GhostWhoVotes reports Fairfax’s monthly Nielsen poll has the Coalition leading 54-46. One way to look at this is that there has been no change since a month ago, and this is the line newspapers who commission these polls are generally required to run. However, it was clear enough at the time that the previous result was an outlier, so this poll adds to a general impression of the Coalition lead having blown out from about 51-49 to 54-46. Notably, Nielsen’s two-party result is the same as last week’s Newspoll. Other results since the carbon tax announcement have been a 56-44 Morgan phone poll result, which came from a small sample, and the progress of Essential Research’s fortnightly rolling average from 49-51 to 52-48 to 53-47, from which the hair-splitters among us ascertained weekly results of 55-45 in week one and 51-49 in week two (UPDATE: Actually, Dendrite in comments nicely demonstrates why this need not be so). The latter result always looked like an anomaly, and since it will make up half of tomorrow’s published Essential result there will be cause to regard whatever it is as slightly flattering to Labor. We also had 50-50 from Morgan’s face-to-face, but this was also in keeping with the overall trend when you factor in its consistent bias to Labor.
UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes reports in comments that Nielsen more or less replicates Newspoll in having Kevin Rudd favoured over Julia Gillard by 39 per cent to 34 per cent. One point of agreement to emerge from this morning’s critically acclaimed episode of Insiders was that head-to-head polls of this kind are not to be trusted, as they invite non-supporters of the party to make mischief – which could equally apply to Tony Abbott’s shaky ratings against Malcolm Turnbull and Joe Hockey. Even so, Morgan records Gillard’s lead over Rudd among Labor voters as shrinking from 37 per cent to 10 per cent over the past three months.
UPDATE 2: Full results courtesy of GhostWhoVotes here. The two-party vote being what it is, the primaries are a little better for Labor than anticipated: the Coalition is on 45 per cent, as in Newspoll, but Labor is on 33 per cent rather than 30 per cent. This looks as much like a 53-47 result as a 54-46. Julia Gillard’s approval ratings are substantially better than in Newspoll: approval down five to 47 per cent, disapproval up four 47 per cent. This might be seen as evidence of the bounce leaders traditionally get when before the world stage, which may also have buttressed them a little on voting intention. Whereas the previous Nielsen poll uncovered no evidence of Tony Abbott taking a hit from the Mark Riley death stare and its attendant week of party disunity, this time he is down three on approval to 43 per cent and up three on disapproval to 52 per cent. The preferred prime minister has little changed, with Gillard steady on 51 per cent and Abbott up one to 42 per cent.
UPDATE 3: The latest Essential Research survey joins the 54-46 club, up from 53-47 last week. Labor’s primary vote is down a point to 35 per cent, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 47 per cent and 10 per cent. The monthly question on personal approval to has Julia Gillard in net negative territory for the first time, her approval down seven points to 41 per cent and disapproval up five to 46 per cent. Tony Abbott is respectively steady on 38 per cent and up a point to 47 per cent. Both have similar ratings for “strongly approve” (7 per cent each) and “strongly disapprove” (24 per cent for Gillard and 27 per cent for Abbott), with the latter notably higher than the former. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 48-31 to 44-33.
Questions on carbon price serve to remind us that wording goes a long way: when asked whether they would support the scheme “if the money paid by big polluting industries was used to compensate low and middle income earners and small businesses for increased prices”, which is pretty much the idea (albeit that there is no shortage of devil in the detail), 54 per cent said they would against only 30 per cent who said they wouldn’t. However, to further emphasise how complicated the politics of this gets, 45 per cent agreed action should be delayed “until the US has established an equal or stronger carbon pricing system” against 33 per cent who did not agree. Respondents were again asked if they merely supported the government’s announcement, with 38 per cent saying yes (up three on last week) and 49 per cent said no (up one).
Questions on same-sex marriage and territory rights underscore the surprisingly candid misgivings The Australian expressed last week about democracy. Forty-nine per cent support same-sex marriage against 40 per cent opposed, while 74 per cent failed to recognise that federal ministers should remain capable of overriding territory legislation at their whim (which The Australian regarded as so self-evident it did not trouble itself to explain why). Only 9 per cent were dopey enough to take the contrary view.
OH, AND BY THE WAY: Don’t forget to take advantage of the fabulous Crikey group subscriptions offer detailed in the post below this one.
Boerwar
are these AS those that have overstayed their visas?
5300 – *in the
Cuppa:
Could be. My initial thought was that it might have had something to with with Denovan himself. He is, I think, a pretty senior newsreader there. Maybe he has some kind of input into the news he reads? As in, he can veto stuff? Certainly his bulletins are more ‘news’ based rather than re-hashings of people’s opinions.
I would have thought coming into drive time would be a prime spot to position anti-government items. If that was the way they were inclined.
I’m fascinated at the moment about the extent to which presenters and news staff are willing contributors to what we hear. The impression I get of News Ltd is that a lot of journalists there are toeing the Murdoch line. They want to be successful journalists within the broad slant Murdoch demands, whether they agree with that direction or not. They would, I’m sure, regard that as pure professionalism – that is, achieving under the parameters as set by the boss. Perhaps careerism is a better word. I get the feeling some of them would write differently at another organisation.
I’m not so sure with the ABC. There’s an overall slant to the organisation, I think, but it doesn’t seem to be adhered to as strictly. That makes me wonder how that can come about. And exactly how many of its employees are willing participants.
[Not aimed at you Gary….just used your post to make my point…..]
mark, I only did that to show I agree with you, nothing more.
Boerwar@5298
Are you suggesting the timing of this is simply a coincidence?
Burgey
gee talk about going for the jugular.
Oscar
I see you are a conspiracy theorist. Join my club 😉
K
There are at least three layers: The outer building, which is mostly gone following what everyone seems to be thinking is a hydrogen explosion.
Then there is a concrete layer and then there is a steel layer of the reactor vessel.
I suspect that what you are looking at is the remains of the roof girders of the outer building which have fallen down onto the concrete layer.
victgoria – a big no which makes it all the more pleasing.
mari @ 5299
I am still working on it. 😉
BH
Interesting indeed.
[5267
Diogenes
Posted Friday, March 18, 2011 at 1:38 pm | Permalink
you can’t say something was the greatest moral issue we faced, then dump it for three years, then say you will fight for it, and still look credible
The comments from Labor that “delay is denial” seemed a bit of a problem as well.
]
Trouble for the bash labor no matter what a couple of fictions are all fine and dandy club is that the delay and denial were all the fault of the democratically elected
Parliament of the commonwealth functioning pursuant to that quaint little document the constitution.
If you look at the support before Abbott and the greens destroyed consensus you might predict a DD election as a possibly preferable solution. You look at how the debate progressed and you are entitled to conclude the DD would have backfired and setback action by the term a the liberal govt (or longer where the senate outlived the govt). Either ‘guess’ is valid but what is not valid is the quite stupid claims about labor being soft on action. There is no reasonable basis on which this conclusion could be drawn as illustrated over and over again by those needing to include fiction to get there.
Blatant race baiting from Chris Smith on Radio Liberal – disgusting!
Boerwar
if there are security and AFP police at the detention centre, how did it get so out of hand?
The transcript of Sky’s The Nation includes this commitment from the minister on detention centres:
[Chris Bowen: No, we put them where it’s appropriate. You do need a lot of space for these things and sometimes they do need to be reasonably remote, because you don’t find the requisite amount of space close to a capital inner city. But where we can, I certainly think it’s better to have access for social services and more frequent visitors and less remote where possible.]
Sounds like the govt are trying to regain control over the AS issue by making calm, incremental changes to the policy, and talking about humaneness and access to services. The only thing Morrison could do is squeal about Boats! and the number of beds.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1OzCD8yWFWsTmpOvf0if1XNiUqHLerE1Tl8pegVokZpo/edit?hl=en&authkey=CLTPm4UH&pli=1#
Boerwar,
I bloody hope so.
The angle of shot could be misleading me, but it looks as if that “reactor core” should be sticking up well above the inside level visible there…
[LATIKAMBOURKE | 2 minutes ago
Tony Burke made decision on cattle grazing just moments ago. Says info back from Vic Govt about reasons is ‘a joke.]
Thanks for the Akerman alert on Insiders.
If Insiders wants to do grubby partisan political they can watch themselves in the mirror.
I will not be switching it on.
[LATIKAMBOURKE | 1 minute ago
Fed Environment Minister Tony Burke says Vic Govt must get cattle out of Alpine Park by 8 April]
Just watched a news item showing a Japanese doctor saying lots of elderly patients arriving who are starving. And the hospital does not have sufficient food to feed them.
This is all getting very, very sad.
[LATIKAMBOURKE | 14 seconds ago
Tony Burke says environmental assessment needed for mining development in Tarkine]
So another of Baillieu’s election promises goes by the wayside…..
meanwhile in good ol Oz, we have journos complaining about how the world Nuclear is pronounced.
confessions
have to say so far, Ballieu and his team are quite disappointing.
victoria
The detention centre was not built as a maximum security prison. So, I imagine,
(1) large crowds can gather
(2) it is possible to manufacture crude but effective weapons with day-to-day materials
(3) the buildings are flammable
(4) the complex is difficult to ‘lock down’.
(5) different classes of inmates are not separated. So, those with nothing to lose because they have had their applications denied, can behave badly and drag others willy nilly along with them.
The best thing to do with Insiders is not watch until the show is prepared to be sensible.
If the program wants to live by the ratings game, it should be prepared to die by the ratings game.
Boerwar
you make some valid points
SK
It is much worse than that. Reports are coming in that elderly people have been abandoned by staff and have died of cold and starvation in several institutions, both inside and outside the exclusion zone.
So, I predict that truth wizards like Mr Bolt will claim that the panic was worse than the real thing.
No, the behaviour of the asylums seekers is what appears to be disgusting.
They have little or nothing to gain from any of this other than what they see as some kind of advantage over the rest of the people on Xmas Island.
I don’t think we want his kind of behaviour here. Hadley made a good point this morning (as much as I hate to admit it): this is outright thuggery, given that we’re doing them a favour big time.
I have zero sympathy for them. They’ve caused enough trouble for the government (it could be argued justifiably, in that they have human rights under various conventions) by coming here in an irregular fashion, but now they want to cause more for their own selfish ends.
Get rid of them. Piss the trouble-makers off. Anywhere but here. Put them in jail for all I care. They’re fouling their own nest, and the nest of perhaps thousands of others less ready to go the biff to get what they want.
Anyone that can’t see this is a catastrophe has got rocks in their head. It doesn’t matter what Bowen says in a presser. The media will only use 10 seconds of it, the worst, most embarrassing 10 seconds they can find. Childish gloating over who made a gotcha over whom at some presser won’t change the basic equation: these ratbags are poison for the government.
Agree with Boerwar on this 100%.
Boerwar
I believe Bolt has been the butt of jokes this week. Best he try his best to shut his pie hole from now on.
“CATHOLIC bishops have warned the faithful against voting for the Greens in the state election, saying some of their policies were of ”grave concern”.”
So says the Age today. Just confirms my view and why I am now a lapsed Catholic.
What a bunch of F-wits.
George Pell is a disgrace. His letter to the Senate committee on climate change was imbecilic, idiotic and disingenuous. He pretends to speak on behalf of Australian Catholics.
Oh, they must feel so warm and snug at night in their sodden ecstacies of rectitude…that club comprised of Pell, Abbott and Devine, to name a few.
IMHO, Baillieu is up to what I expected, which was not a whole lot. Wasn’t his nickname Cottee’s or something like that?
He has only been for a couple of months and he is already trashing Brand Liberal.
Gary@5304
All’s good…. 🙂 🙂
BW
[There are at least three layers]
Hey, you watched the Glen Beck video after all!!
Boerwar,
Can’t sit and do nothing.
[ SpaceKidette Space Kidette
@KRuddMP Many people in Japan are now starving. How can we help get food and water to them?
2 minutes ago Favorite Reply Delete ]
I am unclear as to whether the asylum seekers causing trouble are those that have overstayed their visas and their applications have been rejected?
I suppose we should be thankful Tone is at the CHCH memorial service in NZ, and hence not able to call pressers every couple of hours to bleat about Boats! and AS.
victoria
According to Bowen, it was a mix of people who had had their applications denied and others. What the others thought they were doing, I have no idea. They have just fixed their own wagons.
Boerwar @ 5332
And Baillieu is a ‘moderate’!!
confession
Parliament resumes next week. There is ample opportunity for his three word slogans. What bugs me the most is that over 90% in detention are those that have come by plane. Nothing to do with stopping the wretched boats.
BB:
Last night’s violence was the 2nd or 3rd incident this week.
[I am unclear as to whether the asylum seekers causing trouble are those that have overstayed their visas and their applications have been rejected?]
Apparently only some of the rioters were those who’d been rejected. Why on earth those still being processed would think it’s a good thing to go along with the violence is anyone’s guess.
confessions
I suppose sometimes sheer frustration and fear, make people do irrational things.
[Hey, you watched the Glen Beck video after all!!]
Diog, I tried to (for entertainment??) but it told me it had imploded or something. 🙂
[No, the behaviour of the asylums seekers is what appears to be disgusting.
They have little or nothing to gain from any of this other than what they see as some kind of advantage over the rest of the people on Xmas Island.
I don’t think we want his kind of behaviour here. Hadley made a good point this morning (as much as I hate to admit it): this is outright thuggery, given that we’re doing them a favour big time.
I have zero sympathy for them. They’ve caused enough trouble for the government (it could be argued justifiably, in that they have human rights under various conventions) by coming here in an irregular fashion, but now they want to cause more for their own selfish ends.
Get rid of them. Piss the trouble-makers off. Anywhere but here. Put them in jail for all I care. They’re fouling their own nest, and the nest of perhaps thousands of others less ready to go the biff to get what they want.]
Agree completely BB just as I agreed with your comments regarding those ‘refugees’ that rebelled on board an Australian ship once their lives were saved.
I wonder what effect that incident had on Rudd’s approval ratings.
victoria,
The AFP only gets called in if SERCO can’t handle it. Part of the documented escalation procedures.
[Blatant race baiting from Chris Smith on Radio Liberal – disgusting!]
Write to management complaining and send copy to Broadcasting mob.
Laws had a bloke on the other who was stirred up and Laws helped him a bit more.
OH wanted to report it for race baiting but unfortunately we’d missed a bit of the earlier part of the conversation.
Who are we to judge and pronounce as inhuman trash deseving of deportation or gaol desperate refugees unless we have walked a thousand miles in their shoes? By ‘we’ I mean self-righteous secure citizens of a treaty signatory nation such as yourself.
Dislodged and psychologically damaged people who have given up everything – everything – in escaping from torture or death and who are trying to protect their families need understanding and compassion, not further abuse.
Besides, they are already in gaol, in direct contravention of our signed human rights obligations to the UN. We should not punish them for standing up for their rights under international law against our discriminatory practice against boat arrivals.
What we should do is close Christmas Island centre forthwith and bring all refugees on shore to be processed in the community in a compassionate Australian multi-cultural way.
The rioters were a mixture:
Rejected with still some rights of appeal / review
Accepted waiting for security clearance.
If it isn’t already being done, the detainees should be put through an induction that spells it out loud and clear that any bad behaviour will most likely invalidate any asylum claim.
On the other hand, if they are on a small island with no means of leaving, why do they need to be confined 24 hours per day behind razor wire? Why not let them out during the day to engage in recreational pursuits like going for a walk? That might reduce some of the tension.