Morgan: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria

A Morgan phone poll has provided further evidence of a late shift to the Coalition to add to that from Galaxy, recording a 51-49 lead to the Coalition which as far as I can tell is the first time they have led in a poll since early 2005. Morgan sceptics should note that there is no reason to believe their phone polls are any less reliable than anyone else’s. The sample is 990, which is superficially highly respectable but seems to include the 327 respondents from the inner-city poll published earlier in the week – if so the margin-of-error is between 3.5 and 4 per cent. The poll has the Coalition leading on the primary vote 44.5 per cent to 35.5 per cent with the Greens on 13 per cent, their weakest showing of any poll in the campaign. John Brumby’s lead as preferred premier has narrowed to 43.5-39, and he has crashed to a minus 12.5 per cent personal rating with 34 per cent approval and 46.5 per cent disapproval. Ted Baillieu is on 40 per cent approval and 39 per cent disapproval.

You can read my final review of the situation in Crikey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

148 comments on “Morgan: 51-49 to Coalition in Victoria”

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  1. I voted in the pre-selection for Gidley (Lib in Mt Waverley) even though a polly of his era (factional-young turk) still a decent chap.

  2. William If those fifteen ALP seats you have named all fall then that would leave us with

    ALP 40
    Green 3
    Ind 1
    Liberal/Nats 44
    .

  4. Sorry William I have to disagree. Brunswick in play, Mt. Wavereley, Mitcham, Forest Hill gone, and Gembrook but may prove a suprise, Frankston holding, Prahran Burwood, Mordialloc, sth Barwon too close to call.

  7. William, yes I am sure if Labor-Green are on 44 any independents would feel compelled to support a minority Labor-Green Govt.

    If the Coalition has 44, there are no indies, and Labor has 42-43, would the 1-2 Greens likewise “support” a Coalition minority govt, by say accepting role as speaker?

  8. I’m having difficulty getting a seat-by-seat prediction by Sportsbet or Sportingbet. Could anyone give me a clue how to go about it? I get to the sites OK but can’t progress any further. It’s probably my own ignorance, not being much of a “tech head”, about the only thing Rabbott the Luddite and I have in common. Thanks.

  14. Looking at the information provided by William does seem very positive considering all the polling has shown a swing away from the Government.

    Many of the seats that the ALP person quoted by William seems to think will be held are traditionally not ALP seats therefore for the ALP to hold them and yes it is possible but would be a terrible result for the Liberals.

  16. Glen in the last federal election the Liberals at no stage ran Kick Brumby by kicking Gillard.

    We saw those sorts of campaigns in QLD and NSW but in Victoria the Liberals were quiet which is surprising considering the very close porfessional relationship between Jules and Brumby

  20. [Have you made your predictions for tomorrow?]

    I haven’t changed my opinion – I think ALP will form government in its own right.

  26. If George is an insider then how can you believe a word?

    I still stand by my prediction of a Brumby majority of 2 with the Greens.

    ALP – 45
    Green – 1
    Coalition 42

  28. [yiayia is grandmother? Anyhow, I thought yiayia’s read the Turkish coffee?]

    damn it, it’s late, I’m getting my myths all wrong! .. yes, yes, coffee 😉

  29. [I think ALP will form government in its own right.]

    I wouldn’t mind greens/ independent holding balance like in Tas, ACT and federal, keeps them accountable and honest. Even the WA govt have found they can’t rely on their partners to pass everything.

    A true coalition/ partnership becomes more representative and accountable to the people, if the Nats had stopped being little happy to please puppies to the libs and representative of their constituents then they may have not lost so many seats to independents labor and libs. Too late now, though Crook may reverse the trend.

  30. [If George is an insider then how can you believe a word?]

    One thing “believing” in someone’s opinion Glen, another in reading horsesh*t 😉

  31. centaur009

    I am pretty sure my Greek friends served me Turkish coffee, and then did readings of the silt in the cup. They never called it Greek coffee

  33. castle 129
    [if the Nats had stopped being little happy to please puppies to the libs and representative of their constituents]
    I think this is true throughout Australia – and the Libs are slowly gnawing away at their erstwhile “partners” by slowly winning seats in 3-cornered contests when Nats retire. Crook has I supposed got one “back” – but really the story of the Nats over the last 40 years has been caving in to the Libs and going backwards because (or in spite) of it.

  37. Totally unscientific here, so don’t put too much stock into it but I voice inside my head is telling me that Victoria will have a new Premier soon.

    As I said, it’s just a gut thing, no science behind it, so don’t celebrate or despair too much on those words.

  43. [Rocket a drovers dog could win Crook’s seat at the next Federal election ]

    probably what the libs also think of Windsor and Oakeshotts seats too and maybe even Katters seeing as how he has voted with labor, but we will see.

    Maybe the people will realise the benefit of having Crook representing their interests instead of some self lubricating piece of vermin like Tuckey.

  45. Re: Nielsen Poll (Victoria)

    Two Party Preferred: Labor 48 (-4) Coalition (+4) 52

    If those figures are replicated tomorrow = Premier Baillieu 🙂

  46. tsop

    I had the exact same vibe this arvo just before the morgan poll came out, real strong feeling that there will be huge changes on Monday and moment of quite notable depression, given I am a public servant and been doing all the election PIAPs and other excitement it was a very big surprise to a rational person.

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