Surveying the damage region by region:
| 2011 PRIMARY VOTE | ALP 2PP | |||||
| ALP | L-NP | GRN | 2011 | 2007 | 2003 | |
| Inner Sydney | 29.3% | 36.9% | 21.2% | 47.4% | 59.6% | 64.1% |
| -12.9% | 12.0% | 0.0% | -12.2% | -4.6% | ||
| Northern Sydney | 12.2% | 67.6% | 14.0% | 19.2% | 35.5% | 42.3% |
| -8.8% | 16.2% | 2.5% | -16.2% | -6.9% | ||
| Western Sydney | 41.3% | 40.4% | 6.9% | 50.6% | 68.3% | 71.5% |
| -16.3% | 16.2% | 0.9% | -17.7% | -3.2% | ||
| Southern Sydney | 35.1% | 49.6% | 8.7% | 42.5% | 56.7% | 62.2% |
| -12.1% | 13.6% | 1.5% | -14.3% | -5.4% | ||
| Outer Sydney | 24.7% | 53.0% | 8.1% | 34.2% | 57.8% | 60.8% |
| -23.5% | 17.3% | 1.3% | -23.6% | -3.0% | ||
| SYDNEY | 28.5% | 50.7% | 11.1% | 37.9% | 55.3% | 59.9% |
| -14.5% | 15.7% | 1.6% | -17.5% | -4.5% | ||
| Central Coast | 28.7% | 51.5% | 12.0% | 37.6% | 51.9% | 57.5% |
| -12.9% | 12.9% | 4.8% | -14.3% | -5.6% | ||
| Hunter Region | 30.9% | 36.1% | 8.8% | 47.0% | 59.8% | 60.5% |
| -12.9% | 12.6% | -0.3% | -12.8% | -0.7% | ||
| Illawarra | 35.2% | 34.5% | 12.3% | 51.5% | 68.7% | 69.6% |
| -19.0% | 12.0% | 1.7% | -17.2% | -0.9% | ||
| North Coast | 12.7% | 60.7% | 13.1% | 22.9% | 35.9% | 41.5% |
| -11.7% | 12.4% | 2.6% | -13.0% | -5.6% | ||
| Regional | 16.5% | 59.7% | 6.1% | 25.8% | 36.8% | 40.6% |
| -11.0% | 29.5% | 0.5% | -11.0% | -3.8% | ||
| NON-SYDNEY | 22.7% | 50.8% | 9.1% | 34.2% | 46.1% | 48.5% |
| -14.5% | 15.7% | 1.6% | -11.9% | -2.4% | ||
Inner Sydney (6 seats). All seats had been held by Labor except Sydney; now they have lost Drummoyne and Coogee to the Liberals and are tussling with the Greens for Balmain and Marrickville (though they are probably home and hosed in the latter). Labor got pummelled by a 23.9 per cent swing in Drummoyne, and in the mid-teens in Heffron and Coogee. However, their vote held up a lot better where the campaign had been framed in the Labor-versus-Greens terms. The method I’ve used for approximating Labor-versus-Liberal two-party results doesn’t work so well when non-major parties take a big share of the vote, which applies to most of this area.
Northern Sydney (15 seats). By this I mean “the Liberal area” (albeit that it includes Ryde, which Labor won in 2007 – but which now has a Liberal margin of 26 per cent), and to this end I’ve stretched the definition of northern Sydney to include Vaucluse. This area recorded Labor’s lowest primary vote swing simply because they had the least to lose here – a swing as big as in outer Sydney would have sent them beyond the twilight zone and into negative territory.
Western Sydney (19 seats). All were held by Labor going into the election: now they’ve lost Camden, Campbelltown, Granville, Londonderry, Parramatta, Smithfield and Strathfield, and are going down to the wire in East Hills. The two worst swings were in seats they retained: Cabramatta and Lakemba. The 9.1 per cent swing in Macquarie Fields was about 5 per cent better than anything else in the region, and probably has something to do with the unusually big swing last time.
Southern Sydney (6 seats). This includes Liberal-held Cronulla and five Labor held-seats in the St George/Sutherland/Maroubra area. Labor has lost Miranda, Rockdale and probably Oatley. Swings in the Labor seats were in the 13 to 15 per cent range except Miranda, where a very slight margin was annihilated by a 21.8 per cent swing.
Outer Sydney (6 seats). The new suburbs are always the most volatile, and the 23.6 per cent two-party swing reflects this. Four of the seats recorded swings in the 20s, peaking with Riverstone at a giddy 29.9 per cent. Labor won all six seats at the 2007 election – now there are Liberal margins ranging from 4.7 per cent in Blue Mountains to 24.8 per cent in Menai.
Central Coast (4 seats). Featuring Terrigal, which the Liberals already held, and Gosford, Wyong and The Entrance, which they didn’t before but do now. Labor suffered a tellingly smaller swing in Wyong (9.5 per cent), where member David Harris stood and fought, than in Gosford (16.5 per cent) and The Entrance (17.1 per cent) which were vacated by sitting members.
Hunter Region (8 seats). Previously six Labor seats, one Liberal seat and an independent seat, now five Liberal seats, two Labor seats are an independent. Newcastle, Charlestown, Maitland and Swansea went Liberal, while Cessnock and Wallsend stayed Labor. None of the independents who were being touted proved a serious contender: Newcastle Lord Mayor John Tate managed less than half what he scored when he nearly won the seat in 2007 to finish in fourth place.
Illawarra (5 seats). All Labor before, now two Labor (Shellharbour and Keira), two Liberal (Kiama and Heathcote) with one going down to the wire between Labor member Noreen Hay and independent challenger Gordon Bradbery, who is the only potential new independent.
North Coast (7 seats). Six Nationals seats have become seven with Peter Besseling’s defeat in Port Macquarie.
Regional (17 seats). Previously accounted for two Labor (Bathurst and Monaro) and two independent (Tamworth and Dubbo) seats, now a conservative clean sweep. All four gains have been by the Nationals, most memorably Bathurst with its 36.3 per cent swing. Liberal held seats in this group are Albury, Bega, Goulburn, South Coast and Wagga Wagga).
The 2011 results in the table are based on almost the entire polling booth count, with a couple of booths still outstanding here and there. The swings are in comparison with the comparable figures from the last election. The two-party figures presented above are based on estimates in the many cases that were not Labor-versus-Coalition two-party contests, and are perhaps a little lacking in finesse. I have basically extrapolated the preference flows for the seats where there are Labor-versus-Coalition on to the ones where there aren’t. Independent and minor party preferences appeared to have divide about 24 per cent to Labor and 20 per cent to the Coalition, with 56 per cent exhausting. This compared with 30 per cent to Labor, 20 per cent to the Coalition and 50 per cent exhausting in 2007. The 2011 figure was determined with reference to 63 electorates where there were a) complete polling booth counts, and b) Labor-versus-Coalition preference figures available.
The upper house looks like 11 seats for the Coalition, five for Labor, three for the Greens and one each for Shooters and Fishers and the Christian Democratic Party, although Labor could perhaps yet poach the third Greens’ seat. If not, the numbers in the chamber will be Coalition 19 (12 Liberals and seven Nationals), Labor 14, Greens five, Shooters and Fishers two, Christian Democratic Party two.
[I would have thought the glasses comment could have been taken as a fairly gentle joke (given the diatribe that passes for discussion on this blog sometimes!!!).]
ModLib,
It’s probably sagacious for all of us not to make personal jokes this morning, and you are to be highly commended for withdrawing, a rare event on this blog.
All, the same, I do agree that it was “fairly gentle” when compared with last night’s #1 abusive effort, “whiny twat”. No prizes for guessing the PB’er who wrote it.
I heard a colleage of BOF say he was president of the college at Ursula. I was there 83-85, he was late 70ies. Rudd was Burgman apparently. Abbott was never John 23rd but given a crikey story recently sounds like he should’ve.
[One would have to be a political nitwit, or disingenuous, to argue that a change of the political party in government in NSW presaged a similar change in Canberra. Could happen, of course. But, given NSW’s electoral history, it is the Gillard government, not the Opposition, that would be taking comfort from the NSW result – as several media commentators have notes … without giving the actual evidence.]
Too bloody right Gary.
Just ask Howard about whether the NSW ALP prevented him from staying in power.
For heaven’s sake – Oakes was even saying that he didn’t agree with this view last night. The press gallery cannot help themselves — we don’t even need to read/listen to their rubbish to know what it is these days, it is so predictable that it can be summarised by:
[Gillard is in trouble.]
Why?
[Tony Abbott says so!]
I withdraw my comment above about possibly giving Robertson the first shot at the leadership to get him out of the way as soon as possible. Labor’s got to appoint someone who’s going to clean up the party. I think the only person who can do that is Nathan Rees, even if he doesn’t make the long journey to becoming premier again.
The fruitloops. First the scorn, then the anger, then they agree. In the Fin Review profile of Anthony Pratt last week one of his favourite quotes ‘only unreasonable people make any progress’.
Some of us just get too bored being a sheep.
DARREN – Keating won the unwinnable 1993 election with Lib govts in NSW and Victoria. Would he have won it if they were labor govts? Bet not.
P Garrett also had a swing through Ursula.
Hey all,
Sometimes I think I’m in the wrong party or at least have the wrong idea about my party…
I’ve lived for most of my (very young) life in Labor held seats in the Oatley/Kogarah area. I’ve generally have been middle-class well off, the exact suburbs I’m in have little crime, everyone is nice to each other, sensible etc.
Perhaps I over the years I have associated this with Labor but looking at exactly booth by booth statistics it appears I live in the liberal strongholds within the Labor seats?
Maybe I was wrong all this time?
E.g. Connells Point Public was my primary school and according to http://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/la/la_election_night-Kogarah.htm it has the largest concentration of Liberal voters in the area…
I must also say that last night’s ABC coverage was interesting.
Antony was as terse and flustered as ever — and even border-line orgasmic in places with certain large swings. I doubt he would have been as excited if these had been swings to the ALP.
And just when we were starting to miss Communist Kerry from 7.30 we were quickly reminded how unprofessional he can be in live TV. As opposed to 2007, where he had the innocent tally room spectators to berate for interrupting his precious coverage, last night he unloaded onto his own crew!
He berated them Alan Jones-style for not being ready for the O’Farrell “interview”, even chastising them for not having the picture up ready for him. It was embarrassing to watch — can you imagine a Ray Martin, a Walter Cronkite, or a Katie Couric carrying on like that during an election coverage?
Utterly shambolic on a night where there were few surprises.
ABC : must do better.
Where is the money coming from
Well after all the relatives of ALP parliamentarian and ex-parliamentarians has been sacked
That should open about 100 mil a year … and I am not kidding
There’s no lamenting amongst left-of-centre folks the demise of this foetid ALP regime. Really, it’s a rejection of the end result of the Howard-style politics started by Bob Carr in 1995. Regrettably for the ALP, the ALP didn’t pick up on that in 2007. Some of them probably concluded that this was their last term no matter what they did, and instead of trying to at least govern to save the furniture, figured they might as well party. Once the privatisation debate wrecked the government, all discipline was lost and a zombie government was destined to run down the clock.
For that reason, it’s rather a shame that the election wasn’t possible 2 years ago. The government has been a zombie entity since then. It’s also a shame that Roozendale is still there. It would have been nice to have seen him swept away, but one can’t have everything.
One of the more amusing aspects of this was Hatzistergos claiming that The Greens were the big losers out of last night’s vote. Oddly, we didn’t suffer a 17% swing but actually increased our vote — not by anywhere as much as we’d have liked it’s true, so it was disappointing, but Hatzi’s spin was astonishing. He claimed we ran against Tebbut and Firth “for [their] own gratification”. Obviously …
So how did The Greens go in this election? One would have to concede, not so well. The main advantage we Greens have is strong “brand” awareness. Both those who sympathise and those who are hostile have a strong sense of what we stand for (though it’s not always right). That works well when there are strong issues in which our brand is pertinent. This “election” was unlike most state elections. There was no auction over who had or would crack down harder on union militancy or put more police on the beat or lock up more sex offenders or cut taxes and red tape for business. When I asked Liberal booth workers to declare which policies of O’Farrell’s they liked the best, there were long pauses and nervous looks. As far as can be told, O’Farrell didn’t like a carbon “tax”, wanted to get rid of the Epping-Parramatta rail link, and ethics classes in schools. Just up the road from us was a Liberal sign which read “Make NSW Number 1” but which, partially obscured by a shrub, read “Make NSW Numb”. That’s certainly how those voters who weren’t viscerally angry seemed. Standing on a polling booth yesterday, lots of voters didn’t even bother taking HTVs. They’d made up their minds as to for whom they weren’t voting and couldn’t give a proverbial over what else people were saying.
If we Greens were seen as a credible chance of forming, or even supporting, a new government, our issues would have been moderately useful. In any election where there are no issues beyond the integrity of the existing government itself, our brand and our issues are of almost no marginal use at all. Accordingly, much of our mediocre performance was a consequence of this election being in practice more like a plebiscite.
The other problem for a party like ours is that really, it is very difficult to develop an across the state theme around policies seen as Green. You can, as we are, be involved with dozens of local campaigns around planning, housing, transport, schools and bushland and get nothing at all in a state election out of it because all the issues are seen as local, and because you need the state governing party member to act. And of course, as far as the brand is concerned, most of the big picture issues are Federal.
What we really ought to have done, IMO, is to have run as the ALP of popular and positive imagination. We ought to have had a slogan something like: Tell Labor how they should be! Vote Green! We should have run on those big thematic issues about equity, sustainability, community control and opposition to the big end of town. The closest we got was in the inner city where we had vacuous slogans like “Real Change for a Change”, which sounded a lot like the LNP slogan. In a polarised election, we had to be one of the poles, and we just weren’t. Our campaign was principled, but tactically naive, and we paid a (modest) price for that — perhaps 1-2% overall and perhaps 5% in the big inner city seats and urban ALP heartland.
One last note …
I took grim satisfaction in seeing Virginia Judge swept aside by a swing larger than the state average — 20%. She tied running as if she were an independent Green which was about as sleazy a move as one could make. I had hitherto had a lot of respect for her, but after that, it utterly evaporated.
fair point about nepotism. Yvette Andrews ALP Left at Addison Rd Centre in Marrickville, former staffer to Meredith Burgmann. Formerly general manager of the centre with NO open competitive job selection process for about 18 months if memory serves. Now general manager of reverse garbage apparently, with worrying report in of procession of resignations in the last 6 months. I haven’t confirmed this last claim but it is sad.
Gary, I’m reading your posts with interest this morning . This one catches my eye
[You’re making the mistake of equating state election results with federal. Nuff said.]
There is a huge federal issue that is playing out at state level and that is the stupidly high levels of net migration and the population surge it is creating.
The gap that is appearing in services (public transport, heath and education) at state level is becoming more and more visible. Voters would normally turn to the ALP to do these things better than the Libs.
The same issue played out in Victoria
If the Greens couldn’t win Lower House seats at this election, they never will in future.
Perhaps if they’d preselected better candidates in Balmain & Marrickville?
[If the Greens couldn’t win Lower House seats at this election, they never will in future.
Perhaps if they’d preselected better candidates in Balmain & Marrickville?]
They were also up against two of NSW Labor’s better and more likeable members – Carmel and Verity.
Credit where credit is due, Evan!
Federal implications?
Massive rejection of the carbon tax/any action on climate change that entails people having to pay more for goods & services/amenities – Gillard’s got to have second thoughts about her proposals.
Backlash against more and more immigrants, especially boat people, settling in Sydney.
Tom
With the election of Oakey, I had pencilled in Port Macquarie as one place (apart from the Blue Mountains and Tasmania) where it might be nice to retire to 20 years or so from now. If it does prove to be just a bunch of reactionary tub thumpers, it will be a shame.
[They were also up against two of NSW Labor’s better and more likeable members – Carmel and Verity.
Credit where credit is due, Evan!]
Absolutely…….Verity now on 51.0 in Balmain, according to Their ABC. 🙂
[I withdraw my comment above about possibly giving Robertson the first shot at the leadership to get him out of the way as soon as possible. Labor’s got to appoint someone who’s going to clean up the party. I think the only person who can do that is Nathan Rees, even if he doesn’t make the long journey to becoming premier again.]
Christopher Columbus! Two withdraws in one morning!
Onya’ Rosa, as John Robertson is too divisive a figure to be the LOTO right now. I’ve no quarrel with his efforts while head of his electrical workers, but he would never be able to heal and reunite the party.
Fran, your prism is communcation strategies through the Big Old Media corporates. I don’t accept that as a viable premise. The deep corporate greedy bias means the Greens have to build their own media capacity and machine. A 10 to 20 year project but enormously satisfying and important work. This is the taboo topic, and when the Greens give themselves permission to be Big Media, themselves and not supplicants and mendicants including to the ABC, they will win govt. But there may not be much left by then….
[I agree with Finns about the cycle, but you don’t usually get 20% swings even at the bottom of the cycle.]
Soc, as i said before, it’s the revenge factor that has never seen before in aust politics.
i am going to defy the conventional wisdom here. The punters of NSW made a bog mistake for not kicking out the Labor Govt 4 years and now they are also making a big mistake for punishing Labor in such as a brutal way. In away, they are taking it out for their own stupidity.
It’s No good democracy.
Nathan Rees or Michael Daley for Opposition Leader – no faith at all in Robbo having the nerve to clean up the mess & start bebuilding.
Mind you Evan, Verity ran as an independent candidate for much of the contest {keepverity.com} and also had third party help via John Hatton to split the Green vote.
My seat of Epping: 18% swing to the Liberals! The Labor candidate barely got into double figures percentage wise.
Tom, according to Wikipedia, BOF went to Ursies in 1975 and was Pres in 1976. I was politically active then, but have no recollection of him (mind you, the entire 1970’s is a bit of a blur). Garrett was next door at Burgman and I knew him from the band Rock Island Line in early 1973, I don’t recall him being at Ursula. The most awful high profile Lib in those days was Micheal Yabsley. Nick Minchin worked behind the union bar and there wasn’t much indication of how he’d turn out. Gary Humphries was a bit later and he was a student lib.
Agree — Nathan Rees would be the best of the options at this point.
[The Labor candidate barely got into double figures percentage wise.]
Apparently she was only 23 years old — younger than my elder son!
[Soc, as i said before, it’s the revenge factor that has never seen before in aust politics.
i am going to defy the conventional wisdom here. The punters of NSW made a bog mistake for not kicking out the Labor Govt 4 years and now they are also making a big mistake for punishing Labor in such as a brutal way. In away, they are taking it out for their own stupidity.
It’s No good democracy.]
Revenge wont make the trains run on time, or make the M5 run more smoothly during the morning peak!
[That should open about 100 mil a year … and I am not kidding]
Even if here was some value in what you suggest (and I think you are dreaming) you’d have to agree that 100 mil a year is bugger all considering what BO will have to find to keep Barry’s Battlers satisfied.
No – BO can’t do anything but disappoint. This is by far his high water mark.
dovif,
[Where is the money coming from
Well after all the relatives of ALP parliamentarian and ex-parliamentarians has been sacked
That should open about 100 mil a year … and I am not kidding ]
Of course the Libs “never” appoint anyone from their particular political viewpoint to public positions, or people related to them in some way or another no matter how remote?
Sorry Dovif. That $100m is imaginary. Your mob will still have the same amount of fat cats, staffers etc. Just that they will be from the Liberal side of the fence, that’s all.
Darren Laver
Here in Victoria, Ballieu won seats along the rail link that had many problems. They are still having the same problems. In fact, they have worsened over the past four months.
@109
Interesting coverage that’s for sure. The ridiculous swings meant Antony spent the first hour or so hedging and dodging because he feared the computer was wrong.
Gladys B was so desperate to talk down expectations she actually took Antony to task for claiming the Liberals were winning in Campbelltown, Charlestown, etc… “there’s no way we’re winning those seats Antony”. Although she did apologise (and became much less uptight about just sitting back and enjoying the win) later on.
Foley was good i thought; didn’t sugar-coat the loss at all. I think there was one “we got 22 seats when most were expecting it in the teens” but nothing else in the way of attempted spin. Although the fact that he spent about 90% of the time talking about Marrickville shows what kind of election it was for them.
Really this huge result is a sign of destabilised polity and society. A wild swing giving a blank cheque to the nominal ‘BOF’ team, when each major is quite similar and has no deep answers to over population and 1M cars sold a year. The public are lurching and grabbing at previously safe alternatives from the same bag. Sooner or maybe later the public may realise that the solutions are via a paradigm change. A few more lurches and they will be braver for a step change. It might take some climate change disasters but it’s inevitable really this 21C.
Good morning bludgers.
I have recorded Insiders, but think I’ll delete it having seen from comments here that the commentary is back to its usual below-par standard.
The country really could do with a good political analysis show for Sunday mornings. Why is it so difficult to do?
Tom McLoughlin
haven’t there been enough disasters lately to give people some pause?
Tom said:
[the Greens have to build their own media capacity and machine. A 10 to 20 year project but enormously satisfying and important work. ]
Oh I agree. We are well past the point where we can expect the commercial media (in which I now include their ABC) to even report professionally on public policy. In the longterm, that has to be one of our projects. That doesn’t help us here though.
[Darren Laver
Here in Victoria, Ballieu won seats along the rail link that had many problems. They are still having the same problems. In fact, they have worsened over the past four months.]
Exactly!
O’Farrell is already making excuses before he’s even been sworn in — with comments like “NSW votes will need to be patient”.
The next election will be interesting — I have not yet written it off for Labor, but of course it will be very hard. By then though, it will be clear that most of problems in NSW are not solely the fault of NSW Labor, and the revenge/hate factor will be gone — many previously safe seats will go back to their natural state, there will be huge gains for Labor, which may not remove Barry but will certainly give him a nosebleed.
Watch this space as they say…
Fran@123, you have often projected an excellent sense of realism and pragmatism about the Greens – one of the few sane voices on here in the wake of the Vic election – but you’re just pissing against the wind here.
John Hatton was a) not on the ballot, b) polled bloody nothing anywhere. Crediting Jamie Parker not winning what should have been a lay down misere to his mediocre candidacy, and a degree of unpopularity amongst some residents as Mayor and not some indie candidate whose own mate in the seat polled nothing to boot. Also if Verity wants to run as a pseudo independent that’s her prerogative. Nobody voting would have not known she was Labor. Voters of Australia are not idiots, and certainly not wealthy, well-educated Balmainers.
Split the Green vote? What rot. The Greens don’t have some kind of ownership on the inner city vote where it is theirs by default until it is taken or split. The Green vote wasn’t split, the Green vote is what the Greens got.
Was this election mainly about public transport? During the recent heatwave I heard lots of people complaining about the hell of coming into town in carriages without airconditioning. To add to their usual complaints about them running late.
Anyone know how Fatty is going to get airconditioned carriages that run on time. If he doesn’t, he may get a real pasting in four years’ time.
confessions
On the other thread there were comments relating to Paul Kelly taking Abbott to task. Not sure if it was a commentary or an interview on Sunday Agenda Sky. I wonder if anyone saw it?.
Robbo is the problem not the solution. I would hope that this is understood and Tebbutt is pressured into the job – but I know that this will not happen.
[Good morning bludgers.
I have recorded Insiders, but think I’ll delete it having seen from comments here that the commentary is back to its usual below-par standard.
]
Delete and cancel any future recordings.
ABC News and Current Affairs are a waste of your precious gigabytes and an ongoing insult to your intelligence!
Was not on the ballot in the lower house in Balmain, that is.
Foley was a self interested disgrace on the justice issues of the BDS issue regarding Marrickville. This confirmed his the overpaid sleazy ALP Left the inner city has learned to recognise as disaster tourists and skin deep careerists for any latest fashionable struggle … until the next one to hitch their career too.
[I have recorded Insiders, but think I’ll delete it having seen from comments here that the commentary is back to its usual below-par standard.]
I switched off after Gerard started his hagiography to BOF and the anchor tried to throw to Gladys B last night.
VICTORIA – I put my comment up before reading yours. Very interesting.
rosa
if the election was about Public transport, good luck with solving it.
Question is who is going to pay to improve the infrastructure that is required.
I have come to the belief that the citizenry want top notch service by way of hospitals, transport etc, and not pay a dime for it. It does not work in the real world. They need to be paid for.
To paraphrase Paul Keating this is the thrashing we had to have.
We all knew it was coming and as Paul Howes says in today’s Herald Sun let’s now get on with the rebuilding.
No doubt there will be talk from some quarters of the ALP never recovering but it’s all crap. The wheel will turn again and somewhere down the track commentators who should know better will be speculating on the end of the Liberal party. That’s the way it goes.
Evan14
[Backlash against more and more immigrants, especially boat people, settling in Sydney]
Good call
[Robbo is the problem not the solution. I would hope that this is understood and Tebbutt is pressured into the job – but I know that this will not happen.]
Totally agree. Am tempted to think of WA with MacTiernan and Ripper. Who did the ALP go with in the end – the ineffective Ripper.