The Australian has published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns of its federal polling data, compiling the results of the four polls it has published this year (it took January off). The national figures are therefore no surprise to us, as they are merely an average of this year’s polling: Labor on 34 per cent of the primary vote compared with 38.0 per cent at the election, the Coalition on 42 per cent compared with 43.6 per cent and the Greens on 13 per cent compared with 11.8 per cent (remembering that phone pollsters seemed to have acquired a tendency to overrate the Greens and underrate Labor). The Coalition holds a two-party lead of 51-49, compared with 50.1-49.9 to Labor at the election.
The real interest in the figures is in the various breakdowns offered, particularly by state. The most distinctive result on voting intention is the solid recovery for Labor in Western Australia, from a dismal base of 43.6 per cent at the federal election to 45 per cent in October-December 2010 to 48 per cent this time. A Labor hike in Queensland from 44.9 per cent at the election to 48 per cent late last year looked rather too much at the time, and sure enough the latest poll has it moderating to 46 per cent. Labor’s decline overall has been driven by NSW/ACT, from 49.5 per cent two-party at the election to 48 per cent in both quarters, and Victoria, from 55.3 per cent at the election to 55 per cent to 53 per cent. In South Australia, where Labor has nothing in the way of tight marginals, they have gone from 53.2 per cent at the election to 51 per cent and 52 per cent.
If such swings were uniform, the Coalition would gain Greenway, Robertson, Lindsay and possibly Banks in New South Wales, plus Corangamite and La Trobe (but not quite Deakin) in Victoria. Labor would gain Hasluck, Canning and Swan in Western Australia, and Brisbane in Queensland. Other things being equal, and leaving Banks with Labor, there would be a net shift of one seat in the Coalition’s direction: from 73 Coalition and 72 Labor to 74 and 71. This of course makes the notably unsafe assumption that all sitting cross-benchers would be re-elected. Furthermore, the capitals and non-capitals breakdowns suggest it would be worse for Labor than that. In the metropolitan areas which are home to most of the marginal seats, the two-party vote is at 50-50 compared with 52.5-47.5 in Labor’s favour at the election. In the non-capitals Labor has gained ground, now trailing 52-48 rather than 53.4-46.6.
On personal ratings, the most interesting finding is that both leaders have soured among the 50-plus age group. The results for Tony Abbott defy some of the stereotypes about his support base: his 52 per cent disapproval among the 50-plus is the highest of any age group, and a once substantially higher approval rating among this cohort has fallen right back to the field. He has also lost ground among 35-49s, as has the Coalition on the primary vote. Gillard is down four points on approval and up five on disapproval among the 50-plus, a situation which is reversed among the 18-34s, now clearly her best cohort.
New South Wales and Queensland are about equal as Julia Gillard’s worst state, owing to a post-election recovery in Queensland. Victoria and South Australia are roughly equal as her best (although her disapproval is up in South Australia), with Western Australia surprisingly close behind. Tony Abbott’s ratings have been consistently mediocre in New South Wales and Victoria and consistently neutral in Queensland, but he has weakened considerably in South Australia and Western Australia: from net neutral to minus 14 and minus 12. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister is only six points in Queensland, elsewhere ranging from 15 points in New South Wales to 23 points in Victoria. Gender splits lean in the expected directions, though not as heavily as you would think. An exception is disapproval of Gillard, with women notably more reluctant to give her the thumbs down.
[Personally I get a little bit of sick in my mouth every time Julia Gillard talks about AFL and the Bulldogs ]
PubliusC – ah, you’ve told all the AFL fanatics out there that you are not one of us.
JG has been a true blue supporter of the Bulldogs ever since she moved to Melbourne. She’s an Adelaide girl – it’s in our very being so she grew up with it. If you love it you never lose that fanatacism with the game. There is no faking on her part – ask Tim.
Gus
that happend to me yesterday i was looking for some sewing equipment on line, and an sight answered my query and it had on it spam……. i had never seen anything like that before you would think my security software would of sent to the junk mail
the computer tells me i am now using a different area to send email than the one set up which is outlook express
my say
DONT INSTALL MS REMOVAL TOOL
it is a virus
you might need to restore your computer back a few weeks
get someone to help you do it
Publius is obviously well above us in the hoi polloi.
That was the biggest load of condescending, self righteous codswallop I’ve seen posted in a while.
BigBob
Hear hear!!
I believe PC should take his hand off it
[JG has been a true blue supporter of the Bulldogs ever since she moved to Melbourne.]
BH I would love to see a pic of Julia in the outer at Western Oval barracking for Footscray back in her Melbourne Uni days. Somehow I doubt one exists.
Like many of her “adult” political policies: “I’m a zionist!”, “American exceptionalism makes me cry!”, “I’m against gay marriage!” I fear it is all just political convenience.
By now Julia is so fake I doubt even she knows who the real Julia is. It’s sad.
Publius Clodius
All so true.
BH
[There is no faking on her part – ask Tim.]
And while you’re there you may as well ask Tim if she’s faking about Tim. 😀
We won’t be any the wiser about that even if there is a double wedding at the Royals extravaganza.
jv
you need to take your hand off it too!!
BigBob @3004
[That was the biggest load of condescending, self righteous codswallop I’ve seen posted in a while.]
Bigger than this:
[“And the Greens will never embrace Labor’s delight at sharing the values of every day Australians, in our cities, suburbs, towns and bush, who day after day do the right thing, leading purposeful and dignified lives, driven by love of family and nation.”]
Talk about condescending! “purposeful and dignified lives!” It’s like she’s narrating a wildlife documentary or commenting on the residents at a home for the mentally impaired.
PC
She said some things about the Liberals/Nationals as well. Did you agree with that?
Publius Clodius
All BS.
[I’m gonna be there — with bells on!]
I’ll be wearing a little sequinned thing I keep for just such occasions. You won’t be able to miss me. Come up and say hello.
Gusface, my say and others,
Whenever you get a popup like that, DO NOT click any boxes in the popup or try to shut the page using the X box at the top.
Bring up Windows Task Manager, go to the Processes tab and click on iexplore.exe and then hit end process. Say yes when the popup asks if you want to end that process.
This can be quite painful, as internet explorer will automatically try and reload the page. You just have to keep killing the iexplore.exe process until IE shuts completely.
Then run your anti-virus and, more importantly, your anti spyware software to make sure you have killed the beast.
I have found that I nearly always avoid infection and don’t have to do a system restore (which is usually painful, as these infections usually shut your ainti virus down and prevent you from running system restore).
[That was the biggest load of condescending, self righteous codswallop I’ve seen posted in a while.]
Thanks BigBob – I was trying to be ladylike and, apart from the footy, ignore the rest of the drivel.
victoria
[according to Abbott, the fight between Gillard and the Greens is a fake fight.]
It probably is, largely, but that doesn’t make what Gillard said any less stupid. She should emphasise real differences based on policy. Perhaps that’s why she had trouble – she hasn’t got much, other than what she shares with the Greens since the minority agreement.
jv
The Greens and the coalition say a lot of stupid things constantly. Get a grip.
[BH I would love to see a pic of Julia in the outer at Western Oval barracking for Footscray back in her Melbourne Uni days. Somehow I doubt one exists.]
Betcha they exist. In SA & Vic it’s a religion and most of us adhere to it faithfully.
[Publius Clodius
All so true.]
PC, JV and others … disparaging comments based on personal opinion that has absolutely no basis in knowable fact is laughable.
Neither of you KNOW her personally. You form your opinion based on what you’d LIKE to see. If she doesn’t produce your DESIRED image, you disparage.
We all do it. I know I do because I despise Abbott purely on GUT FEELING (well … not altogether true because what he says I find appalling). But criticisms based on your personal viewpoint aren’t really valid. They just make you feel good (like I do when I attack Abbott).
jv stick to being an idiot, a comedian you are not.
I find it amazing that some people know everything about another person and how they think and what they have done every day of their life without knowing the person involved or having met them. It sure beats assumptions and jumping to conclusions simply to suit ones own bias.
To have such power must be scarey. I am sure they would only use such power for good.
Use the power well PC.
[’ll be wearing a little sequinned thing I keep for just such occasions. You won’t be able to miss me. Come up and say hello.]
MadDog or Jenauthor – for gawd’s sake get a piccie of him!!
Do these trolls work on a rotating shift? One day it’s Generic Pillock, the next it’s Pubic Clod.
Who’s on tomorrow’s shift?
[We all do it. I know I do because I despise Abbott purely on GUT FEELING (well … not altogether true because what he says I find appalling). But criticisms based on your personal viewpoint aren’t really valid. They just make you feel good (like I do when I attack Abbott).]
Spot on. A “IMHO” wouldn’t go astray at times because that is all it is.
BH
I am imaging BB dressing up like Elton John!!!
oops – imagining
PC
[residents at a home for the mentally impaired.]
Have you seen our press-gallery lately?
Doyley,
It’s just stupid statements like “I feel a little sick in the mouth…”
It’s just infantile and reflects on no-one but the poster.
[I am imaging BB dressing up like Elton John!!!]
victoria – I’m thinking more Harry Butler from the stories he tells about the animal kingdom he inhabits.
LOL @ being told not to judge Julia without knowing her personally. This is a website where users have no problem labelling Tony Abbott a SOCIOPATH based on nothing much at all.
We have to form judgments of our political leaders, how else can we decide who to support? My opinion is as valid as the next man’s.
BH
[I’m thinking more Harry Butler from the stories he tells about the animal kingdom he inhabits]
Very funny.
[I would love to see a pic of Julia in the outer at Western Oval barracking for Footscray back in her Melbourne Uni days. Somehow I doubt one exists.]
You doubt it therefore you are correct? Is that your logic?
PC
Abbott’s behaviour every day shows me exactly who he is. A bitter, hollow, unhinged self centred lazy politician with three word slogans.
[By now Julia is so fake I doubt even she knows who the real Julia is. It’s sad.]
Hmmm, i see that Pubic Claudicus is back.
Of course, she is a fake. Dont they all fake it 👿 as Bob said:
[Ah, you fake just like a woman, yes you do
You make love just like a woman, yes you do
Then you ache just like a woman
But you break just like a little girl.
Queen Julia she’s my friend
yes, i believe it’s time to give her a bash again]
[Do these trolls work on a rotating shift?]
There are only so many sleeping spots under the bridge, so one of us has to be sent out.
[Personally I get a little bit of sick in my mouth every time Julia Gillard talks about AFL and the Bulldogs ]
That’s your own bile rising up. Like Pavlov’s dog you’ve been trained to respond in that way.
From Phillip Hudson of the Herald Sun
[
Just released Treasury figures say $30 carbon tax will cost families $16.60 a week – $863 a year (before compo). http://bit.ly/hgb2So
]
http://twitter.com/PhillipMHudson
Herald Sun Story
[
THE cost of living for households would rise by $16.60 a week under a $30 carbon tax, according to just released Treasury documents.
Treasury modelling shows the average household would face paying $4.20 a week more for electricity, $2.20 extra for gas, $3.60 more for automotive fuel and $1.70 extra for food.
The figures are based on petrol being included in the carbon tax and do not include any compensation for households or industry.
When petrol is excluded the overall weekly price rise for households is $11.70.
The documents, dated February 1, reveal that Climate Change Minister Greg Combet asked Treasury for the “weekly dollar impacts of a range of carbon prices for electricity gas, automotive fuel and food and the overall price impact on households”.
]
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/pms-carbon-tax-to-cost-households-1660-a-week-treasury-figures-show/story-fn7x8me2-1226032045234
jenauthor
[But criticisms based on your personal viewpoint aren’t really valid.]
Hmmm. You are correct of course, and I should be punished as a thought criminal. In future I will not make criticisms based on my personal viewpoint. I will do what every good citizen should do and confine my criticisms to those based on the viewpoint of the Labor party.
I shall send an email to the Ministry of Love confirming this and begging not to be hit with jointed truncheons.
[5 hours ago Favorite Retweet Reply » Salvor_Hardin_ David Richards
by Dan_Gulberry
Anytime TA starts with “I think”, he’s already lied
]
SK: yep. Making it up as he goes along as usual.
Look, Abbott is not a details man, more of a big picture specialist!
For a group who loves to talk about News Limited bias against Labor, it is strangely silent here about today’s big story of News Limited bias against The Greens (who they hate much more than Labor, not that it’s a competition).
Penbo has made an arse of himself refusing to concede he was wrong (or lying) about the ridiculous claims re Greens preferences in this piece: http://www.thepunch.com.au/articles/the-greens-when-in-doubt-cry-conspiracy
And still no correction.
Gus:
Oh dear, I had no idea! So sorry.
I don’t seem to have any issues. How would I know if I did?
All of those who still need to be told why Rupe HAAATTTEEES the NBN, I quote the following from the AFR today:
[“The reality is that News Corporation is essentially a cable television company. It will get 35 per cent of its $US32 billion in revenue this year from cable and satellite TV and earn 60 per cent of its $US4.5 billion earnings before interest and tax from the same source.
“Cable has the highest profit margin out of News’s seven main businesses, with operating margins of 35 per cent. In contrast, newspaper operating margins are less than 10 per cent…
“The stock has gone from being a high-risk bet on Murdoch doing deals to an investment in cable TV company threatened by the digital delivery of content via broadband…”]
[I am imaging BB dressing up like Elton John!!!]
Does Elton John wear underwear?
I don’t. It’s so… cloying.
Speaking as a card-carrying member of the Labor Party, I’ve got to say I understand where Green voters like JV are coming from in relation to JG’s statement about the Greens.
If JG did say what she is purported to have said about Labor v Greens, then it is is not surprising at all that Greens voters feel insulted by it. I would be if I were in their shoes and I wish she hadn’t said it.
By all means distance yourself from what you feel are the more “extreme” of Green policies, but don’t suggest that the party as a whole (and, by extension, their voters) are out of touch with contemporary Australia or are somehow lesser citizens than those who vote differently.
A very large cross-section of people vote for the Greens and they vote that way for a number of reasons; environmental, social and economic. Calling the party and their voters a bunch of whackos actually does Labor no favours at all, especially since a great deal of that voter base has actually come from Labor.
Way to ensure they never come back.
Oh, and just a reminder: the real enemy is the Coalition. Don’t piss on those who hate them as much as we do.
PC @ 3042
That story has been well covered over at “Pure Poison”.
BB
🙂
fess
you probably have a anti virus program running
I wasnt running any
🙁
(this comp is the kids- mine died last week- dreaded clicks of death – hard drive kaputsky)
[I think it is important to realise that labor and the greens are two separate and independent political parties , each with its own policy platform and agenda.]
Fully agree. I think the problem for the Australian political culture in accepting this though springs from the fact that although the Libs and Nat’s are a “coalition”, people are used to the Nat’s being simple liberal vassals.
The ALP / Greens relationship is very different but i dont think the media, or the Lib/Nat’s have gotten their heads around it yet.