Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy have conducted their first poll of federal voting intention for some time, and it’s bang on the mark of other recent polling: the Coalition leads 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Thirty-seven per cent support the carbon tax (which is apparently “up two”, although I couldn’t tell you off the top of my head what they’re comparing it with), with 55 per cent opposed (steady). UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes in comments does my homework for me by pointing out that the point of comparison is this poll from May.

The sample, remarkably, is 2000, producing a low margin of error of 2.2 per cent. Pollsters rarely go this high, as the statistical return on the investment diminishes quite rapidly: a 1000 sample poll gets you a margin of error of about 3.1 per cent; another 500 cuts it by 0.6 per cent; but another 500 only cuts it a further 0.3 per cent. Newspoll approaches 2000 for its immediate pre-election polls, but it does this in order to boost its sample sizes in the smaller states so it can produce credible state-by-state breakdowns. Maybe Galaxy has done something similar here and we can expect more detail to be forthcoming – or alternatively, perhaps the method used is some sort of low-cost alternative to phone polling, such as the automated dialling employed by JWS Research.

UPDATE: Told you so: GhostWhoVotes reports that the figures for Queensland are 59-41 two-party, with primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor, 54 per cent for the Coalition and 8 per cent for the Greens.

UPDATE 2: Further from Ghost central:

In the Sydney Metro area the primaries are ALP 29 L/NP 54 GRN 9. The two party preferred comes to ALP 40 L/NP 60, which is apparently a swing of 13% since the last election …

People that believe that man-made carbon emissions are the cause of global warming has remained steady at 36, while belief in the cycle of nature being responsible rose 6 points to 32 percent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,164 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  2. There are still hard yards ahead, although the Murdochracy and their ABC must be very disappointed that this is all their regime-change agenda can achieve. Surely by now, Tone should have installed his chair in the PM‘s office.

  11. I am not worried about any Labor by-elections. Any electorate that returned a Labor member in the last Federal election sure as hell will not be voting Abbott into power. A by-election in a Coalition seat, on the other hand, would be another matter entirely.

  18. Just saw MT on Lateline (from the NPC today) correcting his leader on the claim that CO2 is weightless – said anyone who drops a piece of dry ice on their foot would know otherwise. He seemed to be enjoying himself.

    Tone would be absolutely livid.

  23. Tony Jones just put Joe Hockey through the ringer with a very well thought out and probing interview. Made Hockey look like a waffling fool at times.

    If this is a sign of things to come it should be very entertaining.

  26. More sell, sell, sell from The Comrades

    [Aug 3, 2011
    China says US deal ‘failed to defuse debt bomb’

    BEIJING – CHINA warned on Wednesday that tortured efforts to raise the US debt ceiling had failed to defuse Washington’s ‘debt bomb”, and that it would further diversify its currency holdings away from the dollar.

    US President Barack Obama finally signed an emergency austerity bill on Tuesday that averted what would have been a catastrophic debt default for the world’s biggest economy.

    But a failure to rein in US borrowing could ‘jeopardise the well-being of hundreds of millions of families within and beyond the US borders”, the official Xinhua news agency said in a blistering commentary on the deal.

    ‘The months-long tug of war between Democrats and Republicans… failed to defuse Washington’s debt bomb for good, only delaying an immediate detonation by making the fuse an inch longer,’ the commentary said.

    ‘Meanwhile, the madcap farce of brinkmanship has disclosed yet another ticking bomb in the heartland of the sole superpower in the world – the crippling tendency to politicise the economics while trivializing the politics.’ China, sitting on the world’s biggest foreign exchange reserves of around US$3.20 trillion (S$3.85 trillion) as of the end of June, is the largest holder of US Treasuries. — AFP]

  29. No 127

    I’m happy the tea party is urging spending thrift at all costs as that is surely better than more spending at all costs. We all know where Greece ended up.

  30. [I’m happy the tea party is urging spending thrift at all costs as that is surely better than more spending at all costs. We all know where Greece ended up.]

    I am surprised the Russians and Chinese dont flood the market with US Bonds crippling the US economy….it’d be like you wont the cold war but now you’re poor HAHA!

  33. People that believe that man-made carbon emissions are the cause of global warming has remained steady at 36, while belief in the cycle of nature being responsible rose 6 points to 32 percent.

  34. [People that believe that man-made carbon emissions are the cause of global warming has remained steady at 36, while belief in the cycle of nature being responsible rose 6 points to 32 percent.]

    A win for Tone and the Luddites 🙂 lol

  35. The U.S. is already in Greece territory. The only thing stopping most of the world calling them out are the small matters of a reserve currency and lots of muscle.

    Even then both Russia and China have taken it up a notch in the last couple of days.

  39. No 135

    It’s more than just reserve currency and muscle – China’s economy is heavily dependent on US growth as its own domestic demand is still not of any material significance. Sure, China can crash the US economy overnight, but they’d put tens of millions of Chinese out of work in the process.

  42. [People that believe that man-made carbon emissions are the cause of global warming has remained steady at 36, while belief in the cycle of nature being responsible rose 6 points to 32 percent.

    A win for Tone and the Luddites 🙂 lol]

    The better informed a populace the healthier the democracy. Propaganda outlets such as Radio Liberal that intentionally seek to misinform and manipulate the public are a cancer on democracy.

  48. GP

    PB Labortariat meme = I don’t like what I see in the media, there’s not enough stories praising such a wonderful woman like Julia Gillard so let’s censor it to my liking.

  49. How delusional are you all, Gillard is finished, unless she is replaced and the CO2 tax canned the ALP are heading to a NSW style defeat (remember the polls turned bad about 2 years from the end) and that is if Windsor and Oakshott don’t go feral on the ALP, and they are both capable of that, ask the Nationals, don’t think they are not, when their backs are to the wall those buffoons will do anything and they are not too far away from that trust me, I will give them to Christmas and after that if the polls don’t change they will…………

  50. lol the usual suspects have entered the room.

    btw GP, NSW has gotten worse since Liberals took over, alot of my relatives haven’t seen any change since they took office.

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