Harry’s reasons

Harry Jenkins has ended the parliamentary year with a surprise, announcing he will resign as Speaker today:

In a statement to Parliament, Speaker Jenkins said he’d divorced himself from party political matters in order to carry out his duties in a non-partisan manner. “In this era of minority government I have progressively become frustrated at this stricture,” he said. “My desire is to be able to participate in policy and parliamentary debate, and this would be incompatible with continuing in the role of Speaker.”

Which is no huge deal if that’s all there is to it. But with the rift between Deputy Speaker Peter Slipper and his party widening of late – the LNP is presently considering disciplinary action against him – the suspicion exists that the government has reached an arrangement with him. If so, the return of Jenkins to the floor would enable the government to win confidence motions 76-73 rather than 75-74. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: Events are moving quicker than my iPad typing speed. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports:

The Liberal MP, Peter Slipper, is likely to become the next Speaker of the House of Representatives after Labor’s Harry Jenkins resigned this morning, shocking the Parliament on its final sitting day for 2011. Labor MPs will be asked to approve Mr Slipper’s nomination at a special caucus meeting scheduled for 10am.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,458 comments on “Harry’s reasons”

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  1. [BK
    Posted Thursday, November 24, 2011 at 7:41 pm | Permalink

    Uhlmann pressing Abbott rather harder than usual.]

    I’m relieved I’ve missed his softer interviews. He did ask him an occasional awkward question but too often let Abbott’s blather in reply just pass through to the keeper. No follow-up or probing.

    I haven’t got anything to say about his bias, but a bit more serious attempts at interviewing would make him a lot more professional.

  2. Tone is the Uriah Heep of Australian politics as witnessed on 7.5

    [ Wiki: The character created by Dickens is notable for his cloying humility, obsequiousness, and insincerity, making frequent references to his own “‘umbleness”. His name has become synonymous with being a yes man]

    Though, our Tone has made an art form of the ‘no man’. The yes man, no man.

  3. [@hughriminton Harry Jenkins says his throat-slitting gesture was to tell Andrew Meares to stop taking pics from the press gallery.]

    I hope Karen Middleton is going to apologise to Harry and explain to the viewers why she said that Harry’s throat slitting gesture to the Press Gallery confirmed to some of them wtte that he had been done in. Her report tonight turned out to be distorted but the selfrighteous Ms Middleton needs to explain herself now.

  4. Bruce Hawker just rolled his eyes when Richo said the 2 biggest problems the govt has carried over from the Rudd era are “pink batts and school halls”.

    !

  5. Geoff Gallop says ALP lost the strategic interest in conservation issues, therefore enabling a space for the Greens to occupy.

    blue-green would probably agree.

  6. [Could Slipper possibly win Fisher with ALP preferences at the next election?
    Any thoughts?]

    Well Slipper won the seat in 2010, at about 54-46 last election. I guess that depends on how much of that vote was for him and how much was for “LNP candidate.” If a small amount of that was for him directly, it’s conceivable that, if the ALP didn’t contest or ran a token and preferences from the ALP and the Greens were directed to him over the LNP, he could win it. Big if, though. Either way, ALP collusion could make the seat quite competitive but I wouldn’t waste resources there though.

  7. Folks like Karen and William are unlikely to buy that Harry left on his accord because they prefer a conspiracy. I happen to believe him because he is an honourable man and would not lie about it.

  8. As usual Greg Jericho is a good read:

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/3688494.html

    I like to think that the Malaysian deal was the work fo a very cunning poly who wanted onshore processing, Greg has a different take:

    [In the end you wonder whether the High Court killed the Malaysian deal out of respect for the law, or just to put the policy, and the ALP, out of its misery.]

  9. [Darn
    Posted Thursday, November 24, 2011 at 8:03 pm | Permalink

    I’ve completely changed my opinion of Tony Abbott after seeing him on 7.30 tonight. Uhlmann asked him what he would have done if he was in the same position as Gillard and he put his hand on his heart and said he would never have descended to such depths as she did today. That’s good enough for me.]

    That’s where Uhlmann lost all respect. Surely he couldn’t have forgotten Abbott’s role in getting Hanson.

  10. [William Bowe

    Posted Thursday, November 24, 2011 at 8:30 pm | Permalink

    Frank, I have allowed you to promote your blog here seven times in the past two days.
    ]
    How about an apology for your comments re Margaret River and Crystal Neth labs – knowing fullv well the disaster that is taking place as I type ?

  11. fredn

    This is also good from Greg Jericho:

    Before the economic vandalism of the Carbon Tax we then had the interlude of ALP trying to destroy its progressive credentials in one fell swoop through the Malaysian Deal.

    [It takes a special kind of policy to make Scott Morrison sound caring, but the Malaysian deal did it. Morrison, who earlier in the year had criticised the Government paying for relatives of the Christmas Island boat tragedy to fly to Sydney for the funeral, was able to talk about compassion.

    The ALP found itself for the first time actually outdoing the Liberal Party on “toughness” against asylum seekers. Did it bring any political joy? Unsurprisingly, no. The electorate rather oddly seemed to expect the Labor Party to act like a Labor Party, and when it saw it trying to be more Liberal Party than the Liberal Party it instead decided to support the original version not the twisted funhouse mirror version that the ALP became on asylum seekers.]

  12. On SkyNews the bitter and twisted Richo really is a pluperfect caricature of the sly machiavellian schemer that we all knew he was.

    His hatred for the ALP seems to exude from his very pores, and his venal sneering and unyielding contempt for the party he was once an influential member of brands him as a first class rat and a solid gold sellout for this thirty pieces of Murdoch silver.

    Geoff Gallup, Verity Firth and Bruce Hawker should undergo decontamination procedures when they get off the set.

  13. “Frank, I have allowed you to promote your blog here seven times in the past two days.”

    And he is still been quite rude to you, sadly.

  14. I haven’t had long to think about this cunning strategic move but a few points spring to mind:

    Short-term:
    1. The ALP will go into the Xmas break happy and re-energised
    2. The Coalition will go into the Xmas break angry

    Longer term:
    1. This will probably be like Kristina K’s proroguing move (will come back to bite ALP)
    2. Every time we hear about Fraser breaking convention in 1975 we now have ammo!!

    Hehe (I know I am evil, but you know its true don’t you???)

  15. Geoff Gallop makes a lot of sense. Has perfectly summed up the balancing act ALP leaders must bridge: the left of the ALP is reactionary on economics, while the right of the party is reactionary on social issues, and what a difficult mix this is for achieving party policy.

    Gallop doesn’t seem to represent the kind of ideological hysteria you see in many NSW ALPers like Arbib, Bitar and Richo. WA on the whole seems to produce moderate MPs more generally, both Labor and Liberal. Even Crook isn’t as feral as say Hartsuyker.

  16. A large component of the Sunshine coast are retired oldies that have voted Liberal since 1950 something so unless the Libs implode and Argentina invade Norfolk island I don’t think Slipper has a chance.
    On another note I suspect Brandis would be looking at copyright laws, after all, how can Slipper be a Liberal rat, surely there is only room for one Rodent in the Liberal party.

  17. joe2 – there was talk a few months ago that Harry would be happy to give the job away so perhaps he was waiting to see what happened with Slipper’s preselection or the end of year. Albo did mention today that Harry had to miss the Labor get together last night so which he would have wanted to go to.

    Harry is experienced and can be a big help from the backbench.

  18. Frank,
    I have been reading your blog but not posting anywhere much. This week was not good, it was my lost dog’s birthday on Thursday. I will post there when I have a bit more energy. I enjoy both PB and AFV.

  19. I’d say that if the LNP Primary Vote goes below 40%, Peter Slipper should win if the Greens preference him above Labor. Above 40%, and he’d probably miss out.

    He’d also probably need a Primary Vote of at least 20% to still be in the game, which seems to be rare with defections to Independent. However, he’d be the member for 20 years, so that might be achievable.

    He’d probably end up against Mal Brough as the LNP candidate, so Fisher should be an interesting division to watch in 2013.

  20. [2. Every time we hear about Fraser breaking convention in 1975 we now have ammo!!]

    Oh really? It is merely following the well established convention set up by Fraser and Howard with Field and Coulson respectively.

  21. [Every time we hear about Fraser breaking convention in 1975 we now have ammo!!]

    No comparison. Look up Mal Coulsen in your browser and you’ll see the precedent.

  22. [William Bowe
    Posted Thursday, November 24, 2011 at 8:41 pm | Permalink
    Sorry Fredn, but I don’t care to play host to intra-blog shitfights.]

    Not a problem. I was going to ignore the response.

  23. [No comparison. Look up Mal Coulsen in your browser and you’ll see the precedent.]

    Don’t need to, I remember it well. Particularly the enraged (actually spitting with vitriol across the chamber) Senator Ray. He weren’t a happy chappy.

    An ALP Senator voting against the ALP and being removed from the party isn’t the same thing as pushing out a sitting speaker, making him take a pay cut and then suring up your numbers.

    A Sussex street classic. Noyce.

  24. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    It’s good to see & hear the Laborites on #Slynews discussing, dissecting & criticizing issues facing ALP rather than hacks from IPA #auspol
    51 seconds ago

  25. Caught the tail end of 7.30 this evening and have been out all day and so am only just catching up with events.

    Wow. What a day to choose to go AWOL from the computer and TV/radio!

    You know there has been a paradigm shift in the media when you see Chris Uhlmann giving Tony Abbott a hard time as well.

    My gob is officially smacked.

    I think I can now say with some confidence that the worm has turned.

    Abbott is a dead man walking. It is now a question of when, not if.

  26. [Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, November 24, 2011 at 8:49 pm | Permalink
    Mod Lib,

    But you love to keep talking crap anyway!]

    This is gold for me GG. All those holier-than-thou Laborites telling us how they hate the liberals for breaking convention to win power in ’75 can have a little serve back now.

    Did any posters make any comments about this being sleezy?

  27. [Did Fraser have any say in who QLD put up to fill the vacancy?]

    It was Joh’s work but Malcolm could be charged with receiving stolen goods…

  28. Thefinnigans TheFinnigans天地有道人无道
    @
    @AlboMP Albo, well done. Keep it up. But watch it, Abbott will not last thru 2012
    50 seconds ago

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