The first Nielsen poll for the year suggests Labor’s morale recovery last week will be short-lived: according to GhostWhoVotes, it has the Coalition opening up a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is 32 per cent (exactly where Newspoll had it), with the Coalition on 46 per cent (two points higher) and the Greens on 12 per cent (two points lower). Again in common with Newspoll, it finds a majority of respondents nonetheless supporting a flood levy, of which 52 per cent approve and 44 per cent disapprove. Tony Abbott’s ratings are little changed: approval down one point to 46 per cent, disapproval up one to 49 per cent. Julia Gillard is down two points on approval to 52 per cent and up four on disapproval to 43 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 53-40 to 51-41. If Nielsen’s usual procedure was followed, the poll would have been conducted between Thursday and Saturday from a sample of 1400.
UPDATE: Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the New South Wales segment of the poll has Labor trailing on the primary vote 31 per cent to 48 per cent: this would be from a sample of about 450, with a margin of error of about 4.5 per cent. Nielsen pollster John Stirton suggests federal Labor might be suffering in NSW from the imminence of a train wreck state election, although the swings on these numbers are in line with the rest of the country. Coorey provides more evidence for the swing’s uniformity when he says Labor is doing poorly in the states that bedevilled it at the election: New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. The poll also finds opinion continuing to divide evenly over a price on carbon, which 46 per cent support and 44 per cent oppose. Sixty-five per cent say they approve of Julia Gillard’s handling of recent natural disasters, for all the good it has done her.
UPDATE 2: Crikey reports better news for Labor from Essential Research, with Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred to 50-50. Since Essential Research combines two separate weekly polling periods, this is a more significant move than it would be from another pollster. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 40 per cent, its best result since late October, while the Coalition is down two to 44 per cent. On each measure this is Labor’s best showing since the poll published on November 1.
Furthermore, the poll offers evidence of Tony Abbott taking a solid personal hit following the events of last week: his disapproval is up nine points since a month ago to 46 per cent and his approval is down four to 38 per cent. Julia Gillard has also gone backwards, down two on approval to 48 per cent and up five on disapproval to 41 per cent. While this is her worst disapproval rating yet from Essential, the approval is her second best since July: last month seemed an anomalously good result for her, and don’t know has reached a new low of 11 per cent. Gillard has also slightly widened her lead as preferred prime minister from 47-32 48-31. Crikey also reports the opening of a substantial gender gap, which has long been assumed but not always strongly backed by the data: Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead is a thumping 52-26 among women, but only 45-36 among men. Gillard’s net approval is almost even among men but plus 15 among women, while Abbott while is minus 12 among women and only slightly negative among men.
More worringly for Labor, the poll finds a substantial shift against the National Broadband Network since opinion was last gauged in September. Support is down eight points to 48 per cent, with opposition up from 18 per cent to 31 per cent. There is also very strong support for a permanent disaster relief fund: 63 per cent against only 29 per cent opposed.
UPDATE 3: Full Essential Research report here.
The Finnigans
I have been listening to the Killers tonight. They did a live performance on Letterman a couple of years ago with an orchestra. The song is epic. It is about the singer’s parents and his mother who was suffering with a terminal illness. She passed away months after this performance.
Nothing like the Platters. But very worthwhile.
“A Dustland Fairytale”
[The Dustland Fairytale beginning
With just another white trash county kiss in ’61.
Long brown hair, and foolish eyes.
He’d look just like you’d want him to
Some kind of slick chrome American prince.
Blue Jean serenade
Moon River what’d you do to me
I don’t believe you.
Saw Cinderella in a party dress, she was looking for a nightgown.
I saw the devil wrapping up his hands, he’s getting ready for the showdown.
I saw the minute that I turned away, I got my money on a pawn tonight.
Change came in disguise of revelation, set his soul on fire.
She said she always knew he’d come around.
And the decades disappear
Like sinking ships but we persevere.
God gives us hope but we still fear what we don’t know.
Your mind is poisoned.
Castles in the sky sit stranded, vandalized.
The drawbridge is closing.
Saw Cinderella in a party dress, she was looking for a nightgown.
I saw the devil wrapping up his hands, he’s getting ready for the showdown.
I saw the ending when they turned the page, I threw my money and I ran away.
Sent to the valley of the great divide
Out where the dreams all hide.
Out where the wind don’t blow,
Out here the good girls die.
And the sky won’t snow
Out here the bird don’t sing
Out here the field don’t blow
Out here the bell don’t ring
Out hear the bell don’t ring
Out here the good girls die
Now Cinderella don’t you go to sleep, it’s such a bitter form of refuge.
Why don’t you know the kingdoms under siege and everybody needs you.
Is there still magic in the midnight sun, or did you leave it back in ’61?
In the cadence of a young man’s eyes.
Out where the dreams all hide]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0l5DU0WXC0&annotation_id=annotation_29221&feature=iv
finns
she dont even talk to her mumma
not that it worries me 🙂
[So you are happy for Liberal voters saying that they are “LAbor Supporters” do decide who gets pre-selected then ??]
LOL! You’re a conspiracy theorist.
Yeah a heap of Liberals are really going to bother themselves with a Labor pre-selection, when Australians hate voting!
[Morrison would be getting nothing but pats on the back in that mob.]
I doubt it, Adam. Some serious southern LP funders who would be getting very toey at present, and some political players who would be thinking “christ what is Morrison doing to my own numbers”. Still, maybe they reckon they can make it all up from the WA miners.
[Joe6pack@6199
Frank Calabrese
Tell me the battler worker in this parliament?
Who went from ditch digger to mp.?
Dick Adam from Tassie- as I said the other day. (He was in the BIG chair
as acting Speaker)
Illiteracy until an adult AND taught himself to read and write.]
Good on him Dave, i am not disrespecting anyone but asking a ? about our federal parliament.
where people here are saying that any joe blow can win pre-selection to any party and i am saying now that it is bullshit.
Maybe back in the day but now money talks.
Sydney Vs Melbourne in Super15 Rugby 36-0. Or is it Ping Pong?
[I liked Kerry Nettle but alas she’s now gone.]
Me too…
🙁
WeWantPaul,
Should have made myself clearer.
Yes over the shoulders of the shonks.
However, the number of shonks is steadily on the rise. A significant minority I would think
Joe, Dick IS in the National Parliament – he is from the apple Island and a Federal MP..
Ru
so
there is no-one under 45 who has a blue collar background
therin , as i contended, is one of the probs
regain the base and the rest follow
Essendon 39, Lions 0
Carn the Bombers! Do it for me, Lindsay T Joan K and Bill Kelty! 😉
Dave
Good on him Dave, i am not disrespecting anyone but asking a ? about our federal parliament.
Joe, Dick IS in the National Parliament – he is from the apple Island and a Federal MP..
Sorry
finns
on abc radio today they had someone say the tahs will win
i decided there and then to NOT follow the rugger
Unless the tahs actually make the final
🙁
[ have been listening to the Killers tonight. They did a live performance on Letterman a couple of years ago with an orchestra. The song is epic. It is about the singer’s parents and his mother who was suffering with a terminal illness. She passed away months after this performance.
Nothing like the Platters. But very worthwhile.
“A Dustland Fairytale”]
Victoria, that is a sensational song. many thanks for that. i will learn it.
I’m sure you are right both industrial law and the unions should shoot at the head (company and then down) jailing directors on the way – would sharpen up things – rapidly. Labor govt should just retask refocus the building star chamber Howard setup in this way – don’t remove any current powers etc but totally retask – might be going on in background we wouldn’t necessarily know.
Oh, and vis a vis the Bombers, I should have added, Geoff Eames, the Chief Justice of Nauru!
JSP
Try Graham Edwards now retired Federal Labor MP –
worked for five years as a railway fireman before joining the Australian Regular Army in 1968. He was sent to Vietnam, where he was a member of the assault pioneer platoon of 7th Battalion, Royal Australian Regiment.
On 12 May 1970, near Route 326, between Tam Phuoc and Long My, Edwards’s platoon moved into an area where mines had been laid. An M16 mine exploded wounding three men; both Edwards’s legs had to be amputated.
He did not let his disability get the better of him. Years later he recalled a visit to the Vietnam Veterans’ Memorial in Canberra: “It was a humbling yet balancing experience particularly when you know that but for the Grace of God and a bit of luck your name could well be up there with the others who lost their lives in that unfortunate war.”
When he returned to civilian life, veterans’ welfare became a vital cause for him and he also moved into public affairs and politics. In 1983 he was elected as a Labor member to the Western Australian Legislative Council. After 14 years in state parliament, he entered federal parliament in 1998, being elected to the House of Representatives for the seat of Cowan, in Western Australia.
Edwards has held ministerial appointments and served on parliamentary committees. He is also a member of the Australian Republican Movement, and maintains a strong and active involvement in defence, disability services, and veterans’ issues.
http://www.awm.gov.au/exhibitions/fiftyaustralians/16.asp
[Ru
so
there is no-one under 45 who has a blue collar background]
I copyright that question:)
Bowen and Shorten are my choices, leaning towards Shorten. Combet is good but doesn’t have a very good public presentation – too dour. All are solid parliamentary performers.
[6253
ShowsOn
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 9:01 pm | Permalink
So you are happy for Liberal voters saying that they are “LAbor Supporters” do decide who gets pre-selected then ??
LOL! You’re a conspiracy theorist.
Yeah a heap of Liberals are really going to bother themselves with a Labor pre-selection, when Australians hate voting!
]
Trust me – it can and will happen – espcially when there is no requirement to declare your political affiliations other than “you support the ideals of the ALP”.
All it needs is for a well organinsed liberal leaning lobby group to “encourage” eligible” voters to sign up and help sabotage the pre-selection of an ALP Candidate who is standing on an agenda which they oppose.
Gis, it’s now 43-0, definitely ping pong.
ooop, Gis = Gus
[there is no-one under 45 who has a blue collar background
therin , as i contended, is one of the probs
regain the base and the rest follow]
Isn’t there an electrician from Melbourne?
[I copyright that question]
50/50?
as regards the fibs
its closer to 95
as regards the greens
…………..
The Finnigans
It is a song that definitely grows on you.
[ooop, Gis = Gus]
damn you flippery one
now my codename is known to all
🙁
Mmm 51 – 1
How did we let em get away with a point I ask you!
[Isn’t there an electrician from Melbourne?]
Curtin?
Dave
6267
I have apologized for my ignorance re. GE. but my original ? still stands
[now my codename is known to all]
Solly mighty one, CIA called
[
Isn’t there an electrician from Melbourne?
]
Mike Symon, member for Deakin was a sparky
[there is no-one under 45 who has a blue collar background
therin , as i contended, is one of the probs]
Back in my day… get off my lawn, you punk kids! 😆
THE REDS for the trophy this year
The big 5 for qld
Soccer premiers–win
Union premiers–win
leauge premiers–win
afl—-win
toad races —-win
Finny,
You mean this cia?
https://www.cia.gov/kids-page/index.html
[Joe, Dick IS in the National Parliament – he is from the apple Island and a Federal MP..
6260]
He is the member for lyons and a harder working and down to earth person one is yet to meet in parliment, goes out for a walk every day when he is in his office and that not very often as he is alwasy in his electorate, when he is in his office pops his head in to all the businesses a long the country town main street for a chat.
we do worry about him though as he is very over weight, a great man.
pebbs
when i was a boy………………..
I had a blue collar job once. Was horrible at it. I am a thinker, not a doer.
(Yes, that means I am a lazy shit with no work ethic)
o it is Dick Adams, thought i better say that cannot see how any one could not have heard of him he has been there since hawke
jsp
umm
the CC mariners gunna spank your ass
as for the reds well say no more
league ha, last time you dudes won was when the salary cap was a rort
afl well only cream puffs play so no comment
toad races- well who cares, our cockroaches would win it easily
Gusface@6278
The is one from QLD
RIPOLL, Bernard (Bernie) Fernand
Member for Oxley (Qld)
Australian Labor Party
http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22handbook%2Fallmps%2F83E%22
[The big 5 for qld
Soccer premiers–win
Union premiers–win
leauge premiers–win
afl—-win
toad races —-win]
Holding the rest of the country by the balls politically – win
dave
Umm
he aint under 45
my criteria was simple
it is based on when the ahem numbers dudes got control
hint, think richo and co
Mick SYMON another sparkie as said above
http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A%22handbook%2Fallmps%2FHW8%22
dave
he aint under 45 as well
NB I actually did a bit of research afore I sent in my proposals
I am merely hiliting a trend
Gus:
How does having blue-collar workers dominating Caucus deliver a more effective government? I’m sorry, but that to me smacks of the sorts of zombie Liberal arguments about small business people being the true arbiters of effective government policy.
I ain’t buying.
From Conroy’s Article:
[In the words of another Labor MP, if the public can have a say in preselections, why would they join the ALP, questioning who would decide who is a Labor supporter and how would that be determined?]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/02/18/3143060.htm?section=justin
fess
damn me for hiliting a basic shift in alp representation
my purpose was to hilight where a possible disconnect may exist
I can take the arrows, but not the innuendo
OK
[Gusface
Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 9:32 pm | Permalink
fess
damn me for hiliting a basic shift in alp representation
my purpose was to hilight where a possible disconnect may exist
I can take the arrows, but not the innuendo
OK
]
and plays right into the Fibs – Unions – BOO Meme.
[Finny, You mean this cia?]
Damn you Puffy, Gus’s face has been finally exposed and it aint pretty!!!!
frank
?????????????