Morgan has published results from a phone poll of 561 respondents conducted over the three previous nights, which suggests the recent flood levy debate has been one more episode of sound and fury that has no substantial effect on voting intention. The Coalition leads on the primary vote 42.5 per cent to 35 per cent, with the Greens on 12 per cent. After distribution of preferences as they split at the 2010 election, the Coalition has a two-party lead of 51-49. Morgan however has used the less reliable method of respondent allocation for its headline figure of 50.5-49.5. Also featured are results on leaders’ personal ratings, and here there has been significant movement: Tony Abbott’s approval rating has slumped eleven points since December to 39 per cent, with his disapproval up seven to 46 per cent. Julia Gillard is down three on approval to 46 per cent and up four on disapproval to 42 per cent. On preferred prime minister, Gillard’s lead has widened from 46-39 to 49-36. Since this is a phone poll, none of the usual qualifications about Morgan face-to-face polling’s bias to Labor apply. However, what does apply is a fairly substantial margin of error of about 4 per cent, owing to the small sample size.
The poll also canvassed opinion on preferred leaders of the major parties, finding Julia Gillard with only a modest lead of 31 per cent to 26 per cent over Kevin Rudd – well down on the 13-point lead Morgan recorded in a phone poll on December 8-9. While the sample on both polls was small, a question on preferred leader other than the incumbent suggests Rudd’s popularity has recovered since a post-election dive: his 36 per cent response is roughly where it was in July and August, but up nine points on December. That Gillard has lost so much ground in the head-to-head to contest with Rudd over time points to her own decline in absolute terms. The order of also-rans runs Stephen Smith (12 per cent), Wayne Swan (11 per cent) and Bill Shorten (9 per cent).
The same set of questions with regard to the Liberal Party shows Tony Abbott slipping to third place, though this is due to a gain for Joe Hockey (up four points since December to 25 per cent) at the expense of Malcolm Turnbull (down three to 28 per cent, though still in front), rather than a significant move in Abbott’s rating (down one to 24 per cent). On the question of preferred leader other than Abbott, Turnbull leads Hockey 35 per cent to 32 per cent, with no others in serious contention.
[I didn’t notice Savva’s hair or clothes much so I went back to the ABC site and watched her again.Strangely enough her clothes are roughly the same shaped clobber the PM wears and her hair is a similar no-fuss style. Who is she to criticise the PM’s dress? As the other lady said, a suit is a suit is a suit.]
It’s something that hits you between the eyes again and again. Right wing projection. The tendency of right wingers to project their own motivations/behaviour onto their opponents.
TSOP
Andrew Robb is about as convincing as a wet towel. He definitely does not engender confidence.
Socrates @ 1032
Murdoch owns a wide range of the UK press – bottom of the barrel publications such as the Sun or News of the World – through to the Time at the top. The Sun competes against the Labour leaning Dail Mirror whilst the Times is up against the Guardian, Independent and the Daily Telegraph. Political analysis at the bottom end – probably woeful – at the top end amongst the best in the world and coming from different points of view. Helps not to generalise when running with your own biases.
[Andrew Robb is about as convincing as a wet towel. He definitely does not engender confidence.]
To you and me, yes. To average Australia, he is that guy who made some good one-liners about the competence of the current Labor govt.
TSOP
Gee really. I must have my head in the sand. I really did not see it at all. I actually feel a little sorry for the man.
TSOP:
Although I think the Coalition Mental Health boost was one of the two platforms I most regret not having (along with PPL), I have to say that Robb has NO CHANCE of being leader given his previous serious depression. The party, and I suspect the public, will just not buy it, there is still too much stigma attached to any history of mental health issues.
blackburnpseph
[The Oz article on Friday was about government insurance – private insurance is another matter. But the lack of insurance by either, and then expecting somebody else to pick up the financial pieces is a classic case of moral hazard.]
How is it moral hazard for the government not to have insurance? The moral hazard argumetn only applies ot private individuals who are uninsured but still expect the govt to pay their priate losses, thereby having no incentive to avoid them.
The government pays out either way for repairs to government owned assets. It is only a question of whther it pays in installments via insurance premiums (plus a hefty profit margin, plus the risk that, as in the GFC, some insurers may struggle to pay up) or pays as a lump sum when the disaster comes. That is why governments don’t bother to insure risks that keep cropping up.
I seriously think this whole insurance meme is partly a sales pitch by the insurance industry, desperate for more revenue after their disastrous failrue to adequately estimate and price risks in the GFC.
blackburnpseph
I wasn’t arguing that the UK Fleet Street media was poor. How is that biased?
bbp
in any case, I would love to have asked Roskam to answer this question.
Why is it then that Ballieu our State Vic premier is expecting the Feds to pay 75% of the overall cost of infrastruture repairs required here?
[Although I think the Coalition Mental Health boost was one of the two platforms I most regret not having (along with PPL), I have to say that Robb has NO CHANCE of being leader given his previous serious depression. The party, and I suspect the public, will just not buy it, there is still too much stigma attached to any history of mental health issues.]
Only Nixon could go to China, my friend. 😉
I’m not advocating his leadership or saying he’s a favourite, just saying he’s a possibility.
no one has mentioned Scott Morrison?
Darren true expect i recall the America media did question was Obama black enough or was he actually an American or was he a Muslim
victoria,
Creepy would be an horrific leader, but I would lay money on them going with him before they go to buffoon Sloppy, Mesma or Robb.
[no one has mentioned Scott Morrison?]
I’ve heard him mentioned frequently.
He is truly an unknown factor. Has both the potential to be a huge success, or a huge failure.
[victoria
Posted Sunday, February 6, 2011 at 4:05 pm | Permalink
no one has mentioned Scott Morrison?]
Hes a good performer, no doubt, but doubt a one-termer would win in a party which arguably has more Ministerial experience than the current government!
[It’s something that hits you between the eyes again and again. Right wing projection. The tendency of right wingers to project their own motivations/behaviour onto their opponents.]
Yep, and Mod Lib did it just a second ago.
[As evident by many ALP supporters here, wealth is a sign of evil.]
He has considered ALP supporters’ criticism of the distasteful and unethical actions of certain wealthy individuals (cf. Reinhart or Murdoch) as meaning they therefore think wealth itself is evil, just because he himself sees people who act unethically or distastefully as evil.
The issue of Julia Gillard’s appearnce is one that should be discussed – as it is out there being discussed by the general public. It is amazing how often it comes up in general comments from people who are a) voters for the left anyway b) surprising that they even take notice. It will always be harder for a woman in the public eye that it is for a man – the male business suit is more generic and more forgiving, but I think there are overtones that she doesn’t care and that she should care. There is also the issue that the apperance will overshadow the substance of what is being said. The comments that I have heard are not about the pant suits as such but about the size (jackets too small) and the cut of the jackets (the asymmetrical lapel for one), and the jackets are too short for JG’s shape. You can always go too far the other way (Julie Bishop looks too prissy and perfect) as well, so a happy medium needs to be struck.I will put one thought out there for you – imagine if Ron Boswell was PM, there would be comments coming thick and fast about how badly he dresses.
Darren,
Without projection, slogans and spin, the right wingers’ cupboard would be bare. Talk about hollow!
Further to 1956 here is the article I linked ot a few days ago, where The Australian ran a story in July 2010 about a Swiss Re insurance salesman who was in Australai trying to sprui the idea that governments shoudl insure against disasters. As I said then, the only governments that had done it (Mexico and California) had lousy credit ratings and couldn’t be sure they could borrow. Otherwise, as the Swiss Re guy said:
[Although most home owners and businesses are insured, governments have relied on their taxation powers or state-owned insurance businesses to cover these costs.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/governments-insure-infrastructure/story-e6frg8zx-1225886898860
[I reckon Rudd is done, he is campaigning for another job now (as you all know is my view but lets not re-start that given I am Robinson Crusoe on that view!!!!!)]
agree with the first part
I think he will retire next election
Cuppa
[Without projection, slogans and spin, the right wingers’ cupboard would be bare. Talk about hollow!]
amen to that !!
Scott Morrison is definitely a potential liberal leader – it would help if he had experience somewhere else than immigration – somewhere less populist, more meaty (for want of a better word).
The sooner the Libs move Joe Hockey out treasury the better, it is oxmoronian but the man is a serious lightweight. Tony Abbott is not good at economics so it would help if we has not being dragged down by someone who is ‘meant’ to be good at economics.
Socrates
I have a strong feeling that this insurance meme won’t go any further now. Especially in light of State Libs here in Victoria putting their hand out for money from the feds to fix our roads/rail/bridges etc. After this weekend, the repair costs here in Vic have risen dramatically. As they say, it has been a game changer!!
http://johnquiggin.com/index.php/archives/2011/02/04/factor-of-five/
[The Oz reports Opposition spokesman Greg Hunt, saying that “FAMILIES face electricity price rises of up to $1100 a year” under a carbon price of $30/tonne. Oz reporter James Massola doesn’t check the arithmetic behind this scary claim, so I guess it’s a job for the blogosphere]
Sprung!!!
Re Brotherhood now in talks with regime in Cairo…….
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
What may be a very significant events the leaders of the Moslem Brotherhood are said to be in talks with the army re the ending of Mubarek’s regime
The Brotherhood must have very wide support because of it’s wide range of social aid activities among the poor,,of whom there is a vast army in Egypt where neo-liberal
economic policies have enriched a tiny minority know as the “40 Families”(see also the likes of Gina Reinhardt) and led to great poverty for most
!Shades of the USA !!
The Brothers are insistent on their demands for trials of Mubarek’s gang…that will be a major event !.
Rod Hagen 1596.
I’ve got “muddie” too.
Another advantage of having brick floors throughout is if you have an elderly dog who doesn’t always make it to a tree in the backyard its easy to clean up & there are no stains or lingering odours.
blackburnpseph,
The very thing that makes Morrison attractive is that he is vaguely familiar but had no real negative history, at least from a msm/general public point of view. He has also been a team player which will keep the party room hacks happy.
Which is why, IMHO, why they will choose to go with him.
blackburnpseph
[The issue of Julia Gillard’s appearnce is one that should be discussed – as it is out there being discussed by the general public.]
Really? I’d put it on a par with Joe Hockey’s weight, Andrew Robb’s depression, John Howard’s teeth capping and the LOTO’s budgie smugglers, though there are other issues invovled in the latter too. Honestly, one minute you go on about the standard of political debate in the media, the next minute you proceed to lower it even further.
Hard to see Rudd staying on after the next election unless he thought he was in with a big chance for getting the big job back. On the other hand, he would need a job with uberstatus to go to as it can be imagined that he would not handle relevance deprivation well.
SK
You could be right
[imagine if Ron Boswell was PM, there would be comments coming thick and fast about how badly he dresses. ]
I’ve heard it said that he often forgets to do his flies up. That would look great during Question Time! 😉
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/06/3131210.htm?section=world
TALKS IN CAIRO INVOLVE BROTHERHOOD>>>>>>>>>>>>>>see 1974 above……..
Socrates
You might be having deep and meaningful conversations all the time, but seriously, there are a massive number of Australians discussing Julia Gillards appearance – and I am surprised by those who are making the comments – people who don’t usually make those type of comments.
victoria
Good point about Victoria re: insurance. Since they are listed as one of the states that “had” disaster insurance they won’t need any Fed money will they?? Oops!
Blackburnpseph those talking points won’t save you now 🙂
SK
You are quite right on Morrison, that is why is would be interesting to see how he would go as say Shadow Treasurer or Finance.
blackburnpseph
[and I am surprised by those who are making the comments – people who don’t usually make those type of comments.]
I don’t pretend all my conversations are deep and meaningful. I just know what I don’t need to know. I don’t intend to add to those comments – the world is oversupplied with stupid comments already.
Not that I haven’t forgotten myself once or twice! 😉
Socrates and Victoria
A lot of the assets damaged in Victoria would be owned by local government – and if one states gets the cash why shouldn’t the other. They might get to save their No Claim Bonus!!
Footage of Gillard responding to ‘wooden’ claim: she is interested in, wtte, ‘substance over style.’
Socrates
there is video link here. The PM was on meet the press this morning. Questions re insurance arrangements are answered.
http://ten.com.au/video-player.htm?movideo_p=41949&movideo_m=90403
[but seriously, there are a massive number of Australians discussing Julia Gillards appearance – and I am surprised by those who are making the comments – people who don’t usually make those type of comments.]
Yes, but our point is that it is not fair political discourse.
By all means media minders might consider it, particularly in the context of an election campaign where appearances are everything, but the fact that the media and so-called political journalists focus on it lowers the political debate in this country to what you’d encounter in a pub on a boozy Friday night.
Shame on the press gallery and their misogynistic masters.
Victoria
Thanks for the link. I’m off to watch some cricket. Happy bludging to all.
On the govt self-insurance issue and how things are paid for.
One thing that needs to be cleared up is that the government just have a big bucket of money that they can spend on whatever each year. This is not so.
There are three levels of government. Each earns its own sources of income. But all income is not equal. Some are regulated by legislation, some are trusts, some funding is tied (i.e. given by other levels of government for a specific purpose) some is recurrent funding, usually for maintenance.
Self insurance is often the ONLY recourse for governments because the insurance companies will not cover them under any circumstances because the perceived risk return ratio is not worth taking on the risk.
Government choose to self insure for other reasons, the key one being that the size of the administrative effort and response times required for all those government assets is best handled in house.
If Abbott is rolled in the next couple of months, do you think the next leader will last until the election.
Scott Morrison is currently $151, but it has to be the leader at the next election. I will probably lose my money, but with Abbott being $1.50 he is definately the wrong price.
[The Oz article on Friday was about government insurance – private insurance is another matter. But the lack of insurance by either, and then expecting somebody else to pick up the financial pieces is a classic case of moral hazard.]
blackburnpseph, this issue was clearly explained – not once but several times, on several programmes – on the day TheOz, as usual, didn’t do its homework before going into print; either that or it deliberately misled people hoping no one picked up on it.
1. Enhanced Natural Disaster Mitigation and Management (2 February 2004) (aka Matthews Report) significantly upgraded Fed, State & Territories’ approach to disaster management & funding arrangements. Note a pdf “COAG Review of Natural Disaster Relief & Mitigation Arrangements is available on http://www.ag.gov.au/…/Improving+Emergency+Management+Outcomes+for+Remote+Indigenous+Communities.pdf NOTE: It’s a HOWARD GOV arrangement, as well as being easily accessible, so there’s no excuse for Oz reporters not to check their facts before going into print!
[“Natural disasters are traumatic, and cost Australian communities hundreds of millions of dollars each year. However, more can be done to prepare for such events and to mitigate their impact.
“This report provides a practical and strategic approach for all spheres of government and the community to work in partnership to protect against, and assist in recovery from, the impacts of natural disasters.”
Implementation of the report’s recommendations will be overseen by the Australian Emergency Management Committee (AEMC). The AEMC is coordination by Emergency Management Australia.]
Arrangements have been regularly reviewed & fine-tuned since, inc 30 April 2009 (after Black Saturday fires) and 20 April 2010 (after SW Qld floods – the ones that had Barnaby flooded in); all of which can be googled; pages & pdfs downloaded.
2. Re Infrastructure No state insures key infrastructure. COAG arrangements are that, in a National Disaster, the Commonwealth picks up 75% of the replacement costs; any affected state 25%.
Queensland decided not to insure its transport, electricity, telecom etc infrastructure (over $30mill pa was mentioned) but put the money into a fund to be used when needed.
3. States do insure community infrastructure like schools, hospitals etc.
G’day, peeples.
I do wish Labor would keep her feet out her collective mouths!
“To lose one’s way once, may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose it twice looks like carelessness.”
blackdog,
The scenario I favour is RAbbot spilled post the next house sitting, any of the other leaders being installed as dispensible, but is likely to be Morrison, with a nearer to an election spill with Turnbull being begged to lead the coalition into the next election.
MSN poll shows 50:50 response to question of whether Julian Assange deserves an apology from Julia. Given the much discussed MSN bias, probably means he has lost a lot of support over these last few weeks…
Theres your birthday present from me Frank!
[Say what you like about our media, just be grateful that we are not in the USA or UK]
Both the US and UK have a wider range of media outlets across the political spectrum (mildly left to the crazy right). Please name one media outlet in Australia which is not right of centre.
Mod Lib
Re the press in Aus and UK. The difference is that we have one national daily (Murdoch controlled) and most state dailies also Murdoch controlled, or if not Murdoch, then Fairfax. In the UK there are around 6 national daily’s ranging from crap like the Sun to informative papers like the Independent.
I grant you that we haven’t had a scandal like the News of the World, but perhaps it’s only time before we do, given the standard of the tabloids.
Can’t comment about other countries in generqal, having only ever read the NY Times, Chicago Tribune and the Seattle and LA papers when visiting the US – oh and USA Today, which was rubbish. The others were OK although a bit prolix (again generally) in their reporting for my liking. Some good opinion columnists though. I imagine it would be different if had visited Alabama or Mississippi.