Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan face-to-face poll, conducted last weekend from 942 respondents (released a day earlier than usual for some reason), is somewhat better for Labor than last week’s shocker. Labor’s primary vote is up two points to 36 per cent, the Coalition’s is down 3.5 per cent to 44.5 per cent and the Greens are up two to 13 per cent. On the two-party measure which allocates preferences according to the result of the previous election, the Coalition lead has narrowed from 54.5-45.5 to 51.5-48.5. However, a gap has re-opened between this figure and the result from respondent-allocated preferences, which has only gone from 54.5-45.5 to 53.5-46.5.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,051 comments on “Morgan: 51.5-48.5 to Coalition”

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  1. Frank Calabrese

    Well it could mean a couple of things

    Not wanting to rock the coalition boat. Remember disunity is death
    Or Turnbull is Potential leader again and therefore not good for him to be maligned.

  3. [1001

    victoria

    Posted Friday, May 20, 2011 at 11:28 pm | Permalink

    Frank Calabrese

    Well it could mean a couple of things

    Not wanting to rock the coalition boat. Remember disunity is death
    Or Turnbull is Potential leader again and therefore not good for him to be maligned.
    ]

    no – the callers on 2GB were ATTACKING Turnbull.

  8. [1005

    Gusface

    Posted Friday, May 20, 2011 at 11:31 pm | Permalink

    frank

    just went thru the top ten blogs

    something is a happening

    fibs aint even playing on twitter
    ]

    Yep

    1st July is looming large.

    They’ve given up

  9. Frank Calabrese

    Yes I understand that the callers were attacking Turnbull, but didnt you say that the Host was being cautious about the backlash?

  13. [victoria

    Posted Friday, May 20, 2011 at 11:32 pm | Permalink

    Frank Calabrese

    Yes I understand that the callers were attacking Turnbull, but didnt you say that the Host was being cautious about the backlash?
    ]

    as in the host is scared of being sued by Turnbull.

  15. Gus:

    In the event the Lib foot soldiers are lying low, the Liberals have had a bad couple of days with nothing for them to crow about.

  17. Frank Calabrese

    I believe the most logical explanation is that Turnbull has unsettled the Fib supporters, and they are lying low

  21. confessions

    You and I seem to be in agreement. Turnbull has thrown a spanner in the works, and they are not sure what may be next.

  22. [

    GhostWhoVotesGhostWhoVotes

    Sorry, I should have said that those #Galaxy figures are QLD Federal, not national. #auspol

    25 seconds agoFavoriteRetweetReply]

    Why are Galaxy doing a federal poll for a single state ?

  25. [To be blunt, he looks more Prime Ministerial than she does]

    watched the foot ball sorry Victoria but i am having an awful tipping year and got one right tonight, sorry two points is hard.

    i wasnt going to say a word , but read dio comment and had to say something.
    dio frankly we see nothing much of Rudd, really i know your a busy doctor and dont have time for tv ect but we may see him once a week, so how he could look more pm than julia is a mystery to me, we see her on abc at least three times a day, now i know you wouldn’t be aware of this as you are so busy and only see those in your cloistered world of prfessional people.

    i doubt people who work even see kev once a week now he used to pop on the news months ago a lot but now he is seen as often as any other fm is seen very little

  26. You’ve got to expect that Rudd will be more popular than Gillard in his home state, but I suppose this poll will prompt the inevitable Rudd bashathon from Frank and a few others. 😉

  27. [evan14

    Posted Friday, May 20, 2011 at 11:42 pm | Permalink

    You’ve got to expect that Rudd will be more popular than Gillard in his home state, but I suppose this poll will prompt the inevitable Rudd bashathon from Frank and a few others.
    ]
    no it proves that Quincelanders are a bunch of parochial hicks – just like WA were when Beazley was leader.

  28. And yes, Rudd has a high profile, and he does a good job of publicising his Foreign Ministerial duties – a few other ministers ought to follow his example, and then the government might be in better shape politically.

  29. evan14 @ 1026

    Cut it out.

    Oh, and by the way, you never answered my question about whether you are an ALP member. I would still like to know.

  31. Frank, now you’re denigrating Queenslanders – very classy of you!
    The way things are going, Labor will be left with 1 seat in QLD after the next election, and you know which one that is. 😀

  33. The Galaxy poll says to me that if there were to be a leadership spill in the Libs, the LNPers would back Abbott. Therefore I reckon Abbott would win the lkeadership again.

    Whatever Turnbull’s up to, I hope he has a Plan B!

  35. 1016

    of course they would not many qlders leave qld and hardly know where to find the border.

    when i lived there for a while some ask me why i wasnt black,. i explained we where not well thats strange someone said my mum told me all tasmania’s where coloured.

    true story, of course that was 1968, BUT. naturally they would vote for their man.
    and now they dont even like Anna who saved them from the flood and high winds.

    sorry but i will never be able to work that lot out. seems as though they are a place unto them selves

  38. [Posted Friday, May 20, 2011 at 11:46 pm | Permalink
    evan

    mumma sees kev every nite on quinceland tv

    the poll is sorta skewed]

    i wonder why do they seek him there do they seek him everywhere for a photo shoot or does he seek them there for same.

    we never see him so may be thats why , why pick qld is it a reminder to mt. not to eventhink about it. other wise why bother who cares at this stagel

    i wonder what polster charge for their time.

  39. Gusface
    Posted Friday, May 20, 2011 at 11:48 pm | Permalink

    [no need for that, bemused]
    Is not the personal political?

  43. yes thats what i mean of it was the the most popular tasmanian who had been pm’
    i would say they say the same.

    but well we dont have a most popular tasmanian except may be bob.
    we should ask that here and see what happens lol

    night

  44. [1040

    Gusface

    Posted Friday, May 20, 2011 at 11:52 pm | Permalink

    my say

    mumma is 88

    she lives near RU

    most of her msm take is kev

    the qld media loves him

    I suggest to add a grain of salt to this poll
    ]

    just like the WA Media loved KIm Beazley as leader.

    Both WA and Quinceland are praochial hicks – fact of life, why do you thinkBarnett is playing the Royalties Card ?

  47. The OO carried the story about Turnbull blogging about the coalition’s AGW price hours ago. The story is now at the ABC online, and has been for the past hour. The ABC online seems to lift an awful lot of its stories from the OO, from what I’ve seen.

  49. Well, read the stuff of the other thread. It must have been highly amusing listening to MM trying to shut down discontent with Turnbull.
    Can’t stay up
    Still trying to catch up on lost sleep.
    Cheers everyone

  50. Big game at Etihad tonight. Both sides played really well and the Blues just fell short. They had plenty of opps to win the game but Geelong’s experience and steadiness just won the day.

    Carlton have plenty of up side as the season progresses as their young stars gain experience and confidence. The return of Kreuzer and Henderson will make a huge difference for the Blues. Geelong had nearly all their stars playing well. So, I don’t see as much improvement for them come September.

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