GhostWhoVotes tweets that the latest Newspoll has the Coalition two-party lead at 54-46, down from an aberrant 57-43 a fortnight ago. The Coalition is down four points on the primary vote to 44 per cent, which in fact returns them to where they were in the poll before last. Labor is up a point to 31 per cent, which is still a point shy of the previous poll, and the Greens are on 13 per cent, which compares with 10 per cent last time and 12 per cent the time before. Julia Gillard has consolidated the lead she opened up as preferred prime minister a fortnight ago, which ended five months of ascendancy for Tony Abbott: she is now up three to 43 per cent, with Abbott up one to 36 per cent. Gillard also has a less bad net approval rating than Abbott for the first time in eight months, with her approval up two points to 36 per cent (its highest in eight months) and disapproval up one to 56 per cent. Abbott is down one on approval to 33 per cent and up two on disapproval to 57 per cent, in both cases equalling his previous worst results and collectively producing his lowest ever net rating of minus 24.
UPDATE: Essential Research likewise has it at 54-46, unchanged from last week, with primary votes of 47 per cent for the Coalition (down one), 34 per cent for Labor (steady) and 10 per cent for the Greens (down one). Encouragingly for Labor, there has been a shift in sentiment in favour of the government seeing out its full term: support is up seven points since early September to 47 per cent, with “hold election now” down seven to 41 per cent. Less happily for them, a question on best party to handle 15 issues has Labor leading only on industrial relations, and then only slightly – the Liberals hold leads approaching 20 per cent for all economic questions, as well as “political leadership”. On the question of which issues will most influence vote choice, there has been little change since June.
UPDATE 2: Possum charts polling showing a shift in sentiment away from an early election:
However, the apparently radical nature of the shift from the first two polls to the last three is largely a function of the poorly framed question posed by Galaxy in the earlier cases, when respondents were offered the false dichotomy of “Gillard has a mandate for the carbon tax” and “an early election should be called”. Australia’s worst and least trusted major newspaper, the Daily Telegraph, used these obviously flawed results to run a front page lead claiming Australians were “demanding Julia Gillard call a fresh election” and an editorial headlined “voters demand a carbon tax ballot”. It will be interesting to see how the paper reports today’s contrary finding from Essential Research.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/news/opinion/editorial/general/political-predictions-help-lessen-future-shock-for-voters/2380745.aspx?storypage=0
Malcolm M predictions, has he ever been right? Certainly hope one of his predictions don’t come true
[He said he was aware they were as bad as Labor’s but if he wrote about them he’d be accused of bias!!]
And that sums up the problems with our media today.
@C@tmomma/200,
Yeah that is pretty nasty for O’Farrrell, but then again, nothing new from him.
O’Farrel will get what’s coming to him eventually, and most likely won’t be a quiet thing.
His IR like policy driven push, be it breaking up unions or funding or what have you.
Well as a centre voter that has no party allegiances I thought the Labor party conference was great. Issues got debated and policies were decided. Yes factions may have determined outcomes, but at least we got a good look at the alternate points of view.
The standard of debate was much better than what we see in parliament at the moment.
[confessions
Posted Monday, December 5, 2011 at 10:26 am | Permalink
ltep:
I imagine there will be several Lib MPs who will pressure Abbott to allow a conscience vote.]
See my link on 173, has already started
C@tmomma:
Well said, I agree with your assessment.
The Greens are not a party of government, and most likely never will be.
BB
[But use of the word “disaster” was uncalled for.]
Yep, I meant to make that point too.
That’s why the article was so very un-LauraTingle-ish.
I’m disappointed because she is usually reliable and not prone to Denmores.
Re LaS’s coke-bottom glasses:
I call them her “twin prisms”
because she often says/writes “viewed through the twin prisms of . . .”
There is an element of that. But there’s still an issue with the Greens, which is that they come across as a party more of idealism than practicalities. I’m more or less aligned with their ideals, but I wouldn’t vote for them because I don’t want them running our economy. Given the choice between doing something practical and something idealistic, they give every impression they’d take the idealistic approach every time.
Whether that’s true or not, it’s the impression they give. If they could shear off some off the Labor Left (within the party, not voters) they’d be more viable. But they’re pretty hard-line in their beliefs, and that would be a very uneasy alliance.
I think they’re required – they function as an environmental conscience for the nation. But that role limits them as a political entity.
The real question is: as the Greens primary vote bobs around 9-15%, who shares the rest? That forces the ALP further right, as it seeks to capture soft Coalition votes. The ALP has the advantage of being able to rely on the majority of Greens preferences. But getting the balance right – securing the middle ground while trying not to offend the left – is their challenge.
mari:
Yes, i saw that. Thanks for the link!
daretotread
And you don’t need to be a member to do grunt work.
One of my best writers of letter to the editors locally is deliberately not a member, because he wants to be able to say (truthfully) when challenged that he isn’t.
Gives his comments more credibility.
Similarly, some of my best leaflet droppers aren’t members either.
[confessions
Posted Monday, December 5, 2011 at 10:39 am | Permalink
He said he was aware they were as bad as Labor’s but if he wrote about them he’d be accused of bias!!
And that sums up the problems with our media today]
By his employer I guess, I thought Journos were supposed to write without “fear or favour” Not this present day lot
[All in all a reasonable way for the ALP Government to end the political and polling year, given the relentless negativity of the Opposition, and the near universal anti-Gillard propaganda poured into the airwaves and clogging the internet courtesy of the Murdoch Circus and their lapdogs in the debauched ABC.]
TBS
Just imagine if the MSM bias was the other way around i.e. the LNP copping a hiding on each issue and Labor receiving bouquets of roses even when they don’t get things right.
I reckon we’d see Newspoll of 60% Labor; 32% NLP and 7% Greens
Mr Rudd is, along with Mr Abbott, one of the two rotten apples in the barrel of Australian politics.
The Australian public are beginning to get it with regards to Mr Abbott. He will be lucky to survive 2012 as LOTO. In the interim, he will have done enormous damage to our systems of governance, to public trust, and to the quality of our public policy discourse. A mean achievement.
Mr Rudd and his spear carriers have been running a destabilisation campaign against Ms Gillard since the day he got the royal order from colleagues who were heartily sick of his managerial incompetence.
The leaks during the election campaign, the constant damaging backgrounding to journalists, the series of public ‘slips’, the manic populist social media endeavours, the leopard changing his spots to court leadership votes, have all had just one aim in common: Mr Rudd as Prime Minister.
The damage to the Government, the damage to brand Labor, the damage to Labor supporters such as myself who actually believe in solid policy outcomes, and the damage to the policy outcomes themselves has been immense. Every time the Prime Minister has got a bit of clear air, there has been Mr Rudd, in the shadows, or in public by way of a ‘slip’, to do a bit of damage to Ms Gillard and to the Labor Government. Largely unreported has been a toxic struggle between the offices of Mr Rudd and Ms Gillard. Ms Gillard must wonder who is more of a danger to the Government – Mr Rudd or Mr Abbott.
Mr Rudd does not care because it is all about Mr Rudd!.
What we have is two toxic borderline narcissist/sociopaths who, in the famous words of Mr Keating, are both sending us exactly the same message: ‘Give me power or I’ll wreck the joint.’
With the Slipper Ascension, the gloves are off, the fight is in the open. Mr Rudd, who was an assiduous and destabilising leaker before becoming PM, and who has been a sneaky, assiduous and destabilising leaker since losing PM, is now finding that others can leak damaging material about him.
Ms Gillard can now fight without that one hand tied behind her back – the ever-present threat of Mr Rudd to resign his seat and force a by-election.
The sooner we are without Mr Rudd and Mr Abbott, the better off we will all be.
[The Nasty Naysayette provides as evidence… her unfailing ability to judge public opinion, apparently, for (look as I might) there is precious little else she supplies to judge her conclusion by.]
BB
You got Grattan spot on. She wrote article after article on the demise of Gillard, now every day sees Gillard’s position get slightly stronger. The obvious person to blame for that is … Gillard!
I have a feeling that as the government’s position improves through 2012 the negative media will be increasingly hysterical, the screeching louder and the hatred even more irrational. Seems to have started already.
Cat
I am sure that in December 1911 in the UK there were people chatting over tea saying that the Labour Party would never take over from the Liberals (whigs).
Times change and Social Democratic Parties with union affiliation are passe.
I am of course a supreme pessimist but expect there to be a rise in military dictatorships (fascism) in much of the west in coming years. Just as in the 30 depression we saw Hitler, Mussolini and Franco I see similar patterns emerging, this time extending to the US and possibly UK.
The implications for political parties are unknown
I am also pessimistic and fear WWIII (or as Paul Keating suggested WWI revisited) coming our way quite soon. The alliances are being formed
We have the goodies (us)
USA, UK, Europe, Saudi and many oil producers, Israel), India, Australia, Canada, Japan
The baddies (them)
China, Russia, Iran, Syria, Turkey, Pakistan, the non oil producing middle east, Much of Africa
Not sure
South America, Indonesia, PNG, Vietnam, Some of Africa
[What the right do not seem to realise is that in terms of party membership the rival is the Greens not the LNP.this conference will have done nothing to reverse this. And party membership reflects the depth and strength of support.]
I can’t see how going further to the left will bring back those swinging voters who have gone to the coalition in great numbers. You can’t tell me that those lefties going to the Greens will preference the Libs over Labor.
Regarding Abbott
[I’m inclined to think he’ll back down, simply because of the pressure he’ll get internally, and because it would look hypocritical for the Liberals to deny its MPs to vote with their conscience on such a matter.]
It’s hard to imagine that George Pell will allow Abbott to agree on a conscience vote on this issue. Abbott has held out against Howard’s position on when the church said that he must oppose.
C@tmomma @ 200
Bruce Hawker had an interesting article on this subject in the SMH a couple of days ago drawing on the experience of the NDP in Canada. Worth a read.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/forced-reform-may-backfire-on-liberals-20111201-1o94m.html
Rosa
Yes rudd report does sound one eyed. balance definitely needed on that topic, and also admission of popularity of guy. am not sure if that popularity in tact – the controversy on leadership two months ago helped bring issue to surface and heal public misgivings … the wise authors of that report would have better spent their time intervening and helping rudd when he was PM … the report does sound like a rationalisation of a profoudly stupid and risky political act (removal of rudd) – there was a risk (very recent) that labor would never recover from that folly, and risk is probably still there to some extent, and one still wonders why the annus horribilis that has followed was worth the effort.
confessions,
Yes, I don’t think I’ve yet seen an Economic manifesto from The Greens, except to exactly mirror the Liberal Party, that is, ‘Whatever the ALP isn’t doing’, but from the Further Left. 😀
Sorry, I have lost all respect for The Greens since they have been pushing this, ‘All Onshore Processing, All the Time’ line wrt Asylum Seekers, as somehow more humanitarian, whilst at one and the same time blithely ignoring the deaths at sea of Asylum Seekers. An Inconvenient Truth for The Greens. Also, when challenged on it, the only answer I have ever got out of them was, ‘They should be given safer boats to make the journey.’ To which I cynically replied, so Australia should just lay on the QE2 for them then and be done with it, to your way of thinking? Ridiculous when you also consider the fact that they seem to forget all the poor Asylum Seekers who can’t afford to pay the People Smugglers to circumvent the system and come here by boat. Just plain irrational, really, that’s The Greens.
An orderly Region-wide system as approved at the ALP National Conference, with an increased intake, is the only way to sanely and compassionately square the Asylum Seeker circle, IMHO.
fredn
[Well as a centre voter that has no party allegiances I thought the Labor party conference was great. Issues got debated and policies were decided. Yes factions may have determined outcomes, but at least we got a good look at the alternate points of view.]
I’ll second that.It really struck me this morning as the conference entrails were picked over on the radio the stark contrast with other political party’s conferences. A contrast that I thought reflects very well on Labor. A conference with real debate instead of a set piece veni vidi vici from “The Leader”. One reform they are in desperate need of however is the voting system when a count is required.
bemused @218,
Yes I read that article by Hawker and have advocated similar within the party myself. I even got my Branch President, a leader of the ETU in NSW to agree with me. The smarter of the Union leaders do actually see the writing on the wall and are just waiting for the troglodytes to catch up. That is where the real power struggle within the party is going to come from, those with an old world view of the Union movement & it’s place within the ALP and their power-base as a result of that(which will erode if change is made), and the more enlightened Unionists.
Bore War @ 213
You just can’t help yourself can you?
Why are the Liberals even talking about a conscience vote? According to them they can vote for or against any bill and are not bound like Labor politicians to the party line.
rosa @189
I agree with you.
That should have said Rosa @169
mari
[confessions
He said he was aware they were as bad as Labor’s but if he wrote about them he’d be accused of bias!!
And that sums up the problems with our media today
By his employer I guess, I thought Journos were supposed to write without “fear or favour” Not this present day lot]
Mari, JTI has never been hesitant when it comes to kicking the Coalition. Comb through his articles and you will find no shortage of Abbott kicking and before that Nelson and Turnbull kicking. He is already often accused of bias ( pro Labor) so perhaps his comment was a bit tongue in cheek.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nYfDTsjwE58
2 prime ministers same speech check it out
http://blog.buzzflash.com/node/13187 what harper is now doing in canada
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nCFmMWs1bY libertarians in the 1930’s
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nt5RZ6ukbNc
colin powell’s weapons of mass destruction speech the biggest lie thus far this century
From ‘Breakfast Politics’ —
[Curtin & Chif thought the year ended so much better than it started. A price on carbon was secured, the community is to get a fairer share of the nation’s mineral wealth and Curtin, in particular, loved the way GIllard took a leaf from his own book concerning the Speaker – as Keating put it this week, it’s “a bull point for stability and therefore for the nation, regardless of who said what to who”.
The parliamentary break has begun. Enjoy it! Have a peaceful holiday season. See you in 2012.
– The BP Team.]
http://www.breakfastpolitics.com/
[poroti
Posted Monday, December 5, 2011 at 11:00 am | Permalink
mari
confessions
He said he was aware they were as bad as Labor’s but if he wrote about them he’d be accused of bias!!
And that sums up the problems with our media today
By his employer I guess, I thought Journos were supposed to write without “fear or favour” Not this present day lot
Mari, JTI has never been hesitant when it comes to kicking the Coalition. Comb through his articles and you will find no shortage of Abbott kicking and before that Nelson and Turnbull kicking. He is already often accused of bias ( pro Labor) so perhaps his comment was a bit tongue in cheek.]
Hopefully you are right, I always used to read his blogs, but havn’t lately, not sure why.
By the way noticed Latika was quickly on to tweeting Laura T article, still havn’t seen a tweet from her about the The Age Article on Coalition costing
Interesting about Franie on early morning ABC breakfast on RN.
I was never aware of her – or at least her Liberal-leaning tendencies – until the period after the election when discussions were going on about who would form government.
She breathlessly told her viewers at the time (don’t know why she was on TV) – just before the Indies made their decision – that a Liberal/Tony Abbott lead government was about to happen.
Then when it didn’t happen she looked so disappointed and almost incredulous.
It seems she is one of the Liberal carpet baggers who where their heart on their sleeve in “Our ABC”.
If the Greens think that widening their political coverage and appeal is achieved by having people like Senator Rhiannon on show in the parliament, then, I think, they are mistaken.
C@tmomma @ 222
I attended the presentation of their report by Bracks, Faulkner and Carr in Victoria and what I recall of the discussion was a call to not sever the relationship with the unions but to bring it up to date with contemporary realities.
I agree, but that just opens up another debate, that needs to be had, on what the contemporary realities are and how they can be reflected.
For example, I would like to see Union members, if they wished, pay an additional small fee to make them paid up ALP members with full membership rights.
I would like to see a requirement that union delegates to ALP conferences be democratically elected by all ALP members within their union.
Boerwar,
[Mr Rudd does not care because it is all about Mr Rudd!.]
You have absolutely no way of knowing that unless you have spent an extended time inside the guy’s shoes and head. Which, obviously, you haven’t, so please don’t pass off what is likely to be prejudiced speculation as fact. Boer, normally you’re one of the most astute, high-value, not-to-be missed commenters on this blog. But when you ‘do the Rudd thing’ it’s with great regret that I have to scroll past your comments. Please give it a rest.
It would have been pretty humiliating to be on the Left and lose every major vote for three days, knowing that the next conference would be just the same.
[Tricot
Posted Monday, December 5, 2011 at 11:05 am | Permalink
Interesting about Franie on early morning ABC breakfast on RN.
I was never aware of her – or at least her Liberal-leaning tendencies – until the period after the election when discussions were going on about who would form government.
She breathlessly told her viewers at the time (don’t know why she was on TV) – just before the Indies made their decision – that a Liberal/Tony Abbott lead government was about to happen.
Then when it didn’t happen she looked so disappointed and almost incredulous.
It seems she is one of the Liberal carpet baggers who where their heart on their sleeve in “Our ABC”.]
Yes I was the same I always listened to RN and enjoyed it, but her obvious bias coupled with Michelle G after the election, prompted me to send some comments to the Comp. Dept, which of course was airbrushed off, so I did what I threaten to do turned off RN.
Poroti On reading my comment, I didn’t mean to say that about JTI only, I was generalising about present day journos writing with”fear or favour”??? Wish we could the likes of Alan Ramsay back , he did write without fear or favour, I used to go to his column first in SMH
Tricot,
[Interesting about Franie on early morning ABC breakfast on RN.]
Are you referring to Fran Kelly?
mari
Have a trot over to JTI’s again some time .There is even a recent one on the polls for you inner pseph. The current one on gay marriage will give you an idea why the right leaning peeps look at him as a bit of a lefty.
[The middle there to be won or lost
IT’s been a while since we had a discussion on polling on this blog. I determined that with so long before the next election, the political situation was evolving and trends were of no great moment under those circumstances]
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/the_middle_there_to_be_won_or_lost/
mari
[Wish we could the likes of Alan Ramsay back , he did write without fear or favour, I used to go to his column first in SMH]
There is a name I’d forgotten all about. I will agree with you on that one for sure.
[I would like to see a requirement that union delegates to ALP conferences be democratically elected by all ALP members within their union.]
I’d like to see some evidence that every shoppie union member is from the far religious right. Do their members agree with the way they vote?
Thanks Poroti (237) I will go and read JTI, never can tell may start reading them again, on reflection probably stopped because of the Oz Influence itself
One really has to laugh.
When the Bracks et al report was released it was held by many, including some here, as the holy Grail. A well written insightful document that needed to be implemented asap.
Now that the second part has been released that takes a swipe at the Rudd government all of a sudden it is biased and only reflects the views of the “Rudd Haters ”
Both parts were authored by the same people. Either all is tainted or none. You cannot have it both ways.
Unbelieveable !
bemused @ 232,
My own idea was to eliminate Union block contributions entirely, and thus block Union representation of 50% of the ALP at Conference, such that if any Union can gather individual numbers of members in support of the ALP together, then they get an equivalent vote in the party. This way they might actually have to get their members to approve of their positions and their alignment to the party. I was told that many members of the Unions still voted for the Liberal Party at the 2010 election, when it came to their individual choice at the ballot box, whilst at one and the same time supporting the concept of Unionism. The non Green voting Blue Collar social conservatives Julia Gillard is trying to hang on to.
[An orderly Region-wide system as approved at the ALP National Conference, with an increased intake, is the only way to sanely and compassionately square the Asylum Seeker circle, IMHO.]
Yes, that’s my view as well. I was pleased with the AS resolution from conference.
Diogs,
You join the party and then your demands/bleatings might have some force.
Cuppa@236 – the very same. And Mari@235 – That was my reaction too.
She seemed, up until some not too distance time in the past, as a (correctly on ABC) disinterested presenter.
I don’t listen that much to her these days but from what others have been saying this morning at at other times on PB, she is now clearly in the Liberal Lovers camp.
As far as Michelle G is concerned – the doyen – so say of the Canberra Press Gallery, her relevance and impact have long ago waned.
Diogenes @ 239
The answer to the question is ‘no’.
De Bruyn and cronies would hand pick the delegates. That is a major fault in the system that I would like to see rectified. But it would be fiercely opposed by union officials of all factions as it would reduce their personal power.
Cuppa – the moment I read a biography in which the author tries to put himself in the head of the biographee and tell me what they were thinking at a particular moment – I throw it away.
Doyley @ 241:
Well said!
Who can forget the fevered insistence that the PM implement the report’s recommendations post haste, and that failure to do so was just further proof of her being in the clutches of the faceless men.
Doyley @ 241
I totally agree.