Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy have conducted their first poll of federal voting intention for some time, and it’s bang on the mark of other recent polling: the Coalition leads 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Thirty-seven per cent support the carbon tax (which is apparently “up two”, although I couldn’t tell you off the top of my head what they’re comparing it with), with 55 per cent opposed (steady). UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes in comments does my homework for me by pointing out that the point of comparison is this poll from May.

The sample, remarkably, is 2000, producing a low margin of error of 2.2 per cent. Pollsters rarely go this high, as the statistical return on the investment diminishes quite rapidly: a 1000 sample poll gets you a margin of error of about 3.1 per cent; another 500 cuts it by 0.6 per cent; but another 500 only cuts it a further 0.3 per cent. Newspoll approaches 2000 for its immediate pre-election polls, but it does this in order to boost its sample sizes in the smaller states so it can produce credible state-by-state breakdowns. Maybe Galaxy has done something similar here and we can expect more detail to be forthcoming – or alternatively, perhaps the method used is some sort of low-cost alternative to phone polling, such as the automated dialling employed by JWS Research.

UPDATE: Told you so: GhostWhoVotes reports that the figures for Queensland are 59-41 two-party, with primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor, 54 per cent for the Coalition and 8 per cent for the Greens.

UPDATE 2: Further from Ghost central:

In the Sydney Metro area the primaries are ALP 29 L/NP 54 GRN 9. The two party preferred comes to ALP 40 L/NP 60, which is apparently a swing of 13% since the last election …

People that believe that man-made carbon emissions are the cause of global warming has remained steady at 36, while belief in the cycle of nature being responsible rose 6 points to 32 percent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,164 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  3. [Cuppa translated: I don’t like what I see in the media, so let’s censor it to my liking.]

    GP translated: I don’t like what Bernard Keane says, so I’ll label him a terrorist sympathiser.

  4. Here’s Joe Hockey on Lateline

    http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/201108/r808784_7199324.asx

    He was all over the place. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a politician respond so embarrasingly during an interview. The most alerting part was when he said the Coalition are thinking about disbanding the department of climate change.

    The Coalition have had a terrible time of it over the last month or so. Serious questions are being asked about Direct Action and they haven’t been able to make any forward momentum. On top of that, Abbott has frequently contradicted his position on his climate change policy, the science and his emission target.

    I can’t see them sustaining their position. Something is going to have to give.

  5. [ and that is if Windsor and Oakshott don’t go feral on the ALP, and they are both capable of that, ask the Nationals, don’t think they are not, when their backs are to the wall those ]

    Ric

    private schools inflict such terrible damage

    I hope you didnt drop the soap

    😉

  6. Glen if we had a truly fair and balanced media, your mob would be in a position where they MUST lift their game and develop some good conservative policies.

    What a pleasant change that would be. I could give you one right now if you want!

  7. No 150

    lol, I’ve lived in NSW all my life. The fact that the government is turning off speed cameras is already a big change. Sticking it to the unions is also excellent. Rolling on with the NW rail link.

    Keep living in your delusion furnished by Kristina Hair Extension Keneally.

  10. [Cuppa I blame that 6% rise on Lord Monckton lol]

    The people who pay any attention to him are already believers. Easily taken in by a clever-talking “Lord” of the Peerage. Overwhelmingly old, white and male, whose conservative inclination makes them fearful of any change. A CARBON TAX!! You can’t do THAT! That’s socialism!! I never heard of climate change when I was growing up, therefore it’s not real and these Greens – these GREENS are SOCIALISTS! The earth is actually going into a mini ice age. I know, because such-and-such told me on the radio.

    Very fearful, dim-witted, and the a soft target for radio networks that pump fearmaking angry rhetoric into their shrivelled brains 24/7, just for the benefit of the Liberal Party and the billionaires who pull the party’s strings.

  11. [The Coalition have had a terrible time of it over the last month or so. Serious questions are being asked about Direct Action and they haven’t been able to make any forward momentum. On top of that, Abbott has frequently contradicted his position on his climate change policy, the science and his emission target.

    I can’t see them sustaining their position. Something is going to have to give. ]

    They live on the polls. Luckily for them, the media only defines success by polls, not merit.

  13. @GP/157

    Turning off Speed Camera’s help how? by making NSW Health system more worse?

    NW rail link? who cares.

    Who’s the delusional suspect!

  14. Not sure why Greece gets picked on when there are others worse off.

    Well I actually am sure. Small fish are easier to fry.

  20. [The US is in malta?]

    Yeah!

    The USA is still easily the strongest economy in the world. They could wipe their debts with agressive tax cuts in no time if necessary. In fact if a Republican was in the White House that logical option would be easier to accept over there.

  23. [
    Tony Delroy’s Nightlife
    By the way our Issue of the Day will ask if sexism in the media means the glass ceiling is still an obstacle for women, especially in positions of political power or community influence? Julia Gillard, Christine Nixon and Kristina Keneally have been copping it in today’s news – but would blokes in the same position have been treated the same way? Join Tony for this discussion in tonight’s third hour of The Nightlife.
    4 hours ago · Like · ]

  24. [The USA is still easily the strongest economy in the world. They could wipe their debts with agressive tax cuts in no time if necessary.]
    Um, you mean some tax increases.

    Bush TRIED closing a budget deficit by cutting taxes, but all it did is increase the deficit by a factor of 4.

  25. centre,

    The U.S. could wipe their debts with aggressive tax cuts???

    Wow reagonomics lives.

    Revenue as a percentage of gdp is at decades long lows there. Reducing tax rates will do zip.

  26. [No 163

    NSW Labor for 16 years: “We’re destroying the state? WHO CARES?!”]
    Enjoy your 1 or 2 terms in Government, because Labor will be back in power for another decade after that.

    Labor is the natural party of government in NSW.

  28. The really bad news – wait for it – for those wishing for an end to the global financial system; is that there are corporations in the US and Australia that are recording larger profits today than what they were before the GFC.

    The catch is that their share prices are almost halved. The global economy will recover. The velocity of global economic growth will increase eventually.

    But there is a bubble out there that WILL bust believe me, and it is not the global financial system. 😉

  30. [Bush TRIED closing a budget deficit by cutting taxes, but all it did is increase the deficit by a factor of 4.]

    We need more money, so we’ll cut our revenue . … Hey, it convinced the right wing voters.

  32. [Hey Gussy, guess the poster for ten points, “I don’t think AGW is completely man made” 😉 ]

    It was me!

    And a silly ill informed statement it was but it was a mistake I meant to say Global Warming.

  35. I suppose others have commented on it, but an excellent speech by Turnbull tonight, with a well reasoned argument for the coalition to go back more towards the centre too.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-08-03/turnbull-decries-war-on-climate-science/2823216

    For the record, while I generally support speed cameras in principle if they are located in accident black spots that are speed-related, I must agree that far too many have been used to either raise revenue, or placate local residents about unrelated noise or amenity concerns. In such circumstances, there is no evidence of any safety benefit, and real risk of a safety dis-benefit due to creating public cynicism towards speed limits. I would be very surprised if we will see evidence of increased accidents in NSW at locations where some are being removed. We shall see.

  36. [And a silly ill informed statement it was but it was a mistake I meant to say Global Warming.]
    It still doesn’t make sense if you say “global warming”, because global warming is being caused by the excess CO2 added by human activities.

    If that was taken away, the oceans would be able to absorb small increases of CO2 caused by natural events, e.g. volcanic eruptions.

  37. [But there is a bubble out there that WILL bust believe me, and it is not the global financial system. ]
    The coalition 2PP? Lets hope so 🙂 Night all.

  38. Adam Smith is going great rates on the nutter-tuckers site. I suspect Adam is ShowsOn.

    Ben is having a bit of fun too. He reads like a bludger, but I am not confident in making a guess at whom.

  39. [It still doesn’t make sense if you say “global warming”, because global warming is being caused by the excess CO2 added by human activities.]

    But global warming also occurred without an excess of CO2 from human activity throughout history.

  42. [If that was taken away, the oceans would be able to absorb small increases of CO2 caused by natural events, e.g. volcanic eruptions.]
    I’d agree with this general point but two comments. First the recovery from current CO2 levels will take over 100 years. Second my understanding is that not all volcanic eruptions cause extra CO2 anyway. it depends on the geology of the volcano. Some have a net cooling effect, depending on the type of gases and volume of dust emitted.
    [NW rail link? who cares.]
    About 300,000 people care, and the number is growing. Equal to the population of Canberra. NSW Labor will take a long time to live that one down, and would be smart not to argue it.

  43. [But global warming also occurred without an excess of CO2 from human activity throughout history.]
    No, you are confusing “global warming” and the “greenhouse effect”.

    Global warming inherently means warming caused by human activities adding CO2 to the atmosphere at a rate that is beyond equilibrium, i.e. faster than it can be absorbed by the ocean.

  44. [Global warming inherently means warming caused by human activities adding CO2 to the atmosphere at a rate that is beyond equilibrium, i.e. faster than it can be absorbed by the ocean.]

    Then can I use climate change?

  46. [But global warming also occurred without an excess of CO2 from human activity throughout history.]
    No it varied up and down depending on a combination of factors, and took thousands of years to do so. Also it has never varied as much as we are varying it now while human beings have been on the planet, so strictly this is incorrect. The real problem is that the current human-caused change is so much faster than any natural change, there is no time for natural adaptive mechanisms to adjust to it, hence a lot of stresses are caused.

  47. [Then can I use climate change?]
    Well sure, but it is simply a truism to say that the climate changes based on human induced and non-human induced factors (you know like say, the heat generated by the sun).

    So by making such a statement you aren’t really saying anything.

  49. I got to see a bit of the replay of Malcolm at the NPC today.

    Ooohh he did look good. Pity just about everyone in the Coalition hate him 😆

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