This week’s Morgan face-to-face survey carries a shocking headline figure for Labor of 55.5-44.5 to the Coalition. However, it’s less than bad for them using the industry standard measure where preferences are allocated according to the results of the previous election, rather than as indicated by respondents, which has it at 53.5-46.5. This slightly edges the 53-47 result of March 26-27 as Labor’s worst performance since the election. The driver is a big hike in the Coalition primary vote from 43.5 per cent to 48 per cent, with Labor down a point to 36.5 per cent and the Greens down 2.5 per cent to 9.5 per cent.
On the subject of preference allocation, it should be noted that Labor’s preference share on the Morgan respondent-allocation measure has been fairly steadily declining since the election, as shown in the chart below (which smooths things out by using a three-week rolling average). The upshot of this is that the “preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2010 election” figure might be flattering Labor a little.
In other news, today has seen the release of the full data from the Australian Election Study for the 2010 election, an ongoing academic endeavour which targets a sample of about 2000 respondents with questions on voting intention, issue stances, party identification, personal background and a plethora of other information. I’m currently mining this for findings of interest and will add them to this post in due course.
[2448
victoria
Posted Monday, April 11, 2011 at 3:31 pm | Permalink
Frank. Calabrese
What’s the bet Assange will go on a rant against Gillard and Rudd
]
Why do you think they are interviewing jim – to kill time ?
fair enough Jen. I have serious concerns as to whether the electorate of New England can buck the prevailing anti govt trend and expect it to manifest their displeasure by voting for a candidate who can’t back the ALP.
i also have grave concerns for Oaky.
as ever i hope i am incorrect.
The Commissioner is already on the record over the SKYPE affair. Will the soldiers say this clouds her objectivity?
[An attitude that shows disrespect
Elizabeth Broderick
April 7, 2011
A deep cultural shift is required to change negative attitudes towards women in the defence force, but it will take time.
A young armed forces cadet, unbeknown to a female cadet, sets up a webcam to secretly film them when they are having sex. If that is not bad enough, he Skypes it to a group of his mates who are watching in an adjoining room. This was the unfortunate, sickening scenario that made headlines yesterday.
It is not an isolated incident. You may recall the events on HMAS Success, after which an independent inquiry highlighted a culture of predatory sexual behaviour and tribalism aboard a Defence Force vessel.
And there have been others.
Why is this sort of behaviour taking place in the Defence Force and why does it seem difficult to stamp it out?
As one of the advisers on women’s issues to the Australian Defence Force, I have some insight into the action being taken by it to address these issues. There is a strong commitment to change.
We are talking about an organisation that is one of the largest employers in Australia. It has a workforce of about 75,000 people, 86 per cent of whom are men.
Even to a casual observer, this represents a profound gender imbalance.
…
The Australian Defence Force is aware of this issue. In fact, in the current situation, it is hard not to recognise that it has acted quickly and decisively.
As an organisation, it recognises that deep cultural change is required if negative attitudes towards women are to change.
Together with others, I have worked with Defence to develop an approach that includes commitment to increasing the enlistment and retention of women and making commanders accountable in this regard. It wants to build a workplace that accommodates career flexibility and difference and encourages career management practices that better accommodate women. It wants to secure an organisational culture that is free from sexual harassment and gender-based bullying.
This is not simple for any organisation, let alone one of its size. And it will take time.
But it is not enough simply to have senior leadership determined to stamp it out. Middle management needs to be engaged and committed. As is the case with many organisations, the main cultural barrier in Defence is a deep-rooted and ingrained institutional bias that makes it difficult for women. These male middle managers make the decisions about who gets hired and who gets promoted. More often than not, they do so in their own image.
Until they recognise that strong effective leadership has both a male and a female face, the desired change will be difficult to achieve.
The young girl at the centre of this current controversy is in a vulnerable place. Although she is new to Defence, what has happened to her is symbolic of the cultural problems that the many decent men and women are trying to fix. I doubt many mothers are looking at this and actively encouraging their daughters to consider a military career.
I urge Defence to accelerate its cultural reforms. Without more women, without an ironclad commitment to respect for women, these unsavoury incidents will continue.]
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/an-attitude-that-shows-disrespect-20110406-1d4ee.html
Broderick’s appointment is very provocative. Good work Smith.
Like with the rest of it, MM I reckon we have a long way to go.
It all depends on what happens as a result of the senate change.
If we get lots of good news, and the opps cannot make any headway (because of the controversy they currently keep trying to generate while things are so ‘close’) and the senate becomes a bit more agreeable, when they start to see some real reform … well … I HOPE people’s common sense outweighs their self-interest (as projected to them by the opposition and media).
THEBURGERMAN | 1 minute ago
[#LunchAgenda with @David_Speers feat. Nicola Roxon, plus @JoshFrydenberg and @]
http://j.mp/fIkhcp #auspol
Hmmmm.
When I type in — “Elizabeth Broderick” — into Google search. I get this paid advertisement
[Australian Army – Take the Initiative & Challenge Yourself
Join the Army Today.
defencejobs.gov.au/Army
Army Job List
Army Lifestyle Army Reserve]
No bull.
I disagree with the way in which the journalists are referring to ‘the young male in question’.
There were seven of them in the Skype incident.
Plus there was the one who squirted shaving cream over the woman cadet’s door.
Plus there was the one who yelled out, ‘Name and shame the dirty slut.’
Then there were the ones who started chanting ‘Do it!’
Roxon is a bloody star! On agenda she was clear, concise and very believable (as she always is). She corrects Speers as soon as he utters a nonsense. Explains the facts of the situation.
If her portfolio weren’t so big, I reckon she’d be a great general spokesman for the govt.
Jen, my concern has always been that part of the value proposition of an independent is that they aren’t aligned… i just hope windsor and oaky dont lose that perception amongst their constituents.
Is that ADFA presser still going?
Can you actually do this Minister?
[Kylie_Simmonds The Roads Minister Duncan Gay says he won’t take responsibility again if the RTA bungles traffic plans for anymore major events. ]
Crikey / Bernard Keane / 4
[Voters would prefer companies and high income earners to pay more tax rather than welfare recipients getting slugged, today’s Essential Report shows.]
but gee do essential even understand to ask this question.
we are not paying the tax only the polluters are.
some one should ask ess, do they understand the process does not sound like it to me
bg
It is finished right now
[Is that ADFA presser still going?]
If it were Abbott holding it, it would have abruptly concluded very soon after the statements – especially considering Comedian Riley asked the first question.
jenauthor
Ms Roxon can be an excellent performer but has somewhat disappointed to date as Minister for Health, IMHO. Health should be a deadly advantage for Labor.
In particular, Ms Roxon has, to date, missed addressing effectively mental health.
[Roxon is a bloody star! On agenda she was clear, concise and very believable (as she always is). She corrects Speers as soon as he utters a nonsense. Explains the facts of the situation]
gp visit 72 dollars for the standing few min, vitis understand rebate has gone up but.
any one get here charged less than that or more.
i will be changing to the new gp clinic just across the road from this lot when it opens in july so lets hope they can do better than 72 dolalrs to just get a prescription
Boerwar
Hopefully there will be something announced during budget re mental health
Ahh Britteny:
[
David_SpeersDavid Speers
ADFA Commandant stood aside, but alleged sex offender(s) continue their work/studies.
4 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]
[Why is this sort of behaviour taking place in the Defence Force and why does it seem difficult to stamp it out?]
is there two many enlisted people on the one ship and dont they have to do then
It will be interesting to see how the journos spin the presser. I would rate it as 9/10 for Mr Smith and Mr Houston.
Oh, oh. Mr Spiers thinks he has found a couple of contradictions. Mr Spiers says there is a contradiction that Mr Kafer has been ordered to go on leave while the young male cadets will not be ordered to go on leave.
Trust SkyNews to bugger it up.
i really dont think the general public are interested in mental health unfortunatley most people still see it as
” well get over it”, syndrome
victoria
yep.
Stephen Smith is a class act. Can you imagine Tony Abboot hanging round for 60 minutes of questions? Much less being clear and not contradicting himself.
Did anyone ask: “have you spoken to the Prime Minister?”
Roxon has failed to shift public mental health funding from who can already afford it to those who can’t. She identified this problem as Shadow in 2006-7 but ahs failed to rectify it in the last 4 years as Minister.
Ask her how much mental health funding per capita gets spent in low-socioeconomic areas. The answer is almost none. it all goes into the North Shore of Sydney and the Leafy Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. It basically funds pre-existing clients of pre-exisitng psychologists- all who were once hapily paying for the service themselves. No new practices have been set up. No new folk are getting care for the first time.
Meanwhile in th Wild West:
[
WAtodayWAtoday
Aboriginal man Kevin Spratt was handled roughly by police while suffering from a dislocated shoulder, CCC hears http://bit.ly/eQ23OL
1 minute agoFavoriteRetweetReply
[In particular, Ms Roxon has, to date, missed addressing effectively mental health.]
As I have seen her say before Boer — it is all a matter of steps.
Mental health advocates are right when they say it is an area that has been largely ignored for a long time. HOWEVER, and what other areas expense do you want the funding to come from?
From what I can ascertain, the whole reform process is about building foundations that can readily and effectively be built upon. Mental health is part of that, but unless the primary health care issues are resolved, the band-aid reforms will only be stop-gap for mental health, and will lead to people falling through the cracks.
All these issues take time. We have become so accustomed to instant gratification that we expect miracles are the norm.
Sorry Boer — I understand what you and others want, but I also think we have to be a bit patient (no pun intended) because this is a big overhaul. Otherwise, 5 years from now, the system will be worse and mental health (and research) will be left behind even further than before!
may have misunderstood the ess, question just read the head and a few lines and though crickey meant the pollution tax
Cn you imagine if the CFMEU pulled such a stunt ?
http://www.watoday.com.au/wa-news/wa-police-want-pay-rise-before-june-20110411-1da8l.html
Mungo… ouch.
http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/55676.html
[abcthedrumThe Drum
Tim Wilson: Trademark rights to extinguish plain packaging bill? http://bit.ly/gVPSG7
2 minutes agoFavoriteRetweetReply]
[Ask her how much mental health funding per capita gets spent in low-socioeconomic areas. The answer is almost none. it all goes into the North Shore of Sydney and the Leafy Eastern suburbs of Melbourne.]
Sorry bluegreen — sweeping generalisations.
I have family in the outer west. Some have needed mental health assistance. They got it. Straight away. No question of expense or averages. All covered.
One also has to ask “where are the facilites located?”
Mr Ghaddafi has agreed to an immediate cease fire negotiated by the OAU.
But the rebs don’t want it and have refused to agree to it.
To recap: The Libyan Half-Arsed War of 1973 was started to protect civilians. The Broad Coalition jumped in, not to protect civilians, but to engineer regime change.
Now Mr Ghaddafi has agreed to a ceasefire, but the rebs will not agree to a ceasefire.
So now it is the REBS who are a threat to the lives of civilians.
What is the Broad Coalition going to do now? Start bombing the rebs?
jenauthor
We have conflicting views about Ms Roxon. You are very happy; I am less than happy. It is a matter of judgement. We will just have to agree to differ.
[2484
jenauthor
Posted Monday, April 11, 2011 at 4:01 pm | Permalink
Ask her how much mental health funding per capita gets spent in low-socioeconomic areas. The answer is almost none. it all goes into the North Shore of Sydney and the Leafy Eastern suburbs of Melbourne.
Sorry bluegreen — sweeping generalisations.
I have family in the outer west. Some have needed mental health assistance. They got it. Straight away. No question of expense or averages. All covered.
One also has to ask “where are the facilites located?”
]
WA’s Major Psychiatric Hospital is located inNedlands – in Perth’s Western Suburbs – smack bang in the middle of Julie Bishop’s Electorate – WA’s version of the North Shore.
Frank
Big Tobacco is happy to spend tens, if not hundreds of millions on legal actions. The Government would have known that and would have got advice from AGs.
Any legal action by Big Tobacco will be contested strongly by the Government.
The Government has other alternatives it might put into place if Big Tobacco is successful in its legal actions.
Frank @ 2479
Disgusting.
Tim Wilson is from IPA.
‘Nuff said.
my say
do you really think the polluter will just wear the cost, and won’t pass it onto the consumer, the GST shows that about 70% of the cost are passed on to the consumer.
As for the essential research question, they should also ask whether the respondant believe the are a high income earner.
People like Packer was not, he has trust and companies etc. Mr Cocodile did not think he should pay Australian tax either. the people who says the rich and polluter should pay the tax are really just saying I do not want to pay the Carbon tax and I should not have to
[2489
Boerwar
Posted Monday, April 11, 2011 at 4:10 pm | Permalink
Frank @ 2479
Disgusting.
]
There are other Psych units in other areas – but in the first instance people are admitted to Graylands.
Johnston defending Kafker – how surprisement.
[Johnston defending Kafker – how surprisement.]
And of course heavyweight Johnston would be in full possession of the facts.
[As one who thinks the Burqa is precisely a marker for cultures that oppress women, and is not part of the Islamic religeon, I support the ban. Those who oppose it can take comfort that they agree with Osama Bin Laden]
How very Socratic. I prefer to think of it as opposition to a law that is discriminatory in that it only applies to a certain ethno/religious group and is an affront to democracy and individual liberty. I bet if it was a law banning the eating of flesh and the drinking of blood in transubstantiation (pretty sick eh?), you’d have a different attitude.
The IPA flunky linked above says this:
[The government thinks stripping tobacco products of any branding will cut smoking rates as part of a basket of anti-tobacco measures, they’ve picked the colour (an allegedly offensive olive green), and the already garish health warnings are going to extend from just the lip to most of the front packet.
But amongst the consultation paper is also an admission of something the government has long denied – plain packaging could acquire the value of trademarks and expose taxpayers to a compensation bill from big tobacco.]
… but if the packaging measure isn’t gonna work, like the tobacco companies say it won’t, what the f**k are they worried about? The case might succeed, but the damages would be nil, wouldn’t they?
IF such damages were to be calculated at other than nil, they would not only signal how successful the measure was, but would only be calculated on lost profits. Fags are $15 a packet nowadays I believe, but the profit from each sold is WAY less than that. The government might even come out ahead, when you compare the cost of the damages to the savings on the national health bill.
And how are the companies going to prove that they’ve lost money? By saying “Look at the number of people who’ve given up smoking”? or “We expected 10,000 teenagers to take up fags, but only 9,000 did”? Apart from this being awfully embarrassing to the companies, couldn’t the government argue that smoking rates were going down anyway, so prove how much is the general decline in smoking numbers and which is because of the plain packagaing.
Lastly, who would be paid the damages? Not the retailers, who are the currently the ones claiming to be aggrieved. Big Tobacco would get the lot, leaving their customers to suffer.
This is the kind of fight the government should say “Bring it on” to.
middle man@2482
Mungo has encapsulated the situation with writing of his usual class, far above the modern run of journalism. On Gillard’s leadership problems, using the example of the carbon price:
Just by the way, MacCallum uses a Shakespearean quote which is often itself misquoted – “Comparisons are odorous” from ‘Much Ado About Nothing’. The quote is often misquoted as “Comparisons are odious”. Mungo is accurate, however. The Bard was playing with words, deliberately substituting the latter for the former – an existing aphorism at the time.
There’s something for your next dinner party.
Yeah. The oppressive bastards would mandate some pale, silly shadow of the proper ritual- say, eating bread and drinking wine instead.
Methinks the tobacco industry have been caught with their pants down.
Good.
JV. you go to some ca-razy dinner parties! 😉