The Australian brings results of a Newspoll survey conducted from Tuesday to Saturday in Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott’s regional NSW seats of New England and Lyne. The polls targeted about 500 voters each, producing margins of error of a little under 4.5 per cent. As expected, the results indicate a plunge in support for the incumbents since the election and their subsequent decision to back a Labor minority government. In New England, the poll has Tony Windsor at 33 per cent compared with 61.9 per cent at the election, with the Nationals at 41 per cent compared with 25.2 per cent. In Lyne, Rob Oakeshott’s primary vote is at 26 per cent compared with 47.1 per cent at the 2010 election, and the Nationals are at 47 per cent compared with 34.4 per cent.
Determining two-candidate preferred results for individual electorates in circumstances so radically different from the previous election is problematic, and Newspoll has done the best that could be done under the circumstances by publishing both previous-election and respondent-allocated measures. In New England, the previous election measure has Windsor and the Nationals tied at 50-50. Unfortunately we do not have a full set of primary vote figures at this stage, but it would seem to me from the two-candidate result that the “others” vote (excluding Windsor, Nationals, Labor and Greens) must be in the mid-teens. UPDATE: Full tables here courtesy of GhostWhoVotes – “others” is at 14 per cent in Lyne and 13 per cent in New England. At the 2010 election it was only 1.2 per cent, that being the combined total for One Nation and the Citizens Electoral Council. To apply these parties’ preference distribution to such a large chunk of the vote is obviously imprecise at best. The respondent-allocated preference measure has Windsor trailing 53-47, but this has problems of its own – in particular it requires respondents to make up their own mind, when many will in fact follow how-to-vote cards.
In Lyne, Rob Oakeshott trails 62-38 on respondent-allocated preferences and 55-45 on the previous election results. Similarly to the New England poll, the latter figure appears to have been obtained by amplifying a mid-teens “others” vote through the 2010 preference distribution of one independent who polled 0.7 per cent. While this is by any measure a depressing set of figures for Oakeshott, it is a good deal better for him than a ReachTel automated phone poll conducted in August, which had the Nationals leading 55 per cent to 15 per cent on the primary vote. That poll was rightly criticised at the time for asking about the carbon tax and pokies reform before getting to voting intention. It may also raise doubts about the precision of automated phone polling, which in this country at least has a patchy record (though it seems to be a different story in the United States).
Another difficulty with polls for these two seats is that it is not yet clear which candidates the Nationals will be running, which can have a very significant bearing on regional seats especially. After initially stating he wasn’t interested, the party’s state leader Andrew Stoner has recently said he would “never say never” to the prospect of running in Lyne, with earlier reports suggesting he was being “courted” to make such a move with a view to replacing Warren Truss as federal leader. This was said to be partly motivated by a desire to block a similar move by Barnaby Joyce, who has declared his interest in New England. However, Tony Abbott has said the candidate in Lyne from 2010, Port Macquarie medical specialist David Gillespie, would get “wholehearted support” if he wanted to run again. According to a flattering profile of Abbott by Tom Dusevic in The Weekend Australian, Gillespie is a “boyhood friend” of Abbott’s.
Newspoll also sought approval ratings for the two independents and gauged opinion on their decisions to support the Labor minority government and the carbon tax legislation. This provided one heartening result for Tony Windsor, who retains the approval of 50 per cent of his constituents with 44 per cent disapproving (UPDATE: Sorry, got that the wrong way around). Rob Oakeshott’s respective ratings are 38 per cent and 54 per cent. Voters in Lyne were the more hostile to their member’s support for the Labor government: 32 per cent were supportive and 61 opposed, against 36 per cent and 54 per cent in New England. The results on the carbon tax seem to have been effectively identical, with respective opposition of 72 per cent and 71 per cent. Only 22 per cent of respondents in Lyne were supportive; The Australian’s article neglects to provide a figure for New England, but it can be presumed to have been very similar.
UPDATE: The weekly Essential Research has the two-party preferred steady at 55-45, although Labor is off a point on the primary to 32 per cent with the Coalition and the Greens steady on 48 per cent and 11 per cent respectively. My favourite of the supplementary questions, as it was at my suggestion, gauges current opinion of major reforms of the past few decades, which gives a resounding thumbs-up to compulsory superannuation and Medicare, strong support to floating the dollar and free trade agreements, a fairly modest majority in favour of the GST. Privatisations, however, are opposed in retrospect as well as prospect, although reversing those already conducted has only bare majority support. For some reason though, more support regulating the dollar than thought it was a bad idea in the first place, and a big majority favour increasing trade protection. Other questions relate to a republic (41 per cent for, 33 per cent against), the Commonwealth (47 per cent believe membership of benefit) and succession to the throne (61 per cent believe it should be gender-neutral) and who is to blame for the Qantas dispute (management by and large).
Mod Libs delights in pointing out the incosistencies in other Pbers’ thinking and fails to see his own inconsistencies.
Drake
[Do the asylum seekers in question ever enter this jurisdiction?]
They don’t have to for the definition to be applicable, but hmmm, let’s see. Which jurisdiction sends them against their will? Which jurisdiction tried on the agreement with Malaysia.
You tell me the answer.
[…….Gravytrain of the Refugee Industry…..]
Franco, this is a deplorable attempt at character assassination. Since when has defending the rights of the voiceless been a “gravy train”? This tactic does you no credit and it does nothing to advance understanding on this issue. There is nothing but cant and hypocrisy all around on this issue.
From the July statement ShellBell linked:
From a Lateline report in May http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2011/s3212073.htm :
From a Lateline interview in early September after the High Court decision http://www.abc.net.au/lateline/content/2011/s3308139.htm :
and further
The thing about that interview is Richard Towle very explicitly blasted PNG or Nauru as destinations but never said anything against Malaysia, with many comments that basically implied support for the Malaysia solution concept (“not on the people smuggling movements”, “no burden sharing of the problem when you talk about PNG and Nauru”).
Any proclaimed equivalence (by the Libs and supporters) between Nauru and Malaysia is just a lie – and Mod Lib is not included, because he has never advocated Nauru and I acknowledge that (TPVs is a different matter, hey Mod Lib?)
Certainly “endorsement” of the Malaysian Solution is too strong a term, but the UNHCR absolutely sees benefits in it. All of this “Oh it’s all evil and shameful and no one with any conscience could possibly support it” is just nonsense.
Making it into a black and white issue when it was nothing of the sort is absurd.
jv,
You’re the one who disagreed with confessions- if you want it rebutted then you do it, you arrogant lazy little so-and-so.
Labor pledged before the 2007 election to place the detention centres back in public hands.
Serco is profiting handsomely from the current immigration detention system.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/asylum-seekers-are-gold-for-jailer/story-e6freuy9-1226082364642
[THE foreign giant that runs Australia’s detention centres has received a fresh taxpayer-funded bonanza, nearly tripling local revenues over the last year.
Serco’s Australian arm has cashed in on the ongoing government asylum seeker crisis. It generated an astonishing $369 million in revenues for the 2010 calendar year – compared with just $130 million a year earlier, while profits rose by well over 100 per cent because of huge detention centre earnings.
The extraordinary Serco profit blowout has led to experts calling for the government to take back operational control of the centres.]
[697
jenauthor
Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 at 11:07 pm | Permalink
Now can any one from Team left tell me why Gillard will not support gay marriage? I support it so there cant be that much opposition in Labor to cause gillard trouble. Or does Gillard really not support it from a personal stand point.
Yo make a mistake in thinking ALL ALP people think the same way. There are some very staunch catholic types in Labor who do not approve of gay marriage.
I don’t understand why this is an issue in 2011 – anybody should be able to marry anybody IMHO. But the deeply religious can be remarkably unenlightened.
]
The PM was raised a Baptist, so now doubt her view was formed at a young age – and yes Athiests can also believe in the traditional meaning of Mariage.
[Have I missed out on the ModLib show? Damn. I wanted an answer to that one.]
same time tomorrow, rinse and repeat
[703
briefly
Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 at 11:10 pm | Permalink
…….Gravytrain of the Refugee Industry…..
Franco, this is a deplorable attempt at character assassination. Since when has defending the rights of the voiceless been a “gravy train”? This tactic does you no credit and it does nothing to advance understanding on this issue. There is nothing but cant and hypocrisy all around on this issue.
]
What Twaddle – there are some elements who are using it to raise their public profile – REAL Activists do it quietly and without fanfare.
Evening all!
Any hints yet from Ghost about Newspoll? 🙂
Interesting that Richo reckons that a referendum on gay marriage would be defeated.
Where are you Shows On, told ya 🙂
From Pegasus’ link to 730Report:
[TRACY BOWDEN, REPORTER: It’s a movement that’s gone global, an international protest against corporate greed and power. From its beginnings at Wall Street in New York City, it’s spread from London across Europe to Asia and Australia.]
I’ve looked at the websites of Occupy Melbourne and Occupy Sydney, and nowhere is this even mentioned, or even overtly obvious from the website material. All we get are crank theories about Bob Brown and world govt, or some incoherent drivel about the RBA.
[TIM DAVIS FRANK, OCCUPY SYDNEY MOVEMENT: We are the workers. We are the indebted. We are the immigrants and the Indigenous. We are the homeless. We are the students. We are the unemployed. We are the under-represented people of the world.]
These supposed under-represented people were quite well represented in Australia’s parliament last week during Senate Estimates. Did Tim Davis Frank watch proceedings last week, or was he too busy conducting a sit-in protesting the RBA for not caring enough about Australians because it’s gone a whole year without raising interest rates?
[OLIVER MARC HARTWICH: They are anti-capitalist, they are deeply unhappy with the system, they are also mixing with the ecological movement, the hard green movement, the post-Communist movement, the trade unionist movement and some student politics. So it’s quite a bunch of different people.]
Where are the protests against the pokies machine advocates? Was it really only a week ago we saw reports of plans to open more machines in low socio-economic areas? Where are the protests against Big Gina and the mining sector’s attempts to avoid paying a fair share for the mineral wealth they exploit? What about News ltd and its agenda for regime change?
Whatever legitimate message Occupy Whatever might have is being lost in the wave of over-reachers who are dominating the media space. What a shame.
The economic ground is giving way beneath the feet of the Euro leadership….
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-24/european-manufacturing-services-output-shrinks.html
[European services and manufacturing output contracted at the fastest pace in more than two years in October, adding to recession signs as government leaders try to stamp out the sovereign-debt crisis.
A euro-area composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in both industries fell to 47.2 from 49.1 in September, London-based Markit Economics said in an initial estimate today. That’s the lowest since July 2009 and below the 48.8 forecast by economists, according to the median of 17 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.]
[Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 at 11:15 pm | Permalink
Evening all!
Any hints yet from Ghost about Newspoll? ]
apparently support for Rudd is down
[What Twaddle – there are some elements who are using it to raise their public profile – REAL Activists do it quietly and without fanfare.]
So it’s not what you think that counts but whether you keep it to yourself?
[briefly
Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 at 11:17 pm | Permalink
What Twaddle – there are some elements who are using it to raise their public profile – REAL Activists do it quietly and without fanfare.
So it’s not what you think that counts but whether you keep it to yourself?
]
They are no better than those Ambulance Chasing type lawyers IMO.
Frank, are you talking about activists or burglars?
[717
Fulvio Sammut
Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 at 11:19 pm | Permalink
Frank, are you talking about activists or burglars?
]
Sometimes you cannot tell the difference 🙂
So once again, speaking on behalf of the young, the imprisoned, the voiceless…..this is chasing ambulance?
Kersebleptes
If you’ve missed it, then that’s life. I’ve posted the comment by the UNHCR saying the High Court decision on the rendition proposal is coinsistent with its position. You won’t do any research though, because your self-perceived specialty is bullying anyone not supporting the ALP leadership.
[you have been called out on that gloss line about the UNHCR and Malaysia several times]
I can’t be responsible for your failure to read the links which are posted here. As for my “being called out” on what the UNHCR actually said, I don’t know what you’re referring to.
[briefly
Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 at 11:20 pm | Permalink
So once again, speaking on behalf of the young, the imprisoned, the voiceless…..this is chasing ambulance?
]
More emotional twaddle.
[They don’t have to for the definition to be applicable, but hmmm, let’s see. Which jurisdiction sends them against their will? Which jurisdiction tried on the agreement with Malaysia.
You tell me the answer.]
OK – Australia.
The point is, ‘rendition’ is an incorrect use of that word in the context of the Malaysian Solution. The asylum seekers were never to enter this jurisdiction and they were not to be ‘surrendered’ or ‘handed over’ to Malaysia. Malaysia were not demanding they be taken there. They were to be transported there as part of an agreement, a ‘swap’.
I don’t mind you using the word ‘rendition’, but, as a lawyer, you know it’s use in this context is a departure from it’s common legal meaning.
Actually Drake, I thought it a stirring rendition.
When you say “the margin of error is 4.5%”, I do have to laugh. When someone does an opinion poll 2 years out from an election, without a National Party candidate being in the field, an error in the sample size is the least of the problems.
It is a totally ficticous and fanciful exercise, that has limited correlation with what will happen in 2013. Sure it sells papers, and gives journalists something to waffle on about. But is a complete waste of time.
The world would be a better place if journalists reported on the issues, not on polls. And if journalists ceased to interview themselves and actually reported world events.
I have enjoyed pollbludgers analysis at election time, but inspecting the tea leaves this far out from an election is an exercise in futility. They say a week is a long time in politics. Well 104 weeks is even longer.
[I don’t mind you using the word ‘rendition’, but, as a lawyer, you know it’s use in this context is a departure from it’s common legal meaning.]
I’m sure I’m not the only one who instinctively associates the word with Bush/Howard (and onward 🙁 ) era practices of taking people from country to country to be tortured… which is probably why JV keeps using it.
[….More emotional twaddle….]
But Franco, the ideas of the “gravy-train” and “ambulance-chasing” were invoked by you, not me. Are they the “twaddle”? Or is speaking up on behalf of the voiceless? Which is the twaddle? Who is the twaddler here!
[Actually Drake, I thought it a stirring rendition.]
I’m more of a ‘covers band’ man Fulv. ‘Rendition band’ just sounds wierd.
Centre
[Interesting that Richo reckons that a referendum on gay marriage would be defeated.]
Referendum? Richo said on Q & A tonight that if the party right gets its way and there is a conscience vote in parliament on gay marriage, then it will be defeated. This is the touted ‘compromise’ the SDA and other catholic right bosses have apparently told Gillard is what they want becasue they know this, as does she. They might lose a vote on national exective on changing the legisalation as a direct policy, so this is the way to wreck it. And recent reports are she is going to agree, and it will be what they do, regardless of national conference.
I have been saying the same thing for weeks.
I find it hard to feel sorry for asylum seekers whose appeals for refugee status have been refused 2 times or more – FGS, we can’t accept every person who comes here by boat, irrespective of whether or not they’re fleeing persecution in their home countries.
[briefly
Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 at 11:25 pm | Permalink
….More emotional twaddle….
But Franco, the ideas of the “gravy-train” and “ambulance-chasing” were invoked by you, not me. Are they the “twaddle”? Or is speaking up on behalf of the voiceless? Which is the twaddle? Who is the twaddler here!
]
Your emotional twaddle.
Vouiceless my arse – They had money to pay a people Smuggler. Their papers they had up until they reached Indonesia suddenly “Disappear”.
Frank, are you going to CHOGM this week?
But, but, but ‘comeby, would you deprive us all of one of life’s simple pleasures for the sake of logic?
I bet you’re one of those guys who rocks up to the grand final, but doesn’t go to a single qualifying game.
Just the game that counts.
When considering what the Queen would do if asked by a PM Abbott to use Section 59, probably the closest real life example would be the use of Section 26 of The Canadian Constitution to pass the GST in 1990. The Queen approved it. Queen Victoria had rejected the only other attempt to use it in 1874 on the advice of the UK Cabinet.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senate_of_Canada
My Newspoll Prediction.
COALITION 55
ALP 45
Gillard & Abbott tied on Preferred PM.
rishane
There’s no need ot be disurbed. ‘Rendition’ is perfectly apt and correct.
You are simply confusing legal ‘rendition’ with the recent expression ‘extraordinary rendition’, which applied the new adjective to describe governments sending people like Habib and others to Egyptand other places secretly.
I think some Labor apologists are feeling a little uncomfortable that their heroes’ behaviour is properly described in such terms. 😀
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nicolas-sarkozy-tells-david-cameron-to-shut-up-in-euro-clash-2375098.html
Meanwhile in Europe the French tell the Brits to “shut up!”. Seems like the whole world needs a bex and a lie down.
drake
[Actually Drake, I thought it a stirring rendition.
I’m more of a ‘covers band’ man Fulv. ‘Rendition band’ just sounds wierd.]
Funny you should mention that, here is the “Extraordinary Rendition Band” Ole ! 🙂 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhq7sLT6Jp0
[Thornleigh Labor Man
Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 at 11:31 pm | Permalink
Frank, are you going to CHOGM this week?
]
No, are you ?
Gweneth, the way I heard it, Cameron was being an obnoxious pompous twat, and Sarkozy slapped him down.
Frank:
Do you know what the OO twitter is?
[Vouiceless my arse]
They are in detention. They are almost without any rights at all. One way or another, these people have been trafficked – they have relinquished their identity and their liberty and that of their children and have been freighted across the sea and then incarcerated.
Most assuredly, your arse will be heard long before they will.
Evan is going in his capacity as the Nauruan consul General.
Fulvio – I have no doubt about that being the case. I just thought that the general vibe is pretty telling.
[briefly
Posted Monday, October 24, 2011 at 11:38 pm | Permalink
Vouiceless my arse
They are in detention. They are almost without any rights at all. One way or another, these people have been trafficked – they have relinquished their identity and their liberty and that of their children and have been freighted across the sea and then incarcerated.
Most assuredly, your arse will be heard long before they will.
]
More Twaddle.
You support those who don’t play by the rules – ie Money Talks.
They could easily used that money getting on a boat and fly in on a Tourist Visa and THEN claim Asylum.
drake
[I don’t mind you using the word ‘rendition’, but, as a lawyer, you know it’s use in this context is a departure from it’s common legal meaning.]
No it is precisely its ‘common legal meaning’. There is nothing about the forced movement of the 800 that is in any way outside the definition.
I’m interested in why is it so important that it not be. Is it really uneasiness? That the idea might really be a legal and humanitarian crock that didn’t even meet Phillip Ruddock’s human rights standards. And now Labor people want to quibble about the applicable terms? I’d be more concerned about the policy.
confessions,
Interesting cherry picking there.
You quote economist Oliver Marc Hartwich from the free market think tank the Centre for Independent Studies but not Professor Steven Keen, one of the economists who predicted the Global Financial Crisis.
Nor do you quote David Schoeffel from Occupy Melbourne who is articulate in his comments.
Here is my cherry picking 😉
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2011/s3347002.htm
[STEVEN KEEN, ECONOMICS, UNI. OF WESTERN SYDNEY: This is the beginning of a protest against politics being dominated by finance and it’s about time.
DAVID SCHOEFFEL, OCCUPY MELBOURNE: It’s not entirely about the GFC, although I think that is a big factor. Today we’re part of a global economy and to say that something that affects one country won’t affect another is not necessarily true. So, we just have to keep these kinds of concepts in mind that this may also be a movement that’s about foresight as well as problems that are existing in our society.
STEVEN KEEN: It is a silly, ignorant comment and it will offend lots of people quite righteously who were there for very altruistic reasons. If they can’t see there’s altruism in people protesting about the state of society when it’s as dysfunctional as it is now, then they’re just – you know, they should be going off to OPSM for a new pair of glasses.
DAVID SCHOEFFEL: It’s a populist movement which means that anybody can be involved and anybody can have their voice heard. The diversity is that: it’s entirely diverse. I’ve met lawyers and doctors and business analysts and bankers. I’m a tutor and I’m a student.]
Tom the first and best @ 676:
[Section 59 says that “the Queen may” and that means that it is a power specifically given to the Queen, so it would be hard for the High Court to rule that “the Queen cannot”. So that any challenge would be based on the advice to the Queen and the High Court tends to avoid ruling on issues of Constitutional Convention as not in the power of the Judiciary.
If Section 59 said “the Queen in Council” then there may be a case about what “in Council” meant.]
Sorry, Tom, but I still can’t quite comprehend your point.
Beachcomber polls are a way for people to have an input between the big polls and I am in no doubt politicians are interested even if they say they arent. If 2010 proves anything is that polling can facilitate the removal of a first term PM.
Besides what would we talk about here when things are quiet in Canberra?
I am still interested in the Malaysia initiative as a precursor to a regional approach to asylum seeker issues. It is not possible at the moment but I suspect this idea has been shelved, not dropped. At some stage a regional approach will become a necessity, and then it will be taken off the shelf. Maylasia signing the UNHCR treaty would be an interesting change