Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Coalition

For the second week in a row Morgan has published results from a phone poll of around 520 respondents, from which the only conclusion that can be safely drawn is that if you conduct small-sample polls you get erratic results. Whereas last week’s survey gave the Coalition a thumping 56-44 lead – about 2 per cent above the overall trend – this week it has it at 51-49, which is about 3 per cent below it. As always, I’m using the two-party figure which apportions minor party and independent preferences according to the results of the previous election, rather than how respondents allocated them. Labor’s primary vote this time is 35.5 per cent rather than 31.5 per cent, the Coalition is on 42.5 per cent rather than 47.5 per cent, and the Greens are 12 per cent rather than 10 per cent.

Whereas last week’s poll had opposition to the carbon tax at 57-33, this time it’s 54-38 – which is still quite a lot worse for the government than the 48-35 and 49-38 results from Essential Research over consecutive weeks. Last week Morgan found 72 per cent believing the Prime Minister had broken an election promise with only 19 per cent believing otherwise – this week the figures are 68 per cent and 23 per cent. Support for Tony Abbott’s promise to rescind the legislation is essentially unchanged, with 44 per cent (steady) in favour and 46 per cent (up one) against.

Morgan has also published phone poll figures on nuclear energy, and even though this one too is from Wednesday and Thursday evenings, for some reason the sample is 635 rather than 523. Fifty-nine per cent support the export of uranium for peaceful purposes with 34 per cent opposed, though it seems for many “peaceful purposes” doesn’t include nuclear power: with that qualification, only 44 per cent were supportive with 50 per cent opposed. Sixty-one per cent say they are opposed to the development of nuclear power plants in Australia with only 34 per cent supportive: figures provided from a poll in September 1979 are provided, showing 52 per cent support and 35 per cent opposition. Forty-nine per cent don’t believe other countries should build nuclear power plants either, against 37 per cent who believe they should.

UPDATE (Monday): Essential Research has the Coalition lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up a point to 36 per cent and the Coalition down one to 46 per cent. Essential have also thrown Tony Abbott a curve ball by asking respondents where they believe he stood on climate change: 33 per cent believed the Coalition opposed any action, 36 per cent believed it didn’t and 29 per cent didn’t know. Opinion on the effectiveness of the carbon tax is perfectly evenly divided: 43 per cent believe it will make big polluters reduce emissions, 42 per cent believe it will not; 41 per cent believe it will increase investment in renewable energy, 38 per cent believe it will not. While 79 per cent believe a carbon tax will increase the price of electricity, 78 per cent expect it will increase anyway (though presumably not by as much).

The poll also records a slump in support for nuclear power, to 35 per cent from 43 per cent late last year, with opposition up from 37 per cent to 53 per cent – and strong opposition up from 16 per cent to 32 per cent. The level of support for a full withdrawal from Afghanistan is now up to 56 per cent from 47 per cent in October, a steady 30 per cent support the commitment at the current level, and only 5 per cent (down from 10 per cent) believe it should be increased.

GROUP SUBSCRIPTIONS UPDATE: We have now cleared 50 takers for our Crikey group subscriptions offer, so anyone else who wants to take part can now rest assured they can land themselves a year’s subscription (or an additional year on top of the one you’ve already paid for if you’re a subscriber already) for the outstanding price of $65. If you want in, drop a line to Jade Butler at jbutler@crikey.com.au.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,249 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 51-49 to Coalition”

Comments Page 1 of 65
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  1. Unfortunately, whatever gains the govt made this week will probably be squashed this weekend by CI and the way the media portrays it.

    Otherwise, we are where we were post election.

    However, if the next couple mirror this, it then becomes obvious that the ‘scare’ campaign was unsustainable and once the electorate saw Abbott’s alternative, they thought again.

  3. [I missed the beginning of The Wrap, as I was busy plucking a cockerel (well, somebody’s gotta do it!). Then I read someone’s comment about Roskam and decided not to bother.]

    You mean you’re going to cook the cockerel with the feathers on? 😀

  5. From previous thread…
    myk42
    Posted Friday, March 18, 2011 at 5:46 pm | Permalink

    Back on the Cookies thingy – when you vote a small file is written to your PC (cookie) – if try to vote again it checks this file, sees you have voted and denies it. Deleting this file allows to you vote again.

    I do not encourage this sort of behavior!

    No, it’s shocking isn’t it!!! 😀

    Space Kidette
    Posted Friday, March 18, 2011 at 5:46 pm | Permalink

    bemused,

    Is there a link and I will also vote.

    Too late, closed now… but you needn’t worry. The good guys came out on top.

    mari
    Posted Friday, March 18, 2011 at 5:52 pm | Permalink

    Bemused 5595 You are a true friend to Peter of Marino, did you anticipate SK also wanted to vote?
    It is the exact reversal of when I looked at it this morning, was 53/47 against RG article finished up 53/47 for, which is great and I know these polls are not worth much, but still pleased it has ended up like this as I am sure it had started being manipulated earlier

    I am noted for my caring nature and wouldn’t want anyone to miss out 😉

    Peter of Marino
    Posted Friday, March 18, 2011 at 5:53 pm | Permalink

    Your a star bemused. The palpitations have recede

    Always happy to assist in such matters 😀

  6. Therese Rein shows she has a great sense of humour.

    [ Therese_Rein Thérèse Rein
    I always knew this! :)D that #kevinischuck @Joe_Hildebrand http://ow.ly/4gYhB”
    4 minutes ago Favorite Retweet Reply ]

  7. I have signed up for sub. Finding PB before the last federal election has been great. I have learnt a lot from it and happy to help support it. Appreciate our host’s hard work.

  8. Oakshott Country if you are around, saw that the Rallies pro and “agin” carbon were on in Port Macquarie around 100 pro after being organised last night- somewhat less”unquote” the news report against. If they can’t get as many against in PM I think they are in trouble I doubt if there was 25 there against as per photo
    Were you there? Report?

  11. I was at the Pro rally I would have said closer to 200 – didn’t stay for the anti. We were heckled by the organizer of the anti – a strange old man who heads the Fishing Party. His line of argument is that life is carbon based and therefore carbon can not be a pollutant. Most of the local media was there and they gave the fishing man some coverage. I agree if they can’t mobilize the deniers among the large group of Jones/Hadley listeners here – the people’s revolt is in trouble.

  12. Just sent a bit of information to Channel 10 re the appearance of Bolt on the 6PM/Negus programme. Told them I quite enjoyed their show, which is true, but as long as they have extremists giving opinions, I won’t be back. Which is also true, particularly as Futurama and Family Guy are on in opposition.

  13. Libya says thanks
    ________________
    One of the leaders of the rebel Govt has expressed his thanks to the nations that voted to save them from Gadfaffi’s wrath(He spoke of taking benghazi”with mercy” and he would have )
    100.000’s of people have stayed up all night in Benghazi celebrating,and in other cities too,even in Tripoli.
    So what does G. do now…fight to the finish in his bunker(shades of Hitler!!)…because escape will be difficult once his airforce is gone.and there are now friendly neighbours to flee too…and he is wanted by the International Criminal Court ? so what now !!

    http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/Libyan-Opposition-Welcomes-UN-No-Fly-Zone-Resolution-118224

  14. Serious Mari?
    25 anti? and 100 pro.

    Does the media know this?

    Perhaps I should email Julie Bishop and tell her the rallies are lining up pretty much as those figures on my link to her poll ….do you think she’d appreciate that?

    👿

  15. [His line of argument is that life is carbon based and therefore carbon can not be a pollutant. ]

    There’s a t-shirt hiding in there somewhere – I am carbon and I don’t pollute

    Might get some done up and flog em at the bus stop as the coaches carrying the revolting arrive in Canberra.

  17. SK ,(9), after that effort I will also award you a gold star, almost as good as a Pollstar

    Oakshott Country( 11), yes I saw a strange man trying to make a goose of himself at the pro rally, who I think 7 said came from the Fishing party. I lived at Laurieton once would have been at the Pro if I still lived there. I am so pleased at the outcome today, as the area was/is very conservative

  18. Rudd’s profile this week has been huge – Surely this will be beneficial to Julia and the Government in general?
    The Ruddster is still a huge asset for Federal Labor. 🙂

  19. Jenauthor, that was channel 7 local news, see also Oakshott Country comment 2 above yours. I was going on the shot, certainly wasn’t many and even ch 7 said they were “somewhat less” in number which is a pretty big admission from them

  20. [evan14
    Posted Friday, March 18, 2011 at 6:39 pm | Permalink

    Rudd’s profile this week has been huge – Surely this will be beneficial to Julia and the Government in general?
    The Ruddster is still a huge asset for Federal Labor. 🙂 ]

    As posted earlier on the other thread Julia will be replaced by ruddy after the royal wedding

  21. Joe6pack: I don’t think so, Labor can’t afford to change leaders again before the election, and most of the caucus hate Rudd.

  22. I know it sounds counter-intuitive, but I get the strange feeling that having Federal Police shooting tear gas and bean pellets at asylum seekers might not actually be a negative for the government.

  23. Don’t know what to do here.
    Just got this letter in the mail.
    Says WTTE;
    Next step in the NBN rollout in your area is connecting to your property, could you please email this address or phone us on……… to let us kow that we can access your property in the next couple of weeks.

    I don’t know whether to ring or email them, always decisions. 😉

  24. joe6pk,

    Being a full on sports lover, I have always thought a team that is strong across the board is far better than a team of also rans with a single star player.

    Federal Labor are blessed with leadership talent, outright intelligence and street smarts right across the park, where the Fibs are flat stick picking someone who could at least sell the idea that they are leadership material.

  25. [Joe6pack: I don’t think so, Labor can’t afford to change leaders again before the election, and most of the caucus hate Rudd.]

    why would rudd give up the foreign ministry to go back to pm? fm is where he should stay.

  26. [I know it sounds counter-intuitive, but I get the strange feeling that having Federal Police shooting tear gas and bean pellets at asylum seekers might not actually be a negative for the government.]

    It’s certainly a negative for the cause of asylum seekers generally.

    I’m sure AS sympathisers will be even further outraged (if that’s possible) and anti AS people will be saying about f’ing time. In the middle there will be those who will be thinking that AS have a strange way of showing gratitude to a country in which they wish to settle.

    Refugee action groups would be well advised to deter those they represent from any further demonstration of their anger and frustration.

  28. gosh how did i get here didnt even know we had a new thread

    i remember last weeks morgan was awful. has this really changed have the people now realised they are on to a good thing re extra money in their selfish pockets.
    or is it just and set of people.

    who knows.

  30. Space Kidette
    Posted Friday, March 18, 2011 at 6:56 pm | Permalink

    [joe6pk,

    Being a full on sports lover, I have always thought a team that is strong across the board is far better than a team of also rans with a single star player.

    Federal Labor are blessed with leadership talent, outright intelligence and street smarts right across the park, where the Fibs are flat stick picking someone who could at least sell the idea that they are leadership material.]

    Did you not know that julia is knocked up ?

  35. J6p
    I think Rudd is over PM ambitions. There are greater stages a-calling. I would love to see Rudd in the UN.

  36. :[[ in the NBN rollout in your area is connecting to your property, could you please email this address or phone us on……… to let us kow that we can access your property in the next couple of weeks.

    I don’t know whether to ring or email them, always decisions. ]

    you could start with brining out the bubbly, then rining tone and telling how lucky you are. then thank sen. conroy.

  38. [Orbison
    Posted Friday, March 18, 2011 at 6:25 pm | Permalink
    Just sent a bit of information to Channel 10 re the appearance of Bolt on the 6PM/Negus programme. Told them I quite enjoyed their show, which is true, but as long as they have extremists giving opinions, I won’t be back. Which is also true, particularly as Futurama and Family Guy are on in opposition]

    mmm i didnt think it would take long for this to happen too good to be true no right wingers,
    i turned it off soon as they started on christmas island and remingtons intro he sounded to excited for my liking

  40. SK
    [Gaffhook,
    It is official. I am sooo bloody jealous of you right now!
    Where do I have to move to?]
    I am just waiting for the day to see the first real estate adver’t posted along the lines of
    [Beautiful family home in quiet street. 4 beds, 2 baths, family room, pergola, carport umr, NBN connected.]

  42. Puff @35,

    I was thinking the same today.

    FA is good for Kevin and I think it will help him over the events of last year. As far as I am concerned he has done nothing that is not in the best interests of labor since becoming FA minister and is thriving on it.

    He knows he will never lead the party again and his ambition may now extend beyond domestic politics but he is really putting the interests of the party at heart at the moment.

    I wish him all the success now and in the future.

    I don’t care what the MSM goes on about I have every confidence in him being a very good FM.

  43. jv

    Very witty 😆
    Said cooked cockerel is now reposing in a rich mixture of red wine, spices and vegetables. Tomorrow’s dinner.
    I think he’ll be a bit tough, though. Very good at chasing hens all over the garden.

  44. sorry i had to go searching for this because i thought mr bolt may have said something
    { but no its a farmer and his wife]
    may be they watch the farmer want s a wife. but at new comers tonight want have to search to find out how this got here

    [Posted Friday, March 18, 2011 at 5:30 pm | Permalink
    Was told by by a bloke and his wife on a farm near murgon today that JG. is definatley knocked up and will announce after the royal wedding that she is stepping down and K.Rudd will return as P.M. Seems it was planned a few months ago, and she has been taking fertility drugs, and her and Tim have been going at it like rabbits and that is the reason she is looking so shagged (pun Intended) lately.]

  45. mari @ 39

    Bemused (29)
    I found a Fijian dollar in one of my pockets, I’ll send it on Monday, you deserve it

    I can add that to the US 25c I got in my change recently. Will really build up my coin connection.

  46. [Did you not know that julia is knocked up ]
    i have never heard that expression before
    i thought it was a spelling error and it meant locked up

  49. Puff,

    It is funny you mention the real estate ads. I was talking to an IT friend about the speeds we get here and his comment was the same. I told him next time I moved I would investigate the data connections available before I purchased.

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