State polling: WA, NSW, Victoria

Newspoll’s first quarter survey of 827 respondents in Western Australia shows the Coalition government maintaining its commanding position, even if it has failed to pick up any further in the wake of Labor’s leadership ructions in January. Labor’s primary vote has actually picked up two points from the record low of 29 per cent in the last quarter of last year, with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 49 per cent and 13 per cent respectively. The Coalition’s two-party lead has edged down from 58-42 to 57-43. Colin Barnett’s personal ratings are much as they were before: approval down a point to 54 per cent, disapproval down two to 33 per cent. Eric Ripper’s ratings have reached a new low following Ben Wyatt’s abortive leadership challenge, although his decline has in fact been quite modest: approval down two to 31 per cent, disapproval up one to 44 per cent. Ripper has actually managed to make ground on Colin Barnett as preferred premier, although the latter maintains an enormous lead of 56-17 compared with 60-16 last time. Full tables courtesy of GhostWhoVotes.

In other state polling news, Roy Morgan has conducted two micro-polls for New South Wales and Victoria which do little more than confirm the fairly obvious point that voters do not feel inclined to turn out brand new governments. The first thing to be noted is that the sample sizes of 345 and 273 entail huge margins of error of between 5 and 6 per cent. If the results still interest you, the New South Wales poll at least offers the novelty of a Coalition two-party vote with a seven in front of it (70.5-29.5) and a Labor primary vote in the teens (19 per cent). The Coalition primary vote is 56.5 per cent, with the Greens on 13 per cent. The Victorian poll has the Coalition leading 57-43 on two-party preferred from primary votes of 48 per cent for the Coalition, 31 per cent for Labor and 11.5 per cent for the Greens.

The polls also offer the first personal ratings for the new Labor Opposition Leaders, and while these might have a certain interest the sample sizes and don’t know ratings are such that there’s not really much for them to measure. In New South Wales, John Robertson has 18.5 per cent approval and 22.5 per cent disapproval, with 59 per cent can’t say. Barry O’Farrell has 54.5 per cent approval and 10 per cent disapproval with 33.5 per cent can’t say. O’Farrell’s lead as preferred premier is as big as it gets: 69.5 per cent to 7 per cent. In Victoria, Daniel Andrews has 25 per cent approval, 26.5 per cent disapproval and48.5 per cent can’t say. Ted Baillieu has an approval rating of 50.5 per cent and 23 per cent disapproval with 26.5 per cent can’t say, and leads as preferred premier 60 per cent to 14 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics. View all posts by William Bowe