Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition

The first Nielsen poll for the year suggests Labor’s morale recovery last week will be short-lived: according to GhostWhoVotes, it has the Coalition opening up a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is 32 per cent (exactly where Newspoll had it), with the Coalition on 46 per cent (two points higher) and the Greens on 12 per cent (two points lower). Again in common with Newspoll, it finds a majority of respondents nonetheless supporting a flood levy, of which 52 per cent approve and 44 per cent disapprove. Tony Abbott’s ratings are little changed: approval down one point to 46 per cent, disapproval up one to 49 per cent. Julia Gillard is down two points on approval to 52 per cent and up four on disapproval to 43 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 53-40 to 51-41. If Nielsen’s usual procedure was followed, the poll would have been conducted between Thursday and Saturday from a sample of 1400.

UPDATE: Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the New South Wales segment of the poll has Labor trailing on the primary vote 31 per cent to 48 per cent: this would be from a sample of about 450, with a margin of error of about 4.5 per cent. Nielsen pollster John Stirton suggests federal Labor might be suffering in NSW from the imminence of a train wreck state election, although the swings on these numbers are in line with the rest of the country. Coorey provides more evidence for the swing’s uniformity when he says Labor is doing poorly in the states that bedevilled it at the election: New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. The poll also finds opinion continuing to divide evenly over a price on carbon, which 46 per cent support and 44 per cent oppose. Sixty-five per cent say they approve of Julia Gillard’s handling of recent natural disasters, for all the good it has done her.

UPDATE 2: Crikey reports better news for Labor from Essential Research, with Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred to 50-50. Since Essential Research combines two separate weekly polling periods, this is a more significant move than it would be from another pollster. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 40 per cent, its best result since late October, while the Coalition is down two to 44 per cent. On each measure this is Labor’s best showing since the poll published on November 1.

Furthermore, the poll offers evidence of Tony Abbott taking a solid personal hit following the events of last week: his disapproval is up nine points since a month ago to 46 per cent and his approval is down four to 38 per cent. Julia Gillard has also gone backwards, down two on approval to 48 per cent and up five on disapproval to 41 per cent. While this is her worst disapproval rating yet from Essential, the approval is her second best since July: last month seemed an anomalously good result for her, and “don’t know” has reached a new low of 11 per cent. Gillard has also slightly widened her lead as preferred prime minister from 47-32 48-31. Crikey also reports the opening of a substantial gender gap, which has long been assumed but not always strongly backed by the data: Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead is a thumping 52-26 among women, but only 45-36 among men. Gillard’s net approval is almost even among men but plus 15 among women, while Abbott while is minus 12 among women and only slightly negative among men.

More worringly for Labor, the poll finds a substantial shift against the National Broadband Network since opinion was last gauged in September. Support is down eight points to 48 per cent, with opposition up from 18 per cent to 31 per cent. There is also very strong support for a permanent disaster relief fund: 63 per cent against only 29 per cent opposed.

UPDATE 3: Full Essential Research report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,529 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. The Finnigans

    I have been listening to the Killers tonight. They did a live performance on Letterman a couple of years ago with an orchestra. The song is epic. It is about the singer’s parents and his mother who was suffering with a terminal illness. She passed away months after this performance.
    Nothing like the Platters. But very worthwhile.

    “A Dustland Fairytale”

    [The Dustland Fairytale beginning
    With just another white trash county kiss in ’61.
    Long brown hair, and foolish eyes.
    He’d look just like you’d want him to
    Some kind of slick chrome American prince.

    Blue Jean serenade
    Moon River what’d you do to me
    I don’t believe you.

    Saw Cinderella in a party dress, she was looking for a nightgown.
    I saw the devil wrapping up his hands, he’s getting ready for the showdown.
    I saw the minute that I turned away, I got my money on a pawn tonight.

    Change came in disguise of revelation, set his soul on fire.
    She said she always knew he’d come around.
    And the decades disappear
    Like sinking ships but we persevere.
    God gives us hope but we still fear what we don’t know.

    Your mind is poisoned.
    Castles in the sky sit stranded, vandalized.
    The drawbridge is closing.

    Saw Cinderella in a party dress, she was looking for a nightgown.
    I saw the devil wrapping up his hands, he’s getting ready for the showdown.
    I saw the ending when they turned the page, I threw my money and I ran away.
    Sent to the valley of the great divide
    Out where the dreams all hide.
    Out where the wind don’t blow,
    Out here the good girls die.
    And the sky won’t snow
    Out here the bird don’t sing
    Out here the field don’t blow
    Out here the bell don’t ring
    Out hear the bell don’t ring
    Out here the good girls die
    Now Cinderella don’t you go to sleep, it’s such a bitter form of refuge.
    Why don’t you know the kingdoms under siege and everybody needs you.
    Is there still magic in the midnight sun, or did you leave it back in ’61?
    In the cadence of a young man’s eyes.
    Out where the dreams all hide]

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0l5DU0WXC0&annotation_id=annotation_29221&feature=iv

  3. [So you are happy for Liberal voters saying that they are “LAbor Supporters” do decide who gets pre-selected then ??]
    LOL! You’re a conspiracy theorist.

    Yeah a heap of Liberals are really going to bother themselves with a Labor pre-selection, when Australians hate voting!

  4. [Morrison would be getting nothing but pats on the back in that mob.]

    I doubt it, Adam. Some serious southern LP funders who would be getting very toey at present, and some political players who would be thinking “christ what is Morrison doing to my own numbers”. Still, maybe they reckon they can make it all up from the WA miners.

  5. [Joe6pack@6199

    Frank Calabrese

    Tell me the battler worker in this parliament?
    Who went from ditch digger to mp.?

    Dick Adam from Tassie- as I said the other day. (He was in the BIG chair
    as acting Speaker)

    Illiteracy until an adult AND taught himself to read and write.]

    Good on him Dave, i am not disrespecting anyone but asking a ? about our federal parliament.
    where people here are saying that any joe blow can win pre-selection to any party and i am saying now that it is bullshit.
    Maybe back in the day but now money talks.

  8. WeWantPaul,

    Should have made myself clearer.

    Yes over the shoulders of the shonks.

    However, the number of shonks is steadily on the rise. A significant minority I would think

  9. Good on him Dave, i am not disrespecting anyone but asking a ? about our federal parliament.

    Joe, Dick IS in the National Parliament – he is from the apple Island and a Federal MP..

  12. Dave
    Good on him Dave, i am not disrespecting anyone but asking a ? about our federal parliament.

    Joe, Dick IS in the National Parliament – he is from the apple Island and a Federal MP..

    Sorry

  14. [ have been listening to the Killers tonight. They did a live performance on Letterman a couple of years ago with an orchestra. The song is epic. It is about the singer’s parents and his mother who was suffering with a terminal illness. She passed away months after this performance.
    Nothing like the Platters. But very worthwhile.

    “A Dustland Fairytale”]

    Victoria, that is a sensational song. many thanks for that. i will learn it.

  15. I’m sure you are right both industrial law and the unions should shoot at the head (company and then down) jailing directors on the way – would sharpen up things – rapidly. Labor govt should just retask refocus the building star chamber Howard setup in this way – don’t remove any current powers etc but totally retask – might be going on in background we wouldn’t necessarily know.

  17. JSP

    i am not disrespecting anyone but asking a ? about our federal parliament.

    Try Graham Edwards now retired Federal Labor MP –

    worked for five years as a railway fireman before joining the Australian Regular Army in 1968. He was sent to Vietnam, where he was a member of the assault pioneer platoon of 7th Battalion, Royal Australian Regiment.

    On 12 May 1970, near Route 326, between Tam Phuoc and Long My, Edwards’s platoon moved into an area where mines had been laid. An M16 mine exploded wounding three men; both Edwards’s legs had to be amputated.

    He did not let his disability get the better of him. Years later he recalled a visit to the Vietnam Veterans’ Memorial in Canberra: “It was a humbling yet balancing experience particularly when you know that but for the Grace of God and a bit of luck your name could well be up there with the others who lost their lives in that unfortunate war.”

    When he returned to civilian life, veterans’ welfare became a vital cause for him and he also moved into public affairs and politics. In 1983 he was elected as a Labor member to the Western Australian Legislative Council. After 14 years in state parliament, he entered federal parliament in 1998, being elected to the House of Representatives for the seat of Cowan, in Western Australia.

    Edwards has held ministerial appointments and served on parliamentary committees. He is also a member of the Australian Republican Movement, and maintains a strong and active involvement in defence, disability services, and veterans’ issues.

    http://www.awm.gov.au/exhibitions/fiftyaustralians/16.asp

  19. Bowen and Shorten are my choices, leaning towards Shorten. Combet is good but doesn’t have a very good public presentation – too dour. All are solid parliamentary performers.

  20. [6253

    ShowsOn

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 9:01 pm | Permalink

    So you are happy for Liberal voters saying that they are “LAbor Supporters” do decide who gets pre-selected then ??

    LOL! You’re a conspiracy theorist.

    Yeah a heap of Liberals are really going to bother themselves with a Labor pre-selection, when Australians hate voting!
    ]

    Trust me – it can and will happen – espcially when there is no requirement to declare your political affiliations other than “you support the ideals of the ALP”.

    All it needs is for a well organinsed liberal leaning lobby group to “encourage” eligible” voters to sign up and help sabotage the pre-selection of an ALP Candidate who is standing on an agenda which they oppose.

  23. [there is no-one under 45 who has a blue collar background

    therin , as i contended, is one of the probs

    regain the base and the rest follow]

    Isn’t there an electrician from Melbourne?

  33. THE REDS for the trophy this year
    The big 5 for qld
    Soccer premiers–win
    Union premiers–win
    leauge premiers–win
    afl—-win
    toad races —-win

  35. [Joe, Dick IS in the National Parliament – he is from the apple Island and a Federal MP..
    6260]

    He is the member for lyons and a harder working and down to earth person one is yet to meet in parliment, goes out for a walk every day when he is in his office and that not very often as he is alwasy in his electorate, when he is in his office pops his head in to all the businesses a long the country town main street for a chat.
    we do worry about him though as he is very over weight, a great man.

  39. jsp

    umm

    the CC mariners gunna spank your ass

    as for the reds well say no more

    league ha, last time you dudes won was when the salary cap was a rort

    afl well only cream puffs play so no comment

    toad races- well who cares, our cockroaches would win it easily

  45. Gus:

    How does having blue-collar workers dominating Caucus deliver a more effective government? I’m sorry, but that to me smacks of the sorts of zombie Liberal arguments about small business people being the true arbiters of effective government policy.

    I ain’t buying.

  47. fess

    damn me for hiliting a basic shift in alp representation

    my purpose was to hilight where a possible disconnect may exist

    I can take the arrows, but not the innuendo

    OK

  48. [Gusface

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    fess

    damn me for hiliting a basic shift in alp representation

    my purpose was to hilight where a possible disconnect may exist

    I can take the arrows, but not the innuendo

    OK
    ]
    and plays right into the Fibs – Unions – BOO Meme.

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