Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports a federal Nielsen poll to be published in tomorrow’s Fairfax broadsheets will show the Coalition, unchanged on last month. More to follow.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes further relates the primary votes are Labor 35 per cent (up one point), Coalition 43 per cent (steady) and Greens 13 per cent (down one), and the poll also shows support for gay marriage at 57 per cent and opposition at 37 per cent.

UPDATE 2: The poll finds little change in the leaders’ personal ratings. Julia Gillard is stable on both approval (54 per cent) and disapproval (39 per cent), while Tony Abbott is up two on approval to 47 per cent and down two on disapproval to 48 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is 53 per cent (steady) to 40 per cent (up a point). The Coalition leads as best party to handle interest rates (47 per cent to 33 per cent) and create greater competition between the banks (46 per cent to 32 per cent). Fifty-five per cent now believe the government should serve a full term, against 42 per cent who would like a new election as soon as possible.

UPDATE 3: Essential Research also has the Coalition leading 51-49, for the third week running. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is at 43 per cent, down two on a month ago, and her disapproval up one to 38 per cent, while Tony Abbott is up a point on approval to 40 per cent and down five on disapproval to 40 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 49-33 to 45-34. There are also questions on viewing of sport on free-to-air and pay television, presumably apropos of the anti-siphoning issue – although opinions on this are not engaged directly.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

857 comments on “Nielsen: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 6 of 18
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  1. [And the moment she does the headline will involve something to do with her becoming shrill, over the top or hysterical. She does not have a compliant MSM. Where they can turn a positive into a negative they will.]

    The media are a pathway to the people. If a few editorials call her shrill, so what? Thats a few thousand people who have made up their mind about politics anyway.

    I would be doing a strategy of better rhetoric (especially figures of speech) to get nightly news coverage. A better narrative to get the editors at least to undertand how everything fits together. That way, at least when they criticise the govt, they will outline the narrative and reader gets to read what the govt stands for. And thirdly, I would take a back door route to build up the ethos and pathos of the govt through extended inteviews even late night stuff, soft tv (gardening australia, compass etc) to highlight the personal passions and experience of the govt members.

  4. Victoria
    [It was not Q&A. I am trying to find it online, because it was mentioned at end of segment that it would be available on podcast.]
    Have not caught up with all posts but I wonder if Frasers interview was the one on Webinar with Bernard Keane.
    I was accepted to participate online but do not have Voip so had to cancel.

  5. [BK
    Posted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 12:23 pm | Permalink

    Come in from doing some work around the place. Turn A-pac on and what do I get?
    The puff adder!]

    I think you suffer from Stockholm Syndrome. You are one twisted individual.

  8. A bloke, who should know, comments about the NBN

    http://twitter.com/phbarratt

    Gary – Like you I love listening to JG explaining her policies at pressers, etc. but, as you say, not much of it gets reported. The little darlings needs excitement before they can bring themselves to write anything positive about her.

    I say JG should hit them between the eyes with some great lines – even if she’s called shrill the message will be more memorable than what she is getting now.

    Freudenberg used to write great lines for GW. Watson did the same for PJK. Where are the modern day writers? How about Mike Carlton writing a few good lines – an occasional touch of humour wouldn’t go astray.

  10. Dee

    The interview I am referring to is here

    Malcolm Fraser with Professor Manne. It gets very interesting at the 30 minute mark. They talk about refugees, multicularism, racism, the politics of fear. Fraser and Manne answer questions from the audience. It is highly recommended listening.

  11. [billy
    Posted Monday, November 22, 2010 at 12:26 pm | Permalink

    Gusface, 242 , why can’t he be both ? He tries very hard in both areas.]

    Are you new here Billy? I don’t think we have conversed before.

  13. Victoria
    I’m peddling as fast as I can to catch up with the comments. It obviously isn’t the ‘Taking Back Our Politics’ forum.
    Fraser has been doing a lot of forums & interviews of late. One point he is consistent on is that the Coalition are not fit to govern.

  14. blue_green @ 252

    I don’t see how a strategy of complaining about media coverage actually helps the ALP. It just creates a vicious circle of self-pity.

    Bingo!

    It also creates an excuse for poor performance and not trying harder.

  16. victoria,

    Did my eyes read right? Or was it just wishful thinking?

    Did you say that Malcolm Fraser said the Coalition are not fit to govern?

  19. Things move so fast that it’s nice to be reminded of the Oppn’s past records and something for Conroy to bang their heads about –

    [This week Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull and Barnaby Joyce will be stamping their feet and puffing out their chests demanding immediate release of a cost-benefit analysis of demanding immediate release of a cost-benefit analysis of the NBN network. Such analyses have their place.

    However, where were they when the first tranche of Telstra was put up for sale in 1997? Were they stomping the country demanding a cost-benefit analysis? Not on your Nellie. Nor were many of the commentators and business organisations now demanding one for the NBN.

    Yet that first third of Telstra was sold by the Howard government for several billion dollars under its market value, which transferred wealth from public to private hands. Similarly with T2 but not so much with T3.

    Tony was of course a minister in the government. But I didn’t notice Tony (Truthful one day, Imperfect the next) Abbott out there leading a public chorus of “Waddya want? Cost Benefit analysis! When do ya want it? Now!” against his mate John. To be fair, Malcolm and Barnaby weren’t in government but what is their opinion now of those privatisations?

    Because such a cheap sale of Telstra was typical of privatisation in Australia as well as overseas. According to one analyst in 1999, assets sold by the Australian state and federal governments for $30billion were worth $75billion if their market capitalisation was to be believed. That’s a difference of $45billion, which is more than the total cost of the NBN and of the government share of the network of $26billion. By early this decade there was over $100billion worth of privatisation by federal and state governments and cost-benefit analyses did not figure in their debates.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/41360.html

  20. SK –

    Did you say that Malcolm Fraser said the Coalition are not fit to govern?

    He said that during the course of this years election

  21. SK
    [One point he is consistent on is that the Coalition are not fit to govern.]
    I have heard Fraser say this on several occassions.
    In one of his interviews after discussing the political scene, Fran Kelly asked Fraser if he thought the Coalition were fit to govern. Of course this question was asked in context of the whole conversation, to which he replied ‘No’.

  23. Read and bookmark the Howard waste – makes you mad that he was able to get away with it for so long but now his former henchman (Abbott) plays a different game – something about the Govt. should not be in the game of picking winner!

    [Howard did not wait for research and studies such as cost-benefit analyses to confirm the policies, not only of privatisation but lots of other policies such as the Strategic Coordination Investment Program (SCIP).

    Now this was a little-known program of Howard picking industry winners, which is at variance with his more well-known stance of economic liberalism and the government keeping its nose out……

    Have you noticed Australia’s thriving space program? Because there was $100million to develop a space launch facility on Christmas Island. Maybe to launch boat people into orbit.]

  25. [Yes Gus. bg just running off his mouth yet again.]

    Damn me to Hades. How dare I use an analytical framework grounded in theory to discuss the political events of the present. I should instead just call everyone here ‘trolls’. That would me much more interesting, rewarding and fruitful.

    I would feel like a better person and the world would be a better place because of it.

    From now on, its name calling and that’s it. Time to find my ‘how to bully toddler’s” book from primary school. 😆

  27. I have been a proud member of three unions during my working life….one in the UK and two in Australia. I have never known any of those Unions to form a view on the social issue(s) under debate in recent times….ie: SSMarriage/IVF/Stem cell research/ToP/etc….

    If they had done so, I would have been very surprised, because I have always understood the function of any Union is to be primarily concerned with my terms and conditions of employment. I accept that they also involve themselves with National and International matters of justice for all workers…..and I embrace that role wholeheartedly.

    If they had done so, I would have expected them to canvass the views of members and inform us all that they intended to represent those views at the State/National level……no probs, let the majority view prevail…..that’s the democratic way….

    BUT…..if I had not been asked my view on this/these matters, and my elected and well paid (by the members) leader had decided to represent his/her RELIGIOUS views as if they represented the views of the majority of the members, without declaring those views and conducting an informed debate/vote……I’d be mighty p*ssed off!!

    Further, I would go as far as to say that said Union leader had behaved in a manner which could be viewed as an attempt to corrupt the democratic process….for personal religious motives…..and possibly worse motives than that…….

  28. [Did you say that Malcolm Fraser said the Coalition are not fit to govern?

    He said that during the course of this years election]

    Indeed he did.

    Sydney Morning Herald, 06 August 2010:

    [Fraser says Coalition not ready to govern

    The former Liberal prime minister, Malcolm Fraser, has joined the surge of former leaders on the campaign trail – saying bluntly the Coalition is not ready for government.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-election/fraser-says-coalition-not-ready-to-govern-20100806-11l9g.html

  30. I don’t get the intricacies of this. Can anone explain? Or is our catholic church leader trying to out-conservative the pope?

    [Tzarimas Cardinal George Pell has released a statement saying the Pope’s recent comments on condom use will not mean a change to church teachings. ]

  31. bg –

    Time to find my ‘how to bully toddler’s” book from primary school. 😆

    Its in the same place you lot always keep it. Just to make sure its
    handy ready to use.

  33. [The media are a pathway to the people. If a few editorials call her shrill, so what?]
    We’re not just talking editorials when it comes to negative ALP comment though are we?

  34. cuppa, victoria, dee and dave,

    Thanks for the info and the link. I wouldn’t have thought I would hear that from Fraser in a million years!

  35. It’s funny about the debate on the NBN, a couple of people on whirlpool forums still not believing that NBN business plan and the Greens deal (sighting rising pricing etc).

  36. bemused@282

    blue_green @ 280

    Boy George is just out to establish his uber-Catholic credentials again.

    *Boy George* is, I think the youngish Bishop who is tipped to take over
    from Pell when he heads off to something or another is Rome.

    Is his name Fraser ?? Anyway his nick is *Boy George*

  37. b_g @ 184

    Just goes to show I can retype part of an ASX release more quickly than The Australian 😉

    I see QRN is at $1.67 (versus institutional issue price of $1.55, retail price $1.45)

  39. [We’re not just talking editorials when it comes to negative ALP comment though are we?]

    Gary,

    The Oz has been editorialising news for over two years. Yes. So what should they do? Give up because one of the papers with an entirely cosnervative readership doesn’t like them.

    There are two things something needs to be to make the news. 1) It has to be new. 2) It has to be interesting. To get the first one should be doable. They are a government of a multi-billion dollar budget. They should be doing something new every day. If it fits into a narrative then all the better. To get something interesting, they need good words or good images. Shouldn’t be so hard either.

    Go and read the ALP media releases, neither a shred of interest or passion in any of them.

  40. SK @ 285

    Fraser has been like that for a long time now, at least a decade.

    I am not sure what happened to him but I suspect one of his daughters ‘educated’ him through her experience as an aid worker.

    Fraser is now often well to the left of the ALP on many issues.

    It is great to see how over recent years he seems to have become firm friends with Gough Whitlam and they have worked in common cause and appeared together on a number of occasions. I suspect one topic is off-limits though!

  43. SK,

    [I wouldn’t have thought I would hear that from Fraser in a million years!]

    I guess since he quit the party in disgust as its moving to the uber-reicht right, he’s free to speak the truth where his former colleagues would be incapable.

  44. The one ALP Minister that undertands rhetoric is Peter Garrett. The Oils lyrics are a perfect example of how words can create mental images.

    It is so unfortunate that he hid his passion to take on the remote aire of a dispassionate and balanced Minister. It find it unfortunate on a personal level for Garret, but also for the environment movement becuase it means that the government did not talk with passion about the environment for their entire last term.

  45. [I don’t see how a strategy of complaining about media coverage actually helps the ALP. It just creates a vicious circle of self-pity.]
    It’s not a strategy, it’s a realisation of what actually exists. To pretend otherwise is silly. Also, to pretend this ingrained bias can be manipulated with some snazzy words written by some gung ho speechwriters is living in fantasyland.

  46. Gary @ 295

    I don’t see how a strategy of complaining about media coverage actually helps the ALP. It just creates a vicious circle of self-pity.

    It’s not a strategy, it’s a realisation of what actually exists. To pretend otherwise is silly. Also, to pretend this ingrained bias can be manipulated with some snazzy words written by some gung ho speechwriters is living in fantasyland.

    This is exactly what I meant in my post @ 264

    It also creates an excuse for poor performance and not trying harder.

    You are right about a hostile media. Do we just bemoan this reality or do our best to make it harder for them to ignore or block the message?

  47. Take the most recent media release from Garrett as an example of the asinine media managment

    [Event celebrates Australia’s young migrants
    Peter Garrett posted Saturday, 20 November 2010

    The Minister for Youth, Peter Garrett, today officially opened the Young Migrant Support and Celebration Day at the University of South Australia.

    The event, part of the Prime Minister’s Australian Youth Forum Challenge, aims to empower young people to be active change makers in their communities.

    “Initiatives like the Prime Minister’s Australian Youth Forum Challenge help young people’s innovative ideas make a significant positive impact on Australian society,” Mr Garrett said.

    “The Young Migrant Support and Celebration Day encourages the engagement of international students and skilled migrants in our society, it recognises their contribution to family and community which is representative of the skill and drive they have to make our country a better place.”

    “This day offers useful information and networks to attendees and celebrates their contribution to the Australian community.”

    The event includes a fair with presentations and stalls from government, community and private organisations covering information on community services, education, laws and employment opportunities.

    Funding of $15,000 for the initiative was provided by the Australian Government’s Australian Youth Forum (AYF).

    More information on the Young Migrant Support and Celebration Day is available on the Uniting New Immigrants in Australia website: http://www.unia.com.au.

    For further information on the Prime Minister’s Australian Youth Forum, visit http://www.youth.gov.au/ayf.

    ]

    If you were a journo, would you want to write an article on this. It reads like the most plain vanilla of all their releases. I reckon the media have given up writing these up because they are boring.

    Where is the story? Where is the talent? The interesting life story of someone who came here and made it big and how grateful she is for migrating etc. Where are the images? The decent soundbites? Its a miserable release and will get no coverage whatsoever for what should have been a nice good-news story.

    You could sack every media officer and it would make no difference if that is the drivel they put out.

  49. [Go and read the ALP media releases, neither a shred of interest or passion in any of them.]
    So now you want a media release to exude passion? You’re having me on.

  50. Sloppy claims “the big banks would happily get rid of exit fees but the smaller players need them to remain to stay competitive”.

    Someone buy that guy an “Economics 101” textbook before his next presser – please!

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