The first Nielsen poll for the year suggests Labor’s morale recovery last week will be short-lived: according to GhostWhoVotes, it has the Coalition opening up a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is 32 per cent (exactly where Newspoll had it), with the Coalition on 46 per cent (two points higher) and the Greens on 12 per cent (two points lower). Again in common with Newspoll, it finds a majority of respondents nonetheless supporting a flood levy, of which 52 per cent approve and 44 per cent disapprove. Tony Abbott’s ratings are little changed: approval down one point to 46 per cent, disapproval up one to 49 per cent. Julia Gillard is down two points on approval to 52 per cent and up four on disapproval to 43 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 53-40 to 51-41. If Nielsen’s usual procedure was followed, the poll would have been conducted between Thursday and Saturday from a sample of 1400.
UPDATE: Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the New South Wales segment of the poll has Labor trailing on the primary vote 31 per cent to 48 per cent: this would be from a sample of about 450, with a margin of error of about 4.5 per cent. Nielsen pollster John Stirton suggests federal Labor might be suffering in NSW from the imminence of a train wreck state election, although the swings on these numbers are in line with the rest of the country. Coorey provides more evidence for the swing’s uniformity when he says Labor is doing poorly in the states that bedevilled it at the election: New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. The poll also finds opinion continuing to divide evenly over a price on carbon, which 46 per cent support and 44 per cent oppose. Sixty-five per cent say they approve of Julia Gillard’s handling of recent natural disasters, for all the good it has done her.
UPDATE 2: Crikey reports better news for Labor from Essential Research, with Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred to 50-50. Since Essential Research combines two separate weekly polling periods, this is a more significant move than it would be from another pollster. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 40 per cent, its best result since late October, while the Coalition is down two to 44 per cent. On each measure this is Labor’s best showing since the poll published on November 1.
Furthermore, the poll offers evidence of Tony Abbott taking a solid personal hit following the events of last week: his disapproval is up nine points since a month ago to 46 per cent and his approval is down four to 38 per cent. Julia Gillard has also gone backwards, down two on approval to 48 per cent and up five on disapproval to 41 per cent. While this is her worst disapproval rating yet from Essential, the approval is her second best since July: last month seemed an anomalously good result for her, and “don’t know” has reached a new low of 11 per cent. Gillard has also slightly widened her lead as preferred prime minister from 47-32 48-31. Crikey also reports the opening of a substantial gender gap, which has long been assumed but not always strongly backed by the data: Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead is a thumping 52-26 among women, but only 45-36 among men. Gillard’s net approval is almost even among men but plus 15 among women, while Abbott while is minus 12 among women and only slightly negative among men.
More worringly for Labor, the poll finds a substantial shift against the National Broadband Network since opinion was last gauged in September. Support is down eight points to 48 per cent, with opposition up from 18 per cent to 31 per cent. There is also very strong support for a permanent disaster relief fund: 63 per cent against only 29 per cent opposed.
UPDATE 3: Full Essential Research report here.
Mytwobob:
Thanks for sharing your experiences
[Space Kidette
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 8:11 pm | Permalink
Frank,
In the dim, dark recesses of my memory, I recall that the Democrats had a different method of voting their members, and was told it was the most democratic. Do you know what they did that differed from the Labor party.
]
Democrats Pre-selections were decided by a vote of the entire party membership – similar to how the Greens operate.
[Those who want to participate in internal ballots and enjoy the excitement of branch meetings can continue to do so by paying more for full membership. Which is basically what the election review proposes.]
Did you see my submission??
this is getting a tad surreal
Frank,
Thanks! 🙂
So can anyone vote for a Liberal Party candidate for preselection? If outside voting is so good for a party, I will support it when I see the Fibs doing it.
How do they get their candidates anyway, some sort of vote? Or do they brew them up in a black cauldron in the basement? 👿
Depending on the state, primaries in the US can be “open” (all voters may participate regardless of party registration), “closed” (only voters registered with the party may participate) or “semi-open” (voters may participate regardless of party registration, but only in one party’s primary or the other).
[So you weant the financial powerful to decide who gets to bne an ALP Candidate?
Cos As night follows day, that WILL happen.]
I thought it all ready does.
turn bull is the richest who is the poorest?
Probably wyatt roy with pocket money i guess
[William Bowe
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 8:13 pm | Permalink
It’s pretty clear to me that Labor needs more grassroots participation in its preselection processes, but isn’t getting it because of the slow death of mass political party membership (not just for Labor, and not just in Australia). What it needs is some sort of two-tier membership structure which qualifies members (or registered supporters, if you will) to participate in preselection ballots without incurring the expenses and inconveniences of full membership. Those who want to participate in internal ballots and enjoy the excitement of branch meetings can continue to do so by paying more for full membership. Which is basically what the election review proposes.
]
And that second teir of “Supporter” to me smacks of of back door Branch Stacking.
TSOP @6120,
1) Stephen Smith or 2)Simon Crean.
[So can anyone vote for a Liberal Party candidate for preselection?]
Ask Michael Johnstone
[Interesting question? I have a couple of people in mind.]
Share them. No wrong answers. 🙂
TSOP
Bowen, Combet.
[no, as in the corrupt way candidates are pre-selected.]
That’s just stupid. What’s wrong with putting candidates in competition with each other?
That’s far better than the current system which just favours party insiders.
[ What it needs is some sort of two-tier membership structure which qualifies members (or registered supporters, if you will) to participate in preselection ballots without incurring the expenses and inconveniences of full membership.]
Oh yeah thats gonna make people who pay the expenses and endure the “inconveniences”of full membership real happy Billbo. 😛
[What it needs is some sort of two-tier membership structure which qualifies members (or registered supporters, if you will) to participate in preselection ballots without incurring the expenses and inconveniences of full membership.]
And watch those numbers becoming very fluid during election periods as once their preferred candidate is pre-selected, those memberships lapse – and get replaced by a whole new set of “Supporters” just intime for the next pre-selection period – especially in those Lib held seats where Labor almost never has a chance of winning.
TSOP,
Further to my comment at 6159.
Both are cool calm and collected. Both are hard core and just as importantly realistic labor politicans.
[jenauthor
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 8:10 pm | Permalink
I have been incumaddio
Sounds painful Joe]
Yep . was horrible 🙂
Revolt in Arab World spreads to Iraq. Prof Cole “Informed Comment”
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
If the Iraqis are so pleased with Uncle Sam,why is there a massive wave of demonstrations in Iraq..calling for the sacking of corrupt officials,…at poor govt services and an end to the American presence.
Don’t expect to her about in The Oz
Similar question to the Labor leadership one: This time it’s the Libs and Abbott, Turnbull and Hockey have been taken out of the equation. Who should lead?
Victoria @6162,
both good choices.
[Thomas Paine
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 2:34 pm | Permalink
Unfortunately the fact that Gillard used Howes, Arbib and so on to plan herself into power …]
Same old. Same old, Thomas. And your supporting evidence is… ?
[ShowsOn
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 8:20 pm | Permalink
no, as in the corrupt way candidates are pre-selected.
That’s just stupid. What’s wrong with putting candidates in competition with each other?
That’s far better than the current system which just favours party insiders.
]
And let the great unwashed with an agenda to decide ??
Expect a bidding war amongst the candidates as they aim for the 2GB vote.
pebbs
Howie?
or Hyacinth?
TSOP @6169,
Moses. And he can lead them out of the country.
I like the 60% Rank & File & 29% Union bit – but that last 20% non party members screams open to abuse.
[And let the great unwashed with an agenda to decide ??]
Heaven forbid!
TSOP
I’m trying very hard not to be a partisan hack!, but I cannot think of anyone on the coalition side.
What are your thoughts with respect to both parties?
[And let the great unwashed with an agenda to decide ??]
What have you got against democracy? If you want your side to win, then you should campaign so they win, you know, like at a general election!
[Expect a bidding war amongst the candidates as they aim for the 2GB vote.]
How will that win a LABOR pre-selection?
Funny, you know. I thought there would have been a far more aggressive reaction here to my suggestion that there was room for Howes than that Labor needed to think about how to recover the votes of people like j_v!
Maybe the party really isn’t quite as smart as I give it credit for! 😉
[Similar question to the Labor leadership one: This time it’s the Libs and Abbott, Turnbull and Hockey have been taken out of the equation. Who should lead?]
JBishop is the only feasible option, and based on her performance in various portfolios, I can’t see her being an effective party leader.
[ALP supporters (actually anybody), I have a bit of a light question for you. Pretend both Gillard and Rudd disappeared. Out of the current members of the ALP caucus, whom would you want to be leader? Why?]
Combet probably. Seems reasonable and battle-hardened.
[TSOP @6120,
1) Stephen Smith or 2)Simon Crean.]
Stephen Smith (now) for me. He appears to have a great deal of integrity, and can put peoplein their place without getting agitated. Can fire up when so moved in QT.
Bowen is a great up and comer …. he is articulate and direct and seems to have a real conscience. In both portfolios to date, he has achieved a lot with quiet persistence. And he can fire up in QT.
[Frank
And let the great unwashed with an agenda to decide ??]
Are not the great unwashed the citizens of australia and in a democracy the majority rules?
Doyley
I really like Crean and Smith as well.
[I’m trying very hard not to be a partisan hack!, but I cannot think of anyone on the coalition side.]
That’s fair enough. I kinda made it harder by excluding Hockey.
[Maybe the party really isn’t quite as smart as I give it credit for!]
Er what? Go back over your last weeks bile. 😛
[Oh, you mean like politicians occasionally voting their conscience instead of always following the party line, even when it is wrong? Heaven forbid!]
No, more like voting according to whatever big pharma, big oil, big defence industry, big finance, big health, big pro-gun lobby, big religion lobby etc etc etc tell them to.
[I’m trying very hard not to be a partisan hack!, but I cannot think of anyone on the coalition side.]
As you know, I do hold the Member for Indi in the highest regard.
[6178
ShowsOn
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 8:26 pm | Permalink
And let the great unwashed with an agenda to decide ??
What have you got against democracy? If you want your side to win, then you should campaign so they win, you know, like at a general election!
Expect a bidding war amongst the candidates as they aim for the 2GB vote.
How will that win a LABOR pre-selection?
]
So you are happy for Liberal voters saying that they are “LAbor Supporters” do decide who gets pre-selected then ??
BK
with the member for Higgins a close second 😉
I see no gives a rats about all the as. stuff tonight.
I said this would happen that AS is not a big issue but was told otherwise.
I must not just get it
[Joe6pack
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 8:28 pm | Permalink
Frank
And let the great unwashed with an agenda to decide ??
Are not the great unwashed the citizens of australia and in a democracy the majority rules?
]
The Great Unwashed can make their decision at an Election.
I don’t want those with an agenda influencing a party’s candidate.
[BK
with the member for Higgins a close second]
You said it vic!
TSOP
The coalition have real problems with leadership. Abbott is probably the best of a very bad bunch in some ways.
BK
[As you know, I do hold the Member for Indi in the highest regard.]
We know, we know. We can hear your beating heart.
Puff
I’m stuck for words.
pevan14
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 2:57 pm | Permalink
You’ve got the proof…….Gillard fought a disasterous election campaign, and she ticked off on the stuff ups – Real Julia, Climate Change Assembly etc.
I hope she learns from all that, and does better next time,…]
No problem with any of that, Evan. Nor with you even though you’ve never hidden your Rudd loyalty. Actually those clangers provide at least circumstantial evidence that she WASN’T prepared either for the coupe or for becoming PM then.
She won’t run away from that responsibility. And as you’ve noted, she’s looked a lot better since she’s gone with her instincts.
[Similar question to the Labor leadership one: This time it’s the Libs and Abbott, Turnbull and Hockey have been taken out of the equation. Who should lead?]
If one must, Julie Bishop.
Frank Calabrese
Tell me the battler worker in this parliament?
Who went from ditch digger to mp.?
And what’s to stop a bunch of Liberal voters registering as “ALP Supporters” to help pre-select a member of the ALP Right – especially if the other candidate is a member of the ALP Left ??
You lot seriously want that ?? Especially in tightly contested marginal seats.