Newspoll quarterly breakdown

The Australian has Newspoll’s quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns, combining results from its six post-election surveys to obtain samples big enough for state, gender and metropolitan/regional breakdowns. These indicate that Labor has held its ground on two-party preferred thanks to gains in Queensland, where their two-party vote of 48 per cent compares with 44.9 per cent at the election. From a low base, the state has delivered a six-point boost to Julia Gillard’s personal ratings, her approval up to 40 per cent and disapproval down to 44 per cent. This has balanced losses in New South Wales (down 1.5 per cent to 48 per cent), South Australia (down 2.2 per cent to 51 per cent) and Victoria (down 0.3 per cent to 55 per cent). Labor is up 1.4 per cent to 45 per cent in Western Australia, in line with Westpoll’s recent results. Labor is down 0.5 per cent across all capitals, driven by a 5.1 per cent fall in the primary vote, and up 1.4 per cent in non-capitals (which I wouldn’t have picked). The Coalition has suffered an unlikely eight point hit on the primary vote among the 35-49 age bracket, a correction after a rogue result in Newspoll’s famed election eve poll.

UPDATE: The last Essential Research survey for the year has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady at 52-48, with Labor up a point on the primary vote to 38 per cent, the Coalition steady on 46 per cent and the Greens steady on 10 per cent. On the poll’s monthly measure of personal ratings, Julia Gillard is steady on approval at 43 per cent and up two on disapproval to 40 per cent, Tony Abbott is one point on each to 39 per cent on each, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is unchanged at 45-34. The big winner from the poll is Julian Assange: 53 per cent approve of the release of the Wikileaks material with just 25 per cent disapproving, and 46 per cent disapprove of the government’s response (the question explicitly referring to the Prime Minister’s “grossly irresponsible” and “illegal” lines) against 32 per cent who approve. Fifty per cent believe Assange should receive support and assistance from the Australian Government if he is charged with an offence by the US or another country, against 26 per cent who believe he should not. The poll also finds 43 per cent support (steady on a year ago) and 37 per cent opposition (up two) for the development of nuclear power plants for electricity.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,153 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdown”

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  1. 3AW news wanted to portray Wilkie as being against the government’s approach to AS, which he is of course but then played a piece of his interview where he also says that the Libs approach is shite as well.

  3. Ankd wikileaks has been so helpful to Zimbabwe too. With Mugabe now calling for Tvangirai to be arrested for treason over leaked US cables about meeting with Zvangirai and the US.

    Good work Mr Wiki.

  4. victoria,

    “Transparency in Government”.

    What is it? When should it apply. How would you apply it? To whom would you apply it?

  5. If Wilkie had any thoughts of supporting Abbott, and I don’t think he has really, Hockey has ensured that won’t happen anytime soon.

  7. [There is no difference between procesing people on CI and Nauru, except that Nauru helped stop the boats.]

    I see you have returned Gee Wizz to peddle your mistruths and lies. I continue to ask for factual evidence for your assertions. you have none. So please go away and don’t return until you have concrete evidence to back up what you say.

  8. Truthy even if your list o Howard achievements was right it is a pathetic legacy – buy let’s pick one of the achievements ‘tax reform’ that is I’m the same bucket as achieving massive paycuts for female retail worker (either stupid or evil) there was no tax reform – a big new tax on everything but things the democrats liked at the time and a couple of stupid tax cuts for the rich (cgt being the stupidest) and other than that wasted the boom on middle class welfare and paying for his stupid as policy would have been cheaper to give them all a brand new house in a capital city.

  9. Gary
    If viewing Bill Leak cartoons makes me a racist right winger I think your the one who needs to get a sense of humour 🙂

    Leak has taken the mickey out of all parties
    Bet you didn’t mind ones like this?

  10. bg

    Wikileaks could be the best thing ever for repressive Governments. First Anwar in Malaysia, and now Tvangari.

    Rejoice lefties.

  12. [“Transparency in Government”.

    What is it? When should it apply. How would you apply it? To whom would you apply it?]
    I think the Libs in Vic have made a rod for their own backs promising this. You watch, once they start dealing with companies, transparency will fly out of the window.

  13. victoria

    He said he remembered the incident clearly, described Abbott leaning back in his chair with his feet on the ?coffee table and saying wtte what about if we offered to double the refugee intake? He says it was at the stage when Abbott was wtte “searching around for points of negotiation”, but Wilkie didn’t take it up because he didn’t want to negotiate on too broad a front, so he chose other items for agreement.
    He’s critical of Labor policy on AS but much more so on Libs, especially Nauru solution, I think he said immoral and illegal but don’t quote me.

  14. [See, people that think there is proof that these policies ‘worked’ shouldn’t be in the ALP (assuming News Limited didn’t just make this up). What is it with ALP politicians talking to News Limited. Might as well go and confess to Tony Abbott directly. It has the same effect.]

    Whatever your political persuation, the numbers are undeniable, after the introduction of the PS the boats stopped.

    I have no problem with people saying they are against the Pacific Solution for whatever reason, but I think it’s a stretch to say it didn’t stop the boats when even blind freddy can look at the numbers and see it did. It’s just undeniable.

  15. so Greens Rod Hagen wants to selectively quote me to HIDE that Greens polisy is unhumane

    Greens polisy does not care tht Greens encourage boat peoples to take dangerous sea trips ….and so many drown as hav occurred in PAST years It is as unhuimane as Abbotts

    Greens use A-S cynicaly to win Votes from th ‘left’ , just like Abbott from th rite

    In fact Greens polisy is lin effct aso ‘open door’ , plus a tax payer full funded life style thereafter w/o proper security pre checks if one reads all there polisy , and not selectiv bits greens post that i’ve prev expozed

  16. Wilkie also said that we have no idea how many boats have set out from Indonesia (or other places) and been lost at sea. He said the only solution is to stop the trade at its source.

  17. GG

    He’s an equal opportunity bagger.

    Ron

    Biden is all over the place. Is he saying the NYT, the Guardian etc are also terrorists. Nope.

    He has also said

    [BIDEN: I don’t think there’s any damage. I don’t think there’s any substantive damage, no. ]

  18. Gee Whiz,

    No one’s buying your correlation equals causation nonsense. Repeating it ad nauseum, does not make it true.

    Please come up with a more intelligent argument. This one bores every one.

  19. Geewhiz

    The problem with blind freddie is that he doesn’t know anything except what is published in the narrow Aus media. There were other factors which “stopped the boats”, which you could find out for yourself if you did a bit of research.

  22. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, December 20, 2010 at 11:59 am | Permalink

    bg

    Wikileaks could be the best thing ever for repressive Governments. First Anwar in Malaysia, and now Tvangari.

    Rejoice lefties.]

    But, but, but, but Assange said that if we stop the evil empire conspiring amongst itself then the world would transform into a utopia of peace and transparency.

    I am sure these minor unintended consequences that affect millions of peoples lifes are just speedbumps on the road to utopia.

  23. Diogenes

    you left out your hero mate POTUS Obama’s condemn of Wikileaks !

    xplain

    ‘ Obama has led worldwide condemnation of WikiLeaks, calling its actions “deplorable”

  25. Actually Howards tax reforms were a lot more than just the GST.

    Starting in 2001, Howard began to cut income taxes significantly.

    We’ve seen the reverse from Labor in the last few years, they have been increasing taxes.

    Now taxes are in my view the most important issues in Australians lives. It is basically deciding how much Australians will make every week and how much they will have to spend on themselves. A good government keeps out of peoples lives and out of their pockets as well, and this government has failed miserably at doing just that.

  27. why is Assangne , th beleiver in Leaking , everything anything , freedom of info & all that , now complaining

    ‘ The Guardian newspaper published previously unseen police documents that accused Mr Assange in graphic detail of sexually assaulting two Swedish women. One witness is said to have stated: “Not only had it been the world’s worst screw, it had also been

    In an editorial, The Guardian defended its decision to report (LEAK) on the incriminating police files. It said having been given access to the official papers, it had a DUTY to present a “brief summary” of the sex allegations against Mr Assange, together with his response.”

    th leaker just got leaked on

    (Assange should believed my criteria for whistle blowing criteria for lcassifyed leaking )

  29. Another one gone? Good riddance to his sort

    Obeid retirement just speculation, says Keneally

    “Obeid is openly canvassing moving on,” an unnamed Labor source told News Ltd.

    But the premier has poured cold water on the report.

    “Mr Obeid … has been in the Parliament since 1991, made a substantial contribution and he is elected to serve until 2015,” Ms Keneally told ABC Radio today.

    “Any such decision is a matter for him. But, you know, he has a number of grandchildren. I understand why he might be thinking about these sorts of things.

    “But, you know, until he has spoken on the matter, I think this is all just speculation.”

    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/obeid-retirement-just-speculation-says-keneally-20101220-192ht.html

  32. blue_green

    I heard a couple of interviews just after the boat had sunk, one in Indonesia and one on CI.
    In Indonesia, a young woman said she was very worried because her sister might have been on the smashed vessel. They had been waiting, I think 12 months, and she thought her sister might have seized an offer to go.
    On CI, a man has lost his wife and children, who were coming to join him.

    It sounds to me as if there are some families who could be reconciled without needing to be put in such danger. Also that a lot of the recommendations to boats are word of mouth.
    One man said that the danger of a boat sinking was nothing compared to what he suffered before he left home.

    It was Howard et al who turned all AS into potential terrorists and emphasised “border protection”.

  33. Ron

    Obama is not my hero. He was better than the alternatives though.

    Let’s face it. Hillary’s department is the one that was so useless it lost 250,000 documents.

  36. [“Mr Obeid … has been in the Parliament since 1991, made a substantial contribution and he is elected to serve until 2015,” Ms Keneally told ABC Radio today.]

    “substantial contribution”. This is an outright lie. The man has hardly said a word in parliament in his whole tenure.

  37. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Monday, December 20, 2010 at 12:17 pm | Permalink

    bg,

    Freedom of revealing other people’s speech is a logical extension to the Rights of Man.]

    I get it. It is my right to know what the US is saying in private conversations with other politicians. So logically, therefore, it is the right of brutal tyrants to use that information to enslave their people.

  38. Diog that is just a cheap nasty personal spit at Hilary. Some wikileaks cheerleader pointed out that colon Powell was the SOS that was responsible for the setup.

    Apparently they were trying to share information to try and help stop another 911 – no doubt info will be much less accessible going forward.

  40. WWP

    Hillary is in charge of State. There has been universal criticism of the “porosity” of State’s computer security.

    The truth hurts.

  42. Lizzie,

    OK that is a small taste of the motivations. I am amazed that I can’t find a thorough review of this in the academic literature.

    I can find stuff on:
    -the domestic legal perspective
    -the international legal perspective
    -the international relations perspective
    -the ethical perspective
    -the health of asylum seekers
    -the level of integration of asylum seekers into the community
    -the politics of asylum seekers
    -the public opinion of asylum seekers

    but I can find next to nothing about the How and Why asylum seekers get here. No wonder there is no decent policy, there is nothing to base the policy on.

  46. blue_green

    I suppose the govt weren’t giving out any money for that sort of research. If they are demonising people, they don’t want the truth!!!

  47. [“substantial contribution”. This is an outright lie. The man has hardly said a word in parliament in his whole tenure.]

    b_g it depends on what you call ‘substantial contribution’. I bet it’s not the same as my call on it.

  48. [GeeWizz
    Posted Monday, December 20, 2010 at 12:14 pm | Permalink
    $24 Wholesale for 12Mbps

    Telstra charge $7 Bucks

    Houston we have a problem]

    gee you must be the only customer on that one, get real,
    i have the bill in front of me its 49,95 we did a little deal with them and for a few months now we have a 20 reduction on our phone rent but that finished soon.,

    7 dollars NO way.

  50. WWP

    Hillary is in charge of State.

    State has lost 250,000 documents due to a pathetically shoddy computer security system.

    There is universal condemnation of the US’s computer security.

    All of those are facts. You might not like them but they are true.

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