GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.
UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.
UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:
However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.
morning all
Pleasing to see Newspoll heading in the right direction.
Have a good day bludgers. i am off for the day
Good morning, Bludgers. Good morning, Dawn Patrollers.
Last Newspoll of the year, Labor back from the last; so Party steady, PM ahead of Abbott and improving. After the PM’s Year from Hell, that’s a good end.
Labor NatConf reminiscent of those of the 70s? ‘Sort of’. More non-delegates, ‘outsiders’ etc than there have been for yonks, so signs of a return to yesteryear’s more open conferences; though raked theatre seating inhibits mixing, mingling, walking around the floor talking to, sitting beside delegates – all those things that facilitate ‘mergling’ and lobbying when there’s flat-floor seating. Much quieter, though. 70s conferences were rowdier than the last few months’ QT. Muscular democracy? (btw, just throw that in because Dave Cameron’s talking about Muscular Conservatism, whatever that is: probably not the 70s Labor NatConf fisticuffs.)
Some very good resolutions; but I’m not happy about off-shore AS processing (though that’s how most of our AS are processed and have been since Ben Chifley was PM) and definitely not happy about uranium sales to India (though I understand why). I’m not a member of any party or its decision making, so can’t complain too much.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-12-05/global-emissions-on-the-rise/3712166
Not sure if this has been posted but certainly worrying
Sorry GG(82) I see you already have linked Ross Gittens article but it is so good twice linked can’t hurt
[ and definitely not happy about uranium sales to India (though I understand why)]
Oz, same here. India is not as benign as it appears. It’s more than just Bollywood and Cricket. And the concept of India is just as shaky, you just ask the Indians.
The Simpsons come to the RBA. Pretty good actually.
http://www.petermartin.com.au/2011/12/will-reserve-bank-cut-rates-tomorrow-i.html
I liked this bit from Risbane’s referral
[As Labor PMs go, Gillard is unusual: she doesn’t behave like an overwrought egomaniac. Her predecessors Whitlam, Hawke, Keating and Rudd were and are self-obsessed and supercharged, happiest when showing off. You won’t find Gillard bragging about her knowledge of ancient Rome, her sporting prowess, her love of Mahler’s symphonies, or her ability to speak Mandarin. And thank God for that.
Gillard is our first female PM and the first down-to-earth Labor PM in living memory. For many, Gillard’s chief sin is her perceived ordinariness, her almost total lack of affectation. Surely this is something to celebrate and, by rights, these earthy qualities should appeal to rather than repel the electorate.
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/grace-under-pressure-20111204-1oddl.html#ixzz1fbNiX3g6 ]
It would be presumptuous yet to put her up there with Chifley and Curtin. But in humility at least it is certainly so.
Politically she has improved from her awkward beginning, but probably still needs some fine-tuning. The leaking of the confidential section of the report is probably not down to her but is still not a good look.
[Phil Coorey apparently has the sealed section of the post election review by Labor]
A sealed section just attracts attention so it was inevitable that it would get out. I’m surprised it took this long.
The good thing is that the narrative over Xmas belongs to Labor. Abbott will be either responding to outcomes from the conference or be defending his responses to outcomes from the conference. Either way he won’t be seen to be setting the agenda. The other thing is the looney Christian lobby will be pressuring him over SSM and his management people skills will be evident when his party members start expressing their opinions. I think I’ll enjoy watching Mr :monkey: over Xmas.
This poll is a clear improvement on the last (possibly slightly rogue) poll and seems to support a trend back to both the ALP & the PM. Despite this and the unequivocal deterioration in Abbott’s position it came as little surprise to hear Fran & Michelle furiously agree this morning that this newspoll was ‘a bad way for JG to finish the year’.
I have had enough of the ABC. This morning Fran Kelly was again at it, dissing Julia Gillard in company with Alison Carabine, when FK asked AC “What would have been the consequence for Julia Gillard if she had lost the conscience vote amendment at the ALP conference?”. Can this mob be more negative to Julia Gillard. WTF she didn’t lose it, but lets not give the lady any credit, better still lets get any party hack that attended the conference on the program, and did not win a particular vote to put shite on the party for voting the way they did. What ever happened to the majority wins and that becomes ALP policy, now live with it until the next conference.
According to this article
tinyurl.com/747xxjb
Sophie Mirabella was totally unaware that she was about to get a pay rise.
If that’s the case, she should have no difficulty in returning it to Treasury, just as Thatcher (her hero) did.
Come on, Sophie; after all, you think it’s inappropriate for the PM to get a pay rise at present, so why should you?
Two words that bring joy to La Stupenda’s heart:
“Gillard fails”.
How wonderful for the Old Boiler it must feel to pen those glorious sentiments yet again!
Gillard won every vote she put up for. The party’s platform has changed on uranium and gay marriage.
Alas, she failed.
La S. (who can snatch a Gillard defeat from any victory, failure from any success) can still find just cause for her favourite emotion: slagging off the Prime Minister from the safety of her seemingly sinecured position at The Age (and how appropriate a name that is for the newspaper employing her!).
The Old Crone manages to squeeze a loss of authority for Gillard next to Ruddstoration in the first two sentences…
[Gillard fails to seize the day despite uranium
LABOR’S national conference has done nothing to strengthen Julia Gillard’s authority with the public and has highlighted the continuing leadership tensions in the government.
Kevin Rudd did not make an appearance in yesterday’s key uranium debate – despite a central issue being Australia’s relations with India, which is at the heart of his foreign affairs portfolio.]
Never mind that if the conference had been an orchestrated, straight-jacketed zombie convention like 2009, the headline would have started out with the same delicious concept of failure. The Prime Minister at these shindigs must, apparently, “seize the day” – take over, micromanage, get her way in everything, run the show – or else she has “failed”.
And if she had “seized the day”, why then the headline could have been:
[Gillard fails as conference gagged]
Note that the conference has not “not done much”, or has not “done only a little”. It has done nothing to help Gillard. The Nasty Naysayette provides as evidence… her unfailing ability to judge public opinion, apparently, for (look as I might) there is precious little else she supplies to judge her conclusion by.
Not for the Winkled One the concept of politics as an occupation where the numbers matter. She would have us believe that unless discussion of the issue is restricted solely to the floor of the convention, via public speeches by delegates, then the whole thing has been a stitch-up.
The possibility that lobbying – for shame! – goes on behind closed doors (as it does for everything from electing the captain of the Under-12 footy team to whether we’re eating Chinese or Thai tonight) just shows how corrupt things have become.
The concept of the Leader wanting to get her own way because – I know, it’s shocking – she’s the Leader is anathema to the Doyen Of The Press Gallery.
Lucky for her, Grattan has those thick Coke bottle specs. She needs them to cope with her myopic view on just about everything associated with “Ms. Gillard”. She has them araldited to her head to make sure she never misses an opportunity to condemn and deride the PM for yet another “failure”.
F–k knows what the Sourpuss From The South wants from Gillard, but whatever it is, she isn’t getting enough of it.
Taking advantage of Peter Slipper’s resignation from his own party, shoring up the numbers in the house to give a more stable government, coupled with a precious ability to suspend standing orders with 76 votes, which incorporated a resounding tactical and strategic defeat of Tony Abbott on rules he idiotically wrote himself wasn’t brilliant. It was “tawdry” and “grubby”. How thoughtless of Gillard to deprive Grattan of her favourite “One-Heartbeat-Away-From-Oblivion” meme!
The passage of the Carbon Tax, the MRRT, Tobacco Legislation, the Floods Levy, the Telstra break-up, the NBN itself and 250 other laws were examples of a “do-nothing” government, teetering on the brink of extinction, at least in the eyes of the Melbourne Muckraker.
The minority government itself, brilliantly held together and indeed developed as a force for constructive governance was a “shambolic” flop.
If Gillard peremptorily and publicly dismisses 9 out of 10 of Her Gratannic Majesty’s press conference questions as stupid (which they are, the ones that don’t put us to sleep, that is), then revenge must be extracted. It’s not the convolution and venom in the questions that’s the problem. So it must be Ms. Gillard who’s to blame.
So today we have yet another “fail” in a long line of failures. Another test applied that was not conquered.
Which only leaves me one question:
WHY DO THEY PAY THIS CLAPPED OUT OLD HACK A SALARY?
(Supplementary, Mr. Speaker…
WHEN WILL THEY STOP DOING SO?)
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/gillard-fails-to-seize-the-day-despite-uranium-20111204-1odjq.html#ixzz1fbHWCbv8
OPT Finnigans
The Uranium decision was a bad as was the AS. Not sure what positives came out
Now, why didn’t that link work?
http://www.nenews.com.au/stories.aspx?pub=ch&day=Fri&class=Stories&type=SINGLE&path=XML/&rec=04
[Pleasing to see Newspoll heading in the right direction.]
I haven’t read The Australian yet, but no doubt Shanahan commented on the “explosive surge” in Labors 2PP numbers, up 3 percentage points in just a fortnight?
Thanks in advance for any confirmation.
Winners and losers from the ALP conference
Winners
Rainbow Labor
Gillard
Labor Right
India
USA
Losers
The left (who got rolled in a ball stuffed in a hole and sat upon) but told Rainbow labor had a partial victory. Be happy
Rudd
World Peace
China
BB
Did I perceive correctly that there is a hint that you may have had just about enough of Michelle’s contributions?
[retiredleftie
Posted Monday, December 5, 2011 at 8:28 am | Permalink
I have had enough of the ABC. This morning Fran Kelly was again at it, dissing Julia Gillard in company with Alison Carabine, when FK asked AC “What would have been the consequence for Julia Gillard if she had lost the conscience vote amendment at the ALP conference?”. Can this mob be more negative to Julia Gillard. WTF she didn’t lose it, but lets not give the lady any credit, better still lets get any party hack that attended the conference on the program, and did not win a particular vote to put shite on the party for voting the way they did. What ever happened to the majority wins and that becomes ALP policy, now live with it until the next conference.]
What is astonishing is that the MSM reaction before, during and after the conference almost exactly replicated Brian Loughnane’s “Test for Gillard” talking points, as outlined by Bushfire Bill a few days back.
At least I assume they were that and not another of BB’s parodies.
Someone with lots of followers on Twitter pleaSE tweet the permalink for Bushfire’s 114. It is a cracker.
[I have had enough of the ABC]
what took u so long
😉
PTMD….done…as I do most days 🙂 Though I don’t have a HUGE following 🙁
PS: Building up a useful group of eager readers…who also pass on to their followers… Just wish BB would start a blog of his own. He’s better than just about any other blogger I’ve read…
[This morning Fran Kelly was again at it, dissing Julia Gillard in company with Alison Carabine, when FK asked AC “What would have been the consequence for Julia Gillard if she had lost the conscience vote amendment at the ALP conference?”. ]
Gillard didn’t fail, but she might have, if she’d… uhm… failed.
Just as interest rates haven’t gone up each onth now for 13 months… but they might have… so let’s talk about that.
The government didn’t fall during the year… but it might have… there’s a good angle.
The surplus looks set… but it might not so certain… why don’t we explore the possibility of failure (instead of success)?
Anyway, it’s only a surplus… we don’t need them, they’re only politics… but if there isn’t one, we’ll start screaming about… politics.
The entire media seems hell bent on talking just about everything down. From the global economic situation to the Labor Conference. They can’t help themselves. No reader or listener is to be allowed even a smidgin of hope over Christmas. It’s all fail, fail, fail from here on down to the bottom of the sewer we’re heading into.
Miserable bastards. Thye’ll wreck this country yet with their negativity. They want us to talk ourselves into the grave.
Ironically, the only reason they can afford to be so miserable is that we’re actually doing so well.
Optimism is so boring.
…I also ensure Chris Kenny gets a link…. You never know, something good MAY come of it 🙂 🙂
zoomster
Posted Monday, December 5, 2011 at 8:31 am | Permalink
Now, why didn’t that link work?
http://www.nenews.com.au/stories.aspx?pub=ch&day=Fri&class=Stories&type=SINGLE&path=XML/&rec=04
Zoomster I have an idea the paper doesn’t really like Sophie, I seem to remember when she was having her “other” troubles they wern’t over enthusiastic about theit member
Laura Tingle is the one commentator who is universally admired here and this is what she said about the conference.
[If Tony Abbott is the hollow man, Prime Minister Julia Gillard has emerged from the weekend’s ALP national conference as the shallow woman.
She attended the party conference rather than led it, unpersuasive in what she pushed, beached on policy positions the party accepts but government will not pursue, and silent on industrial relations changes likely to antagonise the business community.
As an exercise for the party faithful or a showcase to the voters, this conference must be seen as a disaster that will only confirm voters’ confusion about just who Julia Gillard – and the Australian Labor Party – really are.]
tingle is in a bit of a tizzy
what do they want JG to be
🙁
[PTMD….done…as I do most days 🙂 Though I don’t have a HUGE following :(]
Send it to La S. herself (modesty forbids me doing it).
BB,
Today’s meme seems to be that although Gillard won every vote to endorse her and her Governments programmes and policies that she didn’t show leadership cos she don’t talk posh enough.
Abbott’s disapproval rating continues to trend towards 60% (now 57%) with lots more problems coming up for him next year. Meanwhile Julia’s ratings continue to improve with a lot of good things still to come.
I think it was Possum who observed that voting intentions tend to follow approval ratings after a while, so as I’ve been saying for some time, it’s hard to see how Abbott can win in 2013 on present indications.
I have no interest in the pro v anti Rudd debate but I did find it very interesting that the “sealed section ” of the party review has been released/ leaked.
I will wait to see what, if any, response Minister Rudd makes on this as he was the one leading the charge for it to be made public.
As my dear old Mum has always said “Be careful what you wish for… “
Doyley
As someone said earlier, the irony of a sealed section criticising leakers being leaked is gold.
GG
How about this
Gillard led from the right on SSM upsetting some of her former lefty friends
Gillard allowed the appalling AS platform change. Now in 2006/7 Gillard railed against Howard on this and now supports something worse than Nauru. This has upset lots of the left and even some LNP.
Gillard kow towed to Obama yet again and approved uranium to India
Doyley,
The be nice to Kevin Policy seems to have expired.
Was it just coincidence that the Newspoll did not rate a mention on 3AW news this morning after the coalition pv and 2pp had plummeted 4% and 8 points respectively?
Call me a cynic but I don’t think so.
bushfire
u have made into the firies paper
http://paper.li/NSWFBEU/1312603127
darn
poss’s answer
@StGusface The approval questions of public polling are generally too generic to pick up early sentiment change that may lead to vote change
31 seconds ago Favorite Retweet Reply »
Pollytics Possum Comitatus
@ @StGusface Historically, they both move together – with neither one being a leading indicator.
daretotread,
The sure sign of a complete rout is the losers realising how routed they’ve been and whingeing.
Gillard got everything she wanted. Lefties can please themselves.
GG
[The be nice to Kevin Policy seems to have expired.]
They voted on that one too. Gillard won 208-184 like all the other votes!
Tingle disappointing today. I don’t remember the leader heavily dominating Conference previously which is what Laura seems to be saying that the PM failed to do. I guess you could say that Kev did in that he stopped any and all discussion of anything which might be considered awkward for him.
Shallow?! WTheck! At least the SMH had a pretty decent article on the PM this morning. I seem to remember that Chifley and Curtin were pretty ordinary blokes who didn’t make huge noises about themselves.
Thanks, BB – after listening to Carbine with Kelly and Grattan with Kelly this morning I really need your posts.
markjs – good on you, send them to Laura as well today if you can.
GG
Yes but at what point do lefties give up and leave altogether – they may as well as they achieve nothing
@BH/141,
I think the media is more confused than than the voters….
Which would explain alot.
GG
exactly. The meme of the articles isn’t that she failed on these issues, but that she failed in leadership somehow, despite simulataneously getting all of these issues up.
If she had failed to get just one of those motions up, the meme would be that she had failed as a leader.
So the msm did what they’ve always done; set ‘tests’ and then fail Gillard regardless.
GG @135,
Yes, it does.
As a outsider I have no idea as to the internal dynamics at the moment re The PM and Minister Rudd. I have no idea if their is a real problem or not and I will not be drawn into ” is he or isn’t he ..” arguments.
However, if there is a real problem between the two I hope they sort it out. If they cannot and Minister Rudd remains unhappy ( assuming for the moment he is ) then I hope the PM and the party work him over just enough to put him back in his box and he realises that the party is more important.
That is political reality.
daretotread
Dougie Cameron was asked exactly that question – why didn’t he go and join the Greens?
He said he’d rather be in a party which could actually do things.
Has any opposition leader ever become PM with the disapproval rating Abbott has?
interesting to hear ABC radio focus on the Abbott negatives in the poll
daretoread,
Are you a member?
The weekly abundance of newspolls are all about election steering. I seriously doubt that any News Corpse product is honest and the reality is probably more like the Noalition and Phoney are behind in the polls.
I ask myself could an organisation of Turdoch’s be criminal and underhanded enough to fudge voting intentions in their polls?
Answers obvious, especially as their figures were wrong in Qld, Tasmania, Victorian and NZ elections and all swayed towards the conservatives.
Dodgy figures do sway voters and steer elections