Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Newspoll has conducted its usual fortnighly poll from a normal sample of 1151, but for some reason The Australian only provides results for preferred Labor leader. This offers yet more evidence that Julia Gillard is now less popular than Kevin Rudd, with the former favoured by 29 per cent against 36 per cent for the latter, with 10 per cent opting for Wayne Swan. The Australian’s report leads with the news that “only one in 10 voters back Wayne Swan as their preferred Labor leader”, which hardly comes as a surprise. Swan’s inclusion in the mix distinguishes the poll from previous Newspoll efforts six weeks ago and early last year, as does a six point hike in the undecided rating from 19 per cent to 25 per cent.

Today also saw the weekly Essential Research poll, which had Labor slipping another point on two-party preferred to trail 54-46. The Coalition is up a point on the primary vote to 47 per cent, with Labor and the Greens steady on 35 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. Contra Nielsen, the poll finds a slight increase in support for the carbon tax, with support up five points on a fortnight ago to 39 per cent and opposition down two to 49 per cent. If “the money paid by big polluting industries was used to compensate low and middle income earners and small businesses for increased prices”, support is 51 per cent (down three points) and opposition 33 per cent (up three points). Support for the National Broadband Network has increased since a dip in February, up six points to 54 per cent with opposition down three to 28 per cent. There are also two questions on Israel-Palestine which do not to my mind prove terribly illuminating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,311 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. William,

    For what it is worth, you are part of the problem. Some of your responses have been less than moderate.

    I am defending everyone here!

  2. [ltep
    Posted Thursday, April 21, 2011 at 3:40 pm | Permalink

    Isobel Redmond has demanded an explanation be provided for Mr Finnigan’s resignation.]

    Clever. It is a fair enough question.

  3. Bushfire Bill:
    The way you write about Australians is how we like to think about Americans. We like to look down our nose at Americans, regarding them as uneducated, unable to find any country other than their own on a map, arrogant and insufferable travellers. Maybe we do need to have it pointed out to us that we’re seen in pretty much the same light by countries in our region. Outside our region we’re more likely to be referred to as: “Who? Austria?”

    But we’ll all take solace from our media that keep telling us we punch above our weight. It’s Olympic Games time again soon so if we’re lucky we’ll get to hear it nightly.

  4. they show that aust story lots of times i have seen it at various times all week
    accidently must add i dont have the tv on through the day
    unless i feel like a break the head of the house cocker spaniel want to sit on my knee

    and david i type quicker than my brain and my eyes dont see mistakes till its to late lol

  5. @David@bigpond

    [cuppa labour market reform has always been ingrained in Liberal policy and thinking and as far as it remains fair it does help with improving productivity. Both Hawke and Keating understood this.

    Howard took reform too far with Work Choices and I think it will be a long time before any government tries to take us that far right again.]

    Workchoices, or the fundamental elements of it, – moving away from the basis of the old conciliation and arbitration powers to a system of direct regulation system under the corporations power, has been on the liberal agenda from the year dot.

    It was no surprise that it would be introduced by the Howard Govt when they could, we found some interesting research papers from the Reith WR minister eara promoting the corporations power regulation of IR. Of course that had all been informed by the HR Nicholls society/IPA/think tank style work from the 1980s and earlier before advocating the change.

    [I would argue FWA has taken us a little too far back the other way but only time will tell on that. At present economic conditions are likely restraining unions on testing matters as much as they would like. Watch the mining sector to see how things pan out over the next few years.]

    Well, the Howard legacy is that the workchoices is still with us and that FWA or the Fair Work Act cannot undo what Howard did. We are now in this corporations power model and the only changes to WC have been at the margins, e.g. notice periods, minimum standards, safeguards..

    We still have, wages set by the AFPC process and not by the wage case model
    Unfair dismissal limits (>15 employees) – now that was a employers wet dream from 1993 onwards
    reduced role of awards
    the powers/operation of the ABCC
    all the restrictions on industrial action/strike pay…

    And unlike the old system, a new Government can come in and change/remove all the legislated minimums…Abott does not need to intoduce a whole lot of WC style reforms, few simple changes and we are back in 2006.

    So at the moment we have a whole new playing field and the Unions, employers and Govt are all trying to see what can be done in the system.

  6. Fiz

    I used to have that attitude towards Americans, comfortable in the knowledge that we Aussies were so much more switched on. Of course, the joke is in me!

  7. [nappin,

    Everytime Frank is gone there is a barrage of commentary. Some like Wal Kolla actually tried to provoke frank. Pollies are fair game but the posters are not.

    The entire blog would do well to remember that while we don’t have to agree with each other, being online and anonymous does not give us the right to bag fellow posters.

    While I don’t expect anyone here to be angels, I do expect as a fellow poster a modicum of respect that would normally be afforded if we face-to-face.

    I love the blog, love being on here but I get tired of the personal attacks and have actually left the site a few times because it all gets a bit obnoxious.

    I don’t expect a degree of civility is too much to ask for.]

    To summarize, play the ball, not the man.

  8. ltep@2156

    Isobel Redmond has demanded an explanation be provided for Mr Finnigan’s resignation.

    What has Mr Fingersin done? Apart from this litany of political offences, that is:

    The 38-year-old former assistant secretary of the Right-aligned Shop Distributive and Allied Employees’ Association, which holds sway in SA Labor, was elected unopposed in February as the government’s leader in the upper house.

    He is closely involved with several powerful members of the so-called hard Catholic Right of the state ALP.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/south-australian-minister-quits-amid-internal-labor-unrest/story-e6frgczx-1226042862901

  9. [Therefore, much as I think good on you, Therese Rein, I also think making money off the back of the unemployed, by outsourcing Commonwealth EMPLOYMENT Services, and renaming the distribution of welfare as Centrelink, is costing the govt dearly.]

    HUH? Wow, Kezza2 Are you ever behind the times!

    Therese Rein sold her Australian business before the 2007 election while the PM was still John Howard! In fact, the contracts she won (under the new Howard Gov regime) were for her company’s specialist work in disabled re/training for work, and as an advocate for the creation of workplaces which catered for and welcomed disabled & disadvantaged employees – field in which she had few specialist competitors.

    [Work Directions Australia quickly established a reputation for inspiring people who were cut off from work due to disability, illness or injury, by assisting them to address the physical and psychological aspects of their condition and helping them back to work.]

    http://www.ingeus.com.au/pages/about_ingeus/70/our_history.html

    The contracts she recently won were let by the UK government … that’s UK TORY government … again, because her company specialises in equipping the disadvantaged, especially those with disabilities and finding them work – inspired by her own RAAF navigator father’s retraining (as an aeronautical engineer) his return to work and sport as a paralympian, following severe spinal chord damage in a plane crash. Her company also operates in many European countries and in Korea. http://www.ingeus.com.au/pages/global_impact/0/global_impact.html

  10. goodness can it be any worse?
    THEBURGERMAN | 43 seconds ago
    [Tonight on #TheNation: Tom Switzer, John Della Bosca, Bronwyn Bishop and Stephen Jones.]

  11. @Victoria

    At first I thought that was the Vic State budget!, given the rumors and misinformation goign around anything is possible.

  12. [The MP is charged with one aggravated count of possessing child pornography, a second count of possession of child pornography and two counts of taking steps to obtain child pornography, and has been released on police bail. ]

    What the different between an aggravated account and a non-aggravated account?

  13. How on earth can the chair of the national broadcaster write partisan political stuff like this on a taxpapyer funded website?

    [We can also press our political parties to campaign for policies which improve the competitiveness of the Australian economy, especially against the backdrop of an appreciating currency and global warning signs. We need to bring the budget back, not only to cash, but to structural balance. All new taxes must be avoided and our complex tax laws should be reformed to deliver lower tax rates across the board. Our trade practices laws which tend to over represent consumers, need to more properly balance the real world of scale and international competition. We also need to rethink IR flexibility and its affect on business costs. Finally, well intentioned policies to the contrary, we must maintain our comparative advantage in cheap energy.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/76420.html

  14. Sir Humphrey

    Actually the Vic State budget should be interesting. Ted has been hiding away. The budget maybe his coming out party!

  15. Madcyril

    It was a pretty obvious reply. But the govt has beaten them because its immediately before a long weekend and all the news will be about the AS fires.

  16. @madcyril

    Interesting, as it seems they are cutting into recurrent spending, we usually manage these things here pretty well here (the Govt has been talking about similiar targets accross the departments), usually this is acheived by fewer grants, programs and so on, rarely does it mean cuts in staff – that only happens when there is no fat left to cut.

  17. SK
    This quote – from William James might be worth your consideration too:

    “We are all ready to be savage in some cause. The difference between a good man and a bad one is the choice of the cause.”

  18. Dictionary definition

    [ag·gra·vat·ed

    adjective?/?agr??v?tid/?

    1. (of an offense) Made more serious by attendant circumstances (such as frame of mind)
    * – aggravated burglary

    2. (of a penalty) Made more severe in recognition of the seriousness of an offense
    * – aggravated damages]

    So its one bad case and one terrible one.

  19. [What the different between an aggravated account and a non-aggravated account?]

    I think it relates to the age of the ‘victim’, if they are under a certain age it qualifies as an aggravated offence. In this case, I think the age is 14.

  20. [
    Actually the Vic State budget should be interesting. Ted has been hiding away. The budget maybe his coming out party!
    ]

    vic

    I noticed that even Andrew Bolt was calling it the Peter Ryan Government today, although he’s never been much of a Red Ted fan

  21. cuppa this is one of those opinions where I can’t post a link in support but I suspect the employment rate is clouding problems in many sectors of the economy and things are tougher than they seem. Probably the best indication of this is given by the comments Wayne Swan is making in the lead up to the budget. He is giving strong signals that revenue from sectors outside mining is likely to be substantially lower than indicated in the November budget review.

    The budget in a few weeks will be as important as a guide to how things are/have been as it is in setting things for the future.

    The unions are likely aware of this.

  22. BG@ 2172: according to an explanation I heard yesterday, “aggravated” indicates in involves more than one person or distribution of material to others.

    ltep: one of the things the Libs were saying yesterday was that Isobel Redmond send the word around to all her pollies that they were all to NO COMMENT on this issue and not to buy into it one way or another. Interesting that she herself has now changed her mind, as have a couple of her colleagues who have also decided to weigh into it today.

    Scumbags.

  23. The relevant part of the Act

    [63A—Possession of child pornography

    (1) A person who—

    (a) is in possession of child pornography knowing of its pornographic nature; or

    (b) intending to obtain access to child pornography, obtains access to child pornography or takes a step towards obtaining access to child pornography,

    is guilty of an offence.

    Maximum penalty:

    (a) for a first offence—

    (i) if it is a basic offence—imprisonment for 5 years;

    (ii) if it is an aggravated offence—imprisonment for 7 years;

    (b) for a subsequent offence—

    (i) if it is a basic offence—imprisonment for 7 years;

    (ii) if it is an aggravated offence—imprisonment for 10 years.

    (2) It is a defence to a charge of an offence against subsection (1) to prove that the material to which the charge relates came into the defendant’s possession unsolicited and that the defendant, as soon as he or she became aware of the material and its pornographic nature, took reasonable steps to get rid of it.

    (3) In determining whether an offence against subsection (1) is a first or subsequent offence, a court must treat a previous offence involving child pornography against any provision of this Division, or a corresponding previous enactment, as a previous offence]

  24. @victoria

    Just between you and me and the rest of PB, there had better be someting in the Ted budget for his and the rest of the Vic Govt sake. All efforts have been to election promises but those were not exactly a forward agenda for Govt (think Bracks 1999). This Govt is…..a bit light on policy direction at the moment and a budget that just says Labor Bad, all Labor programs bad and should be cut, and then has nothing else to offer will not last long.

  25. bluegreen

    What the different between an aggravated account and a non-aggravated account?

    An aggravated account is one that is overdrawn. 😀

    An ‘aggravated count’ is a charge for an alleged offence that is made more serious than standard by its circumstances.

  26. [The relevant part of the Act]

    Yes, and you need to also look at s 5AA

    [Subject to this section, an aggravated offence is an offence committed in the following circumstances:


    (e) the offender committed the offence knowing that the victim of the offence was, at the time of the offence—

    (i) in the case of an offence against Part 3 Division 11A—under the age of 14 years;]

  27. OzPol Tragic

    Not behind the times old son – making a philosophical point.
    Nothing to do with Rein’s prior business in Australia, but to do with employment service providers in general. It does not matter which government is in power at the time.

    The point still stands: these providers are paid money to get people into work – they need to cover overheads etc, hence when they bid for a contract, all of these considerations plus PROFIT has to be factored in. We have perfectly good centrelink offices to do this. Why make money off the back of the unemployed??

    And I think you’ll find Therese Rein established her business during the 80s.

  28. [Where is the victim in these charges? I thought they were just charges of possessing child pornography?]

    The victim would be the person in the pornography I’d imagine. There’s a whole range of other factors which might make it an aggravated charge, but the one I quoted would probably be the easiest for the prosecution to prove.

  29. VP

    It means that the children in the pornography were clearly under 14. It could also, but less likely to, mean that he knew the victim.

    I am surprised that the media havent picked this up.

  30. It would be a deeply emabrrasing show trial. It is the sort of case a defendant would rather plead guilty to that go to trial.

  31. Well I’ve learnt something – not that I practice in the area any more. I didn’t know there was a ‘victim’ in possession of pornography offences. It must be new, if so. If that extends to possession of images not taken by the offender, but just downloaded, with the subject unknown, I’m not sure what that element would mean or how it would be proven.

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