Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition

The first Nielsen poll for the year suggests Labor’s morale recovery last week will be short-lived: according to GhostWhoVotes, it has the Coalition opening up a 54-46 lead on two-party preferred. Labor’s primary vote is 32 per cent (exactly where Newspoll had it), with the Coalition on 46 per cent (two points higher) and the Greens on 12 per cent (two points lower). Again in common with Newspoll, it finds a majority of respondents nonetheless supporting a flood levy, of which 52 per cent approve and 44 per cent disapprove. Tony Abbott’s ratings are little changed: approval down one point to 46 per cent, disapproval up one to 49 per cent. Julia Gillard is down two points on approval to 52 per cent and up four on disapproval to 43 per cent, and her lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 53-40 to 51-41. If Nielsen’s usual procedure was followed, the poll would have been conducted between Thursday and Saturday from a sample of 1400.

UPDATE: Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the New South Wales segment of the poll has Labor trailing on the primary vote 31 per cent to 48 per cent: this would be from a sample of about 450, with a margin of error of about 4.5 per cent. Nielsen pollster John Stirton suggests federal Labor might be suffering in NSW from the imminence of a train wreck state election, although the swings on these numbers are in line with the rest of the country. Coorey provides more evidence for the swing’s uniformity when he says Labor is doing poorly in the states that bedevilled it at the election: New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia. The poll also finds opinion continuing to divide evenly over a price on carbon, which 46 per cent support and 44 per cent oppose. Sixty-five per cent say they approve of Julia Gillard’s handling of recent natural disasters, for all the good it has done her.

UPDATE 2: Crikey reports better news for Labor from Essential Research, with Labor gaining a point on two-party preferred to 50-50. Since Essential Research combines two separate weekly polling periods, this is a more significant move than it would be from another pollster. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 40 per cent, its best result since late October, while the Coalition is down two to 44 per cent. On each measure this is Labor’s best showing since the poll published on November 1.

Furthermore, the poll offers evidence of Tony Abbott taking a solid personal hit following the events of last week: his disapproval is up nine points since a month ago to 46 per cent and his approval is down four to 38 per cent. Julia Gillard has also gone backwards, down two on approval to 48 per cent and up five on disapproval to 41 per cent. While this is her worst disapproval rating yet from Essential, the approval is her second best since July: last month seemed an anomalously good result for her, and “don’t know” has reached a new low of 11 per cent. Gillard has also slightly widened her lead as preferred prime minister from 47-32 48-31. Crikey also reports the opening of a substantial gender gap, which has long been assumed but not always strongly backed by the data: Gillard’s preferred prime minister lead is a thumping 52-26 among women, but only 45-36 among men. Gillard’s net approval is almost even among men but plus 15 among women, while Abbott while is minus 12 among women and only slightly negative among men.

More worringly for Labor, the poll finds a substantial shift against the National Broadband Network since opinion was last gauged in September. Support is down eight points to 48 per cent, with opposition up from 18 per cent to 31 per cent. There is also very strong support for a permanent disaster relief fund: 63 per cent against only 29 per cent opposed.

UPDATE 3: Full Essential Research report here.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

6,529 comments on “Nielsen: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  2. The coming end of the American Empire
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    A US writer looks at the collapse of half a century of US policies based on supporting tyrants to get their oil,and Israeli domination of US policies…now all in the rubbish bin of history , as the tide of revolution sweeps the Middle East
    http://www.amconmag.com/blog/fall-of-the-raj/

  3. he aint under 45

    Not that may *he’s* under 45 in the joint – a minority most of the time.

    Quite a few *her’s* under 45 though and increasing all the time.

    Also the parliament reflects better educational attainment in the workforce
    generally, so what your point ??

  9. [But he is such a cute little monkey-thingy. Lemur?]

    Puffy, Gus thinks he is very demure lemur. he’s fooled many people including Frank 😉

  10. dave

    phew, that arrow was barbed

    🙁

    my point

    how many peeps are blue collar and under 25

    and pls cushy clerical/retail AINT FRIGGING BLUE COLLAR

    if you like to continue firing arrows, cool

    but maybe you should look to the intent, not your intent

    🙁

  11. [Blue collar Workers – Members of a Union.

    LIb Policy – Union – BAD.]

    Frank

    my local member craig t is the closest labor has to an old style labor guy

    My point is we must never lose the base that spawned us

    the issue is the mix not the quals?

  12. [6311

    Gusface

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 9:44 pm | Permalink

    Blue collar Workers – Members of a Union.

    LIb Policy – Union – BAD.

    Frank

    my local member craig t is the closest labor has to an old style labor guy

    My point is we must never lose the base that spawned us

    the issue is the mix not the quals?
    ]

    And other people pre-selected aren’t ??

  13. frank

    i am not proscribing a cure all

    merely hilighting where the party has ended up

    As regrads the fibs there representation is way more narrowcast

    BUT imo labor must address the issue of the blue collar cohort

    a few notables in some electorates have been bypassed for ahem machine peeps

  15. [Gusface

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 9:48 pm | Permalink

    frank

    i am not proscribing a cure all

    merely hilighting where the party has ended up

    As regrads the fibs there representation is way more narrowcast

    BUT imo labor must address the issue of the blue collar cohort

    a few notables in some electorates have been bypassed for ahem machine peeps
    ]

    And openinig it up to the Great unwashed is going to fix that ??

    In fact you will ind a well orghestrated campaign amongst that 20% “supporter” segment in a tight contest can deliver the exact opposite. Especially when it’s a contentious local issue.

  16. Gusface@6310

    dave

    phew, that arrow was barbed

    my point

    how many peeps are blue collar and under 25

    and pls cushy clerical/retail AINT FRIGGING BLUE COLLAR

    if you like to continue firing arrows, cool

    but maybe you should look to the intent, not your intent

    My post # 6303 is *barbed* ? In what way ?

    Sorry old mate – you’ve lost me on that ?

    I am Labor but I just don’t equate = blue collar Ok,

    Other = No good. How so ?

  17. Combet and Andrew Leigh for me. Stellar. But I don’t want to see Julia gawn yet, by any means. She is awesome.

  18. [dave

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 9:52 pm | Permalink

    Gusface@6310

    dave

    phew, that arrow was barbed

    my point

    how many peeps are blue collar and under 25

    and pls cushy clerical/retail AINT FRIGGING BLUE COLLAR

    if you like to continue firing arrows, cool

    but maybe you should look to the intent, not your intent

    My post # 6303 is *barbed* ? In what way ?

    Sorry old mate – you’ve lost me on that ?

    I am Labor but I just don’t equate = blue collar Ok,

    Other = No good. How so
    ]

    Gus wants a return to the glory days of 1972.

    But sadly – those days are over.

  21. [confessions

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    Gus:

    Which seats could a blue-collar candidate win for Labor that it doesn’t already have?

    *serious question*
    ]

    not a marginal one for a start.

  24. [confessions

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 9:55 pm | Permalink

    Hasluck?
    Lindsay?
    ]

    Put it this way – Hasluck was won by an Indigenous Public Servant – for the LIBS.
    Sharryn was a Union Gal.

  25. Fess

    probably most outer metro seats

    once again the issue raised was NOT per se the blue collar vote but the lack of a matching representation in parl

    aamoi the electorate is being played to the base emotions by the fibs, having some reps who are from the BC cohort would take a bit of steam out of said attacks

  28. [Not that may *he’s* under 45 in the joint – a minority most of the time.

    Quite a few *her’s* under 45 though and increasing all the time.]

    i didnt respond to the barb re the male/female setup

    🙁

    Dave

    I am not trying to “score points” more point out the realities

  29. [Gusface

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 9:59 pm | Permalink

    Fess

    probably most outer metro seats

    once again the issue raised was NOT per se the blue collar vote but the lack of a matching representation in parl

    aamoi the electorate is being played to the base emotions by the fibs, having some reps who are from the BC cohort would take a bit of steam out of said attacks
    ]

    Brant Webb, one of the Beaconsfield Mine survivors stood for the Tasmanian State seat of Bass – guess what, he isn’t in the Chamber.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d02cvBdhqXE

  31. [I had a blue collar job once. Was horrible at it. I am a thinker, not a doer.

    (Yes, that means I am a lazy shit with no work ethic)]

    Often wondered how JG ‘s work ethic uber alles goes down with the electorate, TSOP. Seems a long way removed from the old Labor movement principles of 8 hrs work, 8 hours sleep, 8 hrs play, and the general notion of improving people’s lives by trying to reduce the number of hours they work in favour of more time for “real life’ and the family.

    Yes, I’m sure it works for her personally, and wins votes in some quarters, but I wouldn’t think it does much for those who are already overworked or underpaid. The protestant work ethic is certainly very strongly entrenched in Oz, but it would be nice to see a bit of recognition that other things matter too!

    We all very clearly know Julia’s views on the importance of work and education. I’m not trying to devalue their importance myself, either, but it is time for her to broaden her horizons into areas that people in less “significant” jobs than hers might get a little more pleasure from too, I reckon!

  32. Gus the link I posted above is Craig Thomson’s bio

    Just saying. Not trying to score anything —

    http://parlinfo.aph.gov.au/parlInfo/search/display/display.w3p;query=Id%3A”handbook%2Fallmps%2FHVZ”

    Biography for THOMSON, Craig Robert

    Member for Dobell (NSW)

    Australian Labor Party

    Parliamentary Service

    Elected to the House of Representatives for Dobell, New South Wales, 2007 and 2010.

    Committee Service

    House of Representatives Standing: Economics from 19.2.08 (Chair from 13.3.08); Petitions from 19.2.08 to 19.7.10; Privileges and Members’ Interests from 19.2.08 to 19.7.10; Regional Australia from 25.10.10.

    Joint Standing: Parliamentary Library from 25.10.10.

    Personal

    Born 31.7.1964, Wellington, New Zealand.

    Qualifications and Occupation before entering Federal Parliament

    BComm (UNSW), LLB (UTS).

    Industrial Officer and Assistant Secretary, Health Services Union (NSW).

    National Secretary, Health Services Union 2002-07.

    Electorate

    Description: provincial.

    Location: central coast of New South Wales; it includes the centres of Bateau Bay, Berkeley Vale, Blue Haven, Matcham, Mount Elliot, Ourimbah, The Entrance, Warnervale, Wyoming, Wyong, the Yarramalong Valley, and parts of Erina Heights, Gorokan, Holgate, Lisarow, Kulnura, Narara, Niagara Park and Wamberal.

    Area: 775 sq km (approx.).

    Electors enrolled: 93 661 (at 21.8.10).

    Industries: fruit, vegetables, manufacturing industries, prawning, fishing, tourism and mixed farming.

    State electorates: Dobell includes parts of the New South Wales Legislative Assembly electorates of Lake Macquarie, Terrigal, The Entrance and Wyong.

  35. Gus:

    Another question about blue-collar workers is whether they are prepared to sacrifice high income potential during a mining boom with moving into parliament?

    FWIW I’d love to see more actual ‘workers’ in the ALP, if only to dispel the myths the Libs have propagated wrt their OMG! union affiliations etc. I do wonder whether the nature of parliamentary work lends itself to people from blue collar employment.

    I guess we’ll find out when the DLP man joins the Senate.

  38. [Gusface

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 10:09 pm | Permalink

    dave

    craig actually scrubbed dunnies

    like kev did

    anyways, you have disingenously sidetracked

    truly sad, when you try to debate and others seek to minutate
    ]

    Jobs during Uni don’t count – if they did, then Bilbo can replace Mellissa Parke in Fremantle 🙂

  39. [craig actually scrubbed dunnies]

    JG’s first job was peeling vegies and serving meals in an old people’s home.

    My first job was packing cartons of Twisties for export to Saudi Arabia. Hah! Beat that!

  40. [Don’t you mean these guys ?]

    Ha! Knew you were going to do that. I know the La De Das from “How Is The Air Up There” which is on the brilliant Nuggets II. And of course from Kevin Borich, who hung around the music scene like a bad smell into the 1980s.

  41. Have you all forgotten how many blue collar voters Labor has lost aver the past 10 years.
    The unions have lost their sway with the common man and as such are slowly dieing because these tradies now earn more than most “white collar” voters who had traditionally voted conservitive.*

    You only have to look at the red neck policies of the one Nation Liberal party to see their plan in motion.

    *could be way wrong with this statement but it’s my current opinion and I’m happy to stand corrected. I get the feeling that most of the posters here have quite a few years on me and the life experience to have taken note to the changes in social demographics and the effect on votes.

  42. [confessions

    Posted Friday, February 18, 2011 at 10:11 pm | Permalink

    Gus:

    Another question about blue-collar workers is whether they are prepared to sacrifice high income potential during a mining boom with moving into parliament?

    FWIW I’d love to see more actual ‘workers’ in the ALP, if only to dispel the myths the Libs have propagated wrt their OMG! union affiliations etc. I do wonder whether the nature of parliamentary work lends itself to people from blue collar employment.

    I guess we’ll find out when the DLP man joins the Senate.
    ]

    And the Anti-Social hours and the amount of time being in Canberra – it would make FIFO look attractive.

  43. dave

    NB

    I STATED UNDER 45

    craig is the closest in the age cohort male or female who has done blue collar work

    anyways since noone has shown any alp fed parl under 45 who is blue collar

    I REST MY CASE

  44. So is the AWU tossing Bitar or not?

    Surely Howes has had something to say by now? It’s a full three hours since the story broke.

  45. I was a paper delivery boy at 10 for one of Murdochs papers and delivered
    the newspaper that announced JFK assasination.

    I do remember where I was.

  48. [A 46 year old Lawyer, born in Wellington New Zealand ?? *Old Style Labor* FFS

    Born in Wellington, New Zealand! La-di-da.]

    are you actually.defending. me

    *passes out*

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