Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition

The latest weekly Essential Research result has the Coalition’s two-party lead steady on 55-45, although the primary votes suggest Labor would have come very close to gaining a point: their primary vote is up two to 34 per cent, their best result since June, with the Coalition down one to 47 per cent and the Greens down one to 10 per cent. Of the supplementary questions, the most interesting for mine relates to the “Occupy” protests, as they allow for comparison with Essential’s polling on the Convoy of No Confidence in late August. That poll had 40 per cent agreeing the convoy protests represented their views against 38 per cent who disagreed, which was more favourable than I might have expected. However, the current poll has fully 69 per cent expressing agreement with the concerns of the Occupy protesters, even if only 29 per cent support the protests as such. Opinion on their removal is evenly divided.

Other questions have 28 per cent believing the current government favours businesses and 41 per cent believe it favours workers, with respective figures of 61 per cent and 8 per cent for the opposition; 50 per cent supporting greater restriction of coal seam gas mining on farm land; and a ten-point drop since April in the number believing poker machines need more regulation to 52 per cent, with no clear pattern evident for other types of gambling.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,854 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Coalition”

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  2. [Julia is the one banga ranga Silvio cannot banga ranga.]

    If Kristina Keneally was at G20, Silvio will have a premature election

  3. Lynchpin

    [Who the f#ck is Troy (Mavis) Bramston?]
    He was a Rudd staffer and after seeing him on Sky a couple of weeks ago he appears to still harbour deep resentment against those that turfed his ex boss. After seeing that I could well believe that he was the election “leaker”.

  5. [Troy Bramston is Kevin Rudd’s former speechwriter.]

    So he’s the one responsibele for all the prolix garbage: A real, never use one word when you can substitute 10 bloke, who made The Beezer look like the soul of brevity.

    No wonder he hates Gillard.

    She did him out of a job.

  6. Confessions, that is an interesting move. Perhaps the Rudd backers are seeing the poll movement and getting desperate; hence having people like Mavis Bramston get out and about to diss the Govt. Very sad.

  7. Got them stirred and shaken:

    [coogeepaul coogeepaul
    @
    @Thefinnigans what a load of bollocks. Labor will be lucky to have 5 seats left.
    29 minutes ago ]

  12. [No wonder he hates Gillard.

    She did him out of a job.]

    In more ways than one — he went for a job in Gillard’s office in Feb (I think) and was knocked back.

  15. Admittedly I haven’t seen PvO’s show for some weeks now, but Bramston was always the token Laborite on the panel, and always defended the party. But tonight he seems to be having problems doing that.

    He just had a ‘debate’ with Kerryn Phelps on Labor’s achievements in health, and all he could do was cite Rudd era achievements, mostly GP super clinics. Nothing on the disability insurance scheme. Nothing on indigenous health. He admitted he’d never visited the MyHospitals website.

    I’m just stunned. He is more Richo than Richo on tonight’s appearance.

  16. It should be remembered that Bramston has got a new book to push. By all accounts not really pro labor at all.

    Another one who has sold his soul.

    With him, Richo et al News Ltd must be running out of pieces of silver !

  17. Can’t you just see Paul Keating leaning across the despatch box (insert Keatingesque ripostes at your leisure) to deliver this educative accounting to the Oppo in reply to the piddling $60 million IMF question:
    [committing to give resources to the IMF counts as a contingent liability (risk), not an expense, unless the resources are actually called upon. Once they are called upon they count as a loan (an asset) which must be paid back (with interest) in exchange for our government raising cash to provide the loan (a liability equal to the loan to the IMF) Neither of these actions affect either net debt (i.e. the important measure of debt, which is around 6% of GDP in Australia as compared to over 100% in Europe) or the budget bottom line (as this would be a balance sheet, not a cashflow, transaction). Gross debt would increase for the Australian government, but given the lack of government bonds in circulation in Australian money markets, the addition of more teir 1 capital will actually help our financial institutions reach the new requirements under the Basel III reforms (liquiditiy measures put in postGFC to make sure banks have enough capital). Given that this sends an important political message and is also not a bad thing for our domestic economy, it is a good decision by this Government, regardless of political party.]

    Read more: http://www.news.com.au/business/julia-gillard-barack-obama-g20-summit-special-relationship/story-e6frfm1i-1226185248551#ixzz1cjBUWKJx

    That was a comment on the above link by “Oh no! Logic! of public accounting 101” Posted at 11:12 AM Today
    which began with
    [To all the haters and the ill-informed:]

  18. [jenauthor

    Posted Friday, November 4, 2011 at 8:44 pm | Permalink

    No wonder he hates Gillard.

    She did him out of a job.

    In more ways than one — he went for a job in Gillard’s office in Feb (I think) and was knocked back.
    ]

    Feeney was praising Mavis last night – got most upset when I pointed out he was being blinded by his personally loyalty to Rudd .

  19. victoria

    [According to BH, Bramston started dissing the govt in a big way a few weeks ago. He also has launched a book recently]
    That will be when I saw him on the Sky News panel.He was slagging off the government and pushing his book. Interestingly he was very firm in his opinion that there was no way KR could come back because there was no way he would get enough support.

  20. [It should be remembered that Bramston has got a new book to push. By all accounts not really pro labor at all.]

    What’s it called?

    I was Lord Kitchener’s Valet?

  21. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/04/us-g-idUSTRE7A20E920111104

    [The fast-moving Greek fiasco dominated the last meeting of France’s G20 presidency and crushed any hopes by President Nicolas Sarkozy of making a last-minute breakthrough on big early goals such as rethinking the global monetary system.

    The draft statement seen by Reuters showed the G20 is considering an IMF proposal to create a new short-term credit line to help countries hit by crippling economic shocks.

    G20 sources said IMF resource talks were looking at an extension of the fund’s New Agreements to Borrow (NABS), due to expire next year, and the injection of billions of dollars into the global economy through a special allocation of its Special Drawing Rights.

    “It all depends on Sarkozy, how hard he pushes,” one said.

    The plan to ramp up SDRs should also help manage fears rippling through markets over Europe’s crisis.]

    The biggest financial/economic challenge in decades……and JG is on-song with other leaders…..while those complete idiots in the Opposition try and figure out how to scratch themselves…

  22. Rudd and Albo were up in QLD today, talking about further financial relief for flood affected areas – news conference on Rudd’s youtube site.
    Lachlan Harris, another former Rudd staffer, is very supportive of the Gillard Government in his blogs and media outings.

  23. Richo seems to be pulling his head in. I saw him say wtte that the last Newspoll (or was it Abbott giving up on Wilkie) gave the ALP another year… and he thought the DT Rudd stuff was a joke. I guess it’s a bit hard to play the ALP insider when you mostly look like a Murdoch hack.

  26. briefly, Abbott and Hockey’s comments on the IMF were quite ridiculous. They seemed to have no idea how the systems work, and that any extra funds are repaid as a loan with interest. not to mention there has ALWAYS been bipartsan support of the IMF
    I am surprised someone like Costello doesnt step up and give them a serve.

  27. [5815
    confessions

    ……Bramston was always the token Laborite on the panel, and always defended the party. But tonight he seems to be having problems doing that….]

    Ruddocrats trying to whip up discontent…and getting nowhere.

  30. Tobe
    Posted Friday, November 4, 2011 at 8:58 pm | Permalink

    You get the feeling the Libs think the IMF is a socialist plot.

    Except when Costello was mixing it with the IMF.

  32. [5826
    Andrew

    briefly, Abbott and Hockey’s comments on the IMF were quite ridiculous. They seemed to have no idea how the systems work, and that any extra funds are repaid as a loan with interest. not to mention there has ALWAYS been bipartsan support of the IMF
    I am surprised someone like Costello doesnt step up and give them a serve.]

    Completely right, Andrew. They have taken some really asinine positions recently, even by their own dimly-lit standards. They will pay for their attempted opportunism. There is hardly a voter in the country that does not know the European situation is perilous. What would make them feel a bit better about things? Safe hands…Wise judgment and cool temperament and a willingness to act rationally….what have the Liberals shown? Pure ignorance!

  33. Andrew
    [I am surprised someone like Costello doesnt step up and give them a serve.]
    Apparently Pete was a bit of an economic dunce too. Like a good barrister he could learn his Treasury lines, and his delivery made him look like he knew what he was talking about but he’s been out of the loop so long now he wouldn’t know how to even go about working this one out.

  35. [briefly, Abbott and Hockey’s comments on the IMF were quite ridiculous. They seemed to have no idea how the systems work,]

    I think the hubris of saying anything they like no matter how ridiculous is coming home to roost. It is one thing to ‘spin’ local issues with bullcrap, but international stuff, where our image as a nation is at stake … that is quite another.

    Laura Tingle pulled open the can of worms with a big splash on Abbott t’other day …. and now credibility for other journos is on the line. Coorey had a more positive one today as well.

  36. briefly, andrew

    read my 5817

    It’s not my post but an excellent one that I copied from commenter on the article which was linked earlier on here and which is also linked at 5817. That person agrees with the pair of you and is plain-speaking and articulate.

    I should have broken it up into smaller pars to make it more readable.

  37. kezza2

    [Apparently Pete was a bit of an economic dunce too. Like a good barrister he could learn his Treasury lines, and his delivery made him look like he knew what he was talking about but he’s been out of the loop so long now he wouldn’t know how to even go about working this one out]
    Which would explain why when he put up the “For Hire” sign post politics he was greeted with tumbleweeds and Frank C’s crickets.

  38. [Apparently Pete was a bit of an economic dunce too. Like a good barrister he could learn his Treasury lines, and his delivery made him look like he knew what he was talking about but he’s been out of the loop so long now he wouldn’t know how to even go about working this one out.]
    Beauty – let’s hope that some of the other Guardians of the Future Fund have some greater competence on such matters 🙁

  39. [I’d love to see more of Lachlan Harris on the media and in places like Q+A.]

    Labor affiliated commentators only seem to get a gig in our media today if they are willing to attack the party.

  41. jenauthor:

    I had completely forgotten that Bramston had applied for a job in the PM’s office and been turned down.

    But in any case, his commentary until recently has been firmly locked behind the party. I’m thinking therefore that there’s something else which is influencing him.

  42. quite right, kezza….they have disclosed their complete lack of respect for the electorate and for the obligations of office…..they are a miserable excuse for an alternative government….

  43. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    You got the feeling that the Daily Telegraph piece on Ruddstoration few days ago was designed to influence this weekend Newspoll #auspol
    5 seconds ago

  48. [Socialists ! ? They are everywhere.When did you last look under your bed for an infestation of socialists ?]

    I find a good going over with the Dyson gets rid of any nasty socialists under my bed! LOL – since we don’t seem to have smiley faces any more!

  49. i didnt mean to suggest that costello was an expert. by all accounts he was just propped up by a good Treasury. I just think this is the sort of time an elder statesman type pops up to try to save damage to the Liberal brand

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