Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition

The first Nielsen poll for the year suggests Labor’s morale recovery last week will be short-lived: according to GhostWhoVotes, it has the Coalition opening up a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is 32 per cent (exactly where Newspoll had it), with the Coalition on 46 per cent (two points higher) and the Greens on 12 per cent (two points lower). Again in common with Newspoll, it finds a majority of respondents nonetheless supporting a flood levy, of which 52 per cent approve and 44 per cent disapprove. Tony Abbott’s ratings are little changed: approval down one point to 46 per cent, disapproval up one to 49 per cent. Julia Gillard is down two points on approval to 52 per cent and up four on disapproval to 43 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 53-40 to 51-41. If Nielsen’s usual procedure was followed, the poll would have been conducted between Thursday and Saturday from a sample of 1400.

UPDATE: Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the New South Wales segment of the poll has Labor trailing on the primary vote 31 per cent to 48 per cent: this would be from a sample of about 450, with a margin of error of about 4.5 per cent. Nielsen pollster John Stirton suggests federal Labor might be suffering in NSW from the imminence of a train wreck state election, although the swings on these numbers are in line with the rest of the country. Coorey provides more evidence for the swing’s uniformity when he says Labor is doing poorly in the states that bedevilled it at the election: New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. The poll also finds opinion continuing to divide evenly over a price on carbon, which 46 per cent support and 44 per cent oppose. Sixty-five per cent say they approve of Julia Gillard’s handling of recent natural disasters, for all the good it has done her.

UPDATE 2: Crikey reports better news for Labor from Essential Research, with Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred to 50-50. Since Essential Research combines two separate weekly polling periods, this is a more significant move than it would be from another pollster. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 40 per cent, its best result since late October, while the Coalition is down two to 44 per cent. On each measure this is Labor’s best showing since the poll published on November 1.

Furthermore, the poll offers evidence of Tony Abbott taking a solid personal hit following the events of last week: his disapproval is up nine points since a month ago to 46 per cent and his approval is down four to 38 per cent. Julia Gillard has also gone backwards, down two on approval to 48 per cent and up five on disapproval to 41 per cent. While this is her worst disapproval rating yet from Essential, the approval is her second best since July: last month seemed an anomalously good result for her, and “don’t know” has reached a new low of 11 per cent. Gillard has also slightly widened her lead as preferred prime minister from 47-32 48-31. Crikey also reports the opening of a substantial gender gap, which has long been assumed but not always strongly backed by the data: Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead is a thumping 52-26 among women, but only 45-36 among men. Gillard’s net approval is almost even among men but plus 15 among women, while Abbott while is minus 12 among women and only slightly negative among men.

More worringly for Labor, the poll finds a substantial shift against the National Broadband Network since opinion was last gauged in September. Support is down eight points to 48 per cent, with opposition up from 18 per cent to 31 per cent. There is also very strong support for a permanent disaster relief fund: 63 per cent against only 29 per cent opposed.

UPDATE 3: Full Essential Research report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,529 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Liberal preselection tends to be formally quite democratic – in WA for example, 20 per cent of delegates in preselections are from state council and the rest are from various local branch organisations. However, various safety valves are in place to make their systems not so different from Labor’s. Candidates who win the local vote in WA can be knocked back by the state council, which has twice done so in order to save Dennis Jensen in Tangney. When Malcolm Turnbull was leader, he and Barry O’Farrell instituted “emergency powers” to hand pick candidates in sensitive NSW seats. When the defeat of Senator Marise Payne by Scot McDonald looked like it was going to upset the factional balance, a process to vet candidates on grounds of character or ethics was used and abused (by Bill Heffernan at the instigation of John Howard) to overturn the result.

    Scott Morrison became member for Cook after the state executive passed a resolution disqualifying the original winner Michael Towke. This was sold at the time as a move against the Right faction branch stacking operations which had secured Towke victory, but others claim it was because Towke was of Lebanese heritage and the party didn’t want him running in Cronulla.

  3. Bile , ruawake?

    I spent a couple of days attacking Morrison , et al. I spent a few hours attacking Bowen’s statement that he would send back the poor little kid to CI, as did just about everyone else with any heart outside the rusted ons. I praised Bowen for managing to at least get his return up next week, rather than in a month or so as he had originally hinted.

    Geeze, mate. That ain’t “bile”. If you imagine that anything that Labor does has to be above question just because Labor does it then you much dumber than I think you are too.

  4. I HONESTLY cannot come up with anyone on the Liberal side I can seriously entertain as an alternative PM.

    Bishop is incompetent. The rest if the front bench is incompetent. MT is really their only sensible option, and he has a lot of baggage.

    Hockey Morrison and Abbott are all confirmed liars (this week, anyway — media will expunge all records of same next week, I am sure). Robb is an inarticulate basket-case. The others are all either too old, or too inexperienced.

  5. [Those who want to participate in internal ballots and enjoy the excitement of branch meetings can continue to do so by paying more for full membership]

    Hilarious William hilarious – largely agreeing with all you say the only risk is frank and I would actually love branch meetings so much we might become labor light. The union members would almost certainly stay full members. Could be worked if there was a spirit.

    And I’m going to be unpopular here but I think one of the labor movements weaknesses has been a lack of industrial action. Since hawkie and the accord 9/10 unions have been weak as p&$s 90% of the time. This is great for the political arm, but largely has been a failure for the labor movement. Not sure it will work but Paul howse’s attack on rio might help engage with frank’s bogans. Might not and is risky but if I were him it is worth a bloo£> good shot. If he could find a way to represent / help vunerable sole and small contractors as well it would be genius.

  12. Ode to BK
    by PTMD.

    In the night, as sight dims
    Senses heighten
    To the faintest sign,
    Oh Sophie, Oh Sophie
    Do you hear my heart?
    For you, only you, be mine.

  13. [ruawake
    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 8:40 pm | Permalink

    Who went from ditch digger to mp.?

    Do you really want a list of Labor MPs who started in blue collar jobs?]

    In the current crop yes please.
    Maybe the ministers for starters

  16. isn’t getting it because of the slow death of mass political party membership (not just for Labor, and not just in Australia).

    What are the approx party membership Numbers Australia wide –

    Labor –
    Libs –
    Nats –
    Green –

    I tried finding this earlier this week unsuccessfully.

  17. I actually like Combet and Shorten as next cabs off the rank after Smith & Bowen.

    Again, both are articulate and achievers. I don’t believe this ‘factional’ rubbish has any weight in this matter.

  20. Jsp
    [Do you really want a list of Labor MPs who started in blue collar jobs?
    In the current crop yes please.]
    Does that include shelf-stacker while at uni?

  21. WeWantPaul,

    From my experience most self employed tradies/contractors are not interested in unions. They do not like OH & S oversight as they believe it involves too much time and is too restrictive.

    This has been the main cause, I think, of a great deal of the problems regarding poor and, in many cases, worsening building standards in this country.

    Just have a look at the standards involved in the insulation scheme. They had the OH &S standards in place but many refused to follow them. Have a look at the rising complaints against construction work for lack of standrads and workmanship.

    Contractors don’t want anyone over their shoulders and bugger government.

  24. TSOP

    Therein lies the rub, he is currently tainted by role in Rudd’s removal and factional politics. That is the baggage he is carrying at present. Apart from that, he fits the bill in terms of being charasmatic and relatively young.

    With respect to Bishop and Morrison; it just would not work. But hey, stranger things have happened. A week is a long time in politics.

  27. From the ALP Review:

    [Recommendation 26: That the Party nationally implement a tiered system
    of Party primaries for the selection of candidates. That this commence in
    open and non-held lower house seats and be considered for held seats in
    the future. That a system with three weighted components be established
    comprising a 60 per cent component drawn from local Party members,
    20 per cent from members participating from affiliated trade unions, and
    20 per cent from registered Labor supporters in the community. That
    safeguards to prevent any corruption of this system be put in place such as:
     the principle of one vote, one value be enshrined to ensure that double or
    triple-voting not occur
     there be minimum participation requirements in the union and community
    components of a primary to ensure that low participation does not distort
    results
     that all participants be enrolled to vote for a minimum of three months
    and have a verifiable address within the electorate.]

    http://campaigniq.communityengine.com/download/files/26848/1315283/review2010.pdf

    That last point can be easily abused as all it takes is for candidates to canvas for supporters etc in their Electorate – especially those with a vested interest.

  30. William

    full membership of the Labor party is neither expensive or onerous.

    You can pay as little as about $30 (yes, it’s meant to be more according to income, but the party would rather you lied about your income and joined than were honest and didn’t!) and attend (at the most) two branch meetings in your entire existence.

    I know of old branch members here who haven’t been to branch meetings in twenty years and are still wheeled out to vote at pre selections.

    my say

    feeling a bit chuffed about your silent protest against One Nation.

    I organised one of the first ever anti Hanson rallies and the silent protest was my idea. I knew that a couple of other demos had adopted the idea but didn’t realise it had got as far as Tassie!

  32. [Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 8:47 pm | Permalink

    Jsp

    Do you really want a list of Labor MPs who started in blue collar jobs?
    In the current crop yes please.

    Does that include shelf-stacker while at uni?]
    That will probably be in the resumes of the chosen ones, but
    Who in the current parliament did a’ blue collar job” for say 8 years before taking a different path?
    mike Kelly excluded military folk exempt>

  33. TSOP:

    I can’t see Morrison continuing in his current portfolio after what’s transpired this week. That said, there’s no reason why Tone couldn’t do a re-shuffle and we see him notionally demoted for a bit to ride out the controversy only to come back in a couple of years.

  35. Joe6pack@6199

    Frank Calabrese

    Tell me the battler worker in this parliament?
    Who went from ditch digger to mp.?

    Dick Adam from Tassie- as I said the other day. (He was in the BIG chair
    as acting Speaker)

    Illiteracy until an adult AND taught himself to read and write.

  36. [I like him for that position. Though I think it will be Milne. SHY will be gunning like crazy for Deputy Leadership though.]

    I agree I think it will be Milne and SHY is certainly full of ambition (among other things).

  39. I missed it earlier as the elderly person I care for is in hospital with pneumonia (no fun when you are two months short of 94 years old) and I was visiting.

    I see Twiggy Forrest has been disqualified as a director. ASIC, well done.

    I am, of course, going off to cry a few tears for dear Twiggy.

  40. [6230

    zoomster

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 8:52 pm | Permalink

    William

    full membership of the Labor party is neither expensive or onerous.

    You can pay as little as about $30 (yes, it’s meant to be more according to income, but the party would rather you lied about your income and joined than were honest and didn’t!) and attend (at the most) two branch meetings in your entire existence.

    I know of old branch members here who haven’t been to branch meetings in twenty years and are still wheeled out to vote at pre selections.
    ]

    If Bilbo REALLY wanted to know about about the internal workings of the ALP – he can go no further than his Faculty Lounge 🙂

  41. [I can’t see Morrison continuing in his current portfolio after what’s transpired this week. That said, there’s no reason why Tone couldn’t do a re-shuffle and we see him notionally demoted for a bit to ride out the controversy only to come back in a couple of years.]

    Morrison would be getting nothing but pats on the back in that mob.

  42. Union is doing the wrong job if it is over their shoulder – I presume you mean unions over the shoulder of shonky contractors. There is a natural conflict there but my focus is on sole traders, husband and wife Inc and very small partnerships – to help them not sit over their shoulders. They are incredibly vulnerable.

  44. [I can’t see Morrison continuing in his current portfolio after what’s transpired this week. That said, there’s no reason why Tone couldn’t do a re-shuffle and we see him notionally demoted for a bit to ride out the controversy only to come back in a couple of years.]

    I agree. In fact, it wouldn’t hurt for Johnny H to have a chat with him to explain why this does not necessarily mean his career is over by a long shot…

  46. [Ludlam is far far more impressive than the Goth.]

    She’s hideous isn’t she? Her voice is like nails on a blackboard. They should play endless repeating cycles of her and Milne speaking in Parliament to keep the peace at train stations and the like. I suspect Teh Yoof are becoming quite fond of Mozart.

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