Bernard Keane at Crikey reports the latest Essential Research poll has the Coalition’s lead on two-party preferred widening from 53-47 last week to 54-46. It also records a slump in Julia Gillard’s personal ratings, with approval down seven from a month ago to 34 per cent and disapproval up six to 54 per cent. Tony Abbott has also gone backwards: down four on approval to 38 per cent and up four on disapproval to 48 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-35 to 41-36. Otherwise:
The view that climate change is real and human-caused has softened since May. Just 50% of voters believe it is happening and is caused by humans, while 39% believe climate change is just a normal fluctuation in the climate; those figures were 52-36% in May, but 45-36% in December. Liberal voters are much more likely to not believe in human-caused climate change — 55% of them think it is purely natural and only 34% think human cause it, while 83% of Green voters and 64% of Labor voters think it is caused by humans. Of those who believe climate change is caused by humans, 48% are “somewhat confident” it can be averted if we take action now, and 13% are very confident, but 36% are only a little or not at all confident we can stop it even if we act now. Support for the government’s proposal to price carbon remains flat, with support unchanged at 38% and opposition up 1 point at 49%. Awareness of the government’s proposal to send asylum seekers to Malaysia is relatively high, with 27% of voters saying they know a lot about it and 31% saying they know “something about” it, while 38% say they know little or nothing about it. Feelings are finely balanced, with 40% saying they support it and 39% opposing it. Greens voters object most strongly (51%) and Labor voters are its strongest supporters (47%).
I should have the full report for you shortly.
UPDATE: Full report here. There is in fact no change at all on the primary vote figures: Coalition 46 per cent, Labor 34 per cent, Greens 12 per cent.
Gary,
“It’s amazing how we look at one poll and believe everything it says.”
Maybe it something to do with who posted the poll?
Glen, as Frank says, spare us your lame analysis. Reading your dot matrix lines here for a number of years I think we all know your type too well.
You are inept in formulating an argument or articulating a reasonable position on any policy that matters, you have a deep and almost religious attraction to the most horrid elements within right wing politics, but you protest and hide behind a thin vale of “but I’m not a Liberal supporter”, and you lack any political, historical or social insight other than at a very superficial level, with simple msm/Op fed slogans.
It’s ok though – supporting your hero Tone shouldn’t be an embarrassed, he is a student of your champion Howard after all. Embrace it mate, it’s your true self 😉
I predicted you would be on here laughing and boasting over this poll sometime back evan. Just the type of supporter Labor needs.
Frank…
Prime Minister Mathieson? LOL
[SpaceKidette Space Kidette
And you say Roxon has been hypocritical. @JulieBishopMP you Big Tobacco lover, you! It happened in 2005 – 6yrs ago! #lateline
SpaceKidette Space Kidette
Admit it @JulieBishopMP you accept Big Tobacco donations because the Coalition coffers are bare. #lateline
2 minutes ago Favorite Reply Delete
]
And I thought Jeremiah was a bull-frog!
Gary
This poll can be put on the end of Possum’s trend graph, to see what it says, and then to decide whether to believe it:
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2011/06/05/new-trends-and-gender-shifts/
The Government’s in such a mess that even one of their better performing ministers has been caught out telling porkies.
Joe Ludwig is like a deer caught in t he headlights – what happens when a union hack and son of an even bigger union dinosaur gets put into a portfolio which he is plainly unsuited for.
vp
he is
🙂
[Maybe it something to do with who posted the poll?]
that does not compute.
Glen: turf out Abbott, replace him with Hockey or Bilson(I haven’t forgotten Bruce), and you guys have a mortgage on the next election.
As long as Abbott stays LOTO, Julia’s still got a faint chance of winning in 2013. 😉
New thread.
evan can’t contain himself. He thinks its Christmas. evan, take a look at QT tomorrow and see which party is sitting on the government benches and will be for at least 2 years to come. How many Newspolls is that again?
Gary
“And Labor will still be the government tomorrow, next week and next year so enjoy away old son.”
Oh i will, as im yet to be convinced like so many here that “its the long game”. Being in NSW this is like ground hog day with Labor Governments. The only difference being Gillard and the Fed ALP are in the news every night making things worse. At least Kristina Keneally gave us one or two breaks a week from her face and incompetence on TV.
The Government’s best performing current minister: one certain Foreign Minister, who has conducted himself with dignity and honour since June 24 last year.
And to think that Gillard’s supporters in the caucus have gloated about booting out Rudd if she wins the next election.
[Oh i will, as im yet to be convinced like so many here that “its the long game.]
Tell someone who cares.
[evan14
Posted Tuesday, June 14, 2011 at 10:56 pm | Permalink
The Government’s in such a mess that even one of their better performing ministers has been caught out telling porkies.
Joe Ludwig is like a deer caught in t he headlights – what happens when a union hack and son of an even bigger union dinosaur gets put into a portfolio which he is plainly unsuited for.
]
Is this why your hatred for Ludwig is for ?
[SIMON SANTOW: David Feeney, Mark Arbib, Bill Shorten, Bill Ludwig, Karl Bitar, Don Farrell – they’re hardly household names.
But these men are the factional kingmakers within the Australian Labor Party and they’re behind the installation of Julia Gillard as the nation’s first female Prime Minister.]
http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2010/s2935663.htm
Thought as much.
Gary: I wouldn’t count on this minority government lasting until 2013, I certainly wouldn’t count on Gillard staying as Labor leader until 2013.
I’d be worrying about Oakeshott especially if I was you.
Evan14,
What is apparent here is not that the govt is in trouble, but that the mass of media telling people they are, is starting to be believed, despite the govt. being in perfect working order.
It also says, we are still in a hung parliament.
I see the comedy relief has arrived. I’m off.
[Gary
Posted Tuesday, June 14, 2011 at 10:45 pm | Permalink
As reflected by the polls, I think the scare campaign over the carbon tax is working and that’s why the Government needs to sell its policies better and finalise its carbon tax compensation package asap.
This idea they haven’t sold it properly is BS to say the least. They’ve had this timetable from the word go and they’re following it. The details will be announced in a matter of a few weeks.]
If the ALP is selling its carbon tax and its timetable, as you say, how do you account for the polls?
Political tragics may be aware of the sell and the timetable, but in my experience not many others do.
SK, I didn’t mean you I might add.
[If the ALP is selling its carbon tax and its timetable, as you say, how do you account for the polls?]
It’s far easier to run a fear campaign than a positive campaign without the detail. Most people will come to understand it once it is put into practice.
[charlton
Posted Tuesday, June 14, 2011 at 11:02 pm | Permalink
Gary
Posted Tuesday, June 14, 2011 at 10:45 pm | Permalink
As reflected by the polls, I think the scare campaign over the carbon tax is working and that’s why the Government needs to sell its policies better and finalise its carbon tax compensation package asap.
This idea they haven’t sold it properly is BS to say the least. They’ve had this timetable from the word go and they’re following it. The details will be announced in a matter of a few weeks.
If the ALP is selling its carbon tax and its timetable, as you say, how do you account for the polls?
Political tragics may be aware of the sell and the timetable, but in my experience not many others do
]
The Live Export Trade.
Their ABC created a program urging the Govt to ban the Trade- The govt did by calling for a 6 month Ban. Their ABC then went into overdrive for thre poor downtrodden Farmer.
This Newspoll is the result.
Politics is almost always complicated!
This thread is dying hard, so I’m about to put it out of its misery.