Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition

NOTE: Server issues appear to have deprived the site of a day’s worth of data, hopefully not permanently. Here’s the post that went missing.

The latest weekly Essential Research poll shows no change on last week: the Coalition is on 45 per cent of the primary vote, Labor is on 37 per cent and the Greens are on 11 per cent, with the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred. These results cover two separate periods of surveying from Tuesday to Sunday over the previous fortnight. Essential tells us that 90 per cent of those polled in the second of the two periods were questioned after the government’s flood levy announcement.

The headline-grabber over the short term is likely to be a question on respondents’ favoured method of funding flood reconstruction, which was formulated before the levy proposal was announced. The question is entirely reasonable given what was known at the time it was framed, but is wide open to misinterpretation in light of subsequent events. As such, we can shortly expect to hear tosh of the “78 per cent oppose the flood levy” variety, based on the fact that only 22 per cent picked this as their favoured option. Since respondents were allowed only one choice out of five, we have an entirely predictable result in which no one option was heavily favoured. “Scrap or postpone the NBN” attracted 28 per cent (or 72 per cent opposed, if you want to be dishonest about it), but “sell off Medibank Private” got only 2 per cent. Of the 10 per cent who chose “raise taxes on mining company profits”, I suggest most would settle for the flood levy if that was what was on offer. Twenty-four per cent opted for “postpone returning the budget to surplus”, which neither major party is advocating.

Fortunately, Essential Research did add an extra question on straight approval or disapproval of the flood levy after it was announced, the results of which will be announced on the Channel Ten news this evening (UPDATE: Actually George Negus’s program at 6pm). So do tune in for that, and take with a grain of salt anything you might hear from the news media in the interim.

The survey also canvassed which services would be better run by the private or government sectors. The government was overwhelmingly favoured for utilities, roads, public transport, prisons and universities, with the private sector favoured heavily for broadband and property insurance, and slightly for health insurance.

UPDATE: Essential Research has now published figures on the flood levy proposal, and it’s bad news for the government: 53 per cent disapprove (29 per cent strongly), against only 39 per cent who approve (12 per cent strongly). There’s some consolation for the government in that 41 per cent of Greens voters oppose the levy, suggesting some of the opposition is coming from the left – the 24 per cent who favoured keeping the budget in deficit, who are presumably even less impressed with Tony Abbott’s approach. Opposition is strongest in New South Wales and Victoria, with opinion evenly divided in Queensland (although samples here would have been fairly small). Since 45 per cent of the voting intention results come from after the announcement, the poll might be seen to offer evidence that the overall effect on voting intention has been neutral, although it’s not much to go on. A Newspoll tonight would be nice.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,528 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Coalition”

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  1. CW

    [Mr Abbott is late with his homework. He promised detailed cuts would be announced by now. What is his excuse? Did the dog eat his budget savings? Or is it just that Mr Abbott is all politics and no policy?]

    This one?

  2. A Turnbull/Hockey joint ticket would destroy Abbott.

    I assume Bishop and Pyne would follow Turnbull/Hockey over Abbott which means it wouldn’t be a contest.

    Abbott would only have Robb’s support and after the business regarding IR today in The Australian, I think his loyalty to Abbott might be slipping.

  6. Did anyone notice one of the journos asking Julia at her press conference if BER school buildings were damaged by the cyclone?
    WTF was the purpose of that question?

  7. Will Julia Gillard decisively getting 4000 soldiers into clean up Townsville actually win over the 4000 soldiers based there? Becasue they would have voted as a coalition block at the election.

  8. My blood is boiling from listening to that dolt Chris Smith earlier on 2GB in Sydney, arguing that Queensland should get no federal assistance because they didn’t take out disaster insurance – presumably this is the Unhinged One’s next line of attack.

  9. Evan,

    Just send him an email and ask him to go shopping for said insurance to find out how much it costs and how little it covers.

  13. I noticed this on Bolt’s blog. I haven’t listened to the interview yet (along with everyone else as it was on MTR) but will later to see if that is indeed what Albo said

    [
    On our MTR 1377 show today:

    ….

    one of our favorite Left-wingers, Infrastructure Minister Anthony Albanese, about cutting grants to Victorian rail projects and Queensland’s reckless failure to insure its public assets as other states do, which is why the rest of us need to hand over another $1.5 billion. Alabanese refuses to condemn the Labor state government, but suggests getting Queensland to take out insurance in future may on the agenda in future talks.
    ]

    http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/mtr_todayfebruary_5/

  14. I don’t usually have a lot of time for Lee Rhiannon, but I just caught the tail end of last night’s The Nation. When asked about Abbott’s performance she nailed him … commenting that he had no policy platforms and that the media is making him look better than he has been performing.

  15. I have just realised that unless Abbott releases his plans today, he will be touring Qld arguing against the levy but without an alternative plan to argue for. Thats bad tactics.

  16. vp,

    [I hope someone tells RAbbott before he gets to NQ that he has already outstayed his welcome. ]

    He might ask Howard if he can borrow his bullet proof vest to take up north with him.

    It’s in perfect condition and hasn’t needed to be used “SO” far! 😉

  17. Scorps,

    [vp,

    I hope someone tells RAbbott before he gets to NQ that he has already outstayed his welcome.

    He might ask Howard if he can borrow his bullet proof vest to take up north with him.

    It’s in perfect condition and hasn’t needed to be used “SO” far! ]

    Is the Popemobile free?

  19. theodric,

    [ Opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey last week promised to release an alternative funding plan by the time parliament resumes.

    He just needs to find an old envelope to do the sums on. ]

    I believe his political god father, JH, still has a few left over! 😉

  21. blue_green,

    [So Newspoll will be underway this weekend with Gillard on an ascendancy and Abbott on a decline. ]

    I bet they’re dirty they didn’t do it last week when they had the chance! 😉

  23. blue-green:

    Abbott has spent the best part of 12 months arguing against something and having no alternative plan. It hasn’t hurt him yet, so why should he stop now?

  25. [confessions
    Posted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 2:07 pm | Permalink

    blue-green:

    Abbott has spent the best part of 12 months arguing against something and having no alternative plan. It hasn’t hurt him yet, so why should he stop now?]

    He will be walking through a disaster zone and arguing against the govts approach to fixing things up. He has been asked about his savings for the last two days.

    My guess is he will want local journos only and not gallery ones. He might not do any long pressers; just small local fm station interviews.

  26. This is the same shadow cabinet that deliberately buried an $11billion dollar black hole. Are Hogwarts going to run the ruler of this one?

    Well, when you think about it, if Abbott puts up the same savings as during the election, this story will write itself:

    “Abbott recycles Black Hole for cyclone savings”

    Or, if they don’t mention anything from the campaign, but find totally new savings:

    “Yasi, Black Hole gone in puff of smoke (and mirrors)”

    And if they leave some “savings” alone, resurrecting others then we’ll know what they reckon were fakes during the campaign:

    “Dud savings stay in Black Hole”

  27. I must note my very unrandom poll of known libs on my floor has moved to the following defencenof Tony:

    He is just keeping the chair warm for …

  28. blue_green

    Comments: Dear Ms Wong

    I am a blogger on a site called The Pollbludger,where we discuss all things political and dream up suggestions to help our ALP. Well, most of us, anyway.

    The following was posted by a blogger called blue_green, who has given me permission to pass it onto you.

    In the interests of straight forward and humorous language. If you can’t send them off, send them up.

    # 4433 blue_green
    Posted Friday, February 4, 2011 at 1:22 pm | Permalink

    â?oMr Abbottâ?Ts failure to release his savings options highlights that since day one he has played politics with this crisis,â?

    This sentence is terrible rhetoric. You would have to hear it a few times over to undertand what it means.

    How about:

    Mr Abbott is late with his homework. He promised detailed cuts would be announced by now. What is his excuse? Did the dog eat his budget savings? Or is it just that Mr Abbott is all politics and no policy?

    That would get you an online headline and a spot on the nightly news.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/01/31/essential-research-51-49-to-coalition-6/comment-page-89/#comments

    Automatic email response in return as follows. I supplied my postal address as requested if I wanted a postal response. Will let you know in a few months, I imagine.

    Thank you for your time, your comments have been successfully forwarded to Senator the Hon Penny Wong

    This message has been forwarded to you from the Senators Online Contact Form on the Senate Website. If you intend to reply via email to the submitter, please ensure you do not reply to the above autoresponder@aph.gov.au address. If the submitter supplied an email address it will appear at the end of this message.

  29. Very amusing Crikey Whitey

    I like the:

    [Dear Ms Wong

    I am a blogger on a site called The Pollbludger,where we discuss all things political and dream up suggestions to help our ALP. Well, most of us, anyway.]

  30. spur212

    Abbott would only have Robb’s support and after the business regarding IR today in The Australian, I think his loyalty to Abbott might be slipping.

    An extremely generous assessment of robb.

    robb’s only loyalty is to himself and he will knife abbott for the leadership as soon as he thinks he can seize it.

    Business people etc have made it clear they regard hockey as a buffoon. That was even before the $10 B budget black hole.

    I reckon the question is whether Turnbull can get his party onside again and put utegate/gretch etc behind him. Probably not.

  31. confessions,

    [blue-green:
    Abbott has spent the best part of 12 months arguing against something and having no alternative plan. It hasn’t hurt him yet, so why should he stop now? ]

    He’s taking his lead from Bob Dyer. “Remember customers, when you’re on a good thing, stick to it!”

    As a fisherman, old Bob sure knew how to reel them in! 😉

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Dyer

  32. [Opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey last week promised to release an alternative funding plan by the time parliament resumes.

    ]

    prior to the election, the LNP had $49.4b savings and revenue increases in the Wednesday before the election rushed out Hogwarts document. I think Abbott quoted this yesterday when he said they had ” identified $50b in savings before the election”. Maybe someone can check this?

    This could be another pinnochio moment – the $49.4b included revenue of $6.1b from Abbot’s Paid Parental Leave levy, and the $11b black hole identified.

  33. sprocket_

    [This could be another pinnochio moment – the $49.4b included revenue of $6.1b from Abbot’s Paid Parental Leave levy, and the $11b black hole identified.]

    Sorry, but they let him get away with it during the election campaign, they’ll let him get away with it again.

    Teflon Tone! 😉

  35. Nah, I wouldn’t rely on the media to bring down Abbott, Turnball and the remaining moderates will have to blast him out at some stage in the future.
    With bimbos like Melissa Clarke on his side, Phoney must feel bulletproof! 😉

  36. WOW! 😆

    [Malawi moves to ban farting
    Posted 57 minutes ago

    Malawi’s government has confirmed reports that it intends to outlaw breaking wind in public.

    The African nation’s justice ministry says the proposed legislation is part of a wider campaign to “mould responsible and disciplined citizens”.

    Local media is questioning how the proposed law will be enforced when it is so easy to blame the offence on others.]

  39. Re Morgan…………………………….
    While he is a real conservative,Morgan is very professional,and I am sure very careful with his polling.,and very proud of his work.

    His father Roy Morgan was the founder of polling in Australia after WW2, having worked with Dr Gallup in the USA,who was the real founder of opinion polls.

    Roy was a great personal friend of Menzies,who according to several people who have written about him,was no great fan of polls.He thought that they gave a view of public opinion but leaders ought to set the agenda and stick to it.
    he would have hated focus groups…….

  42. dont post often but read daily.i was in proserpine several hrs ago the line up at the local gas station of emergency service trucks ie ergon energy state emergency ses disaster managemet truck sretched block after block all heading to tully. anna bligh at her best again. not sitting on her arse like abbott windging like a stuck pig..qeenslander…A

  45. [THE Gillard government could have avoided its temporary floods levy if it had managed schools stimulus programs better, the federal opposition argues.]
    So that’s Tone’s way of funding the recovery! Well done, son!

  46. Hi everyone

    I see you’ve all been having fun during my enforced timeout (power went off).

    I thought I read that Abbott’s idea for helping flood victims will be aimed at business.
    If this is true, it follows a theme, methinks. He’ll get more vote support from them. He will also play up any that slip through Fed/State funding gaps.

  47. [Malawi’s government has confirmed reports that it intends to outlaw breaking wind in public.]
    Mr Abbott said he was against the Great Big New Law. He proposed, instead, a levy on spitting.

  50. Malawi moves to ban farting
    Posted 57 minutes ago

    We had some customers around the other day for dinner and a demo. As we all – including the dogs – sat on the lounge after dinner it an odiferous presence became appalingly apparent.

    When it couldn’t be ignored any more, I whispered to my customer’s wife, “It’s OK, we’ll pretend it was the dog.”

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