Newspoll quarterly breakdowns

Newspoll published its quarterly geographic and demographic breakdowns on December 29 (full tables from GhostWhoVotes), aggregating all its polling from October to December to produce credible sub-samples by state, gender and age. This period neatly coincided with Labor’s mild late-year recovery, with the overall two-party lead recorded for the Coalition at 55-45 compared with 57-43 for July-September. The shifts proved fairly consistent across all states, such that the relativities are much as they have been since the election: Labor holding up relatively well in Victoria and South Australia (two-party preferred in both now 50-50), hardest hit in New South Wales (6.5 per cent lower on two-party than at the election), still in dire straits in Queensland (41 per cent two-party against an election result of 44.9 per cent) and not appreciably weakened from a disastrous election performance in Western Australia (43 per cent against 43.6 per cent).

The weakening in support recorded for the Coalition was, to a statistically significant extent, greater among women than men. The current gender gap on the Labor primary vote is 6 per cent – equal to the April-June quarter and the final poll before the 2010 election, but otherwise without precedent since Newspoll began publishing quarterly breakdowns in 1996. Of borderline statistical significance is the distinction between the capital cities and non-capitals: the Coalition’s lead is only down from 54-46 to 53-47 in the capitals, but from 61-39 to 57-43 elsewhere.

Newspoll also offered us an abundance of state polling during my fortnight off, which you can read about in the posts below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,830 comments on “Newspoll quarterly breakdowns”

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  1. [The L-NP primary vote is 45% (up 2%) – well ahead of the ALP 37% (up 0.5%). Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 10.5% (down 2.5%) and Others/ Independents 7.5% (unchanged).]

    Poor Bobby B. 😆

  2. [ruawake

    Posted Thursday, January 12, 2012 at 4:00 pm | Permalink

    The L-NP primary vote is 45% (up 2%) – well ahead of the ALP 37% (up 0.5%). Support for the minor parties shows the Greens 10.5% (down 2.5%) and Others/ Independents 7.5% (unchanged).

    Poor Bobby B.
    ]

    Damn those silly pirates, I mean Activists 🙂

  3. [victoria
    Posted Thursday, January 12, 2012 at 1:28 pm | Permalink

    lizzie

    Yes at state level. Although as shown on the report, the Federal Lib senators and MPs want the Plan to be implemented. They are at odds with The federal Nationals]

    I haven’t seen the report, but I assume one of the SA Senators would be Birmingham who has a fair degree of common sense and integrity.

    I’d like to think that any South Australian would object to Barnyard’s populist pandering to the upriver irrigators. If the Murray goes through salinity and droughts, SA is in dire straights. It wouldn’t hurt Senator X to do some grandstanding on this issue, and get the Indies in the lower house on side.

    Such a campaign would have more weight if Pyne, as a senior shadow minister, got behind it. But he won’t. He’s such a crawler, he’s probably frightened it would damage his place in the pecking order. Bernardi is probably too busy rustling up his neo-racist xenophobia and borrowing tea party tactics.

    Still, anyone trying to save the MDB system is welcome at present.

  7. Re Morgan: for all its eccentricities as a polling organisation, the latest poll is still good news for the Government! Using the last election method for allocating prefernces, it sits at 48.5/51.5. The PM would still be pretty pleased with that!

  8. Laocoon 1797

    Thanks that SMH story is funny/sad. The pathetic part is that I’m pretty sure that there have been stories in the same paper about consumer spending being subdued because people are paying down their credit card debts instead!

  9. The Chainsaw – Mirrabella stuff on car subsidies is interesting. They are basically saying sorry guys find half a billion from somewhere else.

    Surely Robb has to respond to his savings being scrapped?

  12. Outsider @ 1807

    I take it that is 51.5 to the Noalition and 48.5 to the ALP?

    If so then yes those are good at this point in time.

  13. ru,

    Everyone is in the Liberal party is totally committed to the plans to slash Government spending. Only, due to the peculiar and vital nature of the areas under their individual control, they can not contribute to the reduction. However, they do re affirm their committment to the concept.

  14. Socrates

    [I’m pretty sure that there have been stories in the same paper about consumer spending being subdued because people are paying down their credit card debts instead!]

    Spot on! For ages we’ve been told by the msm that consumers are spending less because they are paying off their credit cards. Now it seems they’ve been spending as much as ever. So if no-one is buying from Hardly Normal and the like just what is being whacked on all those credit cards? Drugs? Booze?

  23. [He says the price of iron ore has fallen around 30 per cent since May 2010, when the figures were calculated.]

    What about the cost of Thermal Coal? Oh it increased.

  28. [Gordon Graham
    @gordongraham
    car industry assistance and the MDB are splitting the Coalition right now and we’re only 12 days into the year … more to come #auspol]

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