Harry’s reasons

Harry Jenkins has ended the parliamentary year with a surprise, announcing he will resign as Speaker today:

In a statement to Parliament, Speaker Jenkins said he’d divorced himself from party political matters in order to carry out his duties in a non-partisan manner. “In this era of minority government I have progressively become frustrated at this stricture,” he said. “My desire is to be able to participate in policy and parliamentary debate, and this would be incompatible with continuing in the role of Speaker.”

Which is no huge deal if that’s all there is to it. But with the rift between Deputy Speaker Peter Slipper and his party widening of late – the LNP is presently considering disciplinary action against him – the suspicion exists that the government has reached an arrangement with him. If so, the return of Jenkins to the floor would enable the government to win confidence motions 76-73 rather than 75-74. Stay tuned.

UPDATE: Events are moving quicker than my iPad typing speed. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports:

The Liberal MP, Peter Slipper, is likely to become the next Speaker of the House of Representatives after Labor’s Harry Jenkins resigned this morning, shocking the Parliament on its final sitting day for 2011. Labor MPs will be asked to approve Mr Slipper’s nomination at a special caucus meeting scheduled for 10am.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,458 comments on “Harry’s reasons”

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  1. [And a 4% pro ALP gap (Nov 19th 2010) has become a 14% pro Lib gap now.

    I suspect liberals are OK with an 18% gain over the course of the year actually!]

    Ah yes, the argumentum ad populum. Popular fallacy indulged in by sides who currently lead in opinion polls. As I understand, this was a pastime for Laborites, this time 2 years ago.

    I will give you that though. They certainly still have a polling advantage. Of course, nowhere near as great as a couple of months ago but still, yes, they’re set to win right now. Still, I wouldn’t pop the champagne cork too early. Things can change. With a year and a half to go til the next election (yes, the government will likely survive til then) anything is possible – if just evidenced by the fact that a 7% swing can happen in one year and, indeed a 17% swing in two.

    Don’t mistake that for a “you watch, things will turn around!” post. But more “don’t count your chickens before they hatch.” The deadliest two things in politics are complacency and hubris.

  2. [Andrew
    Posted Thursday, November 24, 2011 at 10:52 pm | Permalink

    Mod Lib, youve done yourself no favours today. At times you seem to see reason, but today you have been as bad as Abbott. How you can try to spin today as bad for Labor is Shanahanesque]

    “as bad as Abbott”?

    Huh?

    “Bad for Labor”

    Not in the short term. Look at my earlier posts, I said the ALP will go to Xmas cockahoot and the Libs will be downtrodden.

    I am talking about the longer term.

  3. [So after three months of blowing the only free cash i had on Nails for my coffin i gave up. ]

    Good on you Rummel. I lost my Dad (a long-term smoker) to cancer a little over 3 years ago so I hate the cancer-sticks with a passion. Your body will thank you in the long run I’m sure.

  4. [“as bad as Abbott”]

    Im sorry no one here is as bad as Abbott, even us libs. He has a special place all by him self and us mere mortals can not get close to his empty speedo abilities.

  5. [It was one of those quirky events that gets picked up and goes viral and global. So links are everywhere. Try out the totally innocent google search “google fairfield college”.]

    Of course I never doubted you poroti!

  7. musrum,

    Thanks for that. Would have got back earlier but I’ve been watching Leveson (highly recommended) and Tony Jones trying his worst against Albo (no contest).

  8. [They certainly still have a polling advantage. Of course, nowhere near as great as a couple of months ago but still, yes, they’re set to win right now.]

    Carey M:

    Actually the lead was 16% 2 months ago and is 14% now, but nevertheless, its not the Coalition who will be worried about the polling.

  9. Tony Jones tonight basically instructed to not use the word Noalition on his show.

    Albo was gobsmacked. We can now expect Jones to prevent the use of other ‘jocular shorthands’ like Pink Batts.

  10. Carey,

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2011/11/24/harrys-reasons/comment-page-19/#comment-1095810

    [the Libs are definitely good with their campaigning skills and know how to find the issues that stick with everyday Australians]

    It would be impossible for them to make anything stick if they didn’t have 90 per cent of the media behind them doing the heavy applying of the ‘glue’.

    Their talent isn’t so much ‘campaigning skills’ as having News Limited, Their ABC, skinhead radio and commercial TV onside.

  11. [Actually the lead was 16% 2 months ago and is 14% now, but nevertheless, its not the Coalition who will be worried about the polling.]

    Nobody said it would be?

    The benefit from today would be a stabler government and an easier time with legislation. That’s what Abbott et al are pissed about, not opinion polls.

  12. It will be interesting two see how things pan out over the next few months with the Libs. I am certain there will be some worried big business types who will be rethinking their support of Abbott and co.

    The truth is the LNP brought this on themselves and I am staggered that they didn’t take this scenario into account, or did they ?

  13. Did anyone else find Jones annoying in his questioning of Albo? I thought he was way out of line with his request/instruction that Albo cease using the term “noalition”. Albo handled it well but I would have liked him to respond with something like – don’t invite me onto your show and then tell me how to answer your bloody questions. Just sit there and shut up and listen.

  14. Lets not put sugar on it: Abbott got completely slamdunked today.

    He’d have one more vote today if only he’d *followed convention* and paired the speaker in the first place.

    But now he’s 2 votes to the worse, with no one to blame but himself. What a turkey.

    Stick that in yer pipe, federal LNP, and smoke it over the long break. Look at the good fortune and Xmas cheer life with Tony brings.

  15. [The benefit from today would be a stabler government and an easier time with legislation. That’s what Abbott et al are pissed about, not opinion polls.]

    Most definitely.

    And poor old Tony is certainly pissed off: quite true.

    You are also right about not counting your chickens before they hatch: can’t argue with that one either so you are 3/3.

    I just think the ALP should be careful not to get too excited by this tactic. Could get harder for ministers in QT, and could get messy if Slipper has some mud thrown on him or evidence comes out Jenkins wasn’t exactly eager. Thats all I’m saying.

  18. [I am staggered that they didn’t take this scenario into account, or did they ?]

    …perhaps a double agent?

    (I wish my mind didn’t work like this, truly I do)

  19. @Darn

    I think Albo has had enough of the MSM’s crap, they let the other mob slag the govt at every opportunity so Albo got in a few shots at he end of he interview.

  20. [Carey Moore
    Posted Thursday, November 24, 2011 at 11:15 pm | Permalink
    Darn, has Jones made similar requests of Coalition interviewees who keep repeating party nicknames and catchphrases?]

    many times

  21. Paul_J

    I strongly suspect the students were inspired by Bart Simpson in the Principal Charming episode.
    [Meanwhile, Bart gets in trouble for using sodium tetrasulfate (a potent herbicide) to spell his name out in the grass and gets sentenced to reseed the field. ]

  22. [request/instruction that Albo cease using the term “noalition”]

    In other words, if we grant you the benefit of appearing on ‘our’ network you will be on your best behaviour and shall not mock the party line.

  23. Mod Lib, I agree. This could play out in a multitude of ways. As I said earlier, the “knifing” angle has the potential to be a big talking point. While not in the gravity of Rudd, it still could revive sentiment, esp. in NSW/QLD.

  26. I can’t wait to see what revenge the LNP try to bung on Slipper for out witting them at every turn over a couple of years. It is always a joy to behold the dirty linen being washed in public.

  30. fascinating day – even though it looks like it was all carefully planned, Julia and Albo both insisting they only knew what Harry was going to do this morning

    my money would be on that being the case

  31. I doubt what happened today will have any long-term impact on the polls unless it comes out that the PM was involved in discussions and negotiations with Slipper. It may improve things for the LNP in QLD where Labor is already on the nose but not a great deal outside of Slipper’s seat.

    It has shown that when it comes to playing grubby and trashing parliamentary convention our PM is no better than Abbott however that will be lost on most people. I was very disgusted with Abbott over the pairing issue a while back and now Gillard has sunk to the same level. Neither deserve the respect of Aussies.

  32. Leroy
    [Don’t know if this has been posted.

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/slipper-long-plotted-against-us-lnp-20111124-1nwov.html

    Slipper long plotted against us: LNP
    Gabrielle Dunlevy
    November 24, 2011 – 6:19PM
    AAP ]
    I’m surprised about the surprise. I was surprised,nay amazed, after the election that there were murmurings about Slipper taking the speakers job. That being the case why the surprise he jumped when it was canvassed last year AND considering all the “love’ people skills and crew have showered him with since then. ….NOT.

  33. [my money would be on that being the case]

    More will no doubt come out later, but some commentators are suggesting Albo had a key role in courting Slipper.

  34. Could get harder for ministers in QT

    And this is a bad thing? As has been discussed on here ad nauseum, the standards of Parliamentary behaviour under Harry Jenkins have been very low; Harry Jenkins had a tough hand dealt to him, for sure, but he simply had no respect and could not control the chamber.

    Now Peter Slipper may not be the best parliamentarian to ever take a seat in the HoR, but at least there is a chance of him asserting some authority over the chamber that Harry Jenkins never could. As I recall, he wasn’t afraid to use his powers over Sophie Mirabella when acting as Speaker, and it will be interesting if he discovers and maintains a backbone.

    If he can do that, including being brutal against the government side when justified, that will be a major improvement in our democracy.

  36. Interesting stuff in the SMH article

    [
    The opposition decried the manoeuvre, revealed at 9am yesterday, as ”squalid” and ”sordid” but tried immediately to thwart it by trying to broker a similar deal with the NSW independent Rob Oakeshott.

    Using the West Australian Nationals crossbencher, Tony Crook, as an intermediary, Tony Abbott and Julie Bishop worked on Mr Oakeshott throughout the morning.

    Mr Abbott phoned him at midday to offer the deal he had refused the independent during the negotiations last year to form government – being speaker but still able to move private members’ legislation. ”Whatever you want to do to improve the working of this place, we’ll back you,” Mr Abbott offered.
    ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/gillard-gives-abbott-the-slip-20111124-1nx0d.html#ixzz1ecsps6h9

  38. [Darn, has Jones made similar requests of Coalition interviewees who keep repeating party nicknames and catchphrases?]

    Carey

    The incorrect assumption in your question is that Albo was repeating the word “noalition”. The fact is, Jones voiced his disapproval after Albo had said it just once. As far as I am concerned, Jones was way out of line – and if he tries something like that again he’ll probably be told where to get off.

  39. So Abbott was trying to butter-up Oakey. I hope Oakey enjoyed telling him to get stuffed.

    [The opposition decried the manoeuvre, revealed at 9am yesterday, as ”squalid” and ”sordid” but tried immediately to thwart it by trying to broker a similar deal with the NSW independent Rob Oakeshott.

    Using the West Australian Nationals crossbencher, Tony Crook, as an intermediary, Tony Abbott and Julie Bishop worked on Mr Oakeshott throughout the morning.

    Mr Abbott phoned him at midday to offer the deal he had refused the independent during the negotiations last year to form government – being speaker but still able to move private members’ legislation. ”Whatever you want to do to improve the working of this place, we’ll back you,” Mr Abbott offered.

    Although Mr Oakeshott had sought exactly that arrangement last year, he rejected it yesterday, telling the Herald he was ”once bitten, twice shy” and that ”the offer was being made for all the wrong reasons”. He also declined the offer because he did not have the numbers.

    His colleague, Tony Windsor, explained to him that the whole reason for elevating Mr Slipper was to take a Coalition vote out of play and give the government one extra.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/gillard-gives-abbott-the-slip-20111124-1nx0d.html#ixzz1ecs5wqQr
    ]
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/gillard-gives-abbott-the-slip-20111124-1nx0d.html

  41. I was very disgusted with Abbott over the pairing issue a while back and now Gillard has sunk to the same level.

    Ah, another DavidWH “my side is bad but in order to say that I have to do the both sides are equally bad” schtick.

    I know it’s hard, but seriously:

    Tony Abbott was the one who initially agreed with the Independents that the Speaker should be paired, and then walked away from that because things didn’t go his way.

    Tony Abbott has known for ages that Peter Slipper was interested in the Speaker’s job – the fact that he didn’t have the “people skills” to keep Peter Slipper in the tent speaks volumes as to Tony Abbott’s abilities to motivate and inspire people.

    “Trashing parliamentary convention” seems to currently be code for “this hasn’t been done before and we don’t like it, but we can’t articulate any actual reason why it’s either against the rules or bad for the system”.

    Personally I would dream that this ongoing festering sore that is the way the Speaker is chosen and how his or her vote is used could be resolved in a way that makes the Speaker genuinely independent. It ain’t going to happen though – once this Parliament is over it’ll be back to situation dysfunctional with a partisan useless Speaker from the government side.

  42. They did come unstuck DavidWH, the LNP thought that by not putting their own solid Deputy Speaker up then they would be in Government if a Labor member died or went awol but that never happened and the strategy of the LNP since the election has today fallen over.

  43. Cyril it seems to me that if the government is intending to trash a convention then trying to justify this by laying blame on someone else just compounds the deceit. Albanese tonight on Lateline showed he is no better than Abbott. We really are in a race to the bottom at present and today Labor have got their nose in front.

  44. [‘Whatever you want to do to improve the working of this place, we’ll back you,” Mr Abbott offered. ]

    Abbott is pathetic. He ridicules the indies for not supporting his position and makes life for them as difficult as possible for over a year now. Then when he is desperate he tries to mend the relationship. The man is a buffoon.

  46. [Cyril it seems to me that if the government is intending to trash a convention]
    Conventions are often ‘trashed’. Conventions are written in stone.

  48. I think a good line of rhetoric for the ALP to use is that they are “honouring a man who was unceremoniously knived (maybe a different verb) after years of loyal service because he didn’t agree with the party bosses on things.” As for Jenkins “He resigned because the stress of having to deal with the childish behaviour of the opposition was becoming too much to deal with and he started to dislike having to keep his opinions to himself” or wtte. Spin it as two Liberal wrongs being corrected. (The second one would be effective coming directly from the horse’s mouth)

  49. [Ah, another DavidWH “my side is bad but in order to say that I have to do the both sides are equally bad” schtick.]

    You’ve picked it Jackol.

  50. Gary

    I keep hearing it’s going to be bad news for the government, but have yet to see any hard evidence of this. It’s all rumors at the moment from what I can tell. Having said that, I may have missed something along the way.

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