The Australian today brings us Newspoll’s regular quarterly breakdown of its federal polling by state, sex and age group. Compared with the last quarter of 2011, it finds Labor gained a point to lead 51-49 in South Australia, was steady at 50-50 in Victoria, cut the Coalition lead in New South Wales to 54-46 from 57-43 (59-41 in the July to September quarter), and took a point out of the still enormous Coalition leads in Queensland and Western Australia, which are now at 58-42 and 56-44. The Coalition’s two-party lead in the five main capitals is steady at 53-47 and down from 57-43 to 55-45 elsewhere.
Whereas last week’s Nielsen showed a dramatic widening in the gender gap between polls conducted in late February and late March, Newspoll records no such trend between its October-to-December and January-to-March surveys, which may of course conceal a very recent shift. It is interesting to note that the expectation Tony Abbott would poll badly among women was not realised in his earliest polls as Opposition Leader, but has been over time. Breaking it down by age group, the only change which skirts the roughly 3 per cent margins of error is among the 18-34s: Labor is up four points to 33 per cent, the Coalition down four points to 37 per cent and the Greens down three to 17 per cent.
Both leaders were down three on approval in New South Wales, Julia Gillard to 29 per cent and Tony Abbott to 33 per cent, but Abbott was up five in Queensland to 40 per cent. Abbott took a knock in Western Australia to be down five on approval to 31 per cent and up three on disapproval to 56 per cent. Preferred prime minister was essentially unchanged, although a shift in Gillard’s favour in South Australia – from 40-33 to 44-32 – pokes its head above the margin of error.
UPDATE: Oh yeah, Essential Research. As tends to be the case with polls these days, it’s very, very bad news for Labor, who have suffered a two-point shift away from them on two-party preferred compared with last week’s result – with the Coalition lead now at 57-43 – which is rare given that Essential publishes a two-week rolling average. The Coalition is up two points on the primary vote to 50 per cent – a new high for them so far as Essential is concerned – with Labor down two to 31 per cent and the Greens steady on 11 per cent.
Further attitudinal questions show 73 per cent believe the government should delay returning the budget to surplus if that’s what is required to maintain services and invest in infrastructure, with only 12 per cent supporting cuts to services and tax increases to restore the budget surplus. Although it may be that many respondents can instead be restored by “economic management” 28 per cent blame the present government’s lack of it for the present deficit, with 59 per cent choosing four other options available (16 per cent showing awareness of “lower tax revenues because of the Global Financial Crisis”).
On the question of Tony Abbott’s proposed childcare rebate for nannies, 44 per cent are in favour and 33 per cent opposed. Sixty-eight per cent support means testing as a general principle, while 24 per cent believe “people should receive the same subsidies and benefits regardless of income”. A “party best at” question draws the intriguingly dissonant response of a 12-point advantage to Labor on “representing the interests of Australian working families”, but a 6-point advantage to Liberal on “representing the interests of you and people like you”.
Finally, 78 per cent of respondents believe workers should get a “higher hourly rate” on weekends against only 18 per cent opposed, though how much higher exactly remains a subject for further investigation.
UPDATE (16/4): This week’s Essential Research has the Coalition’s two-party lead narrowing from 57-43 to 56-44, from primary votes of 48% for the Coalition (down two), 31% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (steady). Also featured are Essential’s monthly personal ratings, which have Julia Gillard’s approval steady at 32% and her disapproval down three to 58%, Tony Abbott’s respectively up two to 38% and down two to 50%, and Gillard’s lead as preferred prime minister shifting from 40-37 to 38-36. Support for the National Broadband Network is up a point since February to a new high of 57% with opposition down three to 22%, and 46% saying they will either definitely or probably sign up for it. There is also a question on appropriate areas for federal and state responsibility, with the states only coming out heavily on top for public transport and “investing in regional areas”.
I thought she started off well by saying it was the first time she was going to say this about a QandA question but that is a ridiculous question (as it was) but lost her way after that.
The first thing she should have asked is whether the questioner had any connection to any tobacco companies. They are infamous for planting people.
TLBD – Her Aunt was 😎
Pyne wants to reduce smoking to reduce the “impact” on the dollar. Err?
nicola hasn’t said yet that her father died of lung cancer when she was 10 and she was scholarship girl at MLC
With the ratings of Q&A, Nicola should let rip.
It’s all money to people like Pyne – Get rid of universal health care …
Anyone notice Pyne talking up “the Coalition’s ability to work with the Government on some issues”.
That’s the second time he’s said it in a week (also on radio in Adelaide) and Hockey said it last week briefly when talking about military spending.
The “No No No” lines must be coming through very negatively in their focus groups/internal polling.
The Q&A audience should be told to sit on their hands. I want a Q&A without an audience.
This little black duck
Q&A without an audience is already on TV. It’s called Sky News.
I think the impact of Labor’s attacks on Tony Abbott have done their work on his approvals but they have failed to impact on the overall 2pp.
Peopl are clearly OK about holding their nose about Abbott in order to vote a Liberal government back in (at the moment).
If I was Labor I would employ a little rhetorical trick and every time I went to criticise Abbott instead I would say “Tony Abbott’s Liberals” or the “Abbott Liberals”
The really need to strongly link the negative brand of Abbott with the Party he belongs to.
[FFS Jones. Roxon talks, and he interrupts. He’s done it 7 or 8 times, in the middle of her sentence.]
Jones has a history of doing this with women who appear on his show. He’s done it so many times, and it’s been noted here, that I’ve lost track of the number.
Yes Roy, Coote was the best lock forward, he joined the Roosters from your mob in 74 and 75. Pringle was second best to him from memory in that period.
Because Manly stole O’Neil and Branighan from the Bunnies so they could win their first premiership in 72 is no excuse not to like Manly 😈
Hey, how was this for a team?
Simms / Cleary / Branighan/ Sait / Pittard / Grant / Coote / McCarthy / Stevens / O’Neil / Walters / Piggins
I used to collect footy cards from the age of 5 😀
Poor Bunnies, they WILL never be that good again!
Nicola. You hero!! Beautifully spoken.
Why the humans are so arrogant to think there is a reason to why we are here #qanda
I only watch this very infrequently – is it just random questions, no theme, with no consequence for any one else other than the bunny Government Minister?
bluegreen – excellent. They need to talk about LIBERALS as well, not THE COALITION. Can’t count on both hands how many people I know don’t know who “the Coalition” is, only the Liberals. Plus, the Coalition sounds like a force for good…
[If I was Labor I would employ a little rhetorical trick and every time I went to criticise Abbott instead I would say “Tony Abbott’s Liberals” or the “Abbott Liberals”]
The trouble is Gillard is always saying “Labor”, as in “We are a Labor government, so we will deliver a Labor budget” and wtte.
She does that because she wants to drag the base back, and its not working.
I don’t think linking Abbott with the Liberals will work, but everything is worth a shot at this stage!
Q&A has become a pantomime not worthy of Punch and Judy.
[That’s the second time he’s said it in a week (also on radio in Adelaide) and Hockey said it last week briefly when talking about military spending.]
Pyne had a tanty on Insiders yesterday, apparently something about the PM abusing Abbott.
The chutzpah is remarkable from this man.
Who wants to be in the same place as George Pell, heaven or no heaven #qanda
bg @ 4960
Do you think this blog is about polling or something …
Damned I forgot to include Captain John broken jaw Sattler 😛
On RL I was always amused by Stan Jurd wandering around the ground – looked like he was going to pull out a spanner and fix the sprinklers!
Isn’t it Newspoll night?
C’mon Ghost….you know you want to…
🙂
[David J @ERN_Malleyscrub
Question to Pyne – Are BOAT PEOPLE smuggling tobacco into Australia to finance Assanges legal defense ? #qanda]
😆
Newspoll, 53/47
[CTar1
Posted Monday, April 16, 2012 at 10:27 pm | Permalink
bg @ 4960
Do you think this blog is about polling or something …]
No. I realise it is a group therapy session.
[Newspoll, 53/47]
Does this mean Shanahan might lay low again?
Centre:
Stop it.
😆
Centre, is that actually the result, are you being extremely stupid?
ABC is dramatising the Myall Creek massacre on Thursday night.
This to me is proof that the de-Howardisation of the board is finally starting to pay dividends.
bg – I’m relieved. I was hoping that confusion hadn’t set in.
Surely Centre is making a prediction there, and not the actual result?
GhostwhovotesLib – News Poll 60/40 🙂
William, I wanted to get Mod Libs reaction 😎
Well, instead you got my reaction, which is that you’re an idiot. Don’t do it again.
Bob Brown on QandA alone next week. Will he use this to bag Abbott and his Murdochian friends?
WOW, Bob Brown the lone Green on QandA next week.
Will there be any Red faces?
[Centre, is that actually the result, are you being extremely stupid?]
Bugger.
BK – Maybe I’ll watch again. Could be droll fun!
Oh William relax, have a beer.
[Centre
Posted Monday, April 16, 2012 at 10:36 pm | Permalink
William, I wanted to get Mod Libs reaction]
I am all grown up now Centre. I could take 53-47 in my stride.
Even if it was ALP ahead! 🙂
Would surprise me though!!!
Evening all. Inspired by Nicola’s Q+A appearance, time for a quick quiz ?
How many current ALP federal members or senators were so outstanding at law as to get jobs as High Court associates? How many Lib, Nat, whatever?
(by my count ALP 2, Nicola Roxon and Andrew Leigh, the rest zip.)
How many PhDs in law?
(ALP has Mike Kelly, no libs nats or others I can think of)
How many doctors of economics does each party have?
(ALP 2, Andrew Leigh again, plus Craig Emerson; Lib Nat Green whatever, zip)
How many QCs/SCs who didnt appoint themselves? (The Worlds Greatest Lawyer Brandis SC LP obviously ineligible, vs Mark Dreyfus QC MP ALP)
I realise this stuff isnt as weighty as Finn’s BISONS are or should be seen as being. But still and all.
ALP 012. Licence to sneer. Or something.
Oh, dear, Datsun? CantDo, cantdo, cantdo
[THE newly-elected Campbell Newman government has been rocked with the resignation of Police Minister David Gibson for allegedly driving without a licence.
Just ten days after being elevated to cabinet, the rising Liberal National Party star was forced to resign after it emerged he had been driving after his licence was suspended last November.
Mr Gibson, a former army officer and one-time general manager of the Gympie Times, north of Brisbane, tonight tendered his resignation when Mr Newman confronted him over the allegations.]
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/campbell-newman-government-hit-by-resignation-of-police-minister-david-gibson/story-fn59niix-1226328168026
It would be a fine thing if my signal did not fail, night after night.
Only ABC transmission.
So, looking at you, thank you for the info.
Centre, the dissemination of poll results is the one thing this site has reason to take seriously. Taking advantage of that to play pranks is moronic and pathetically unfunny. Tellingly, The Finnigans like doing it, which should be all the censure you need.
[THE newly-elected Campbell Newman government has been rocked with the resignation of Police Minister David Gibson for allegedly driving without a licence.]
You have got to be joking………….
[How many PhDs in law?
(ALP has Mike Kelly, no libs nats or others I can think of)]
Doesn’t George Brandis have a doctorate in law, or some such? He’s always been put forward by the opposition as the penultimate legal expert on whatever issue is occupying their sensibilities that day, so….
Centre, I’m sure I’m not the only one who would appreciate it if you heeded William’s word.
Thank you.
[I realise this stuff isnt as weighty as Finn’s BISONS are or should be seen as being. But still and all.]
Yes it is MM. Shows where the real brains are in the House.