Very much obviously remains to be said about the Queensland state election result, and rest assured that it soon will be. In the meantime, here’s a table which breaks down the damage region by region.
| VOTES | SEATS | |||||||
| ALP | LNP | GRN | KAP | ALP | LNP | IND | KAP | |
| Northern Brisbane | 31.7% | 51.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 0 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| -16.1% | 13.8% | -1.0% | -10 | +10 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Southern Brisbane | 33.8% | 49.4% | 7.7% | 5.0% | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 |
| -18.5% | 13.7% | -0.6% | -12 | +12 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Inner Brisbane | 30.7% | 52.5% | 13.6% | 2.6% | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| -9.5% | 12.8% | -1.7% | -5 | +5 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Ipswich | 33.6% | 38.5% | 5.4% | 14.1% | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| -24.8% | 8.2% | -1.9% | -2 | +2 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Gold Coast | 23.4% | 58.3% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
| -17.8% | 12.7% | -0.2% | -4 | +4 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Sunshine Coast | 16.1% | 57.9% | 11.3% | 6.6% | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 |
| -12.8% | 8.6% | 1.2% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Urban Hinterland | 19.1% | 51.0% | 7.4% | 18.7% | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| -14.0% | 5.6% | -0.4% | -1 | +2 | -1 | 0 | ||
| Central Coastal | 25.3% | 41.3% | 4.2% | 16.9% | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 |
| -17.4% | 2.4% | -1.4% | -2 | +3 | -1 | 0 | ||
| Northern Coastal | 26.4% | 40.9% | 5.1% | 25.4% | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| -17.8% | -1.1% | -2.7% | -5 | +5 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Interior | 15.7% | 50.7% | 3.3% | 26.9% | 0 | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| -10.8% | -1.2% | -0.2% | -1 | -1 | 0 | +2 | ||
| Top End | 33.3% | 37.7% | 5.1% | 21.8% | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| -13.5% | -4.3% | -1.2% | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | ||
| TOTAL | 26.8% | 49.5% | 7.4% | 11.6% | 8 | 77 | 2 | 2 |
| -15.9% | 8.4% | -0.6% | -43 | +43 | -2 | +2 | ||
Once again, going where angels fear to tread – an outsider commenting on Queensland politics, LO, in one of his more balanced items in the Murdoch rags today, rubbished any connection between State and Federal issues.
He pointed out that there was not a federal issue in sight in the whole campaign, and thus those who start looking at where state and federal election boundaries cross, and by deduction, start saying this is the beginning of the end for Labor, are on shaky ground.
Apart from the fact that exit polls – for as much as they are worth, did not get down to a federal issue until about No 3/4 which I think was the carbon tax and then the mining tax, those conservatives who draw comfort from such a comparison are on shaky ground.
Quite often thumping wins by one side of politics or the other at state then federal level, or vice versa, just have not automatically translated into wins next time around.
More importantly, the issues are so different and despite the way things might look in Queensland looking south, there is not in the southern states – where most of the seats are to be found, the “it’s time” factor just yet.
Most importantly, Abbott is neither trusted or liked by the electorate and so he is not just some kind of Bob Hawke, the people’s choice waiting to come into power.
However, we must not deny the conservatives their moment of pleasure as the reality of office will bite them soon enough.
Mick Collins
Voting for the libs “because they manage the economy well” is always a triumph of hope over experience.
[I made calls here over a year ago saying they needed to be booted. ]
I’ve said pretty much the same thing about Bruce Hawker (don’t know the other guy). It’s time to let him go.
if cost of living was a major reason for the change of government, one wonders what Can Do can do about it…
If service delivery was a major reason for the change of government, and the punters don’t want miners or polluters to pay more tax, one wonders what anyone can do about it….
But to expect rationality in politics is itself probably irrational
ltep
Thanks for that!
[He pointed out that there was not a federal issue in sight in the whole campaign, and thus those who start looking at where state and federal election boundaries cross, and by deduction, start saying this is the beginning of the end for Labor, are on shaky ground.]
Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail said the same thing to Fran Kelly last week when she put Abbott’s line to him about the Qld election being a referendum on the carbon price.
He said the carbon price only came up twice in the campaign – both occasions raised by Abbott when he was up there.
MTBW I will be disappointed if Labor isn’t afforded party status. Beattie made a similar concession to the Libs in 2001. It’s not a time to be petty.
l
Yep. I thought that Insiders this morning was a good discussion session.
DavidWH
According to ltep above they are fine.
carbon tax was rated by 44% in the Newspoll exit vote.
That’s a federal issue.
[MTBW
Posted Sunday, March 25, 2012 at 9:22 am | Permalink
Well what does Labor do now? Discuss!]
For Federal labor, it’s a plus. Queensland have vented their spleen. Probable a few have woken up and thought, what have we done, too far.
There is one big lesson though, when the election comes around don’t focus on Abbott, those that think he is an idiot will continue to think so, those that don’t have already been presented with enough evidence, nothing is going to change their minds, just going to waste air time and kill the message, Labor is a competent government that has delivered real reform.
Focus on the successes. Of which there has been many.
And……..still on Queensland – In WA, the election for Queensland might as well have been in Outer Mongolia for most West Aussies.
The local Sunday Times has a very small article and the usual Oakes by-line is there. No doubt the West tomorrow will try to draw some issues out for federal politics and for WA.
We in WA only have 3 Labor HoR politicians out of 15 seats Federally, so to all intents and purposes, with a State Liberal/Nationals coalition in power (though not without risk to them) we are have been where Queensland is now, for some time!
Of course, all State problems have been fixed, and where not, the Feds get the blame – that it until the State wants some money for this or that project such as sinking the railway like or a new footy ground,
DavidWH, it’s not a matter of choice. The requirements for recognition as a political party are set out in the Parliament of Queensland Act.
Was Rudd conspicuously helping the campaign after the leadership spill?
I didn’t see any Queensland election stuff down here in Adelaide and wonder whether he was out and about openly or whether it was more low key.
Taking a look at the swings in the seats within Griffith, I’d be a bit worried about the next Federal election if I were him, especially if he did take a high profile role.
An 18.5% swing would well and truly wipe him out as well.
Boerwar
Don’t know if you’ve seen this. Nothing new, but …
[Guardian Environment @guardianeco
The seas lie empty http://gu.com/p/36akk/tf%5D
What are the implications of not getting official party status?
Danny, Rudd was out and about openly. I really don’t think Qld Labor have anyone to blame but themselves for this result. The decision to burn off any personal good will Bligh might’ve built up over the floods by having her run hard with a negative campaign is a bit perplexing to me.
http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/political-news/beattie-to-gillard-buy-a-house-in–queensland-20120325-1vrzr.html
Peter Beattie should stop providing fodder to the press.
Diogenes, it would be relevant to remuneration, resourcing and staffing I would imagine.
DL:
I didn’t see many tweets from Rudd from the campaign, nor were there m/any images in the online news about him campaigning, so my assumption (because I don’t live in Qld) is that his campaigning was more low key.
Great coverage last night. Thanks William.
The east coast (QLD NSW) is now 145+ conservative 25+ ALP with a handful of conservative independents and others.
Graham perret and Craig emerson, the lib qld senator and brough were good to hear but kroger was his usual man working off an insult knob.
Boerwar: yes, I actually think people mentioning federal issues in exit polls is a good thing.
It means that for those wanting to vent their spleens on these issues, they have now done it. For federal Labor in 2013 there might be half a chance to win these people back on other issues (or by them realising it wasn’t as bad as they thought it was).
This comment was brought to you by Wishful Thinking Enterprises, a wholly owned subsidiary of Fingers Crossed Pty Ltd 😆
[What are the implications of not getting official party status?]
Loss of staff and other support which is afforded to parties, I believe.
Did anyone hear Barnaby’s comments on the election? Don’t know which channel.
(Just for the laugh)
Got to get it out of the system – showing my ignorance I guess, but there has to be some kind of formal “opposition” for our so-called Westminster system to work.
If Labor is not given formal “opposition” status, there can be no formal position of LOTO and hence at a whole host of functions and activities a good slab the electorate – and we must not forget that just because the conservatives got just on 60% of the vote, again, nearly 40% of the electorate did not vote for them – will essentially be ignored.
I am lumping Katter’s mob in with the 60%.
On top of this, did I not read that some 13% of the electorate did not vote last time?
Whats Gillards response going to be to the QLD election? More head in the sand antics is my guess and ignoring the voters yet again
GeeWizz@126
What do you think JG should say, and just how has she “got her head in the sand”?
Easy to say, put some meat on your comment.
You must be one of the gloating conservatives?
[GeeWizz
Posted Sunday, March 25, 2012 at 11:47 am | Permalink
Whats Gillards response going to be to the QLD election? More head in the sand antics is my guess and ignoring the voters yet again]
I curious, just what would you like Gillard to do. More middle class welfare, back down on carbon trading, let the dutch disease destroy the Australian economy. Just what is your “ignoring the voters yet again”.
[“What do you think JG should say, and just how has she “got her head in the sand”?”]
I think she should come out on National TV and say she has heard the message from QLD’ers loud and clear and that the ALP will be making new policy announcements that will be based on listening to the electorate.
At the moment this government just does not listen to the voters and that makes Federal Labor TOXIC
LTEP: I don’t get negative advertising.
You might as well unfurl the white flag and admit you think you aren’t going to win and in any case don’t think you have anything positive going for you.
The best political strategists will always be able to make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear; in fact, some of the best campaigns have been run when the incumbent has its back to the wall.
PS What has happened to the great Labor campaigners? Where is the spark? Where is the creativity? Where is the passion? There are too many second-raters around at the moment and it does not augur well for the future of the party, IMHO.
[What are the implications of not getting official party status?]
this is an interesting question.
Without party status for the ALP, how do you have ‘an opposition’? Does the concept of a shadow minister go away? I bet there would be no such thing as a leadership pay packet either.
The Australian Electoral commission would still confer party status, so the question must be a parliamentary question, not an electoral question
l
You don’t know whether to laugh or to cry.
CSIRO has found a way of cutting through trophic levels by developing, I think, soya beans which provide edible protein for fish. This sort of stuff has the potential to make a huge difference.
Party status would bring with it more money and more staffers, I would imagine.
How many seats will Labor end up with?
It will be interesting watching Qld voters discover the LNP has no more power than the Labor gumint to do anything but SFA about “the cost of living”.
Meanwhile Brett Lee will be pleased with the result. His band should see a surge in popularity north of the Tweed.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwXM_IHiKHQ
[GeeWizz
Posted Sunday, March 25, 2012 at 11:53 am | Permalink
I think she should come out on National TV and say she has heard the message from QLD’ers loud and clear and that the ALP will be making new policy announcements that will be based on listening to the electorate]
Ya, lets have a repeat of Rudd’s stuff up on the pink bats where he came out and apologized for a scheme that actually went quite well.
I am not surprised Peter Garrett’s refused to work in any future Rudd government.
Being 4% behind in the polls is not toxic, it has happened before and the party behind has recovered.
As a Queenslander not a good day today.
However, what goes around comes around. Time for the libs et al to gloat and so be it.
Interesting about the exit polls. The questions asked about issues especially.
I would be interested to know if the various issues were put to people and they were asked to rate their importance or if people asked raised the issues themselves.
It seems to me to be the former so I do not know if that would have any bearing on the breakdowns.
Would ” what are the most important issues to you ? ” result in different answers to “How do you rate these 4 – 5 issues in importance ? ”
Perhaps I am just being pedantic but the reason I ask is at no time during the campaign were the carbon pricing and MRRT issues raised by anyone.
C’mon I’m not kidding, I just walked in the door, was out all night and have no idea with what happened in the election.
The bad news is the Cows got beat 😐
Boerwar @132
Sounds interesting.
There’s always a catch22 as solutions carry their own problems. And regulations intended to protect often work the opposite way.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/new-food-laws-may-put-exotic-meat-on-the-buffalo-bill-20120324-1vr44.html
[In particular, farmers are expected to call for an end to the requirement for bovine animals such as bison and buffalo to be killed in an abattoir.
Victorian bison farmer John Perry said forcing a temperamental, 1200-kilogram beast on to a truck was onerous enough but the stress of transportation on bison was also more severe than on cattle.
”Transporting these animals for slaughter is not ideal, from a commercial or a welfare point of view,” he said.
”Instead, we should be allowed to shoot them humanely in the field and use a mobile abattoir to process them for sale.”]
[Kangaroo was legalised for human consumption in Victoria in 1993 but it remains illegal to commercially harvest kangaroos.
So while Victorian farmers with culling permits can shoot as many as 30,000 kangaroos a year, they are banned from selling the meat.
”They’re currently killing kangaroos and just putting them in a pit, which is crazy given the demand for the meat,” said Nash Cowie, of Wangara Poultry and Game in Kensington.]
Centre:
At the top of this page is William’s breakdown of votes and seats.
Doyley:
The Sky exit polls weren’t open, the issues that were put to voters were chosen by the pollster.
WHAT 8 seats, holy shit 😆
I gotta go out again 😛
Boerwar
[CSIRO has found a way of cutting through trophic levels by developing, I think, soya beans which provide edible protein for fish. This sort of stuff has the potential to make a huge difference.]
It is not so much the protein as the fatty acid composition of the fats and oils. Most importantly the omega ones.Pretty much all the good stuff moves up the food chain from algae.A shortage of shorter chain ones is way bad for survival of young fish and a shortage of longer chain ones makes for tasteless fish.CSIRO’s original plan was to be able to supply a source of healthy omega oils from land based crops rather than having to source them from marine sources.
confessions @141,
Thanks for that.
Just an opinion but it would seem to me to be a bit of prodding there to get the Carbon pricing and MRRT in the mix.
I wouldn’t read too much into the exit polls. This was very much an “it’s time” election. Like NSW, the ALP should have been defeated one or two elections ago but weren’t due to an incompetent opposition. Once the mob have someone to vote for, they rise up in numbers. Ask them why though and you’ll get nebulous stuff like “cost of living” etc. Carbon tax and mining tax only poll strongly as people have heard of them and they are on the list of reasons provided to them.
Just watching Palmer at the LNP celebration on The Insiders. Good luck and strap yourself in Queenslanders. He looks very happy about his LNP investment.
[The Sky exit polls weren’t open, the issues that were put to voters were chosen by the pollster.]
Is that a fact?
In which case, it makes it even more disingenuous for the Coalition and their spruikers to claim this was some sort of mandate on Federal issues.
Which, of course, begs the question: If the LNP was so confident that the Federal government and their issues are really on the nose with the electorate, does anyone think even for a second they would not have tried to take advantage of that?
A state issue here; a federal issue there. Nicely muddled up together so people are reminded of how awful Labor is generally. I think it’s actually telling that the only person talking about federal issues was Tony Abbott – but was anyone really listening?
Weasel words Geewhiz@129
Just what are these policy changes she should make?
What is the “message” do you think the Queensland electorate has sent?
If you are suggesting these are what Tony Abbott wants, then I am wasting time with you as JG is not a tory.
Instead of hiding behind slogans, just come out, and tell us how Labor should change direction to win Labor voters back.
Some of us here have been mulling the issue for months here, so your input would be of assistance to us.
By the way, can’t speak for your perception of Labor in Queensland, but last look at opinion polls, suggest that Labor is not so far from 50-50 with the conservatives and far from being toxic, it is the conservatives who have most to fear from Labor at the moment.
[Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
Reply
Retweeted
Favorite
· Open
Interesting context – Qld State election primary vote results since 1998 http://yfrog.com/oebamkp
]
[113 ltep
Posted Sunday, March 25, 2012 at 11:40 am | Permalink
DavidWH, it’s not a matter of choice. The requirements for recognition as a political party are set out in the Parliament of Queensland Act.]
And are met in this case.