I have had occasion on this site to mock those who like to predict what the results of looming opinion polls might be. GhostWhoVotes relates that tomorrow’s Newspoll offers an excellent case study on this count: the Coalition’s two-party preferred lead has narrowed since a fortnight ago from 55-45 to 53-47, with Labor’s primary vote up three to 35 per cent (their best result since March last year) and the Coalition’s down one to 45 per cent. However, the script has been followed with respect to Julia Gillard, whose approval rating has plunged six points to 26 per cent while her disapproval rating is up seven to 64 per cent. However, Tony Abbott too has taken a bit hit, down five points on approval to a new low of 31 per cent and up five on disapproval to 57 per cent. Preferred prime minister is little changed, with Abbott’s lead down from 40-37 to 38-36.
UPDATE: The poll also has Kevin Rudd leading Julia Gillard as preferred Labor leader 53 per cent to 28 per cent, which is little changed on where the provisional result published on Friday night had it (53 per cent to 30 per cent), or when Newspoll last posed the question a month ago (52 per cent to 30 per cent).
This reminds me of the good old days. One interpretation of one figure becomes the dominant meme, and everything else gets explained away.
Can’t wait for the press to launch into this during the week: “You Wanted Rudd, You Expected Rudd and the ALP Let You Down”. Of course, what won’t be mentioned is that Rudd never had a chance from the start, and that you can’t run a party when over 2/3 of them don’t want you to.
[afterr u left 37 messages, I think she was a tad justified in ringing u and teeling u to stop whinging]
Not guilty! She said that Gillard would only win because of “the union bosses”.
[Yes, but I think EVENTUALLY, by about August they will come to their senses and elect Rudd as leader.]
Hold that thought and wait a couple of days to see what the the paper reports and the responses from the general public. I don’t think Rudd will challenge again if he loses, it’s more about whether or not Gillard will improve enough with the public to win the next election.
[ Would anyone care to comment on Julia Gillard’s 26 per cent approval rating? ]
Only when you pick the colour of the Rudd kneck sweat band
BW
[I feel betrayed by the MSM. I feel betrayed by the political class. I feel betrayed by the business class.]
I don’t. I never expected anything more from them.
The best way to avoid disappointment is to lower your expectations.
[Can’t wait for the press to launch into this during the week: “You Wanted Rudd, You Expected Rudd and the ALP Let You Down”. Of course, what won’t be mentioned is that Rudd never had a chance from the start, and that you can’t run a party when over 2/3 of them don’t want you to.]
Bingo. What will be interesting will be seeing if Rudd decides to play along with the ‘RUDD THE PEOPLE’S CHAMPION WAS ROBBED’ theory.
[Actually all it does is tell us you were too afraid to raise the topic.
You were out with another couple.
How many couples are there in Perth
Or WA
So out of two couples in the whole of WA
One couple supported Rudd’
And one-half of another couple supported Rudd.
Sorry, that does not translate to 75% support for Rudd.]
I didn’t mean it that way. The only Gillard support I’ve heard of other than those on PB are my parents. A lot of people I’ve come across within the last week (i.e. the party or on facebook) are really showing their support for Rudd. If they want to support Rudd, that’s their choice.
[75
William Bowe
Would anyone care to comment on Julia Gillard’s 26 per cent approval rating?]
By all means, William. I think Gillard’s leadership has been impaired by several related pressures – her lack of numbers in the Parliament; Rudd has been stalking her, but has not been able to be reprimanded by Gillard, constantly recalling the manner in which she became PM in first place; her inability to ward off Rudd’s gambit has accentuated her political vulnerability.
Because she lacks the freedom of action and purpose that we usually associate with leadership, she comes across as a figure that is inhibited, defensive and compromised. Everything she has said or done has been refracted through this lens.
As well, I think her “public-speech” has deteriorated. She is repetitious, ponderous, narrow – even confined – in both her manner and content. She is a politician trying to stay out of trouble, the more so because she obviously has a talent for walking into trouble without any outside help.
Beyond this, the public really need to know that the country is not only in “safe hands”, but that there will be resilience, self-assurance and stability. Gillard’s vulnerability generates images and resonances that run counter to this. All in all, the public have probably made up their mind about her, and -whether fairly or not – would consider someone other than either Gillard or Rudd.
Great speech by Albo. I must say I liked this bit of levity
[ANTHONY ALBANESE: I’m trying to think. I’ve been through a few, a few too many, but I don’t have a great record of backing winning candidates. So, if you go back and look at who’s been defeated, chances are I voted for them.]
If Gillard believes a reconciliation is required she should encourage Albo to stand for DPM. Swan has a big enough workload as Treasurer anyway.
Got to love Albo’s passionate and courageous loyalty!
It is hard to see any normal, cyclic situation that might improve this dire trend. In truth, the australian people did not endorse this government for a second term, the GG did. As much as revisionists here want to dispute that.
All this does is dig in resentment from those who voted Kev, protested Julia and still didn’t get their expected change of government. Add to that backflips, lies, abuse of trust, dud policy, stuff ups and now this. Voters will hate The ALP because of Julia and this will not go away soon..
Watching that Newspoll Video, I think all the stats Ghost has posted have come from that. He’s found videos before & used then for early results of polls before. I think he’s found it posted on YouTube early and tweeted around what the CEO says. It’s The Australian’s video that usually goes with the site, but is also seperately posted on YouTube.
I don’t think the PM’s dissaproval ratings are being “held back”, the guy just doesn’t mention them in his video summary. Even the PM’s approval rating have to be inferred from the previous result (listen carefully).
There may not be any Rudd vs Gillard questions. That may be why they rushed through a small one earlier this week. Listen to what he says at the end re preferred PM… 36 Gillard, 38 Abbott, 26 undecided (he suggests but doesn’t know if undecided represents Rudd preferred).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOvYe1szrsQ
Finns posted earlier
[Our final count of the publicly declared support: PM Gillard 61 Rudd 19 with 22 Known Unknown.].
If there are 22 unknown at this late stage, with Gillard set to romp it in, then there are 22 more Rudd supporters.
Why else hold off on declaring your hand?
My view is that unknowns are very likely Rudd supporters.
My guess is Rudd 22 + 19 = 41.
In regards to Abbott’s rating, I’m pro Gillard but felt really good when Rudd attacked Abbott on Friday.
I haven’t heard someone cut through like that against Abbott in a very long time
Georgeous Dunny
[Got to love Albo’s passionate and courageous loyalty!]
He is voting the “wrong” way but my admiration for him is undiminished. Well done the PM to not accept his resignation.
Bonita,
Rudd won’t NEED to challenge again because Gillard will resign. There will be another leadership ballot, most likely Smith V Rudd, which Rudd will win. by about 60 to 43.
Your best post in a while DavidWH 🙂
[Intrepid Geek @geeksrulz
Shock Newspoll Analysis: This 53-47 result is the same result as the 53-47 4 weeks ago. #auspol #respill
9:17 PM – 26 Feb 12]
Mr Squiggle
[My guess is Rudd 22 + 19 = 41.]
Crikey, less than centaur009 picked !
One reason Gillard’s favouribility ratings are poor is because some people don’t understand why or how she knifed Rudd.
Well, after tomorrow there will be another group that won’t understand why Labor had a leadership ballot without letting Rudd win.
So I expect Labor’s poll numbers to decrease further.
Good poll for Labor but bad for Gillard
____________________
I’s pretty clear ..the voters don’y ilke Gillard
so what to do ???
They don’t like Abbott much either
…and we know about Kevin
so who comes nexr??????????????
(What’s Latham doing these days ?}
[ I have had occasion on this site to mock those ….]
William I reckon David @163 has a right of reply
How did DavidWH make a textless post?
Guess what I put in to Poroti- 41
Apple Blossom.
If I read it right, you were out in company but were afraid to express your opinion because the boyfriend would give you grief for doing so when you got home. Hmmmm.
Well there is a whole heap of discussion that can be had around that scenario. We could go on for weeks.
Why don’t I just cut to the chase instead and give you my considered opinion? Dump the boyfriend, you deserve better.
DavidWH when you said you weren’t going comment on polls again I thought you were joking but your new policy is working a treat.
The low Labor primary vote is the only reason I can see why so many commentators believe that Labor cannot win with Gillard as PM. The 2PP is not unusually bad this far out from an election (even ignoring the last week and going with more normal-time polls of around 54/46). Labor “can’t win” with a primary vote in the 30s, Fran on RN Breakfast keeps telling us. It’s as though the 2PP is dismissed as wrong or untrustworthy. The 2PP involves an additional assumption, and so another source of error, but I don’t see why it should be less trusted than it is when primary votes are higher.
[Mr Squiggle
My guess is Rudd 22 + 19 = 41.
Crikey, less than centaur009 picked !]
Humble apologies, Mr Squiggle and centaur000 are in fact as one.
I want a Lib spill by 900h tomorrow.
Incidentally, isn’t a PV of 35 about where Labor left off last time Rudd was leader? His net approval rating was what, about -14?
Shows on is on the money
I don’t see how it is a good poll for Labor with their primary on 35. They want a primary in the very high 30s to be confident of winning
[Humble apologies, Mr Squiggle and centaur000 are in fact as one.]
Make that centaur009
ShowsOn –
But the slightly perplexing thing about the entire situation is that this could/would have been the outcome without the Kevn Rudd dummy spit/internecine warfare etc etc.
If Kevin Rudd knew he never had a chance of challenging now, what was the point of it all?
On the other hand, the practical outcome has been to shake up the political status quo, deprive the LNP of oxygen for a week or so, allow for some Abbott bashing along the way and …
Who knows, maybe this exercise hasn’t been such a waste/disaster after all.
Strange times.
shows
u want a lot,doncha?
Its clear.
The people want Kevin as PM and thought they were going to get it. Tomorrow Labor are going to vote in Ms 26% lol.
Come on Libs, a nice spill at 0900h to turnbull or pyne even.
[Posted Sunday, February 26, 2012 at 9:11 pm | Permalink
I find Abbott’s slump harder to explain. He usually does well when the spotlight’s elsewhere.]
I think the question of leadership is very naturally in people’s mind and they are likely to be asking what it is they really want and expect in a leader. It is no surprise at all that TA is recording poor stats. In his own way, TA has shown that while he is a capable pugilist, he is not a leader. Put another way, he may be a sharp critic, but he is obviously not a composer: he has no vision and no ability to articulate one. People need more than reflexive antagonism: they want positive strength of purpose and they have seen none of it from TA.
I don’t see that one. Newspoll on Jan 29 was 54-46. There was a Neilsen 53-47 on Feb 2.
centaur009
[Shows on is on the money]
Totally.” How did DavidWH make a textless post”?
VexNews reports that Smith will go to Foreign Affairs, not Crean as earlier speculated.
Who will get defence?
Apple Blossom.
I think i’ll leave it up to to choose your boyfriend and when and why you should engage in political arguments.
Maybe I’m not suited to this blogging thing.
rummel, just to be clear – you are an actual Coalition supporter and not a parody poster?
Then please explain your request for Opposition Leader Pyne? 🙂
Hey Centaur009 – Snap !!!
[I don’t see how it is a good poll for Labor with their primary on 35. They want a primary in the very high 30s to be confident of winning]
A good poll because the primary vote is rising. surely this is the highest primary vote for sometime. with tax cuts on the way mid year it will be interesting to see where it is headed despite the ongoing negative rating for gillard.
I find the whole concept of Kevin coming back as a realistic government retaining option so unlikely I can’t believe ALP people would support it.
Firstly, if he became PM, we could lose govt in a week, either a change over or a forced early election. We ALL know this is possible, yet the idea of changing PM is kicked around by those in favour as if that’s not a real dangerous possibility.
Secondly, there is no way a Rudd govt would hold together internally, or that his popularity would last, or that the media would not rip into him and actively work to bring him down. He has not changed, and he will not stay loved. The whole idea of him restoring the govts polling (it’s about little else) is a phantom.
If Rudd was restorted, and either of those things happened, then we really will be talking about the ALP being destroyed, not just at the ballot box, but as a party.
poroti, I hope you got my 28 for Rudd cause I just don’t want him to have any more. Feeling very angry with his behaviour towards the party. I’m quite across the Labor Party not being for the fainthearted, but am very cross with his behaviour.
was always going to be a two pronged attack…and of course play your strength your popularity. The public will heckle her…she is history.
I’m speechless steve
Nothing on ABC Breaking News About NewsPoll..
[The low Labor primary vote is the only reason I can see why so many commentators believe that Labor cannot win with Gillard as PM. ]
Rudd didn’t challenge! Gillard called a spill.