Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition

The latest weekly Essential Research survey has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred after three weeks at 51-49. This sets a new record for their best ever performance from Essential Research, which began polling in early 2008. The Coalition primary vote is up a point to 46 per cent, with Labor and the Greens both down one to 37 per cent and 10 per cent. I guess we have to wait another weak for questions on Wikileaks: this week’s supplementary questions relate to whether it’s been a good or bad year for various industries, the environment, political parties, politicians and the respondents personally. Respondents were also asked which news sources they use, which more than any such question I’ve ever seen suggests the long hegemony of television news is under serious threat from “internet news sites”. Six per cent said they used blogs to get news on an average weekday, with intriguing party breakdowns: 10 per cent among Greens supporters, 7 per cent among Coalition supporters and 4 per cent among Labor supporters. Public broadcasters maintain solid lead as the news sources considered most trustworthy.

UPDATE: Roy Morgan phone polled another 528 respondents between Friday and Sunday to add to the 550 polled on Wednesday and Thursday for Friday’s 55-45 result. The additions to the sample have only slightly reduced the Coalition two-party lead, to 54.5-45.5. Together with a weekly Essential Research sample that was bad enough for Labor to drag the rolling fortnighly total from 51-49 to 52-48, there is now meaningful evidence to suggest the Coalition two-party vote is at least as high as 53 per cent. Morgan also has state breakdowns of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott’s personal ratings, though it probably wouldn’t do to read too much into them.

UPDATE 2 (14/12): Westpoll has published a survey of 400 respondents showing the federal Coalition with a two-party lead of 54-46 in WA, compared with 56.4-43.6 at the election, from primary votes of 48 per cent Coalition, 33 per cent Labor and 13 per cent Greens. The poll was conducted between Monday and Wednesday last week, and as usual the sample was 400 and the margin of error about 5 per cent. The poll also finds 61 per cent of respondents supporting gay marriage against 33 per cent opposed. Figures published from the survey yesterday had 35 per cent saying they would be less likely to vote for the state Liberals if Troy Buswell was returned to cabinet, against “almost one in six” more likely and 45 per cent no impact.

UPDATE 3 (14/12): Roy Morgan has now published full figures from the phone poll alluded to in the first update, remembering that half of this is the 55-45 result which was published on Friday. Taken together, the poll has Labor on 31 per cent, the Coalition on 46 per cent and the Greens on 13.5 per cent, with the Coalition’s two-party lead at 54.5-45.5. Results are provided for that half of the survey conducted since the results published on Friday, which are only slightly better for Labor than the Friday figures. Rather pointlessly for a national survey with 1078 respondents, they have also provided us with state breakdowns: here are the Labor two-party figures for each state followed by the election results in brackets, then a rough margin-of-error after the comma. The Victorian figure suggests to me that static from the state election might have been a factor there.

New South Wales: 45.5% (48.8%), 5.25%
Victoria: 47.5% (55.3%), 6%
Queensland: 36.5% (44.9%), 6.75%
Western Australia: 50% (43.6%), 9.5%
South Australia: 52% (53.2%), 10.5%

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,482 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  5. Diog, and what an improvement that is. certainly a dark day for Aust, and probably the clearest sign of a govt in power too long.

  6. Frank @ 3353 – the tofu conspiracy generals have either ‘forgotten’ or tried to shift the arguments they made so passionately so many times that wonder boy had done nothing wrong there was no law in the comos he could possibly have broken – when confronted with how totally wrong they were resorted to cricket fantasies lies and brain fades. Very disappointing.

  7. Indeed, the issue raised its head in the Labor Party’s political assassination of prime minister Kevin Rudd, who defied ALP factional heads by declaring he would not “lurch to the right” on refugee policy to satisfy their demands.

    Following the factions’ subsequent replacement of Mr Rudd with Julia Gillard, Labor’s asylum seeker policy descended into a shambles with Ms Gillard’s ill-considered announcement of the abortive so-called “Timor solution”.

    http://www.theherald.com.au/news/opinion/editorial/general/soul-search-after-tragedy/2028430.aspx?storypage=1

  10. [there was no law in the comos he could possibly have broken]

    Has he been found to have broken any law yet? Has he even been charged with any crime yet?

    *crickets*

  11. There are 100’s of posts on the – how silly is Julia, how there was not even a us charge that could be laid, talk of retrospective – navigating a browser is much less demanding than logic you might be able to manage

  13. WWP

    Just try to find a single post where I said the US wouldn’t be able to find something to charge Assange with.

    Otherwise you are just making crap up.

  14. A-S Tragedy on high seas

    Julia’s presser needed to cover th current ststus , search effeorts , investigations , th horrow and grief , boat & dngerous sea conditions , AND hers & oz horrow and grief , all in a 1 page statemnt

    Suggestions by Rod Hagen & othrs made on this Site she lacked grief or hart is BS , at best

    Bloggers should read it for th facts , its sad

    http://www.pm.gov.au/node/7060

  17. WWP

    [

    Diog you aren’t the only general and do your own dirty work.]

    I’m not making the accusations. You can’t back up your comments and are just making stuff up. It’s not my dirty work, it’s yours. You are spouting crap and have been caught out.

    And

    1. Yes, Gillards comments were silly. Even most Labor supporters have agreed to that.
    2. The US did talk about retrospective legislation.
    3. Assange hasn’t been charged yet.

  22. Well, Bludgers, here come the storms again. Today, the modum & TV aerials stay out for the duration.

    Keep an eye on the cricket for me. You have all done very well today.

  24. I would like to make a suggestion.

    Frank Fenner, the Australian who oversaw the eradication of smallpox for the UN and brought myxomatosis into Oz to rid us of rabbits recently died.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Fenner

    As far as great Australians go they rarely get any greater.

    I propose scrapping the Queens Birthday and having Frank Fenner day instead.

    It would bring great attention to both Oz medical research and to the OZ environment at the same time.

  25. Heard a snippet of Rob Oakeshott on the ABC news at 1.00pm. He was talking again about the rumours sweeping Australia about the response effort and how and why the boat wasn’t detected. He said he didn’t know where this was coming from “stop the Boats” people refugee advocacy groups etc.

    He seems to be shocked and surprised by all the anti AS sentiment. He seems to naive.

    Julia did well addresing the questions of the actual search area and describing how hard it would be to have surveillance in every area 24/7. They do surveillance of about 10% of the globe making it impossible to see every boat. Also repeated radar not working, and boat not seen until off Christmas Island.

    She said there had been a lot of misreporting about the special committee to receive information, but didn’t blame the journalists, excusing their behaviour as having a lot of facts to report.

    I wish she could have told them to stop lying when they report.

  26. Blue_green
    Posted Friday, December 17, 2010 at 9:56 am | Permalink

    I while ago someone. I think gusface called me a ‘concern troll’. I had know idea what it was.

    But here is some definitions from the urban dictionary

    ‘ In an argument (usually a political debate), a CONCERN TROLL is someone who is on one side of the discussion, but pretends to be a supporter of the other side with “concerns”. The idea behind this is that your opponents will take your arguments more seriously if they think you’re an ally. Concern trolls who use fake identities are sometimes known as sockpuppets. ‘

    We got some socketpuppets on PB , who writ pretty nuanced words , gullables believe them

    but you is not one of them socketpuppets
    (BTW even tho i not always agree with what you blogg)

  28. Prime Minister Julia Gillard has previously condemned Mr Assange’s actions, calling them “illegal”.

    But she later moderated her language, saying it was the theft of the US cables that was the illegal act, while Mr Assange’s role was “grossly irresponsible”.

    So they referred the matter to the AFP and were told by return email that there is no crime in the statutes called: ‘Grossly irresponsible in the opinion of a prime minister’.

    Still they’ve done what the US asked them to do – demonise Assange. That will get the left flooding back to the party.

  29. [We got some socketpuppets on PB , who writ pretty nuanced words , gullables believe them

    but you is not one of them socketpuppets
    (BTW even tho i not always agree with what you blogg)]

    Thanks Ron.

    I appreciate that. I also appreciate your posts although, likewise, I do not always agree with them.

  30. ” WHO LOST CHINA” ????????????

    The link below will give you a scholarly article by a US expert on China-US relations in the 1940’ies and 1950’ies when the debate took place in the USA ,after the Communists won the civil war in China and took power there in 1949.

    The USA had backed the regime of ,Chiang Kai Shek’s Nationalists.who fled to Taiwan in 1949.after thier defeat on the mainland.
    It was expected that the Chinese Communists would soon occupy that island too.

    In the USA where Chiang had spent a fortune(mostly US aid !)buying friends,these people now formed what became know as the “China Lobby”…like the Gun Lobby,or the Israeli Lobby in the present time.
    They conducted a series of campaigns…they wanted US intervention(War) in China to restore Chiang to power.

    ..Pres Truman rejected all such talk,then the Lobby moved to collect a Million signatures to stop the new regime in China from occupying it rightful seat in the UN
    This was done and the USA annually rejected a such a move in the UN

    This debate continued until Nixon finally recognized China in 1972 !. after .a lapse of 22 years !..and then went there on a visit !

    Of course Menzies and the Libs supported the USA, though Billy McMahon was caught out badly when Nixon failed to tell him of the coming change of policy..and Whitlam gave Billy a real hiding in the media
    .Whitlam learned of the change a little while before Billy McMahon,who was caught changing planes in Melbourne and repeated his usual anti-China mantra.when Nixon had already announced the change ! It was amazing to watch,and Billy was forced into a later change ,which made his look stupid ! This in the run up to the i972 elections
    and it wasn’t really until Whitlam opened relations with Peking in 1972 that we followed and recognized China too ..

    The Lobby still recognized the the regime on Taiwan as “China” a bizarre act ,with which the USA went along ,blocking all trade and travel with China.,until 1972.

    In Australia which had significant trade with China even then.notably wheat and minerals,Menzies was more pr of farmer-groups here !

    Gradually as China grew in economic power the China Lobby in the USA,.became the Taiwan Lobby,and still remains in existence in Washington today
    Like it’s Israeli counterpart, it is still very rich and influential !

    http://digitalcommons.calpoly.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1026&context=forum

  33. blue_green@3357

    It does strike me as odd that we give half of all our aid to a country that has surpasssed us in total GDP and is growing at 55BN per year.

    Got a reference on that bg ?

    I thought PNG was our single biggest recipient, but that level of assistance is, I believe coming down now ?

  34. Socrates
    “…I support the context of Wikileaks. There is no ethical argument to say a State is justified in covering up evidence of its crimes.”

    no one has said that ,

    yet you and othr Pro Wikileakers avoid th REVERSE charge against Wikileaks of both gross iresponsibility & causing almost certain death to innocent hundreds by leaking in a 400,000 doc set th names of allied informers & colaborators in both Iraq and Afganistan that Assange PERSONALLY is responsibel for in not proper pre checking/redacting , per his OWN Wiki Bord Members public statements last week

    This action be also a criminal offence as well , yet Pro Wikileakers selectively totaly evade admitting this inconvenient fact

  35. Defence Minister Stephen Smith now says the soldiers in Afghanistan will be given two beers for free if their local commanders agree to it.

    It would be a brave commander now who said ‘no’.

  37. Dave

    [The development assistance partnership with Indonesia is Australia’s largest—at over $450 million per year—and the most innovative. It is built on a bedrock of capacity building that will help Indonesia meet the challenges of managing a diverse, decentralised economy of 240 million people where around 14 per cent still live below the national poverty line.]

    http://www.ausaid.gov.au/country/indonesia.cfm

  39. b_g
    [It is built on a bedrock of capacity building that will help Indonesia meet the challenges of managing a diverse, decentralised economy of 240 million people where around 14 per cent still live below the national poverty line.]
    About 14% of Americans now get Food Stamps i.e. approximately below the national poverty line….

  41. If the beer ration system in the army is anything like the navy’s as it used to be, rations can be traded by those who don’t partake to those who do. The result is that those who do partake actually end up enjoying more than the individual ration. Good system.

  49. I’m surprised the AFP cleared Assange and Wikileaks so quickly. Surely they could have scratched up some dodgy half-baked charge to keep their options open.

    Where is their loyalty!!

    Haneef is back in town to remind them don’t let a politician stitch you up.

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