Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition

The latest monthly Nielsen result backs up Newspoll’s 57-43 result from last week, out from 53-47 when Nielsen last polled in the days preceding the leadership challenge. At 27% for Labor (down a dizzying seven points on the previous poll) and 47% for the Coalition (up three), the primary vote results are likewise all but identical to Newspoll’s (28% and 47%). Tony Abbott has widened his preferred prime minister lead from 47-46 to 48-44, while Joe Hockey is found to lead Wayne Swan 45-43 as preferred treasurer. The results of this poll support Newspoll and to a lesser extent Morgan in showing a further blowout in the Coalition lead in the wake of the leadership challenge: the only holdout so far as Essential Research, which shall as usual report tomorrow.

UPDATE: Full tables from GhostWhoVotes. Nielsen also shows Julia Gillard’s approval rating unchanged last time at 36 per cent approval (steady) and 59 per cent disapproval (down one) – a substantially higher approval rating than from Newspoll, though this is partly as a result of the unusual fact that Nielsen produces lower undecided ratings on these questions. Tony Abbott is respectively down two to a new low of 39 per cent and steady on 56 per cent. Also:

• State breakdowns suggest an upheaval of biblical dimensions has driven the northern and southern states apart: compared with last month’s two-party preferred figures, Labor is down ten points in Queensland and eight in New South Wales (and by five points in Western Australia besides), but is up by four in both Victoria (where Labor holds a 51-49 lead) and South Australia. This is a correction – probably an over-correction – from the previous result in which Labor occupied a narrow band from 44 per cent and 49 per cent across the five states, implausibly scoring weaker in Victoria than New South Wales and South Australia than Queensland. It should be remembered that all of these state sub-samples are modest, and that the margin of error approaches double figures in the smaller states.

• There are also some diverting results from the gender and city/rural breakdowns, which being binary offer bigger samples and margins of error of about 3.5 per cent. The gender gap, as measured by the differential in the two major parties’ net primary votes, has blown out from one point to 12. Labor is down nine points on the primary vote among men to 24 per cent, and the Coalition is up six to 50 per cent.

• Labor is also down nine points, and the Coalition up seven, among rural voters.

• The government’s policy (I’m not sure if it was identified to respondents as such) of using the mining tax to fund a 1% cut to company tax is supported by 53% and opposed by 33%.

• Only 5% per cent believe they will be better off with the carbon price and its attendant compensation, against 52% who believe they will be worse off.

• Support for the carbon tax is at 36% against 60% opposed, which is respectively down one and up one since Nielsen last posed the question in October.

• The Coalition is favoured to handle the economy by 57% against 36% for Labor.

UPDATE 2: Essential Research reports that after Labor’s recovery from 56-44 to 54-46 last week, the Coalition has gained a point to lead 55-45. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up a point to 48 per cent and Labor down one to 33 per cent. A semi-regular question on leaders’ attributes finds views of Julia Gillard have soured further since June last year, by double figures in the case of “intelligent” and “hard-working”, with Tony Abbott also going backwards by lesser degree (Gillard is rated slightly more intelligent and Abbott slightly more hard working, and Gillard is 11% higher on “out of touch with ordinary people”). There are also questions on the proposed increase in superannuation payments from 9% to 12% (69% supporting and 13% opposed, perfectly unchanged since May last year), size and role of government (44% believe it presently too large against 28% too small, but 67% maintain government has a role to “protect ordniary Australians from unfair policies and practices on the part of large financial and/or industrial groups” against 20% who sign on for a laissez-faire view of the role of the state) and the appopriate responses for police when faced with various situations. On the latter count, 10% of respondents believe persons under the influence of alcohol should be shot.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

4,167 comments on “Nielsen: 57-43 to Coalition”

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  1. Aaborg, Danmar

    Taler du Dansk?

    If you are not too far away you might want to climb Møllehøj, at 170.86 metres , the tallest peak n Denmark.

  3. Smithe

    Been Labor for 50 years.

    Call me a pessimist if you like but I do not see that being unrealistic is a virtue.

    Ask Anthony Green about the Senate on Qld state results

    If Labor gets say 25% of the PV, Greens 13%, Katter 14%, LNP 40% and 8% assorted others, Labor could well get just one in Qld.
    Assuming that the Senate vote is always about 3% less than the HR, Labor needs to get at least 30% PV to be sure of two Senators ie a while 27% is just short of 2 quotas they would likely pick up enough leakage and second preference to get over the line. Fall much below and it is an issue. Especially given the strong KAP showing – 12% or more I think

  4. Smiths

    My right wing mate doubles his house payments then complains about cost of living expenses and he earns in excess of $115k . Its this bloody aspirational depression that we seem to be afflicted with.

  5. smithe,

    Interesting, isn’t it?

    If I want to be an “influence” I would join an organisation that would best promote that interest.

    What I would contribute to that organization would best promote my interest

    Would that money be in proportionate influence to someone else’s dollar?

  6. TLBD

    [Taler du Dansk?

    If you are not too far away you might want to climb Møllehøj, at 170.86 metres , the tallest peak n Denmark.]

    Will be driving past Møllehøj tomorrow and we shouldn’t miss it as the country is dead flat, I suggested the climb to my wife but she is pretended to be deaf.

  7. [Its this bloody aspirational depression that we seem to be afflicted with.]

    The Howard hangover.

    Berocca time, I think

  8. [ This little black duck
    Posted Monday, April 2, 2012 at 2:45 am | Permalink
    smithe,

    Interesting, isn’t it?

    If I want to be an “influence” I would join an organisation that would best promote that interest.]

    Well, you’d think so.

    But al DTT does is whinge-on about how the Alp has let her down. Clearly it doesn’t “best promote” her interests, which seem to be (in order) Kevin Rudd and Asylum Seekers.

    As for her friends doing it tough, they must all be on welfare or living under bridges or something to be that desperate during such times as these.

    Sure, we’ve got a distorted two-speed economy because of the Mining boom, but it ain’t Brother Can You Sparea Dime Time anywhere that I can see and the MRRT is to some extent designed to iron this distortion out.

    Plus there’s this Union thing.

    Very unhealthy.

  9. Another thing is that there is a whole generation of voters who haven’t had much exposure to conservative govts. Sure Howie was there 4 1/2 yrs ago but at a state level Labor has been in power for nearly 2 decades. Let the ungrateful sods cop a dose of Liberal party rationalization for a while then see how they like it

  10. I thonk this is at the heart of poor results for the ALP, and has been all along since early 2011. The QLD State result and all the surrounding has made the ALP look bad, hence the extra drop. If we get to late 2012 and the carbon package turns out to be good for a lot of people (as it will be), we can see things improve.

    http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/half-of-voters-expect-to-lose-out-under-carbon-price-20120401-1w6lr.html

    [Half of voters expect to lose out under carbon price
    April 2, 2012

    MORE than one in two voters – including three in 10 Labor supporters – believe they will be worse off under the carbon price and compensation package, despite government assurances that a majority of households will not lose out and many will come out in front.

    The Age/Nielsen poll found 52 per cent (down a point since July last year) predicted they would be worse off, 5 per cent (down a point) said they would be better off and 39 per cent (up 2 points) believed it would make no difference to them.]

  11. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    The most interesting details from William’s breakdown of the Nielsen poll is the quite severe divide that is occurring. Am I being a tad presumptuous in positing that the support for the Coalition is based in the areas that can be best described as either loopy (banjo territory), selfish (mining states), shallow/ignorant (much of Sydney) or ungrateful (pensioners)?
    Is it a triumph for Tea Party politics?

    Mike Carleton nails it with Barnaby. Truly scary! (Refer my comments above).
    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/barnabys-big-move–be-very-afraid-20120330-1w3b8.html

  17. Financial Review Editor responds to News Ltd

    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/no_agenda_but_the_news_gv92wGp7JZqMnlmEe0TLEJ

    [No agenda but the news
    PUBLISHED: 6 hours 0 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 0 hour 16 MINUTES AGO

    Michael Stutchbury
    The Weekend Australian’s trademark elbows-out reaction to this newspaper’s pay TV piracy claims involving News Corporation’s former subsidiary NDS focused almost exclusively on questioning the motives behind the stories and how they came to be published. It was highly personalised around me as editor-in- chief of The Australian Financial Review.]

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/pressure_builds_for_news_pay_tv_Mhh58sprMtceqAfOYnG30N
    [Pressure builds for News’ pay TV disclosure]

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/labor_support_slumps_to_the_pits_IxOrgECII3qphYdK4pv6SN
    [Labor support slumps to the pits]

  18. OK WILLIAM AS A PERSON OF POLLING!

    MY ONLY COMMENT IS! can u find out which area of ausr. This poll was done, in what state what seats, ‘i think thisis a reasonable question to any pollister, for as,long as this ‘lot have been polling i have never heard of them here.

    Until such times as we know this , its hard to put a handle on it, eg if most was done i qld,
    And half in nsw.”what else would you expect. I am sure or it will take is a phone call from you
    Otherwise.

  19. The latest Nielsen poll although is bad for Labor as it still carries the turbulence of #Leadershit & QLD election

  20. Have a happy Easter Mr Cameron. The poms have woke to what shonks the tories are. Wake up Australia.

    [David Cameron goes into Easter after one of the most difficult periods of his premiership, with the Sunday press likely to make grim reading for the Prime Minister.

    The lastest polls confirm that the Tories have lost large swathes of public support over the past fortnight, the party is trailing Labour by nine points in the lastest poll conducted by ComRes.

    The same poll suggests the public overwhelmingly find the Tories “out of touch”, and they also largely reject the so-called “pasty tax” along with the freezing of the personal allowance for the over-65s, widely dubbed the “granny tax”.]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2012/04/01/david-cameron-polls-granny-pasty-tax-fuel-shortages-panic-buying_n_1394401.html?ref=uk

  21. Forget it, this lot last time where qute favourable whats changed only qld, if u phone one of them they are harfly at this stage hoing to say any thing else, they would feel like hypocrits,
    As i have no intention of reading above, may be they have obliged and given us a break down,
    Some mo ths ago i had cal from another polster who ask me my postcode, then person ssid, no we have enough in that area, so i think its a reasonanled question, will wsit with batted brethe for your post thank youin advance otherwise , why not give polling a misd for for lets say 18 months how refreshing a blogg would that be

  22. my say

    The polls over the past two years all show that the govt is unpopular in the electorate. The govt will continue to get on with its agenda, and we can only hope that there is a shift somewhere down the track.

  24. Bk havi g read u i presume there is a break down but will this appear on tv screens NO
    This should be tweeted endlessly the media should be embarressed in to saying so, hand

    Now we demand a poll leaving out these areads,, as i said wiliam you should refuse to put polks up if they do not reflect the whole country, my god man some one has to take a stand

  25. Nielsen: Labor 2PP down 10% in QLD 8% in NSW & 5% in WA — but up 4% in Vic – PM Gillard’s best weapon, Coalition State Govts eg: Vic

  27. There won’t be a shift. We’re in denial.
    The best we can hope for is that the government gets everything done and as Abbott-proof as possible. Then prepare for returning to government some time around the early 20’s

  29. The extraordinary change in QLD probably has more to do with the Rudd factor than the QLD election. I think this is the first Nielsen since Rudd was sent to the backbench?

  30. Victoria, one knows this, but they are not unpopular here or in victoria, if u do a poll and poll here
    Or vic, or sa, why woukd one bother to publish itbmy point is if this is the case its , william should not
    Put it here if he wants to call it state polls faire emough he should then go on radio and tv
    And explain may be ari will ,
    Its sern on tv screens and media as a poll my qustion is readonable i want to know
    Which electorates where polled, eg here, that information shoul not be hard to find out,

    Lets see an exclusive pol for vic,, tas , sa, nt then we can get to the bottom of this,
    I put out a challenge to a pollister to do that. .

  34. So, but which sests, thats my point, are they alredy liberal sests, swinging seats,
    Legislation should be bought in if you are a polluster u should have to give a break down if what electorate how many people polled i each seat , what state, ect,

    Also legilation should alsay who commissioned polls who paid for polls, the poll, ect.
    Wel l iam not in parliment so i cannot,
    Perhaps will would like to stand for parliment, this should be for all sorts of polls not just political
    Even for products bought ect.

  35. Rose u are the one in deniel re the media, ‘in a balanced world where policies wherr reprted i stead of gossip like whos the next pm ect, even the abc do not give a blow by blow description of policy i remember years sgo you could pick up the paper and read about the ins and outs of a policy turn on the radio, some ond with a ver articulate voice, would tell u about the gov la ltest policy
    Then u would hear the otherside of course, but you made up your own mind, now journalists just talk to each other, we have more talking heads on tv and radio, than milking cows, in tas.

  36. my say

    The polls indicate that both Abbott and Gillard are equally unpopular in the electorate, but the coalition is preferred. To me it is quite simple. The electorate dont like the carbon tax policy. Mining tax and NBN are not the issue for the govt, but the carbon policy is. If people see after July 1 that the sky want fall, perhaps they may be a shift back to the govt.

  38. [ rosemour
    Posted Monday, April 2, 2012 at 7:20 am | Permalink
    There won’t be a shift. We’re in denial.
    The best we can hope for is that the government gets everything done and as Abbott-proof as possible. Then prepare for returning to government some time around the early 20′s]

    Oh FFS.

    This is a precise mirror image of what was being posted here about the Tories 4 years ago.

    Polls can and do turn in weeks.

    Is your memory really that damn short, rosemour?

  39. Ho hum.

    Bad result in the aftermath of a Queensland massacre – who’da thunk it?

    From Newspoll and Neilsen we can see pretty damn obviously that there has been a big Qld election effect. Qld movement is pretty easy to explain, and NSW is I suspect a lot of people remembering why they kicked Keneally to the kerb. Does anyone seriously think another 18 months under these two governments isn’t going to have a few percent experiencing buyers remorse?

    It will possibly take two months to get it back to the 54-46 level, but so what? As of today we are still 17-18 months from an election. i.e 18 months since the present parliament first sat and 10 months since they finally got a senate that the government could really work with. Time is on the Government’s side not Abbott’s.

    Certainly not the time to slitting wrists. Definitely a good time to be coming out and proudly stating why you support a government that has achieved an almost incomprehensibly broad reform agenda against the most rabid opposition and in record time.

  40. smithe

    Some think that by changing leader, all the issues will be solved. Point is that the polls consistenly show that both leaders are neck and neck in the unpopularity stakes, but that the coalition is the preferred party. I am still hopeful that after the budget is implemented and the carbon price has been in effect for a while, people may change their position on the govt

  41. As for QLD throwing a tantie 10% swing, I always thought the place was Alabama in disguise.

    This just proves it.

    And can I have my flood levy back you inbred retards?

  42. I’m sitting hear gobsmacked at DTT’s post above, where she claimed that her son went from being on the verge of joining the Labor Party to being a rusted-on Liberal voter just because Wayne Swan said something nasty about Kevin Rudd.

    Sheesh.

    I note also she didn’t go on to indicate what she has said to dissuade him from such a ridiculous course of action. That speaks volumes, I think.

    Maybe Kevin Rudd should do a Katter and form his own political party and then we can all see how many Liberal-because-Labor-is-nasty-to-Kevvy voters.

    I suspect it will show that most Rudd lovers are not Rudd lovers as much as Liberal-voting Gillard haters.

  44. DL

    I take what DTT says with a grain of salt. It makes no sense whatsoever. For anyone who follows politics closely, knows that the Libs have absolutely nothing to offer for the general populace. Most people do not follow closely, but rely on soundbites. What they hear now from every orofice is that the carbon tax is bad bad bad

  46. For eg. The Herald Scum has been running stories about Jeannie Pratt stating that the carbon tax is bad and should be canned. Today they have printed letters from the public in wholesome agreement with Mrs Pratt. What hope does the govt have getting the average punter on side?

  47. [ victoria
    Posted Monday, April 2, 2012 at 7:55 am | Permalink
    smithe

    Some think that by changing leader, all the issues will be solved.]

    Well, I’ve got an idea: People who think that should grip their nose between thumb and forefinger, close their mouths and strain-down real hard.

    Once the blockage pops-out the other end, it’ll clear their minds a bit. This stupidity was tried in NSW and sunk like a stone.

    It’s not a 2-horse race between show ponies. It’s a contest of policy, ideology and vision. One side has them. The other hasn’t.

    If people can’t see that, then why follow politics at all, becaus it’s not politics they want. It’s fashion.

    They should try Celebrity Big Brother instead. It’s much more immediate, you can vote some poor slob off each week from the comfort of your lounge if you don’y like their earlobes or whatever.

  49. The leadership spill happened 4 weeks ago and Labor suffered a massive election loss a week ago. It’s only to be expected that the polls would go backwards.

    When will they get a damn break? /sigh

    Still, I’m not throwing myself off a cliff just yet. Time, and policies, are still on our side.

    Here’s a question for you guys – it’s all well and good for JG to talk about the future (and I love the Government for that) but I hope the budget contains some policies that will have a more immediate, popular effect. Maybe something about the dental scheme?

    Labor needs *something*.

    Seems being responsible and planning for the future is something this silly country doesn’t appreciate when it comes to governing.

  50. I woke to the depressing drop in the numbers, but was cheered by the states analysis. There surely must be a “Qld election” effect, and one theory I’m holding is that “the weather” is the problem in Qld.
    Floods, cyclones, etc do not jell with the “beautiful one day, perfect the next” narrative and have also had a nasty effect on Qld economy – tourism??

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