Morgan face-to-face: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition

The latest Morgan poll, covering last weekend’s regular face-to-face survey round from a sample of 864, shows Labor gaining two points since the previous poll (which combined results from the two weekends previous) on both two-party preferred measures, with the Coalition now leading 54.5-45.5 on respondent-allocated preferences and 51.5-48.5 on the more reliable method which distributes preferences as per the result of the previous election. Labor is up two points on the primary vote to 36.5 per cent, with the Coalition down 1.5 per cent to 45.5 per cent and the Greens up half a point to 12 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,345 comments on “Morgan face-to-face: 54.5-45.5 to Coalition”

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  1. [Why is Frank still here?]

    Frank’s a valued member of PB, even though he and I usually disagree over most things. I value his input always.

  2. [The site is usually on its nanna nap at this time of the day.]

    GG – cracked up at that! OH and I sat down to take a break and watch a film after lunch. We both fell asleep. Blo,,y chairs are too comfy!

  3. [So the Libs turning a blind eye for 21 years is okay, and now today the PM is responsible? This man has totally lost his marbles!]

    Very much so!

  4. [BY eating snags from the supermarket on the barbecue this summer, you are unknowingly being converted to Islam, according to Cowan MHR Luke Simpkins.

    In a speech to Federal Parliament yesterday, Mr Simpkins accused meat producers, including Harvey Beef, Inghams and Steggles of “deceiving” West Australians by not labelling their products as Halal food.

    “So when you go to Coles, Woolworths or IGA, or other supermarkets, you cannot then purchase the meat for your Aussie BBQ without the influence of this minority religion,” he said.]

    Y’know, if this was kosher meat, Simpkins would be accused (rightly) of anti-Semitism. But whenever a wingnut like this has a spray against Islam, it’s all OK.

  5. http://www.hawkerbritton.com/hawker-britton-media/publications/488/how-the-independents-have-voted-in-the-house.htm

    [How The Independents Have Voted In The House
    25th November 2011

    The Parliamentary Sitting year concluded yesterday, 24 November 2011.

    The Government has maintained its successful record of gaining support from the Independents on significant pieces of legislation requiring a division over the course of this Parliament so far, gaining a majority in 96% of divisions on substantive matters. To date, the Government has lost only one division on an amendment to a Bill, which was in February 2011:]

    Check it out, has links in the text to charts and other docs.

  6. http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Left-wing-reformer-elected-ALP-president-NX74P

    [Left wing reformer elected ALP president
    Published 3:38 PM, 25 Nov 2011 Last update 3:38 PM, 25 Nov 2011
    AAP

    A staunch supporter of reform in the Labor party has been re-elected its national president.

    Jenny McAllister, who hails from the Left faction, defeated five other candidates for the position in a ballot of party members ahead of the national conference in Sydney starting on December 2.

    The two vice-presidents will be Right faction member and Transport Workers Union secretary Tony Sheldon, who rose to prominence on the back of the Qantas dispute, and Victorian MP Jane Garrett from the Left.]

    More in the article

  7. This little black duck@106

    Thanks musrum. Works within Tampermonkey.

    No Problem. And thanks for showing me Tampermonkey
    bemused@110

    TLBD @ 106
    Also works without Tampermonkey. So why would I need Tampermonkey now?

    For me, it’s a nice way to maintain the script (like I used to be able to do in Firefox).
    Doing it without it was a huge pain in the arse.

  8. Religion, and racial prejudices aside, meat should be labelled. The 4 corners show made us aware of animal welfare. I for one no longer eat meat. I still eat fish. Justice Kirby spoke with such eloquence and tenderness about these poor animals butchered so cruelly that he converted me.

  9. Leroy

    [Full Luke Simpkin statement re Halal sausages. Reaction to that local press article is snowballing on twitter.

    http://www.openaustralia.org/debates/?id=2011-11-24.111.1&s=halal#g111.2 ]
    This guy is a true blue tinfoil hat wearing fruitbat. He could have been forgiven for just tabling the petition on behalf of others but reading his statement it is clear he has bought into the “Sausages of Apostasy” conspiracy theory . It is good to see his statements are being treated in an appropriate manner.

  10. Just watched lateline interview of Tony Jones with Anthony Albanese

    Jones’ comment on “Noalition” was just downright rude and inappropriate in the context. I suspect Jones generally quite often crossed the line a bit between aggresive and narky/rude: compensate for weakish line of questioning that could not elicit whatever it was that he wanted to hear? The coverage in the media suggests to me a lot of people professionally not happy than not a one saw apparently saw this coming.

    By the by, when was the last time Abbott apeared on Lateline for a grilling like that; not sure he wouldhave held up as well as Albanese

  11. [jonkudelka jon kudelka
    Christian festive season barbecue tip: exorcise your sausages with a little Holy water while they’re on the grill just in case.
    2 minutes ago]

  12. [rosa

    Andrew Wilkie said it was a great move. Said it would ensure stability for the govt]

    Yes, but only after trying very hard to broker a deal where Oakeshott was made speaker, so that his (Wilkie’s) leverage could be maintained.]

  13. The CM is often very slow to upload its premium articles to the web, and I haven’t see reference to this one yet.

    Pity. If you’re not a Lib supporter, this one by Steven Scott & Anna Caldwell is a cracker that has me asking, yet again, what have the Libs done to that long-term Tory Rag, The Courier Mail! LNP fury as Peter Slipper defects to replace Harry Jenkins as Speaker. No folks! That’s not Fury at the ALP, or Gillard, that’s the Good Old L of L-NP rounding on Somylay and the handling of Slipper!

    [But Mr Abbott is furious with the LNP’s decision to threaten Mr Slipper with expulsion from the party or a fast-tracked preselection and believes this handed Ms Gillard a boost to her political stocks …

    Mr Abbott said Labor had trashed the traditions of the Westminster parliamentary democracy by refusing to nominate one of their own MPs as Speaker. But he and many others in the Coalition have privately directed their anger at the Queensland LNP.

    “There is what could only be described as white hot fury at the way this has been handled by the LNP senior office bearers,” said a senior Coalition source close to Mr Abbott.

    Another senior source said: “They completely defied the wishes of the leader and went against all of Tony’s advice.” …

    LNP state director Michael O’Dwyer said Mr Slipper’s defection had been planned weeks ago and the rogue MP had warned he would sabotage Campbell Newman’s bid to become state premier.

    The move has also fuelled questions about Mr Abbott’s control over his party.

    “Tony Abbott is now past the point of no return,” LNP MP Alex Somlyay said.

    “There is no way the Independents would switch to support the Coalition.”]

  14. [victoria
    Posted Friday, November 25, 2011 at 4:14 pm | Permalink
    Laocoon

    Over time Tony Jones has become a pompous fool]

    Unfortunately I agree with that. I used to have a lot of time for him.

  15. [By the by, when was the last time Abbott apeared on Lateline for a grilling like that;]

    Apprently the last time Tone went on LL was in April 2010.

  16. gig

    There is no comparison with the situation here and that shown in Indonesia. The only real difference is that before halal slaughter, the invocation of Allah’s name over the animal is required.

    Animals Australia notes.

    http://www.animalsaustralia.org/features/ritual_slaughter.php

    [All cattle killed in Australian abattoirs are restrained upright and stunned during slaughter, including those killed in compliance with halal (Islamic) requirements. A small number of cattle killed for the Jewish community (kosher slaughter) are stunned immediately after the throat cut]

    There are a number of nutters out there over this issue and at least one pollie it seems.

    [Boycott Vegemite
    PETITION TO THE HONOURABLE THE SPEAKER AND MEMBERS OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ASSEMBLED IN PARLIAMENT: The petition of certain citizens of Australia asking the House to review the decision by Kraft Foods Limited to label Vegemite as Halal certified.]
    http://www.islammonitor.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=3287:boycott-vegemite&catid=180&Itemid=18

  17. Van Onselen doing a job on Slipper for his Party. He also said that Speakers re pollies who have no hope of getting a ministry and are at the bottom of the pile. Wow, is he including Billy Snedden in that.

    What a louse PVO is.

  18. BH:

    Unfortunately I can’t stomach Julian Leeser, and am sick of seeing IPA people commenting on politics, so am not watching.

  19. OPT

    Well, Alex is nailing his colours to the ABA (Anyone But Abbott) mast:
    [“Tony Abbott is now past the point of no return,” LNP MP Alex Somlyay said.

    “There is no way the Independents would switch to support the Coalition.”]
    Time to start counting…

    The dressing down of Kelly O’Dwyer would also suggest that not all the class of ’10 are uniformly Abbotistas (in face is KO’D reaction a continuation of the Howard-Costello war to the next generation?)

  20. gigi

    Most of the fish you eat dies of the piscine equivalent of asphyxiation after very traumatic events involved in netting or trapping.

    If you rely on vegetables and fruit for your diet, you may like to consider that human plant foods:

    (1) require the deaths of various organisms during ploughing. These deaths are usually the result of crushing, cutting or changes to ambient moisture conditions. Animals which die during ploughing include small animals, birds, lizards and mammals.
    (2) require several spraying events during the growing season. These result in the primary deaths of untold millions of small animals and secondary deaths of larger organisms that build up concentrations of various toxins.
    (3) may require specialised animal pest suppression events including shooting, poisoning and electrocution.
    (3) require a harvesting event that usually results in the deaths of numerous animals. For example, grain mowing often results in birds being cut to pieces by mowers. Stubble burning may involve various creatures being burned alive.
    (4) require transport from farm to market/storage that results in untold numbers of animals being killed on roads. Some transport results in mass deaths of animals. For example, wheat spillage along roads during harvest time attracts large flocks of seed-eaters which are killed by subsequent vehicles.
    (5) requires the application of sprays to suppress small animals and rodents during storage and manufacture.

    I will not go into the details of the very bad treatment meted out to humans, including the use of child labour, in the production of many plantation foods, or the human deaths involved in high risk wild harvesting such as those in blue water fisheries. Nor will I go into the considerable toll in injuries and ill-health associated with most rural production systems even in developed countries. Being gored to death by a bull or being crushed under a tractor gets you into the news. But they are only a tiny tip of the occupational toll in human food producing industries. It includes an exoterica of animal/human transmission of diseases that makes rural practices a little more interesting than they might otherwise be.

    While I acknowledge that there are considerable variations within and between production systems, there is no such thing as a death free or pain free lunch.

  21. Loacoon,

    It is good to remember that Abbott only won the LOTO role with 1 vote. That means half of his team are not totally convinced or have different policy preferences.

  22. BH

    You said it. PVO has progressively become more shrill with the realisation that the govt is not going to fall over. After the election, he was pretty balanced, but as time wore on and it became apparent that Abbott was failing to get the keys to the lodge, PVO has become intolerable.

  23. The Contrarians believe the DT’s front page shocker/photo is “seriously funny”.

    Sheesh…

    Maybe for a gossip magazine, but for a “proper” newspaper?

  24. Poroti – I appreciate all the details but I regret to say that they have not appeased my feelings. Meat has now become a live animal on my plate.

  25. Had to switch PVO off – IPA, Julian Leeson & PVO against Rhys Muldoon was just a crazy babble but it was nice to know that all 3 are mightily cheesed off with Slipper and Jenkins.

  26. [Maybe for a gossip magazine, but for a “proper” newspaper?]

    Then again, I have had the odd chuckle over George’s Photo Shopped front pages, so I guess I shouldn’t get too much on my high horse (eh, William?).

  27. victoria,

    You just reminded me of Abbott’s outrageous claim. just after the realisation that we had a hung parliament situation, that he was going to PM.

    Gotta love his chutzpah. Even if I thought it, there is no way I would have put it out there before I had agreements in place!

  28. SK

    I remember it too. It was in contrast to the PM that evening. After hearing both speeches at the end of the night, I was thinkng that Abbott had shown too much hubris, and I hoped it would come back to bite him.

  29. space kidette
    [It is good to remember that Abbott only won the LOTO role with 1 vote. That means half of his team are not totally convinced or have different policy preferences]
    Indeed – that is why counting up the fresher class of ’10 is particularly interesting

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