Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition

The latest Essential Research poll has Labor losing the ground it gained in last week’s result: their primary vote has dropped a point to 31 per cent, with the Coalition up one to 49 per cent, the Greens steady on 11 per cent and two-party preferred out from 55-45 to 56-44. Furthermore:

• Little change has been recorded on the carbon tax since an improved result a fortnight ago: approval is steady on 39 per cent and disapproval up two to 51 per cent. Exactly half of all respondents believe that Tony Abbott either doesn’t believe in or doesn’t care about climate change.

• The government’s “Malaysia solution” on asylum seekers has suffered a sharp decline in popularity since June 16: support is down nine points to 31 per cent and opposition up 14 to 53 per cent.

• “Trust in organisations to handle personal information” runs, from highest to lowest, the medical profession, banks, governments,Australian companies, online companies, political parties, foreign companies and the media.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,376 comments on “Essential Research: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  3. 32 – if the wickets are quick enough for a bowler of Dilhara Fernando or Maharoof’s pace to get one to leap from the wicket and cruch Ponting’s finger, then there will have been drop-in decks installed and a complete turnaround from SL cricketing history.

    It will also mean they’re quick enough for our bowlers to do some serious damage.

  5. Thomas Paine

    [$16 trillion here we come… woohooo its not all bad

    ]

    Although it is a bit depressing if you plot on the gold price chart the point where Peter Costello sold 167 tons of our gold ! 🙂 🙂

  6. [ spur212
    Posted Monday, August 1, 2011 at 1:55 pm | Permalink
    Victoria

    The last thing Abbott would want is for the carbon tax issue to turn into a policy debate. It would simply be impossible for him to argue that regulation is better than a market mechanism.

    On top of that, Abbott’s base is at war with the ALP. If Abbott accepts the science of climate change, he’s no longer their man. The ALP need to alienate the extreme end of the spectrum]

    Yes. There is a clear opportunity for a Howard wedge there, if Labor is clever enough to grasp it and push hard.

  9. yeah i reckon. it’s time to smash them

    it’s time those bastard who think just by by saying “BER wasted billions” often enough, then people will believe it as a gospel truth.

    [Thursday, 16 December 2010 – – The BER outcome: time to correct the record

    Here, in a nutshell, is the result of months of expensive work by the Orgill review team examining the government’s Building the Education Revolution component of its stimulus packages:

    * It will support, all up, about 120,000 jobs directly and indirectly, “filling a gap left in demand from the private sector and playing an important role in supporting apprentices and skill retention in the building and construction industry”.
    * The program’s impact was “most pronounced” in its first year, when it was needed most.
    * The new infrastructure is, in the review team’s opinion, “sorely needed, particularly in government schools”.
    * The review received complaints from 294 schools across the entire program?—?3% of the 10,000-odd school projects.]

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2010/12/16/the-ber-outcome-time-to-correct-the-record/

  10. Victoria
    [It is not just an affliction of the young. There are so many people in their forties and fifties who are self absorbed about themselves. It is quite disheartening really.]
    Sadly true. It wasn’t 20 somethings who were running around buying investment properties like housing was a blood sport earlier in the decade.

    I think the whole idea that one generation is better or worse than another is a bit stupid, and gives too much credence to the ramblings of advertisers. I am a Humean fan on human nature – people respond to their circumstances. Saying one generation is better or worse is no more rational than saying one race is better or worse. The whole GenX/Boomer/Gen Y thing is getting awefully tired. The reality is, we have examples both selfish and generous, intelligent and stupid, and progressive and conservative in each.

    As a society we have tended to pander to the needs of the elderly more than the young in recent decades. IMO we should not be proud of that.

  11. [sprocket_
    Posted Monday, August 1, 2011 at 2:05 pm | Permalink

    haven’t heard bishop or Ttuzzzzzz maintaining the rage today? ]

    sprocket they are in Sydney according to this tweet from a Sydney Liberal City Councillor

    ShayneMallard Shayne Mallard
    Finished good presser with Joe Hockey & Julie Bishop re carbon tax hit to local councils across Australia. $1m or more to city Sydney!
    1 hour ago

    I responded…

    davidlen2 davidlen
    @
    @ShayneMallard more Liberal Party scaremongering from Hockey and Bishop..you would think it was good, stuff your kids future eh????
    37 minutes ago

  13. i hope the gov, bring out some basic policies re something like in the health area, or something, while abbotts away,

  16. Further on the debt deal in the USA, Finns and I are not alone in thinking it is a cave-in by the democrats:

    NYT Editorial: “To escape chaos, a terrible deal”
    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/01/opinion/to-escape-chaos-a-terrible-debt-deal.html?hp
    Ross Douthart: “The Diminshed President”
    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/01/opinion/the-diminished-president.html?hp
    Paul Krugman: “The President surrenders”
    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/01/opinion/the-president-surrenders-on-debt-ceiling.html?_r=1&hp

    Ouch.

    Meanwhile over on the right wing side of the media:
    “Debt deal presents small win for democrats, big win for GOP, and gamble for Obama”
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-debt-ceiling-deal-winners-and-losers/2011/07/31/gIQAHl7FmI_story.html

    How anyone thinks this will make Obama look better I can’t understand. It makes him look weak. He is weak. Hundreds of thousands of peopel are going to lose their jobs between now and 2012 elections. Surely that won’t help Obama win?

  18. [Although it is a bit depressing if you plot on the gold price chart the point where Peter Costello sold 167 tons of our gold ! ]

    poroti – do you have a link please.

  20. victoria
    [The elderly would disagree]
    So would rich republicans, but they would be wrong. Not all elderly are wealthy, or many cry “assett rich but income poor”. They forget to compare themselves to many young people who can cry “income poor and no assetts”. I am not young, but anyone who pretends that it is as easy to get started now as in the 80s or earlier needs to do some remedial maths. You would have to go back to the depression to find the last time it was this difficult for someone under 30 to buy a house. Then there are the HECs debts incurred by 40% of all school leavers in the quest to earn the average wage.

  21. Sadly, the market and world will have already marked down USA credit rating, you dont need to wait for the Rating Agencies.

    The Amigos were right. Obama is not up to the job.

    When confronted with tough decisions, he sold out and surrendered, yes, he CAN and has done so.

    Contrast that with Julia Gillard, confronted with tough decisions, she took the tough decisions headson.

    [The President Surrenders, By PAUL KRUGMAN, NYT

    And then there are the reported terms of the deal, which amount to an abject surrender on the part of the president.

    * First, there will be big spending cuts, with no increase in revenue. Then a panel will make recommendations for further deficit reduction — and if these recommendations aren’t accepted, there will be more spending cuts.

    * In fact, Republicans will surely be emboldened by the way Mr. Obama keeps folding in the face of their threats. He surrendered last December, extending all the Bush tax cuts;

    * he surrendered in the spring when they threatened to shut down the government;

    * and he has now surrendered on a grand scale to raw extortion over the debt ceiling. Maybe it’s just me, but I see a pattern here.]

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/01/opinion/the-president-surrenders-on-debt-ceiling.html?_r=1&src=tp

  24. Agree Finns. At this point you think the republicans would actually be happy for Obama to be who they face in 2012. They have his measure. Even if he wins again, they know they can do whatever they want in Congress.

    At least he achieved true racial equality. Now we know a smooth-talking, ineffectual african-american can become president.

  25. Socrates

    I am in my forties. I have a son who is a few days shy of 21. At his age, I had 30% deposit for a house in the outer suburbs. For my son to have 30% deposit at this point in time for a comparable home, he would need $160,000 in savings!!

  26. William,

    Additionally to your article in today’s Crikey.

    On 16 May 2011, Katy Gallagher took over as Chief Minister from Jon Stanhope. No blood was spilt.

  27. TP 54

    I suppose its too late to buy shares in gold mines. Well as a South Aussie at least I can take comfort that there is also a bucket-load of gold in the Olympic Dam deposit, on top of the copper and uranium.

    Finns you are right again that the US deal solves nothing. The rest of the world has now seen how weak american decision making is, and the problem will still re-emerge when they hit $16 billion, which they surely given they still won’t raise taxes.

  28. my say
    Posted Monday, August 1, 2011 at 2:49 pm | Permalink
    i think a nice bread and butter policy this week something self absorbed would like
    a little icing on the cake for them , while abbott the robot rabbit is away.

    that will get joe and julies bishop something else to think of , somthing thats hard
    arithmetic would do the job

    seriously we need another policy to discuss at the moment, i know they cannot do it yet but a dental plan or something like that or who knows any one got any ideas/ of a nice little policy

    that would take the fancy of the self absorbed

  29. [For my son to have 30% deposit at this point in time for a comparable home, he would need $160,000 in savings!!]

    now if only we could bring out a very good housing package while the robots away.

  30. victoria 75

    Similar story here. I don’t have kids but feel sorry for many of the younger graduates I work with. When I hear what they plan to borrow for a house it makes my eyes roll.

    Meanwhile I wonder if any of todays elderly realise what life was like for pensioners in the 70s and 80s.

  32. we had paid our house off when i was 49. we should of dont it earlier if had not been for those dreadful interest rates.

    our son is house hunting again victoria i think he may marriage in mind, says his house now is to small when all her family come from victoira as they did this past week end.

    we thought it would be better to renovate, and this house he looked at to day is weather board and would need painting every 5 years,. but how to tell him these thing with out being a kill joy.
    the price has dropped 100th over the months to mid 400th. 5 bedroom 31 sq older home

  33. If (and it is a big IF) the Republicans can find a candidate who appears strong and has some appeal to the centre, then Obama is in trouble.

    Americans don’t like wishy-washy Presidents.

    You can bet the Republican base will turn up to vote, at this stage I don’t think you can say the same of the Democrat base who are going to end up plenty disillusioned by Obama.

  34. it certainly is, its really supply and demand and there is not much a gov. can do about

    that, there must be a good policy somewhere we could come out with while he is away

  35. [» latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Oppn’s Joe Hockey ‘I don’t think an operation would have any impact on Kevin Rudd’s determination to make life difficult for Julia Gillard.’
    1 minute ago ]

    Abbott can holiday in Europe in peace, knowing Hockey is on the job

  37. Socrates

    My daughter is 19 and doing an electronic engineering degree. She is doing first year. She has managed to pay most of this year’s fees. Only owes about 1,000 for the year. She does not want to graduate with a hecs debt hanging over her head. She already knows how hard a mortgage is going to be, so doesnt want other debts as well.

  38. my say

    I dont know your son’s financial circumstances, but if he has a fair amount of equity, house prices are reasonable at the moment.

  39. BH

    [Although it is a bit depressing if you plot on the gold price chart the point where Peter Costello sold 167 tons of our gold !

    poroti – do you have a link please.]

    [In November 1997 the then Treasurer, Peter Costello, shocked some people when he announced he’d signed off on the sale of $2 billion worth of Australian bullion. On the day he announced the sale the price was around $US306.00 an ounce. At the time, according to Mr Costello, gold “no longer plays a significant role in the international financial system”.]

    [“I think the Reserve bank has handled this extremely clumsily”. Gold, he said, had a future if you took a long term view.
    So here it was 1997 and Australia had sold two thirds of its gold assets in a single day, and sold into a buyer’s market.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2010-03-05/worth-its-weight-in-gold/351864

    [Australian Gold Production and Explorers shrugging off the Costello Curse

    Australian gold miners are now expanding their gold production at a remarkable rate. Our gold industry had been severely bashed about by Peter Costello when he was the Federal Govt Treasurer. Costello sold off Australia’s a lot of our gold reserves for ~$350 dollars and shredded Australia’s gold miners in the process.]

    http://www.australian-shares.com/forums/discussion/6294/australian-gold-production-and-explorers-shrugging-off-the-costello-curse

    [On July 3, 1997, the RBA announced, “Over the past six months, the Reserve Bank has sold 167 tons of gold, reducing its holdings from 247 tons to 80 tons.”

    http://www.vexnews.com/2009/05/no-prophet-cossies-multi-billion-dollar-gold-blunder/

  41. yes being 31,, i think with his business as well, would be ok.

    seems a bit happier to spend more on a home at the moment, which is a change for him,

  42. [it certainly is, its really supply and demand and there is not much a gov. can do about ]
    Government can increase the supply, or control demand by removing tax concessions for people buying second houses as investments (e.g. cap negative gearing). Various measures have been proposed over the past decade, but neither Labor nor Liberal have been game to introduce them. You can also check the Henry Tax Review for ideas.

    My say, I’m glad you care about the problem. I didn’t mean to imply before that all older people are ungrateful. I just find those who are to be very annoying.

    I suppose though, that when I read in history of “lost generations” in the past, I fear that we are creating one now in many countries of the western world.

  43. Hockey’s comments are in incredible bad taste – apparently even medical interventions aren’t apolitical anymore.

    We have reached a truly sad state of affairs.

  44. My say
    [My daughter is 19 and doing an electronic engineering degree.]
    Good for her! There are a lot of opportunities in engineering for bright girls these days.

    Back to work for me.

  45. [» latikambourke Latika Bourke
    Oppn’s Joe Hockey ‘I don’t think an operation would have any impact on Kevin Rudd’s determination to make life difficult for Julia Gillard.’
    1 minute ago ]

    I thought Joe told us in Parliament that Kev is his best friend since JG took over. Why does he want Kev to look like a destroyer for Labor. Must be true if his bestest ever friend is saying it.

    Hang on … Joe’s a Lib and they can’t lie straight in bed so whatever Joe says we know it’s trash.

  48. your daughter is very wise, Victoria, very wise,

    but may be also would like a trip overseas, before settling, our middle daughter did both, but then she did the things the old fashioned way, finished uni married at 25
    built the house the same year, went over seas had a house sitter they went to gether then had their first baby at 30, now expecting her 3rd in nov at 35

    so many young ones wait so long to get married they they have debts longer and will have children on their hands at 60 they dont work it out.

  50. [overnment can increase the supply, or control demand by removing tax concessions for people buying second houses as investments (e.g. cap negative gearing). Various measures have been proposed over the past decade, but neither Labor nor Liberal have been game to introduce them.]

    Swannie should put this on his Tax Summit agenda.

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