Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition

Bernard Keane at Crikey reports the first Essential Research poll for the year has the two-party vote at the same place as the final poll last year, with the Coalition leading 54-46. Also featured are leaders’ personal ratings which you can read about at the link. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full post here. The voting intention figures are a rolling average of the last result last year and the first result this year – Essential advises me that in both periods the result was 54-46. Results to questions on leadership approval are derived as always from this week’s sample only. Both leaders are up three on approval and down two on disapproval since a month ago, Julia Gillard to 37 per cent and 52 per cent, Tony Abbott to 35 per cent and 51 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, Gillard’s lead going from 39-35 to 39-36. It should be noted that polls conducted over the new year period are often thought to be unreliable, although neither Essential nor Morgan has produced anything out of the ordinary.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

5,645 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Coalition”

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  1. Gee, you’d have thought with all those policies up their sleeves (according to Fitzgerald), and “sharks circling Tony Abbott” (as the DT put it) the Coalition would have been miles ahead by now.

  2. Gee, the pollsters didn’t have much of a break. Here we are the second week of January and they’re into it already!

  4. Confessions, without polls there is no news. Some of those journalists couldn’t survive without them. And it gives Andrew Robb something to talk most – most of his interviews contain at least one sneering reference to the polls.

  5. yes and essential are on going from the previous for tnight.
    and as often wondered are
    labor people likely to register to be polled, I doubt it.

  8. Victoria:

    I don’t think the MSM are interested in that. They’re getting all their expert opinion on how the talks are going from Nick Xenophon.

  10. who pays for theses polls that’s never said
    why do cmo panies do them I know newspoll is part of newsltd
    but the other ones

    this a question for you William
    WIIILAM!
    why don’t u ask essential and Morgan. surely they just don’t do polls
    because they want to, after all its a business,
    so who asks for them to be done

    just wondering

  11. Aguirre

    Apparently, Wilkie has flown to Adelaide to have a talk with sen x this afternoon. A political journo on ABC24 earlier on said that Sen X will respect Wilkie’s wishes for confidentiality

  12. Hello all. Not much to see in this poll as far as I can tell.

    I have been doing a bit of reading on Italy and Europe finance and I came across this charming story about pay for parliamentary staff in Italy. What a racket! I don’t know if this will leave Harry Evans outraged or green with envy, but the salary deals for Italian Senate staff are actually much better than for their polies:
    [And that issue is the overall cost of Italy’s resource-devouring political merry-go-round – the 52 buildings occupied by the parliamentary powers-that-be, the cost of red tape and the cost of the political structures, regional authorities, provincial authorities, myriad intermediate bodies and mixed capital enterprises that serve to feed a self-referential system.

    The pay packets handed out to Senate employees say it all…. Gross of tax and the Tremonti cuts, a clerk or barber can pick up €160,000, an assistant €192,000, a secretary €256,000 and an adviser €417,000.

    …A 53-year-old parliamentary adviser hired at the age of 27, who purchased pension rights for four years spent at university, has accumulated 38 years of pensionable service. This means he or she can retire on €300,000 gross per annum, the equivalent of 85% of final salary. Should he or she stay on to the bitter end – age 60, in this context – then the pension becomes 90% of final salary, more than €370,000 of the maximum €417,000. Lower pay bands work in much the same way.]
    http://www.corriere.it/english/12_gennaio_04/senate-stenographer_68d6317e-36e8-11e1-9e16-04ae59d99677.shtml

    And people wonder why Italy can’t pay its bills? Even NSW State Labor are amateurs at fleecing the public purse compared to these guys.

    Seriously, I can’t help thinking this sums up the inability of Europe to solve its financial woes. Too many of the decision makers are themselves part of the problem. So the problem drags on. Europe will remain in recession.

    Meanwhile, things here are still swimming along, though very patchilly. NT is booming with a $33 billion gas deal:
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-01-13/130112-inpex-announcement/3770578

  13. [Confessions, without polls there is no news. Some of those journalists couldn’t survive without them.]

    An understatement if ever there was one. 😀

  14. My Say, no one pays for Essential Research or Morgan. They do it for the publicity, which helps with business for the parts of their work that actually makes money – commercial market research and public relations. The foregoing is also true of Newspoll and Nielsen, but as well as that The Australian and the SMH/Age also pay them for their polling.

  16. William, is this Essential still a 2 week rolling average, so including December’s last survey? Not that it would likely make much difference.

  19. The DT, making things up again.

    Spot the difference between the headline and the actual intent of the Coalition:

    [Coalition has pledged to sack dozens
    of highly paid Defence bureaucrats
    and end Labor’s defence splurge
    THE Coalition has pledged to sack dozens of highly paid Defence bureaucrats and end Labor’s defence reviews splurge that has cost taxpayers more than $20 million.

    Defence Minister Stephen Smith has ordered 33 major reviews of the department since he took office in September 2010.

    Figures show that 20 of the reviews have not been costed. The remainder have set taxpayers back $17.7 million.

    The review splurge coincides with a massive increase in the number of senior executives employed by the Department of Defence, including 14 deputy secretaries and two new associate secretaries that the Coalition has pledged to remove. These public servants earn between $300,000 and $400,000 a year each.

    “We will get rid of the two associate secretaries,” opposition spokesman Stuart Robert said.]

    Labor never “spends” or “funds”. It “splurges”. So, what are these “splurges”?

    [Some of the big ticket reviews include $6 million for law firm DLA Piper to review allegations of abuse in the wake of the Skype sex scandal, $5.4 million for the Pappas review of the defence budget, $1.6 million for the Collins submarine review by British submarine expert John Coles and $352,000 for a review of the cadet scheme.]

    Go on, add ’em up. This “some of the bif ticket reviews” comes to $13.3 million, including what seems to be a comprehensive review into the Skype scandal that the DT made a lot of front-page hay about (and more since), a review of the Defence budget which – as it’s generally regarded to have blown out under Howard – mightn’t be a bad idea, and a check of the hugely expansive Collins-class submarines by an expert, John Coles.

    I suppose the latter could have been cheaper if he’d either just picked up the phone or Wiki’d Collins Class Submarine.

    $17 million in total! For a department that has billions and billions being mis-spent, while it is trying to fight a war in Afghanistan, that doesn’t seem to be too much. And the Coalition – champions of National Security – are going to just let things go the way they were, with some sackings as the teaser for the “bury the bludgers” Bogan vote.

    And what should the government be doing?

    [“It is time to cease the reviews and rebuild some trust with the senior officers Mr Robert said.]

    Oh, that’ll work.

    The Opposition Shadow reckons you can fix things up in Defence, says there’s a “plurge” in progress, after the squandering of billions by their “procurement” team… all by “rebuilding trust”.

    Why didn’t Stephen Smith think of that?

    Damn Labor…

  20. Jon Huntsman would have given Obama a tough team in November, if he’d been the Republican nominee, but obviously too far to the centre for the Republican establishment/Tea Party nutjobs. n

  21. Damn. I posted this on the previous thread in reply to my say without realizing there was a new one. So at the risk of annoying William I’ll repost it here.

    [with out the internet our forebears, where certainly in the dark just relying. on papers]

    Actually the internet got started a lot earlier than you might think my say.

    Read on

    HOW THE INTERNET GOT STARTED

    In ancient Israel , it came to pass that a trader by the name of Abraham Com did take unto himself a young wife by the name of Dot. And Dot Com was a comely woman, broad of shoulder and long of leg. Indeed, she was often called Amazon Dot Com.
    And she said unto Abraham, her husband, “Why dost thou travel so far from town to town with thy goods when thou canst trade without ever leaving thy tent?
    And Abraham did look at her as though she were several saddle bags short of a camel load, but simply said, “How, dear?”

    And Dot replied, “I will place drums in all the towns and drums in between to send messages saying what you have for sale, and they will reply telling you who hath the best price. And the sale can be made on the drums and delivery made by Uriah’s Pony Stable (UPS).”

    Abraham thought long and decided he would let Dot have her way with the drums. And the drums rang out and were an immediate success. Abraham sold all the goods he had at the top price, without ever having to move from his tent. To prevent neighboring countries from overhearing what the drums were saying, Dot devised a system that only she and the drummers knew. It was known as Must Send Drum Over Sound (MSDOS), and she also developed a language to transmit ideas and pictures – Hebrew To The People (HTTP).

    And the young men did take to Dot Com’s trading as doth the greedy horsefly take to camel dung. They were called Nomadic Ecclesiastical Rich Dominican Sybarites, or NERDS.

    And lo, the land was so feverish with joy at the new riches and the deafening sound of drums that no one noticed that the real riches were going to that enterprising drum dealer, Brother William of Gates, who bought off every drum maker in the land. And indeed did insist on drums to be made that would work only with Brother Gates’ drumheads and drumsticks.

    And Dot did say, “Oh, Abraham, what we have started is being taken over by others.” And Abraham looked out over the Bay of Ezekiel , or eBay as it came to be known. He said, “We need a name that reflects what we are. And Dot replied, “Young Ambitious Hebrew Owner Operators.” “YAHOO,” said Abraham. And because it was Dot’s idea, they named it YAHOO Dot Com.

    Abraham’s cousin, Joshua, being the young Gregarious Energetic Educated Kid (GEEK) that he was, soon started using Dot’s drums to locate things around the countryside. It soon became known as God’s Own Official Guide to Locating Everything (GOOGLE).
    That is how it all began. And that’s the truth

  22. Essential seems to stack up with Morgan almost exactly.

    Huntsman’s out but his fellow Mormon may well be the next POTUS.

  23. The Finnigans
    Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 at 12:45 pm | Permalink

    Preloaded on the Transformer Prime is Polaris® Office® 3.0

    Is this a full functioning copy & what browser you use on this? thanks

    Finns – Polaris certainly appears to be a fully functional copy – I’ve only had the Prime a day and half.

    I also saw and downloaded a free app yesterday called “Documents to Go” which reads and allows access to Word, Excel & Power Point files and attachments. It will also open PDF docs and can be upgraded for a small cost to then sync files with your PC.

    At present am using the stock ASUS browser but have read that the one produced by your mates, the *Dolphin* browser is the way to go so I will download that soon.

    Am currently doing research on what other apps are out there and looking through reviews etc on them.

  25. and that’s the truth and u know it is,,,,,,,,
    great stuff. darn

    seriously I did hear a story that Swiss yoderling, sends messages also

    sorry, have no idea how to spell yoderling

    dear o me what an odd name for the times. DOT, do the dorothy.,s of the world know that story
    lol

  27. Andrew Bunn of Essential writes that Essential is indeed a rolling average of the last poll last year and the first poll this year: “Not that it makes any difference as the 2pp for both weeks was 54/46.”

  30. Happy New Year to everyone.

    First day back at work and a couple of polls up and about already.

    Wishing everyone a great 2012, especially the Federal Government.

  31. [FORMER Utah Governor Jon Huntsman will bow out of the Republican presidential race, FOX News confirmed today.

    Huntsman told advisers of his decision – the same day that his campaign was boosted by the endorsement of South Carolina’s largest newspaper, The State.

    He will formally withdraw and endorse the campaign frontrunner, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, at 11am local time at the Myrtle Beach Conventions Centre.]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/breaking-news/huntsman-to-withdraw-from-gop-presidential-race-endorse-romney/story-e6frf7jx-1226245449443

  33. Tom Hawkins (from last comments on previous thread)

    Re the cancellation of Their ABC’s ‘At Home With Julia’…

    The sex-in-the-flag episode raised the ire of the Coalition:

    Coalition MPs ‘disgusted’ by ABC’s At Home with Julia sex scene
    http://www.news.com.au/entertainment/television/coalition-mps-disgusted-by-abc-gillard-sex-scene/story-e6frfmyi-1226141860818

    Julia Gillard comedy not funny, say Coalition MPs
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/archive/business-old/pm-comedy-not-funny-say-coalition-mps/story-e6frg8mf-1226141885386

    …And that was the last we saw of the show.

    [… {comedians Amanda Bishop and Phil Lloyd} allegedly wrote six episodes of the show, but the last two were never filmed and will not go to air.]
    http://www.imdb.com/news/ni15912237/

  36. Geez, you really would feel stupid, wouldn’t you?

    [Criminals hit the jackpot in Victoria with $55K lottery scam
    CRIME syndicates are setting up fake lotteries to swindle Australians with promises of windfall jackpots.

    A Victorian man has become the latest victim, losing $55,000 in bogus administration fees when he tried to claim a supposed $4.5 million fortune.

    The theft is one of the biggest lottery fraud losses reported to Consumer Affairs Victoria.

    The man told the watchdog and police that he transferred the cash after responding to an email sent to his wife advising of the massive win.]

    http://www.news.com.au/money/money-matters/criminals-hit-the-jackpot-with-55k-lotto-scam/story-e6frfmd9-1226245044143#ixzz1jaT73aA7

    Greed really DOES know no bounds, does it?

    Having said that, I really DID win the jackpot last week. I was contacted by the NBN company who said that a technical breakthrough had made it possible for me to get 100mbits/sec immediately through my Foxtel cable. I’m going to be the first one in my area, a special “Beta Tester” user.

    Now, I’ve read in the Tele that a one-off connection is going to cost your Average Joe $17,000, but because I’ve been such a loyal Telstra customer, the NBN are just about giving it away to me for $5,000.

    I’ve sent off the money, and I’m just waiting for the password to come.

  40. [That almost puts it in the ’7.30′ league!]

    Speaking of 7.30, is it true they’re going to run it again this year?

  43. From the previous thread:

    [2159

    Frank Calabrese

    Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 at 2:35 pm | Permalink

    2027

    victoria

    Posted Monday, January 16, 2012 at 7:57 am | Permalink

    Ozymandias

    Oh dear fellow bludger Frank Calabrese wont be happy

    3/4 Beatup.

    Tunley has ruled himself out

    Eric will survive.
    ]

    That so-called article is full of speculation.

    and my source says it’s basically Allanah cusing Mischief.

  44. [They probably did not bother witn the last two episodes due to the ratings plunge]

    Maybe, but Their ABC was spinning about how “well it was received”. I strongly suspect it was pulled due to criticism from some quarters.

    [Speaking of 7.30, is it true they’re going to run it again this year?]

    With its current co-presenters and “balanced” approach, I’d say it’s almost guaranteed another run, low ratings notwithstanding.

  45. [The Wikipedia page shows a steady shedding of viewers, from the first episode to the fourth (final).

    Episode One 1,179,687
    Episode Two 1,044,108
    Episode Three 903,731
    Episode Four 751,000

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/At_Home_With_Julia%5D

    Just put this in Excel as a chart with a trendline.

    The decline is almost perfectly linear, showing an average of 142,000 viewers lost each week, give or take 10,000.

    If the extra two episodes had been made and run, AHWJ – at the rate they were losing audience share – would have bottomed out at 400-450,000 in the last week, less than half its starting audience.

    I think that would have been too much for them to explain away.

  48. I see that Mr Rudd’s Libyan War continues.

    It turns out that is still not a walk in the park and that it is still not perfect. But it must still be good, I suppose.

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