Newspoll, Essential Research and Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition

UPDATE: The first Newspoll result of the year has just been reported, and I’m sticking it on the top of the existing post because of technical difficulties we’re having. The poll has the Coalition leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, in common with Essential Research and Galaxy (see below), and indeed with last year’s final Newspoll result from December 2-4. However, Newspoll has both parties solidly lower on the primary vote than the other two pollsters, at 30 per cent for Labor and 45 per cent for the Coalition – which is respectively down one and up one on the December poll. Julia Gillard’s approval rating is also down three points to 33 per cent and her disapproval is down one to 55 per cent. Tony Abbott’s numbers are all but identical to Gillard’s, his approval steady on 32 per cent and disapproval down two to 55 per cent. Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister has narrowed from 43-36 to 40-37.

The Daily Telegraph reports Galaxy’s first poll of federal voting intention since October is in line with other recent polling in showing the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead at 54-46, from primary votes of 34 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 12 per cent for the Greens. However, Kevin Rudd’s big lead over Julia Gillard in a head-to-head contest for preferred Labor leader is essentially unchanged at 52 per cent to 30 per cent, compared with 53 per cent to 29 per cent in October. When Bill Shorten is thrown in as a third contender he scores 14 per cent to Rudd’s 44 per cent and Gillard’s 27 per cent. The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday (i.e. today if you’re reading this soon enough) from a sample of 1001, with a margin of error of about 3 per cent.

Essential Research has the Coalition leading 54-46 from primary votes of 35 per cent for Labor, 48 per cent for the Coalition and 10 per cent for the Greens, which differs from last week only in that the Greens are a point higher, and is exactly the same as the week before. The supplementary questions include some zingers, not least the finding that our greatest Prime Ministers of the past 70 years were John Howard (33 per cent, up from 28 per cent when the question was last asked in January 2009) followed by Kevin Rudd and Bob Hawke (15 per cent). Howard scores no less than 61 per cent among Coalition voters, leaving Bob Menzies for dust on 18 per cent, while Labor supporters divide much more evenly between Hawke and Rudd, and to a lesser extent Whitlam and Keating. Poor old Malcolm Fraser scores a third of Gough Whitlam, a fifth of Bob Hawke and an eleventh of John Howard. Also featured are blast-from-the-past questions on how respondents rate the Building the Education Revolution: 30 per cent good and 31 per cent poor, although that includes 15 per cent very poor and only 7 per cent very good. Desire for a new election is essentially unchanged on December, at 40 per cent for and 48 per cent against, and support for a trial of mandatory pre-commitment is at 58 per cent with 29 per cent opposed – though I would sooner have seen support for it compared with a non-trial introduction before the election

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

7,262 comments on “Newspoll, Essential Research and Galaxy: 54-46 to Coalition”

Comments Page 1 of 146
1 2 … 146

  1. Hmm, so despite the hoo hah of the past fortnite, the ALPs vote seems to be trending upwards ?
    Whats Tonys personal approval ?
    Perhaps people are turning off him ?

  2. And here we go, chief FW, the Herald Sun

    [Gillard on the outer in Galaxy poll]

    and

    [But while Labor’s numbers have edged up, voters just don’t seem to like Gillard.]

  3. (missed the new thread from WB)
    If the tent embassy question was a Dorothy Dixer (and I don’t know if it was; the media cover-up means I don’t even know who the woman is) then it should be called out for what it is.

    It is corruption.

    The press conference concept has been corrupted from a statement + media questions to statement + statement the politician was too gutless to make but gets a stooge to ask as a DD + media questions. The idea of independent scrutiny by the media is shown to be a farce.

    It is misleading and deceptive conduct by the media companies

    They are knowingly publishing material that is designed to mislead and deceive their consumers that the questions at the press conferences are their own independent workings, rather than planted by the interviewee

    To stretch the analogy, it is a bit like dummy bidding at house auctions. “Everyone” did it. There was no “victim”. But it was a corruption of the concept of an open auction. It was misleading and deceptive. And it is now no longer lawful. Or a bit like stockbroker research reports – nowadays, the author must personally vouch for the personal responsibility for its production and the employer is required to implement procedures to achieve this.

    (And of course, Abbott should be called out as a deceitful, two-faced, shameless hypocrite.)

  4. [gordongraham: @SpaceKidette mind you, this poll shows the Rudd popularity is clearly coming from L/NP voters]

    [gordongraham: @SpaceKidette among ALP voters it’s split 49/48 in Gillard’s favour. With L/NP voters it’s 53/21 in Rudd’s favour]

  5. [ so despite the hoo hah of the past fortnite, the ALPs vote seems to be trending upwards ]

    yes it does despite how impossible it seems. It must be the left over xmas cheer rubbing off on how people think of Labor.

  8. Just watched the recorded ABC ACT 7pm news. It was an absolute outrage. First item was the ‘riot’ with wtte that the furore is only getting worse. It was entirely a free kick for Abbott to sprout his rubbish including a claim that the government is based on dirty tricks and spin. I am staggered to think that these biased clowns think that this beat-up is of any interest to the average Australian let alone worthy of headline coverage.

  10. interesting from the poll article William linked to

    The bad news for Ms Gillard’s leadership came as independent Andrew Wilkie yesterday said he would consider a no-confidence motion against the government over the Australia Day riot if the Coalition put a motion to debate the issue in parliament.

  11. [Or maybe people are waking up to the fact that Abbott is pissweak]

    Well there in for a shock when they refocus on Gillard the dear leader.

  12. btw

    StGusface Gusface
    @ @MikeKellyMP hey mike- time to get a media inquiry going methinks- TOR the deliberate lies that the MSM peddle #fibs #mediafail

    ………………………………….

    MikeKellyMP Mike Kelly MP
    @ @StGusface if we didn’t want it to go for a century maybe we could have an inquiry into what gets reported accurately.

    the man has a good sense of humour

  13. I can hear Rummel tearing up from here.

    Laocoon:

    I wouldn’t get too concerned about the Dorothy Dixer. That sort of a charge could never be proven. The point as far as I care is that he was asked whether the Tent Embassy was relevant or whether it should be moved, and in reply he gave a bunch of reasons why it was no longer relevant and then said it was time to move on. He answered the question in the affirmative. He didn’t disagree with it at any stage.

    So he wasn’t misrepresented. The media reports overstated what he said, but it was his message they relayed.

    Misrepresentation is the entire basis of his outrage. He doesn’t have a case there.

  14. [Well there in for a shock when they refocus on Gillard the dear leader.]

    The focus will continue to grow on the pissweak one, hes the one who hides behind womans skirts

  16. [The focus will continue to grow on the pissweak one, hes the one who hides behind womans skirts]

    Where did that happen?. Oh thats right, the incident written and authorised by Gillards media man.

  19. LOL at the Daily Terror
    [The first poll to be published for 2012…]

    Don’t mention the Morgan, don’t mention the Morgan 😀

    I wonder if the renewed hysterics from Abbott & the MSM are in reaction to what the polling is saying? All Abbott’s stunts and stupid statements in 2012 look to have a whiff of desperation about them and have usually gone on to backfire.

    The truck,
    Linking The Pacific Highway tragedy to the NBN
    Car industry support backflip
    The Costa Concordia remarks
    ‘Turn back the boats’ being ridiculed & now the Tent Embassy remarks backfiring.

  20. [Where did that happen?. Oh thats right, the incident written and authorised by Gillards media man.]

    You’re making the assumption that people will hold the PM personally responsible for what happened, they won’t.
    Only an ingrate would assume otherwise

  21. [gusface

    Posted Sunday, January 29, 2012 at 10:56 pm | Permalink

    mind you, this poll shows the Rudd popularity is clearly coming from L/NP voters

    Frank is right

    the ruddista’s are just tory trolls
    ]

    Of course I am 🙂

    [10

    womble

    Posted Sunday, January 29, 2012 at 10:59 pm | Permalink

    interesting from the poll article William linked to

    The bad news for Ms Gillard’s leadership came as independent Andrew Wilkie yesterday said he would consider a no-confidence motion against the government over the Australia Day riot if the Coalition put a motion to debate the issue in parliament.
    ]
    Except that it will still fail cos of Windsor and Oakshott 🙂

  27. Indeed it would Frank – will keep the issue alive though and give you more time to find out who asked the question 🙂

    Wouldn’t it be great if they debate it in parliament and it comes out the question was staged 🙂

  28. Aguirre

    Saving Abbott’s ass…is that sufficient motivation for a media cover-up? Even Australia’s?? 😉 It’s past my bedtime now, so not thinking particularly well…but my evil mind reflected on this…
    [That sort of a charge could never be proven.]
    Could it be that there was a DD…and alas, there is proof somewhere?? Email? They are just a nightmare to get rid of

    **off to the land of nod**

  35. Still no reply to this:

    [frankscan65Frank Calabrese

    @

    @spicertracey Tracey, do you recognise the female reporter who asked Tony Abbott about the Tent Embassy in that Aust Day Presser ?

    2 hours ago FavoriteReplyDelete]

  40. [victoria

    Posted Sunday, January 29, 2012 at 11:22 pm | Permalink

    Frank Calabrese

    Do you think Possum could find out?
    ]

    Poss on the downplaying the riot side.

    I will keep asking till I get an Answer

  43. I clicked on that article regarding Wilkie considering supporting a no-confidence motion. Storm in a teacup, but not as silly as what Brandis is considering. He intends citing section 47 of the ACT Criminal Code – Incitement – to the AFP.

    Small problem being that it specifically refers to an offence being committed. It has to be proven not only that an offence was committed, but that the person has to intend that the offence cited was to be committed.

    So Brandis has to demonstrate that Hodges intended a specific offence be committed, for any charges to proceed – or I assume for anything to be investigated. Hodges has to be proven to have said or communicated that he wanted this specific offence to be committed.

    In short – Brandis intends to waste the time and resources of the AFP for no better reason than to make a political point.

  49. [In short – Brandis intends to waste the time and resources of the AFP for no better reason than to make a political point.]

    So things as usual for him, then. 😉

  50. Won’t Labor need some of those LNP voters who favour Rudd if they want to get ahead in the polls?

    They could always concentrate on the 21% who favour Gillard. Or the 26% uncommitted.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 146
1 2 … 146