraeus, the commander of US and Nato forces in Afghanistan, approved the move last month.

    “The deployment of a company of M1 Abrams tanks, which will be fielded by the marines in the country’s south-west, will allow ground forces to target insurgents from a greater distance – and with more of a lethal punch – than is possible from any other US military vehicle,” the Post said.
    ]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/nov/19/us-tanks-afghanistan-i-abrams

  11. [And is Joe De Bruyn talking representing his union when he makes those statements or as an ALP official.]

    He’s talking as a powerful man: a member of the ALP federal executive and Vice President of the ACTU with strong personal opinions that represent those of others in the leadership of the union that provides him with his power-base.

  13. b_g

    Did the Libs flog off Telstra like a pound of steak? Did they pay the proceeds as tax cuts to the rich?

    I am trying to show that just passing a Bill guarantees nothing. And todays Libs have learned nothing from two election defeats and they still pine for WorkChoices.

    I would like to see the NBN Co stay in govt hands. I just realise it is harder than just passing some Bill!

  15. [i dont know much about mR. Rees in NSW i never understood why he lost his position as premier,]

    OK, the summary goes:
    1. Iemma elected on the back of the right faction.
    2. Iemma takes on all factions to privatise electricity to free up money to fund infrastrucutre expenditure and save government.
    3. Unions retaliate and Iemma is knifed.
    4. Focus group polling on all potential right faction candidates is terrible. The only other ALP that scores well in focus groups is Rees. But he is from the Left. So he is made to resign from the Left and become unaligned. The ‘right’ back him and he becomes Premier.
    5. Series of scandals plague govt. A minority Rees initiated (including failed Metro). Majority of scandals are personality and ethical failings of senior Ministers. Rees bashes heads together and sacks people (including from the right). Polls remain dismal, but now the right aren’t happy.
    6. Kenneally’s profile increases (with World Youth Day) and she becomes standout performer from the right. The right continue to undermine Rees with leaking and bad mouthing.
    7. Right dumps Rees and installes Kenneally. Polls tip slightly upwards, then enter freefall.

    Rees is a good bloke. He works hard and is straightforward. He was able to get the NSW govt back to basics. They have actually been governing better because of him. But he was promoted without a power base and was just a first term MP. Far too fast to become Premier. He should not be tipped from his seat by an internal stoush. That would be shameful. It appears to be revenge from Joe Tripodi and some Left Factional heads. Very sad.

  16. [political animal
    Posted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 9:53 am | Permalink

    b_g

    Did the Libs flog off Telstra like a pound of steak? Did they pay the proceeds as tax cuts to the rich?]

    I am absolutely glad they did. Thanks to Meg Lees an enormous amount of money was directed to the environment that wouldn’t otherwise be.

  17. [He’s talking as a powerful man: a member of the ALP federal executive and Vice President of the ACTU with strong personal opinions that represent those of others in the leadership of the union that provides him with his power-base.]

    I don’t mind people wearing several hats. But one should be able to separate roles clearly and this should be transparent. It is bad governance, pure and simple, if that is not the case.

  19. On the Rees pre-selection. The person running against him seems credible, but I wonder how he will sleep at night whilst he knows he is part of the continuation of the stain of Joe Tripodi on the ALP.

  20. blue_green

    I have warned you about generalising about Labor from NSW before!

    I repeat: most preselections in Victoria (the only state I can speak for) are determined purely by the local vote.

    In over 90% of cases, whoever is preselected locally is automatically the candidate.

    In a handful of cases – usually, only two or three – one of the failed preselection candidates challenges and it then goes to the next stage (which is worth 50%, so a win there for the challenger does not automatically over turn the local vote).

    In exceedingly rare cases (I’m struggling to think of any, the immediate examples that leap to mind are NSWelsh, though I’m sure there are some) a candidate is ‘parachuted’ in (aha! Yes, Mar’n Ferguson) over the wishes of the local branches.

    Strangely enough, the time when this process was at its least democratic and most factionalised was when the independents had the balance of power!

  21. Labor has a new grant round.

    http://www.alp.org.au/federal-government/news/$23m-in-local-grants-available-for-healthy-communi/

    Now time for my policy critique hat.

    It is for healthy communities. But it appears to be strangely skewed in a away tht makes no sense to me.

    Firstly it is targetted to adults out of work. So I guess that means it is tied to keeping the unemployed excercising whilst they are looking for work. This does not seem to be a high priority in the preventative health stakes. Surely it is better to help the unemployed find work and the to help the newly retired stay active.

    Secondly, they funds are only available to local councils. So that means sporting associations, health prevention charities, like diabetes australia can’t apply for the funds to run programs. That seems bizzare to me. Surely you want the experts in delivering this stuff to deliver it. And think of all the smaller rural councils who have no experience in this stuff (the roads, rates and rubbish councils), there is no way they could be competitive for these funds. That means those residents lose out.

    My point is that Labor needs to think through its policies better, even the small ones. Or perhaps, especially the small ones. To not design these programs with an eye for implementation is to throw money down the drain and to lose the faith of those interested in the issue you are trying to address.

  22. [I don’t mind people wearing several hats. But one should be able to separate roles clearly and this should be transparent.]

    It is always tricky to do that when one position actually gives rise to the occupancy of another, b_g. Within the Labor Party itself I don’t think it leads to any confusion, though when positions are expressed to the broader public it is undoubtedly good practice for journos to enquire and report about what hat is being worn if the information isn’t actually volunteered.

    Personally I reckon it would be a very good thing for the Labor party if someone could do to the SDA the same thing that Lindsay Tanner had the strength to achieve with the Federated Clerks in Victoria in the 1980’s!

  23. My Say,

    [i am searching for a radio station that plays music that is in between,
    to much opera and classical ]

    Assuming you’ve got a relatively late-model computer complete with speakers there’s no reason to be limited to conventional (terrestrial) radio any more. There’s literally a world of listening options available online! It’s an excellent way to wean oneself off the dreadful ABC with their defiant political messaging.

    Taking into consideration what I’ve gathered about your demographic I would suggest these for a taste of what’s out there. They should work fine on the PC:

    Hometown Radio57 Adult Standards
    http://www.hometownradio.us/Radio57.m3u

    BBC, Wales – String Of Pearls (opens in the BBC software player)
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/console/b00w4873/A_String_of_Pearls_21_11_2010

    EZ Does It Net Radio (this one is not always online)
    http://community.loudcity.com/stations/ez-does-it/files/show/32bit.pls

  24. Good morning blue-green.

    You were asking about the opposition to same sex marriage. Miranda Devine had a column yesterday in which she bemoans the diluting of the value of marriage if it were extended to same sex couples, and wonders what same sex couples would bring to marriage other than for self-fulfilment.

    It’s rubbish of course. If you want to strenghten the institution and keep it relevent, you’d be wanting as many couples marrying, not fewer. It’s people like Devine and Ruddock, who mused over excluding infertile couples (and seniors by extension) from marriage that are weakening and diluting the institution.

  26. nfessions
    Posted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 10:23 am | Permalink
    [Good morning blue-green.

    You were asking about the opposition to same sex marriage. Miranda Devine had a column yesterday in which she bemoans the diluting of the value of marriage if it were extended to same sex couples, and wonders what same sex couples would bring to marriage other than for self-fulfilment.

    It’s rubbish of course. If you want to strenghten the institution and keep it relevent, you’d be wanting as many couples marrying, not fewer. It’s people like Devine and Ruddock, who mused over excluding infertile couples (and seniors by extension) from marriage that are weakening and diluting the institution.]

    So marriage is for children only then (goes the argument). To take that logic further than, surely it should be illegal for a married couple with children to get divorced.

    Oh yes, stop the oldies marrying. 😆 If that keeps them from spending the inheritance then I am all for that!

  27. [It’s people like Devine and Ruddock, who mused over excluding infertile couples]

    Mmm, wouldn’t that cause certain problems for those of particular religious persuasions who still regard marriage as a necessary precursor to intercourse? You can’t get married unless you prove you are fertile, and you can’t have sex until married? Certainly have an impact on population growth! Perhaps Ruddock is a closet Mathusian! 😉

  28. [So marriage is for children only then (goes the argument).]

    This is the new argument from our conservative brethren: marriage is about the procreation of children. This overlooks the value marriage had traditionally as a form of social welfare, inculcating people from times of financial stress – couples can cope better with reduced household income than a single person.

    Conservatives should own the issue of same sex marriage, because it is conservatives who say they want to preserve and strengthen the institution. By excluding people they are causing the institution to be viewed as anachronistic and irrelevent. I don’t understand this.

  29. BH,

    Many thanks.

    I can’t quite read that article. It seems to screw up on my screen. Any clues as to how i can read it.

    What I can make out matches my views (i have expressed here over the last week or so) pretty neatly.

    Its the second piece I have found in the last week that says that the ALP are failing on the rhetoric. Its interesting that this is coming to the fore now.

  34. And Laocoon beats the media to the scoop this morning!

    The Oz just now

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/industry-sectors/childrens-investment-fund-first-state-investments-key-qr-national-holders/story-e6frg97o-1225958333385?from=public_rss

    Laocoon earlier

    [Laocoon
    Posted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 9:34 am | Permalink
    ON the QR National privitisation, I notice that the largest named shareholder, after the Queensland Government, is The Children’s Investment Fund, at 6.1% or 150m shares, a particularly aggressive global hedge fund…Andrew Fraser’s job has just got a lot more interesting!]

  38. Victoria @ 141

    Any luck tracking down that program from last night? I too caught the end of it and heard Malcolm Fraser and Robert Manne.

    I had a look at the program schedule on the ABC website and think it must have been ‘Big Ideas’. Nothing else fits on Radio National.

  40. The big political game breaker this week is not the NBN. Its the World Cup. If Australia wins the World Cup, we will ride an incredible wave of optimism.

    If we lose it, it will be less rosy.

  41. My Say @ 153

    And is Joe De Bruyn talking representing his union when he makes those statements or as an ALP official. What hat is he wearing

    i thinnk he may be wearing a very old fashioned hat, like the one my mum wore when she went to work at woolies in 1946/47

    lol good line there My Say.

  44. [Farmers will be rewarded for carbon credits they create through various methods such as reforestation and reducing their fertiliser use, under proposals released by the Federal Government today.

    The move by the Government enables farmers to make money by creating carbon credits which they can sell to those wanting to offset their emissions.]

    I’m trying to find this on the relevent department website. Can’t see it at Climate Change dept, nor the Agriculture dept.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/11/22/3072574.htm

  46. Interesting that the MSM have picked up on the rhetoric thing after so much discussion here of late. Obviously it isn’t just the tragics who have noticed.

  47. Confessions

    I don’t know where it is listed. But if they want to get their voluntary credits system sorted out they need to hire more than one person to do it! It looks like there will be a committee but my inside info is that there is only one person doing a whole raft of voluntary forestry abatement policy work (let alone the mess of soil carbon stuff).

    And axing both Land and Water Australian and not renewing the life of the CRC for greehouse accounting were terrible decisions for which we continue to pay the consequences.

    As was scrapping the existing system for voluntary offsets (Carbon Friendly) because it was thought that all forestry-related carbon would be captured under a CPRS. And thus it left everying selling voluntary carbon without a scheme to be accredited under!

    It has been a complete schemozzle. And it seem like it is continuing. It has blown millions of dollars of investment by public good organisations seeking to address climate change through these means. Let alone all of the passionat staff (my friends) who have bult up there skills and had to leave the industry because of the comprehensive policy stuff ups leaving them without out work.

  49. Clarification

    The CRC for Greenhouse Accounting was started in 99 and ended in 06. I cannot link that in with the current govt. But nonetheless. We are still paying for its demise.

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