Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition

GhostWhoVotes reports that Galaxy have conducted their first poll of federal voting intention for some time, and it’s bang on the mark of other recent polling: the Coalition leads 56-44 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 31 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 13 per cent for the Greens. Thirty-seven per cent support the carbon tax (which is apparently “up two”, although I couldn’t tell you off the top of my head what they’re comparing it with), with 55 per cent opposed (steady). UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes in comments does my homework for me by pointing out that the point of comparison is this poll from May.

The sample, remarkably, is 2000, producing a low margin of error of 2.2 per cent. Pollsters rarely go this high, as the statistical return on the investment diminishes quite rapidly: a 1000 sample poll gets you a margin of error of about 3.1 per cent; another 500 cuts it by 0.6 per cent; but another 500 only cuts it a further 0.3 per cent. Newspoll approaches 2000 for its immediate pre-election polls, but it does this in order to boost its sample sizes in the smaller states so it can produce credible state-by-state breakdowns. Maybe Galaxy has done something similar here and we can expect more detail to be forthcoming – or alternatively, perhaps the method used is some sort of low-cost alternative to phone polling, such as the automated dialling employed by JWS Research.

UPDATE: Told you so: GhostWhoVotes reports that the figures for Queensland are 59-41 two-party, with primary votes of 32 per cent for Labor, 54 per cent for the Coalition and 8 per cent for the Greens.

UPDATE 2: Further from Ghost central:

In the Sydney Metro area the primaries are ALP 29 L/NP 54 GRN 9. The two party preferred comes to ALP 40 L/NP 60, which is apparently a swing of 13% since the last election …

People that believe that man-made carbon emissions are the cause of global warming has remained steady at 36, while belief in the cycle of nature being responsible rose 6 points to 32 percent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,164 comments on “Galaxy: 56-44 to Coalition”

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  1. poroti
    Posted Friday, August 5, 2011 at 9:01 pm | Permalink

    What I am pointing out is the hypocrisy and the war crimes that the US did in the name of such hypocrisy.

    And I was pointing out your hypocrisy for not pointing out Spanish war crimes in the PI – which you still haven’t done.

  3. Interesting place to vist this Nova’s blog. Remember to wash on the way out.

    I go for the full bio-haz decontam.

  4. zoid@1936:

    [Maybe the Liberals such as Hockey were pissed that Michin left ?]

    I doubt that any politician is ever pissed that someone left. Leaves more places for the rest.

  6. Winston (formerly known as Glen, now known as Thomas E. Dewey) @ 1688:

    [Charlton

    Don’t worry Karma will catch up to GP.]

    (I thought I’d better qualify your blogging names for the sake of clarity & it’s this post of yours which caused my confusion.)

    GP reminds me a little of Gordon Gekko who said inter alia in the 1987 movie “Wall Street:”

    [Lunch? Aw, you gotta be kidding. Lunch is for wimps.

    If you want a friend, get a dog.

    You’re walking around blind without a cane, pal. A fool and his money are lucky enough to get together in the first place.]

  8. [expect a horde of loco muthatruckers to invade this site]

    Gus,

    May I borrow a light-sabre (preferably the big green one with the long-life batteries)

  9. gus,

    expect a horde of loco muthatruckers to invade this site

    That is okay. They are welcome. I am sure it will be a seamless integration. 😉

  10. Hi,

    I am back! Nails done in glittery pink and candy pink eyeshadow and lipstick. Not a good look but all in a good cause – my niece’s 5th birthday!

    [gordongraham Gordon Graham
    by geeksrulz
    Julie Bishop stands by Turnbull after Minchin attack http://yhoo.it/r8pxCD … interesting #auspol
    ]

  11. don@1954

    zoid@1936:

    Maybe the Liberals such as Hockey were pissed that Michin left ?

    I doubt that any politician is ever pissed that someone left. Leaves more places for the rest.

    Ah – but Don, Minchin was *The Don*, the King maker for so long. Old habits die hard.

    Lotsa scorces to be settled all round you know.

    Minchin should just have cut clean and walked away. If he still wanted to play the game he needed to keep training with *the boys*. No one plays without training each week.

  12. dave
    [And I was pointing out your hypocrisy for not pointing out Spanish war crimes in the PI – which you still haven’t done]
    Mate, the topic was Teddy the Roosevelt. The Rough Rider hero. So I pointed out his less than lovely features. Don’t get me started on the Spanish bloody crimes done in the name of the catholic church. One does not excuse the other.

  13. [I am back! Nails done in glittery pink and candy pink eyeshadow and lipstick.]

    sk,

    thanks for the warning. Am now wearing sunglasses to read your posts.

  14. [Winston (formerly known as Glen, now known as Thomas E. Dewey)]

    Can someone clue me in as to why Glen changed? Seems very radical to change both screen name AND gravatar. What happened?

  17. Hey Puff, have you seen her later post on the “Branch Carbonian” cult??

    Oh and the whole debate about AGW is over by the way. A “Blockbuster” paper is apparently coming out showing most emissions are natural not anthropogenic. Funnily enough her take on it is to post a graph showing that nature is a net sink of carbon rather than a net emitter. Real science here Chasps!!

  18. Don’t get me started on the Spanish bloody crimes done in the name of the catholic church. One does not excuse the other.

    You are very late with that. See my post #1938 acknowledging Roosevelt involvement.

    Do try to keep up.

  19. Puff,

    The toenails were spared but my hair is going to be full of knots!

    Scarpat,

    I am thinking seriously about putting a towel over my head!

  20. confessions@1964

    Winston (formerly known as Glen, now known as Thomas E. Dewey)

    Can someone clue me in as to why Glen changed? Seems very radical to change both screen name AND gravatar. What happened?

    He is runnng away from his past only to run backwards.

    What else for a tory ?

  21. [Can someone clue me in as to why Glen changed? Seems very radical to change both screen name AND gravatar. What happened?]

    We impatiently await his explanation (mind you, he’s got me thinking about a gravatar change).

    Glen, for the second time, what on earth is going on?

  22. imacca
    The what????

    Oh and the whole debate about AGW is over by the way.

    Thanks for letting me know. I can go back to baking a cake and matching the curtains to the sofa.

  25. [Glen, for the second time, what on earth is going on?]

    Glen, I have come late to this news too. Are you having a bad day and are feeling like a two-time loser?

  26. scarpat,

    I just have to remember to take the nail polish off before I head off to the football tomorrow. Could be a bit embarassment. 😀

  27. dave

    [You are very late with that. See my post #1938 acknowledging Roosevelt involvement]
    Que? He was a prick and no worse a prick than the pricks that had run the country beforehand. What’s the prob ?

  28. [That is okay. They are welcome. I am sure it will be a seamless integration.]

    Puff

    You do have a strong phalanx of Frank, george, david, dave and Finns to hold out any unwanted posters 🙂

  30. [I just have to remember to take the nail polish off before I head off to the football tomorrow. Could be a bit embarassment.]

    sk,

    shucks no. You are just young at heart.

  31. He was a prick and no worse a prick than the pricks that had run the country beforehand. What’s the prob ?

    You’re the one with the problem.

  32. [I think you meant Franklin Delano]

    Or maybe not: FDR invaded the Philippines as well. According to this bloke, the battle for Manila alone killed “an estimated 100,000 Filipino civilians. This death toll was greater than the atomic bombing of Hiroshima.”

  33. [Glen, I have come late to this news too. Are you having a bad day and are feeling like a two-time loser?]

    Scarps,

    It’s no time for jibes. Our resident Tory is in a crisis and we need to extend the hand of progressive kindness,

    Now, Glen… WTF IS GOING ON !!!!

  34. [Are you having a bad day and are feeling like a two-time loser?]

    “two”? Scarps, we’re way into the double digits by now

  36. [mari @ 1709:

    Thanks Charlton (1682) I can’t stand abuse when it is not required but I think as you go through the posts My Say stuck up for herself very well, BUT I agree GP wouldn’t take any notice, I must admit I was surprised I didn’t cop a bucketing as well.]

    As you & others have pointed out, mysay can stick up for herself but it was a cheap & nasty shot and he needed to be called for it.

    He may be knowledgeable about a lot of things but he sure doesn’t know much about manners.

  40. [BH @ 1767:

    Her time with Slater & Gordon would have been a great help in the negotiation process, coupled with her innate charm.

    An absolutely fantastic training ground for a young female Labor pollie, Charlton.

    The media says JG has no vision. I see it writ large in her desire that every kid has an education that is genuine and not a waste of time.]

    Noted & agree.

  41. T E Dewey,
    No need to keep them out, they can come over and discuss or debate any time. Of course I say that knowing there is little likelihood any of the them would be seen here even in a pink fit. 👿

    But as they say: ‘mutha-truckers, come on dowwwwwn.’

  42. Fess

    [My decision on this matter is as certain and final as death and the staggering New Deal taxes.]

    But seriously I don’t want to use Winston’s full name on PB but I am happy to use Dewey’s.

    Unless you can come up with another famous Tory I could use???

  43. [Where would you place Winnie on the spectrum?]

    Hard to place as he went back and forth between the Liberals and Tories…

  44. [Dewey is a moderate Republican suits my politics well]

    Glen,

    yes he was and would be feeling as aliented from the current Repubs as moderate Liberals must be feeling about the Liberal Party under its current leadership

  48. William Bowe

    [Or maybe not: FDR invaded the Philippines as well. According to this bloke, the battle for Manila alone killed “an estimated 100,000 Filipino civilians. This death toll was greater than the atomic bombing of Hiroshima.”]
    Check out the US invasion of the Philipines done at about the same time patriotic Australians were heading off to fight the Boers. The dead “natives” were more twice as much as the “mere” 100,00. Especially disgusting is that the US-Spanish War was almost certainly the result of the campaign of a newspaper man one Randolph Hearst.

  50. Been busy handing out Census forms so haven’t been able to catch up reading this blog as much as I like to. Naive question related to the quote from William:

    [The sample, remarkably, is 2000, producing a low margin of error of 2.2 per cent. Pollsters rarely go this high, as the statistical return on the investment diminishes quite rapidly: a 1000 sample poll gets you a margin of error of about 3.1 per cent; another 500 cuts it by 0.6 per cent; but another 500 only cuts it a further 0.3 per cent.]

    If it’s possible to answer without getting too psephologically complicated then how many people would have to be sampled before the margin of error becomes so small as to be meaningless? In my ignorance I’m imagining 100% of the population would give 0% but if 2000 is only 2.2% moe, then where does the moe get close to zero?

    Sorry if this question sounds garbled – it’s very tiring tramping the streets handing out forms, although I imagine many of you guys would have experienced the same when canvassing.

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