GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.
UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.
UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:
However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.
Zoomster
Just what are those things which Cameron can do. I think Cameron and co were really, really done over at conference. So mych so that they have virtually no place to go. I expect
Sorry feel very gloomy today and cannot see a way forward
The MSM tried as hard as it could over the last two weeks to drag the government down.
They tried it on with the “secret deal with the Greens ” MRRT legislation, THe Slipper deal and Steve Lewis worked as hard as he could with the crap pay rise story.
It seems none of it has worked. No wonder they are miffed !
Zoidlord – you’re right. They seem a crazy, mixed up bunch who stick together rather than think for themselves. They should set themselves some of the ‘tests’ Zoomster mentioned.
Sky’s wonderfully shallow presenters at conference asked every Labor left person the same thing yesterday – wtte ‘shouldn’t you join the Greens seeing that you wuz robbed at conference’.
I wonder why they never ask Turnbull or some of the other moderate libs why they don’t join another Party.
GG
Yes I am a member. Have been since 1972 (with a three year lapse)
Have been handing out how to votes since 1961. Yes I am a solid supporter.
daretotread – I have to go out right now to a meeting but would like to leave ask a couple of questions later if that’s OK.
daretotread
I think Cameron would know better than I do. If he believes he’s achieving things within the party that he couldn’t achieve otherwise, then he probably has reasons for that belief.
@BH/153.
They have to defend themselves and each other, why you think after all these years they would be called liers….. Unless their ignorance and ego ignores that too.
daretoread @151,
If the left had been successful at conference with its agenda then the right would be the ones whinging today.
That is the dynamic of a political party such as labor.
It all depends which way you lean in determing the success or not of conference.
Myself, I am centre with a tinge of left but I look at each piece of policy as a stand alone and judge it on its merits.
I am very happy with the results. But then I live and breath pragmatism rather than purity.
daretoread,
Reading my post at @158 again that last sentence of mine was not meant as having a go at you or anyone else. It is just the way I think.
Well, I thought the conference was a success, even though I may not have agreed with all the resolutions. I don’t know how anyone can criticise the PM for being shallow when you compare and contrast with the conference in 2009 when Rudd stifled debate on anything regarded controversial.
And again it’s worth pointing out that the only reason these commentators are able to write the stuff they do is because Labor’s conferences are transparent in that way. Will the Greens and the Liberals follow suit?
daretotread,
Don’t despair. The Conference was like the Curate’s Egg-good in parts. If you wish to look at it from the perspective of a Left-leaning Member of the Labor Party, then think how much has changed in the last 2 years since the last Conference. Back then Joe De Bruyn and the AWU/Ludwig faction prevailed. You wouldn’t have even seen an Amendment to the party platform come to the floor and succeed wrt Same Sex Marriage. The Left won! Sure, the Uranium vote didn’t go the Left’s way, but I happen to agree with the pragmatists on that one, India has successfully circumvented the NNPT anyway & now it’s up to the IAEA to monitor them closely, and for us to ensure appropriate safeguards in any agreement we sign with them.
Finally, with the prospect of more Rank and File Delegates to the National Conference next time, it will be a whole new ball game.
The glass is half full and filling up with participatory goodness!
Doyley,
The Party has been most indulgent to Rudd given the way he was removed from office. There are few that would not empathise with the soul destroying processes of Australian politics. (Remember his predecessor was not only removed from, Government, but removed from parliament). He’s continued as a senior member of the Government and that in itself is recognition of the respect he is due.
However, eighteen months down the track and it’s time for Kevin to come to grips with the fact that he isn’t going to be PM again regardless of the briefings against Gillard, his self indulgent forays in to public discourse to stifle any traction the Government may be gaining and, of course, his unwavering belief that he’s the smartest political operator going round.
About now Kevin has to decide whether he is going to be part of the team or he will be cast off to allow him to indulge his selfish predilictions and fantasies. This Labor Conference proved Rudd has neither momentum or support amongst the Membership to overthrow Gillard.
As they say, “Time to pull your head in, Kev”.
Doyley
It depends on the importance of the questions. The only left right issue that was of minor long term significance was SSM simply because it is not life and death and you can revisit it another year.
Uranium sales to India is another story. As Albanese said, break one treaty and you break the lot implicitly be undermining the UN. We will now have no excuse not to sell uranium to Pakistan, South Africa, Brazil, Indonesia etc.
India and Pakistan are at a nuclear power stand off and there is a REAL threat of nuclear war. we are implicitly condoning this now.
So, the Newspoll of a fortnight ago was, indeed, a rogue result, as predicted by many here, but never mentioned by any MSM commentator, or alleged journalist at any time in that period.
Martin O’Shannessy from Newspoll on SkyNews this morning virtually admitted this, but the cretinous Kieran Gilbert brushed straight past this point, preferring to try and coax some anti-Gillard spin to these results from O’Shannessy, who to his credit did not take the bait, and stuck with the facts – ALP up 3 points and Coalition down 3 points in the TPP, and PM Gillard moving further ahead on the PPM metric, with the maligned and malignant Abbott now in negative satisfaction territory by 24 points.
All in all a reasonable way for the ALP Government to end the political and polling year, given the relentless negativity of the Opposition, and the near universal anti-Gillard propaganda poured into the airwaves and clogging the internet courtesy of the Murdoch Circus and their lapdogs in the debauched ABC.
The Coalition can take cold comfort from their slight polling lead going in to the Christmas silly season, as the last series of images in most people’s minds will be the recent Government policy and legislative successes, the Royal and Presidential visits and a successful ALP Conference, with the now mandatory weekly ‘Rudd is challenging by XX month’ story based on the Foreign Minister being seen smiling, frowning, or doing neither thrown into the melting pot by the usual suspects.
Abbott is now slowly accelerating down the political hill to eventual oblivion, as the Government’s polling numbers continue to creep up, and as 2011 was the Government’s year of legislative and policy delivery, 2012 will be the year of political consolidation and implementation of these reforms.
As I and many others have been saying in this forum and elsewhere – good policy is also good politics, and Governments embarking on major reforms have to get the timing right, which is what the ALP have been doing this year. The electorate, despite their whimsical and capricious nature, will reward their leader’s persistance and determination in the longer term, and it is on this basis that we can take heart from what has happened in 2011 …. besides, whatever doesn’t kill you makes you stronger.
Sorry Cat
Revisit the conference in a week when the hooha has died down
It was a MAJOR defeat for the left on everything that mattered.
Uranium
Deficit
Asylum seekers
Party reform
What the right do not seem to realise is that in terms of party membership the rival is the Greens not the LNP.this conference will have done nothing to reverse this. And party membership reflects the depth and strength of support.
If I HAD to make a bet in 20 years the Labor party will be the minor party and the Greens will be the party of progressives. The Greens will have taken a few more steps to the pragmatic centre and the Labor party a few more steps to the religious right.
And yes I am still an ALP member but cannot think why
@The Big Ship/164,
It’s a revolving door for Labor, this is exactly what happened with Rudd, except Labor are sticking with Gillard this time, instead of listening to the media.
@daretoread/165,
You got to be joking!
If anything the LNP will be the minority party, not the Labor party.
The current polling suggest that Labor are gaining, and as well greens.
However, LNP are loosing ground.
diog @ 127
Re Laura Tingle is the one commentator who is universally admired here and this is what she said about the conference:
[If Tony Abbott is the hollow man, Prime Minister Julia Gillard has emerged from the weekend’s ALP national conference as the shallow woman.
She attended the party conference rather than led it, unpersuasive in what she pushed, beached on policy positions the party accepts but government will not pursue, and silent on industrial relations changes likely to antagonise the business community.
As an exercise for the party faithful or a showcase to the voters, this conference must be seen as a disaster that will only confirm voters’ confusion about just who Julia Gillard – and the Australian Labor Party – really are.]
If I had read this article only without the benefit of the running commentary supplied by PBers and a lot of positive news reports, admittedly only on radio, I’d have thought JG was a miserable failure and the conference itself a disaster – because I trust Tingle’s opinion.
Some of her arguments are sound, such as the contradictory stance of having a policy but not pursuing it through the parliament – but she well knows the politics involved.
JG said the conference was going back to basics to involve robust debate and that delegates were going to have a say. To then inject herself and impose her will would have been absurd.
Does
[a party that says it is embarking on internal reform but then votes down a proposal to give its directly elected national president a vote on the national executive]
really mean the only conclusion to be drawn is that
[Nobody is in control here, if even anybody is actually at home?]
I don’t know. Does it? What do ALP members think?
It wasn’t Tingle’s usually incisive facts-based opinion. She seemed confused if not disillusioned and disappointed by the conference and by JG in particular.
All I can ask is: Has Tingle been got at too?
Growler: the party sets up an internal inquiry which listens to all of Rudd’s enemies and then issues a “sealed report” which is leaked the moment his enemies realise that they might not need Rudd’s vote in the house (funny how this all occurs a week after the Slipper affair). Does the report mention anywhere that sacking a PM when he is 52-48 ahead in the polls is crack-head stupid? Boy, what a generous and indulgent mob the Party are.
[THE Coalition leader, Tony Abbott, has not ruled out allowing a conscience vote on the gay marriage laws that will be brought before Parliament early next year after the Labor Party changed its policy over the weekend.]
I’m inclined to think he’ll back down, simply because of the pressure he’ll get internally, and because it would look hypocritical for the Liberals to deny its MPs to vote with their conscience on such a matter.
But you never know with Tony Abbott. His Unhingement is leading him to say and do some very strange things.
[As they say, “Time to pull your head in, Kev”.]
I agree entirely. Coorey’s report in the SMH today is devastating for Rudd.
Having Harry back on the floor of the House seems to have given the PM a bit more confidence in returning Rudd’s fire.
rosa,
The eggs are broken, the dummies have been spat and all the toys are all out of the cot. So, do you think Kevin head butting the door is going to make things change now?
http://www.theage.com.au/national/lib-mp-urges-gay-marriage-free-vote-20111204-1odjr.html#poll
Has this be posted, going tobe interesting the pressure on TA building See the poll at the bottom
kezza2 – I don’t think Laura Tingle’s been “got at”. It’s probably projection, wanting to see more and and being disappointed. She sees more clearly than most and won’t deny plain facts, but having read her on & off over a few years she still prone to cynicism, which is often a form of frustrated idealism. I think many journos are like that, but many in the press gallery have gone much further than her and basically can’t see any value in anything.
daretoread @165,
I think you need to revisit the party reform discussion and the part the left played in it.
My understanding is the rights proposal on this included 150 branch members ( one from each electorate ) being chosen to attend conference. ie increase delegates from 400 to 550.
However, the left knocked this on the head unless another 150 delegates were chosen from the unions as well. Knocked back by the right. The left then realised what they had done and were running around trying to fix it. Not a good look for them but glossed over in the after game summary.
Gittin’s article was good. I was particularly struck by “Under Abbott the Libs are at their most populist, protectionist and anti-rationalist in decades.” and “The notion of Abbott in government is frightening.”
Gittins was in the vanguard of the Australian economic rationalists. I remember him in the 80s excoriating the Labor government for its timidity in economic reform, particularly in deregulation and protectionism. These days the Right dismisses him as left-wing, but I think it’s more that the Right has changed. The Liberals have become a party of glib populism. They are certainly not the party of economic rationalism. I’m not sure they ever were – they might have given it lip-service, but not much else. But these days they don’t even seem to do that.
I think the Economist got it right when they summed up the Coalition. They said “Mr Abbott, the current Liberal leader, shares none of Margaret Thatcher’s belief in the market. His party seems to have no philosophical principles at all.”
Gittin’s article was also interesting because it pointed out why Labor treasurers have to do better than Liberal treasurers. It’s been obvious to me for years that that’s the case but the reason Gittins puts forward is that business economists are reluctant to attack the Liberal party because they might offend the boss. But Labor?… open season all year. “How could the boss object to that?”
Well worth reading.
[@mumbletwits
Peter Brent
Me on last Newspoll for the yr. Sinewously written;oozes gravitas. Has 2 graphs. Bags Julia a little but not Swanny. http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/last_newspoll_for_2011/
9 minutes ago via web]
I’d personally be surprised is the Coalition allow a conscience vote on marriage equality. By not allowing it they will be able to allow the media to focus on divisions within the Labor Party.
I have no problem with Tingles article.
I do not agree with it but she is fair and balanced and one must take the kicks as well as the flowers and that is what Tingle offers.
Zoid
One poll does not a trend make
The libs were in real trouble in the 80s but seem to have reinvigorated themselves. Mind you their talent pool seems weak. I predict trouble for them too but as I am not a member of the Libs I cannot quite understand their factions and issues.
The issue I am discussing is Labor versus Green. If you plot data then the green trend up and Labor down seems obvious. It also fits in with world trends whereby social democratic parties are losing their strength relative to Greens/progressive parties. In part this is an inevitable effect of greater wealth and the success of social democracy. People no longer frightened of starvation and destitution move on to other things. The decline in union movements also shows that the concept of united brother/sister hood that is such a part of Labor ethos is no longer fashionable.
Labor had the chance to rethink itself and take on the Green mantle. It has failed to do this and I suspect it is now in an irreversible decline.
@Daretoread/180,
Your forgetting the trending has been trending for a while now.
Doyley
I have no doubt you are 100% correct re the left faction play. – I am not a big fan of ANY factional gurus (despite having once played the game and very hard)
Daretoread 165
With your comments on all the recent issues, I can’t think why as well.
[The libs were in real trouble in the 80s but seem to have reinvigorated themselves. ]
Sorry mate, you’ll have to expand on this – reinvigorated? In what way, like at a spa? I don’t see anything refreshing coming from the Liberals.
As for your criticism about the Labor Party, it’s what the Libs like to call themselves, a broad church. It’s never been the party of the left or right.
And btw @Daretoread, to rethink on the green mantle would require an early election(thus possibility to loose support of the Indies), and thus I don’t see it happening from either Left or Right side any time soon.
So go back to you’re shadows and sit in a corner.
You are very naughty!
[@chriskkenny
Chris Kenny
Good yarn on front of SMH today. Troy Bramston had it in The Oz in February theaustralian.com.au/national-affai… #auspol
3 minutes ago via web]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/politics-news/labor-elders-tell-the-party-to-go-green-to-recover-lost-votes/story-fn59nqld-1226011658891
GG 162 – ‘”Time to pull your head in, Kev'”.
We need “standbys”. Being happy with the present leader may be being complacent. Julia is doing great and the polls tell a better story each week. She also appears to be in good health and, age-wise, at the peak of her career.
Nevertheless I believe that we should accept standbys in case of illness or worse: Rudd, Smith and Shorten, for instance. But these must remain unobtrusive. They can build up their credentials without jostling things, without undermining the PM, without seeking the limelight.
I’ve always felt that it was poor judgement by Howard to be so self-centered. He carefully avoided any competition, avoided nurturing a potential successor to himself. He always thought he was the only one, the very best, and that he’d be eternal. Big mistake. They ended up picking Tony Abbott.
[The libs were in real trouble in the 80s but seem to have reinvigorated themselves. ]
*laughs*
Today’s Liberal party has reinvigorated itself from the party of business, open markets and liberalism to the party of shallow populism and protectionism. It no longer knows what it stands for or where it stands on any of the major issues confronting our nation.
Zoidlord is correct: the focus on Labor and its woes is allowing the Liberals to paper over the massive schisms in its own party. It will not always be this way, and eventually the Liberal party will be forced to confront reality. My prediction is this will not be pretty.
daretotread
All parties are having membership difficulties (I know the Greens are growing, but even adding their numbers to the mix doesn’t change the fact that membership of political parties is in decline).
I’m not sure that that matters. What matters is having people to do the grunt work, and ways of getting feedback from the public who support your party on issues.
Grunt work can always be paid for and some of it is becoming superfluous (handing out HTVs is getting less and less relevant, for example, though still important at present).
The focus shouldn’t be on numbers of members but on whether the jobs which need to be done can be done and how the party engages the community.
It’s a different world to the one we lived in even ten years ago, and yet we still persist with old structures.
I would have thought a progressive lefty would recognise that the old party structures aren’t relevant now.
George
I said decline in the 1980s. Howard was their re-invigoration.
As for right now the Libs seem to have on board the worst of the religious right PLUS the worst of the anti worker banker capitalist fraternity in and unholy alliance. But as I say, not being a Liberal member I have no real feel for how it will play for them.
ltep:
I imagine there will be several Lib MPs who will pressure Abbott to allow a conscience vote.
@daretoread/190,
And they got lost again after loosing the election in 2007.
So they are in that period again.
Succinct.
There was a point in Howard’s term when he decided, “Bugger all this, I’m chasing votes.” The GST was probably the only thing on his to-do list (aside from maybe industrial relations) and once he got that through we was just chasing his own legacy.
Certainly from 2001 onwards all he was doing was seeing off challengers, both within the party and without. He rode public sentiment right through Tampa and Afghanistan/Iraq. He appropriated the general attitude (though not much of the specific policy) of One Nation with his various dog-whistles. He leaned on his reputation to see off Latham. And when the first real challenger from Labor turned up, he threw money at everything he could think of to try to ‘buy’ enough support to keep power.
That’s the attitude the Liberals have inherited. Tell the people what they want to hear, even if you contradict yourself horribly in the process. In almost every portfolio, their policy is “not what the ALP are doing”. And that’ll work right up to the time the ALP start doing good things and people notice it. Which is where we are right now. Then the focus does shift back to the Coalition and what they actually stand for.
It won’t be a media focus. But they will have to start incorporating some of that thinking from now on, because that’s where the collective mind of the electorate is heading.
fess
had an interesting exchange with Jack the Insider on twitter.
He said he was writing on Labor’s need to reform or die.
I asked why he wasn’t writing about Liberals’ membership problems.
He said he was aware they were as bad as Labor’s but if he wrote about them he’d be accused of bias!!
Zoomster
And who will pay for the grunt work? There are only a few sources of funding
Business – hardly a big source for Labor and undermines their support for workers
Unions – declining
Clubs – perhaps
Members – there aren’t any.
Union funding of election campaigns has HUGE problems – trust me on this.
[Leroy
Posted Monday, December 5, 2011 at 10:06 am | Permalink
kezza2 – I don’t think Laura Tingle’s been “got at”. It’s probably projection, wanting to see more and and being disappointed. She sees more clearly than most and won’t deny plain facts, but having read her on & off over a few years she still prone to cynicism, which is often a form of frustrated idealism. I think many journos are like that, but many in the press gallery have gone much further than her and basically can’t see any value in anything.]
Should have put a tongue-in-cheek emoticon with the “got at” comment.
The thing is, Leroy, I’m probably doing the projection: I’m disappointed in the article, especially after I read this regarding internal reform in the CM:
[After a last-minute intervention by Ms Gillard, the party agreed to consider allowing rank-and-file members to elect delegates to the next conference.]
Maybe Laura Tingle left early 😀
Zoid
As i said – I do not know the Libs – except form media etc. Abbott is mostly a re-badged DLPer and there are a few more like him. Reith etc are the bankers lobby. But beyond that I know little of their innards
ABC News radio was focused on Gillards disapproval rating increasing but better than abbott. After 3 of the 15 minute bulletins they still hadn’t mentioned the 2PP vote, let alone the improvement there for Labor.
The announcer however injected his own little snide remarks about how comforting it was to have the ALP back to arguing about uranium.
Sell the bloody abc properties. Disconnect the electricity, sack the staff so that they can get jobs with murdoch.
The abc is a WOFTAM – a waste of time and money.
[kezza2 – I don’t think Laura Tingle’s been “got at”. It’s probably projection, wanting to see more and and being disappointed.]
But use of the word “disaster” was uncalled for.
There is no way the conference was a disaster.
Disasters are something that wrecks to the foundations. They cause great harm and grief, weeping and gnashing of teeth. They sweep all that was once trusted and true away with them. They slaughter the innocent as well as the guilty.
The Asian tsunami was a disaster. Fukushima was a disaster. The Queensland floods were a disaster. 9/11 was a disaster. The GFC was a disaster. Opposition budget costings are a disaster. The ALP Conference was not a “disaster”.
I don’t think Tingle’s been got at, but I do think she needs to leave off on the Denmores a little.
daretotread,
As Possum says, ‘It’s all about the trend’, and the trend for The Greens has been down, as far as I have seen it, in the past few polls. A lot of that vote went to Labor after the CPRS was finally passed through parliament.
You see, that’s what Doug Cameron was on about. The Greens are fine as the disjointed Left Flank of the Progressive political movement, but their issues will never be popular enough in the broader community to see them superceding the Labor Party, who span the Centre Left and the Centre Right these days, on one issue or another. The Greens are unable to exhibit the flexibility and political pragmatism of the Labor Party. Also, if you are sitting by the TV with a cup of tea waiting for The Greens to overtake the Labor Partyand into government, then your tea will be very cold indeed before that happens.
Anyway, the biggest threat to the viability of the ALP is coming from Barry O’Farrell’s Coalition government in NSW, who is introducing legislation to break the financial nexus between the ALP and the Unions. That is something that worries me, not the gadflies in The Greens.