Morgan phone poll: 60-40 to Coalition

The first poll of federal voting intention conducted since the carbon tax announcement finds the government’s carbon tax announcement bounce going in the wrong direction. A Roy Morgan phone poll of 1083 voters conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, it is in fact the worst result the government has recorded, with a Coalition two-party lead of 60-40 on the more generally reliable measure that allocates minor party preferences as per the previous election (although Morgan as usual headlines with the respondent-allocated result, which has it at 60.5-39.5). The Coalition’s primary vote is approaching double Labor’s – 52.5 per cent to 27.5 per cent – with the Greens on 10.5 per cent.

Morgan has also simultaneously published its latest face-to-face polling results, which actually show a slight improvement in Labor’s standing: primary vote up two points to 33.5 per cent, Coalition down one to 48 per cent, Greens steady on 11.5 per cent, Coalition two-party lead down from 56.5-43.5 to 54.5-45.5 (58.5-41.5 to 56-44 on the respondent-allocated measure). However, since this was conducted on the weekend and the carbon tax announcement was made on Sunday, this offers the government no consolation whatsoever when taken together with the phone poll.

UPDATE: Roy Morgan has published further results on the carbon tax, which add further to the government’s misery: 37 per cent support the government’s legislation, steady on six weeks ago, while opposition has risen five points to 58 per cent. Skepticism about climate change itself has scaled new heights: 37 per cent of “all people aged 14+” now believe concerns are exaggerated, which is up five points on six weeks ago and compares with just 13 per cent when the question was first asked in April 2006. Support for Tony Abbott’s policy of overturning the tax in government is up three points to 48 per cent and opposition is steady on 45 per cent. As in Morgan’s last such poll, some of the subsequent questions have a very strong whiff of push-polling about them.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,874 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 60-40 to Coalition”

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  2. Finns

    [Diog, how did Commodore Bananarama let you out of Fiji.]

    My kids were single-handedly destroying the tourist industry which is the heart of their economy.

  3. Shellbell

    [Bluey would have had no trouble picking a winner if Abbott’s offer (made on MTR to Bolt and his offsider) to debate the carbon price with the PM had been conditional on Bolt being the moderator or if Rudd’s kicking of the football came after trying a speculator over the shoulders of Justin Madden.

    Alas I think Bluey will be challenged to pick a winner.]

    Bluey is spending a sleepless night sorting through the dross. He reckons it is like being stuck in a kelp forest during a cyclone.

    A sad thought keeps going through his well-distributed brain: ‘When stunters win, we all lose.’

  5. If it is so questionable that the climate is changing then there is a huge opportunity for scientists to publish data to show that the earth is not warming. You would become instantly famous and get huge grants from industry and a denialist governments around the world. Even a couple of solid papers saying that climate change is not happening would guarantee you fossil fuel funded chairs at any leading University in US or UK.

    But for some reason the science just keeps on coming out and saying that the earth is warming.

  6. For those of you interested in what’s going on in Afganistan, this is worth a read.

    [Deutsche Welle
    Afghanistan | 15.07.2011
    A new Great Game is evolving in Afghanistan

    Afghanistan and Central Asia are abundant with natural resources worth billions. So far, they are largely untapped but the battle is raging for who will be able to exploit them in the 21st century.

    In the 19th century, it was the Russians and the British who wrestled for influence in Afghanistan and Central Asia in a highly-explosive endeavor known as the Great Game.

    Today, Afghanistan’s natural resources are estimated to be worth billions of dollars. The resources in the neighboring Central Asian states are thought to be worth even more – the cake is huge and as yet largely untouched.

    A Chinese state firm has won the rights to exploit a copper mine in eastern AfghanistanA Chinese state firm has won the rights to exploit a copper mine in eastern Afghanistan While the US and China want an especially large slice of it, neighboring states Iran, Pakistan, India and Russia all have their eyes on it as well. Most experts agree that a battle for natural resources is underway, alongside the war against terrorism.]

    http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,6573071,00.html

  7. [BK

    Posted Sunday, July 17, 2011 at 9:09 pm | Permalink

    Frank
    One can only wonder.
    ]

    Indeed – knowing when to turn up ready with a sign at a shopping centre when there has been little or no advanced publicity is strange to put it mildly.

  8. Bluey has been pipped by Bolt?

    I reckon Bolt’s stunts will be pseudo stunts, whereas Bluey’s are the real deal.

  9. [And anyway, the carbon tax in Australia will make no difference to the earth’s atmosphere and that’s been pubicly agreed to by the government’s own highly paid experts]
    That doesn’t matter. All the Government’s policy needs to be is better than the Opposition’s policy.

    Considering that the oppositions policy would cost at least $32 billion and at most $111 billion, the Government’s policy doesn’t have much to beat.

  10. [And anyway, the carbon tax in Australia will make no difference to the earth’s atmosphere and that’s been pubicly agreed to by the government’s own highly paid experts.]

    Really Helenk? Can you tell me where these ‘experts’ have said this ‘pubicly’?

  11. Meanwhile, back at the ranch, the Chinese have also been busy signing deals, while USA is sliding into bankruptcy:

    [Iran and China sign $4b in deals, (AFP Agencies), 17 July 2011

    TEHERAN — Iran and China on Saturday signed a series of agreements worth $4 billion (€2.8 billion) for infrastructure projects as part of a broader bid to boost trade volume between the two nations, Iranian state media reported.

    As part of a $500 million (€354 million) deal, China agreed to provide Iran with 60 energy recovery incinerators, which are to be installed within a year in major cities and in Iran’s northern tourism hub along the Caspian sea.

    The bilateral agreements span cooperation in water, mining, energy and industrial sectors. China also pledged to boosts its imports of Iranian mineral products, state TV reported.

    “China is now the leading economic partner of Iran and there are plans for increasing last year’s trade volume of $30 billion to $100 billion in the future,” Iranian vice-president Mohammad Javad Mohammadi-Zadeh told state television.

    The agreements were signed during a visit by He Guoqiang, a senior executive of the Chinese Communist Party, who heads a delegation visiting Iran. He was received by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

    “Bilateral trade will reach $40 billion (€28 billion) this year,” the Chinese ambassador to Teheran told IRNA recently.

    China and Iran have become major economic partners in recent years, partly thanks to the withdrawal of Western companies in line with sanctions against the Islamic republic over its contentious nuclear drive.]

  12. This little black duck@2698

    If Roo’s Oz empire is to be “modified” will they go for print or TV or both?

    Its all out of his hands.

    If the Brits force dis-investment it will flow here where his saturation of the print media is huge as is his reach via Foxtel.

    If the yanks are able the find evidence of hacking its goodnight the fox.

    But his heydays are now gone. Everyone knows he will say anything to just make this all go away, but it won’t this time. People know he will wiggle out of anything other than being totally forced out.

    The US investors particularly will sack him as quickly as he has sacked others, but if they do so US$15 Billion in Newscorp debt becomes payable immediately. But Newscorp has US $12 Billion in cash anyway.

    I thought this would come when he passed on. What is happening now is a dozen christmas’ on a stick.

  13. NOTW scandel may extend to the Scottish Parliament…

    [SNP pressed over Murdoch links

    Last updated 17 Jul 2011 – 11:55 am

    Labour is urging the SNP to answer 25 questions about its links with the company at the centre of the News of the World hacking scandal.

    The party has published the list of questions, including asking when First Minister Alex Salmond last met with News International chairman James Murdoch, as well as how much the SNP has spent on advertising with the company in the past four years.]

    http://breakingnews.heraldscotland.com/breaking-news/?mode=article&site=hs&id=N0538181310820467599A

  14. confessions

    [Bluey has been pipped by Bolt?

    I reckon Bolt’s stunts will be pseudo stunts, whereas Bluey’s are the real deal.]

    Bluey thanks you for this endorsement. He feels that his decision never, but never, to switch onto Mr Bolt’s show has been vindicated.

    OTOH, Bluey is tickled psychedelic blue to think that some poor staffer on Mr Bolt’s show has to comb through Bludger Stunt Watch to find some good material.

  16. Leroy
    .
    [For those of you interested in what’s going on in Afganistan, this is worth a read]

    Well as the mayor of Kabul lost his bro last week I guess we are still winning. snigger snigger.

  17. [Count me in. I’ve replied at length to two of his anti-Gillard rants (last one at 1607) and he hasn’t responded. Seems like troll territory.

    At least Glen will usually respond even if his reply doesn’t often shed much further light.]

    Two Piece rushed in this afternoon with comments seemingly designed to generate an emotional response. I got blasted for daring to suggest he be ignored. I ignored the rant at me. He received a couple of small replies then left shortly thereafter when no more responses were forthcoming. I don’t wish to discourage anyone from Bludgers but it seemed Two Piece had no interest if people weren’t going to react. Glen likes to stir the pot but there’s the element of political knowledge which I appreciate.

    My favourite non-lefty is Dio, but he’s from Adelaide so you’ve gotta keep an eye on him…;lol;

  19. [My favourite non-lefty is Dio, but he’s from Adelaide so you’ve gotta keep an eye on him…;lol;]

    drake, when you sit on the fence all of the times, you can tell which is left or right. it falls the same way. that’s Diog.

  22. heads or tails the dirty little digger from Delaware had a premonition that he was deep in the shit in the US and looking down the barrel of some huge fines under the FCPA.

    But what better way to reduce the exposure than to get someone to lobby the US government to weaken the FCAP laws and water down the fines.

    You guessed it, give the Chamber of commerce a few bucks and send em in to bat for you. The bar steward has no shame.

    [Rupert Murdoch donated $1m to a pro-business lobby in the US months before the group launched a high-profile campaign to alter the anti-bribery law – the same law that could potentially be brought to bear against News Corporation over the phone-hacking scandal.

    News Corporation contributed $1m to the US Chamber of Commerce last summer. In October the chamber put forward a six-point programme for amending the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, or FCPA, a law that punishes US-based companies for engaging in the bribery of foreign officials.

    Progressive groups in the US have speculated that there is no coincidence in the contemporaneous timing of the Murdoch donation and the launch of the chamber’s FCPA campaign, which they claim is designed to weaken the anti-bribery legislation. “The timing certainly raises questions about who is bankrolling this campaign – if it’s not News Corporation who is it?” said Joshua Dorner of the Centre for American Progress action fund.]

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/jul/14/hacking-murdoch-paid-us-lobbyists

  23. drake
    Posted Sunday, July 17, 2011 at 9:23 pm | Permalink

    Glen likes to stir the pot but there’s the element of political knowledge which I appreciate.

    Glen is more into *political opinion* then fact, which results in him running away when challenged to substantiate his claims.

    Isn’t is so glen ?

  24. helenk@2694

    Anyone who doesn’t know that many scientists today are grant driven is extremely naive. And there have been many many grants going for global warming effects on anything and everything. Anyone who thinks that the CSIRO are independent is also extremely naive. Remember how the Rudd government annouced as soon as it was elected that all CSIRO press releases had to be approved by the politicians to fit the government’s ethos.

    You believe 8000 scientists working in separate nations in different facilities have arrived at the conclusions – with 98% of them agreeing on man-made global warming – because they have doctored their results to suit the governments that fund them. Fair enough.

    It only remains to ask which eminent climate scientists you believe – Professor Monckton, Professor Carter; Professor Plimer; or Professor Bolt?

  25. [And anyway, the carbon tax in Australia will make no difference to the earth’s atmosphere]

    It doesn’t have to. All it has to do is make a difference to Australia’s GHGEs.

  28. helenk

    [And anyway, the carbon tax in Australia will make no difference to the earth’s atmosphere and that’s been pubicly agreed to by the government’s own highly paid experts.]

    You appear to have swallowed the Coalition’s run of hypocrite phony stunts on this one. The are constantly criticising the Government for wanting to spend billions on not making any difference.

    But they are proposing to spend billions on exactly the same emissions-reduction target. Spot he hypocrisy stunt?

    Anyhoo, if you are seriously concerned about AGW, I suggest you have a chat with Mr Abbott. His Direct Action Plan is a crock. It is under-costed by $7 billion. But he has capped it. Large slabs of it will not work well or at all, according to sundry ignorant economists, arborists and soil scientists. Yet Mr Abbott is proposing to reduce emissions by 5% by 2020, starting effective work by 2017.

    In other words it is a pretend scheme to deal with what he pretends is a problem – AGW. Two of Mr Abbott’s hypocrite phony stunts – and you have been suckered by them.

    Mr Abbott is trying to perpetrate the greatest con job this nation has ever seen. There is only one real issue here – will people realize they are being taken for a ride before it is too late?

  29. oh my.

    GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 39 (-2) L/NP 61 (+2) #auspol
    1 minute ago

  30. [TONY Abbott has been accused of heartless political point-scoring after using the tragic spectre of the Queensland floods to fuel his carbon tax attack.]

    How long before Abbott finds a way to link the CT to the holocaust?

  31. Boerwar:

    I’ve never seen Bolt’s show, and can’t envisage a situation when I’d ever watch it, but surely he isn’t ripping off Bluey’s stunts for his show?!

  33. Finns

    [Diog, how did Commodore Bananarama let you out of Fiji.]

    Dio reshaped his face to a custard apple so he is free to travel now without recognition.

  34. Gweneth

    [Boer I think we might need to help that poor staffer. I imagine it is not pleasant to work for the Bolt.]

    I reckon it would be dead easy to work for Mr Bolt. Just remember to agree with everything he says.

  36. The more Labor talks about the CT, the more people concentrate on what is a negative for the ALP and the more their vote goes down.

  38. Glen

    She’ll go down in history as truly the worse PM we’ve ever

    That would have passed the CT, passed the MRRT, layed the NBN

    All reforms that Tony will never, ever, be able to dismantle no matter what he says and what he wishes. His masters will not let him. So thats three major reforms, bought about by 6 years of Lasbor compared to 11 years of Fiberals with only the GST to show for their stint 😀

  41. [I’ve never seen Bolt’s show, and can’t envisage a situation when I’d ever watch it, but surely he isn’t ripping off Bluey’s stunts for his show?!]

    It’s quite conceivable that he is.

  42. gloryconsequence@2726

    Simon Crean to replace Gillard within a month.

    I don’t think this prediction shows much understanding of the history of Crean against the Victorian right, and his battle against the factions – especially the right now in the ascendancy federally. It involved one factional warrior aka Stephen Conroy. Conroy orchestrated a challenge to Crean in Hotham in 2006, which Crean fought off:

    It was, overwhelmingly, a victory over Stephen Conroy, the heavyweight from the Victorian Right credited with orchestrating the challenge against Crean and five other federal MPs.

    http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/writing-on-the-wall/2006/03/07/1141701514446.html?page=fullpage

  43. [The more Labor talks about the CT, the more people concentrate on what is a negative for the ALP and the more their vote goes down.]

    It certainly looks that way. Perhaps the PM should take my advice: recall parliament, get the bills through the HoR and into the Senate, and then tackle the next issue. Is that pokies reform or the mining tax?

  45. Boer true but he may have to wear a hump and wring his hands while taking a mild beating…

    Doesn’t anyone think about the henchmen?

  46. boerwar re helen k comment – I believe it was tim flannery who confirmed there would be no effect and mark dreyfus has also said so in writing to a constituent

  47. [It only remains to ask which eminent climate scientists you believe – Professor Monckton, Professor Carter; Professor Plimer; or Professor Bolt?]

    Or Professors Alan Jones or Nick Minchin. But, I would like Helenk to tell us which of the government’s own highly paid experts have pubicly agreed that the carbon tax will not make any difference to the earth’s atmosphere.

  48. confessions

    [I’ve never seen Bolt’s show, and can’t envisage a situation when I’d ever watch it, but surely he isn’t ripping off Bluey’s stunts for his show?!]

    Bluey doesn’t mind actually. He was hoping to raise consciousness about the pervasive nature of stunts and of their pernicious effect on our democracy. Insiders, CT and the AFR have all had stuff specifically on stunts.

    It is nice to know that ‘The Poll Bludger’ leads the pack.

    OTOH, Bluey is not sanguine about what Mr Bolt would do with Bluey’s stuff.

  49. [2727

    Dan Gulberry

    Posted Sunday, July 17, 2011 at 9:32 pm | Permalink

    GhostWhoVotes GhostWhoVotes
    #Nielsen Poll 2 Party Preferred: ALP 39 (-2) L/NP 61 (+2) #auspol
    ]

    All I’ll say is Kevin Rudd had similar figures 2 years out from an election.

  50. [Simon Crean to replace Gillard within a month.]

    ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha

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